不仅是中国的Netflix - 生态系统具优势；加入强力买入名单（摘要）

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1 216 年 6 月 22 日投资决策买入乐视网 (314.SZ) 潜在回报 : 52% 不仅是中国的 Netflix - 生态系统具优势 ; 加入强力买入名单 ( 摘要 ) 证券研究报告建议理由我们预计未来三年乐视网的付费订阅会员规模将从 6 万升至 2,4 万, 主要受益于公司丰富的内容储备和纵向整合硬件产品 215 年超级手机和超级电视销量分别达到 3 万部与市场观点不同的是, 我们预计 :1) 竞争将基于生态系统, 而非价格 ;2) 从 216 年开始, 货币化将在会员注册广告和附加值服务等方面为乐视网创造效益, 推动利润率上升我们因此重申对乐视网的买入评级并将其加入强力买入名单, 调整后的 12 个月目标价格为人民币 7.22 元, 隐含 52% 上行空间投资摘要低高增长回报 * 估值倍数波动性百分位 2th 4th 6th 8th 1th 乐视网 (314.SZ) 亚太消费品行业平均水平 * 回报 - 资本回报率投资摘要指标的全面描述请参见本报告的信息披露部分推动因素 (1) 会员增长强劲 : 受超级电视和超级手机等硬件产品销售加速的推动, 我们预计乐视网在线视频付费订阅会员数将从 215 年的 6 万年均复合增长 59% 至 218 年的 2,4 万, 占到视频服务行业付费用户数的 18% 左右相应地, 我们预计会员收入将从 215 年的人民币 27 亿元升至 218 年的 85 亿元, 成为推动未来几年增长的关键因素 (2) 利润率改善 : 随着超级电视销量规模继续扩大 ( 我们预计从 215 年的 3 万台升至 218 年的 95 万台 ), 该业务毛利率 ( 包括会员费和硬件销售收入 ) 于 215 年转为正值, 而且我们预计生产成本趋于下降将推动毛利率进一步扩张因此, 我们预计乐视网净利润率有望从 216 年的 5% 升至 218 年的 8% 主要数据当前股价 (Rmb) 个月目标价格 (Rmb) 7.22 市值 (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 38,947.1 / 5,92.1 外资持股比例 (%) -- 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 每股盈利 (Rmb) 新每股盈利调整幅度 (%). (5.3) (4.5).1 每股盈利增长 (%) (28.7) 每股摊薄盈利 (Rmb) 新市盈率 (X) 市净率 (X) EV/EBITDA(X) 股息收益率 (%) 净资产回报率 (%) CROCI(%) 估值我们将年每股盈利预测调整了 -5% 至 +3%, 以反映收入增长 / 利润率变化我们将 12 个月目标价格上调.7% 至人民币 7.22 元, 仍基于 39 倍的市盈率乘以 22 年预期每股盈利人民币 2.45 元 ( 原为 2.43 元 ), 并以 8% 的股权成本贴现回 216 年计算得出主要风险超级电视 / 超级手机销售低于预期 ; 硬件和内容成本高于预期股价走势图 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 * 全文翻译将随后提供所属投资名单亚太买入名单亚太强力买入名单行业评级 : 中性廖绪发, CFA ( 分析师 ) 执业证书编号 : S (21) xufa.liao@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司戴晔 ( 研究助理 ) +86(21) brian.dai@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司乐视网 ( 左轴 ) 沪深 3 指数 ( 右轴 ) 股价表现 (%) 3 个月 6 个月 12 个月绝对 (21.3) (21.3) (15.9) 相对于沪深 3 指数 (17.6) (2.) 25.6 资料来源 : 公司数据高盛研究预测 FactSet( 股价为 6/21/216 收盘价 ) 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系, 并且继续寻求发展这些关系因此, 投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突, 不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息, 见信息披露附录, 或请与您的投资代表联系北京高华证券有限责任公司投资研究

