NISS SAMSI 2013 O-Bayes MCMC MCMSki Chamonix Mont-Blanc ISBA Varanasi Efron Science Bayes Theo

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1 Statistical Research Vol. 30 No. 12 Dec * 250 刘乐平高磊卢志义 Thomas Bayes Richard Price 4 - An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances ISBA * Solvency II TJTJ LY Technology Review 1899 T 4 Richard Price Price 1758 Issac Newton Price Price Price

2 NISS SAMSI 2013 O-Bayes MCMC MCMSki Chamonix Mont-Blanc ISBA Varanasi Efron Science Bayes Theorem in the 21st Century Richard Price Thomas Bayes C A The Mysteries of Bayes Celebrating 250 Years of Bayes s Theorem Liu Leping Gao Lei Lu Zhiyi Abstract December is the 250 th anniversary of the date that Richard Price presented Thomas Bayes s famous paper at the conference of the Royal Society of London. A variety of activities will be held around the world to commemorate this important day for statistics. This article focused on the problem of Bayes 's birthday based on prior information on the network combined with literature of historical research about Bayesian evidence this article inference Bayes s birthday using Bayesian analysis and then discusses the well-known Bayes s portrait. This paper is to celebrate 250 years of Bayes s theorem. Key words Bayes s Theorem Bayesian Inference Bayes s Birthday Thomas Bayes An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances Richard Price ISBA International Society for Bayesian Analysis 250

3 famous accomplishment his notes were edited and 5 published after his death by Richard Price. International Workshop on Bayesian Model http / /en. wikipedia. org / Selection 1 James O. Berger 2 Susie J. Bayarri 20 5 http / / bayesian. org / 21 1 Encyclopaedia Britannica 250 Google http / /www britannica. com / bayes Thomas Bayes Bayes Thomas Tunbridge Wells Kent 1763 http / /www. britannica. com / http / /baike. baidu. com / Wikipedia Google bayes Thomas Andrews Bayes c April 1761 was an English mathematician and Presbyterian minister known for 1 19 having formulated a specific case of the theorem that 21 bears his name Bayes ' s theorem. Bayes never 80% published what would eventually become his most Google 18 Google

4 University of St Andrews Scotland http / /www-history. Pearson mcs. st-andrews. ac. uk /history /index. html Statistical Science Statistical Science Sheffield Richard Bayes Then and Now 14 1 Leather Lane Fisher Anderson 1941 Barnard 1958 Dale 1991a Edwards 1993 Hacking Holland 1962 Pearson 1978 Kentish Stanhope 1. Bayes Hallam Western Ontario University of Western Ontario David R. Bellhouse Joshua Bayes Joshua Bayes Wilson Philip Stanhope Dictionary of National 2nd Earl Biography Stephen and Lee Disenting Stanhope academy 1694 Disenting academy Stanhope Presbyterians 1706 Southwark Thomas David R. Bellhouse 2004

5 Bellhouse Anne nee Carpenter Nonconformist chapel Anne 7 Stephen M. Stigler Bellhouse Mary 76 John Anne Samuel Rebecca Nathaniel Edgeworth Jeffreys Savage de Finetti 1940 W. Edwards Leather Lane 1835 Deming 1958 George Southwark Thomas 1724 Barnard David Bellhouse 2004 Tunbridge Wells 1830 Elias Wordsworth Elias Wordsworth Elias Wordsworth Elias Wordsworth 20 Elias Wordsworth Bellhouse Sheffield St. Peter s Stigler Bellhouse Bellhouse 2004 Comment Bellhouse

6 Bellhouse Bellhouse Rejoinder 4 1 Bellhouse George Styan Styan The IMS Bulletin /4 3 /8 Stigler Stigler NORC 2001 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Stigler The History of Statistics. Stigler 1986 Stigler % Stigler Anne nee Carpenter Laslett Oosterveen 1973 Stigler Stigler Stigler Stigler Stigler David R. Bellhouse Stigler 9 10 David R. Bellhouse

7 Bayes Cotton 80% 1799 Holland 1962 Bellhouse 2004 Holland Bellhouse David R. Bellhouse Stephen M. Stigler O Donnell Bayes Cotton 1799 Dr. Williams Library. M Bellhouse D. R The Reverend Thomas Bayes FRS a biography to celebrate the tercentenary of his birth J. Statistical Science Bayes J J Philip Doddridge SBIES ASA-SBSS ISBA Simpson J Simpson 6. J Philip Doddridge 刘乐平, 男, 江西萍乡人,2003 年毕业于中国人民大学统计系, 获经济学博士学位, 现为天津财经大学统计系教授, 博士生导师研究方向为贝叶斯数据分析精算与风险管理高磊, 男,1989 年生, 山东宁津人, 天津财经大学统计系博士研究生研究方向为精算与风险管理卢志义, 男, 内蒙古包头人,2008 年毕业于天津财经大学统计系, 获经济学博士学位, 现为天津商业大学教师研究方向为最优保险精算与风险管理 O.. Donnell 1936 ( 责任编辑 : 程晞 )

Dictionary of National Biography

Dictionary of National Biography 32 3 2011 347 359 The Chinese Journal for the History of Science and Technology Vol. 32 No. 3 2011 100190 1001 1120 120 11 20 N092 A 1673-1441 2011 03-0347-13 J. Needham 1900 1995 1 287 1 2 R. K. Merton