2 乐视网 : 财务数据概要损益表 (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 资产负债表 (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 主营业务收入 13, , , ,656.1 现金及等价物 2, ,694. 1, ,523.2 主营业务成本 (11,112.) (18,243.6) (23,536.3) (27,611.2) 应收账款 4, , , ,343.3 销售一般及管理费用 (1,444.9) (2,349.5) (3,44.8) (3,6.4) 存货 1, , , ,829.7 研发费用 (1,224.1) (1,918.7) (2,42.5) (2,739.3) 其它流动资产其它营业收入 /( 支出 ) (12.2)... 流动资产 9, , , ,698.1 EBITDA 1,98.3 3, , ,17. 固定资产净额折旧和摊销 (1,64.6) (2,463.9) (3,534.1) (4,725.5) 无形资产净额 6,51.6 6,54.8 7,48.8 7,619.9 EBIT ,5.6 3,444.5 长期投资利息收入其它长期资产 1,19.9 1, , ,247.3 财务费用 (37.4) (249.7) (251.) (252.4) 资产合计 16, , , ,354.5 联营公司其它应付账款 5, , , ,347.1 税前利润 ,823. 3,263.3 短期贷款 1,735. 1,735. 1,735. 1,735. 所得税 (31.3) (72.9) (13.5) 其它流动负债少数股东损益 (37.4) (278.2) 流动负债 7, , , ,49. 长期贷款 2,2.6 2,2.6 2,2.6 2,2.6 优先股股息前净利润 , ,854.7 其它长期负债 3, , , ,513.9 优先股息.... 长期负债 5, , , ,714.5 非经常性项目前净利润 , ,854.7 负债合计 13, , , ,123.5 税后非经常性损益.... 净利润 , ,854.7 优先股.... 普通股权益 3, , , ,259.7 每股基本盈利 ( 非经常性项目前 )(Rmb) 少数股东权益 (112.5) (344.3) (36.8) (28.6) 每股基本盈利 ( 非经常性项目后 )(Rmb) 每股摊薄盈利 ( 非经常性项目后 )(Rmb) 负债及股东权益合计 16, , , ,354.5 每股股息 (Rmb) 股息支付率 (%) 每股净资产 (Rmb) 自由现金流收益率 (%) (2.2) (1.1).4 2. 增长率和利润率 (%) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 比率 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 主营业务收入增长率 CROCI(%) EBITDA 增长率净资产回报率 (%) EBIT 增长率总资产回报率 (%) 净利润增长率平均运用资本回报率 (%) 每股盈利增长 (28.7) 存货周转天数毛利率应收账款周转天数 EBITDA 利润率应付账款周转天数 EBIT 利润率净负债 / 股东权益 (%) EBIT 利息保障倍数 (X) 现金流量表 (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 估值 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 优先股股息前净利润 , ,854.7 折旧及摊销 1,64.6 2, , ,725.5 基本市盈率 (X) 少数股东权益 (355.9) (231.7) 市净率 (X) 运营资本增减 (1,75.) (1,574.1) (874.2) (94.7) EV/EBITDA(X) 其它企业价值 / 总投资现金 (X) 经营活动产生的现金流 ,41.4 4,52.3 7,63.9 股息收益率 (%) 资本开支 (2,89.3) (3,19.7) (4,147.5) (5,337.8) 收购.... 剥离.... 其它 (175.4)... 投资活动产生的现金流 (2,984.8) (3,19.7) (4,147.5) (5,337.8) 支付股息的现金 ( 普通股和优先股 ) (38.7) (57.5) (98.5) (171.3) 借款增减 2, 普通股发行 ( 回购 ) 其它 1, 筹资活动产生的现金流 4,365.3 (57.5) (98.5) (171.3) 总现金流 2,256.3 (1,35.8) ,554.8 注 : 最后一个实际年度数据可能包括已公布和预测数据资料来源 : 公司数据高盛研究预测对此报告有贡献的人员廖绪发, CFA xufa.liao@ghsl.cn 戴晔 brian.dai@ghsl.cn 全球投资研究 2

3 Growth in terminal sales, membership fees to boost margins Higher hardware sales to drive membership revenue One of LeTV s key strategies is to acquire users/subscribers/members through low-priced hardware including smart TVs and mobile phones. Launched in July 213, smart TV sales have reached more than 7mn units to date. In April 216, SuperTV (the smart TV brand under LeTV) sold 71k units, grabbing a 19% market share in China and became the market leader for the first time, according to avc-mr.com, a TV industry monitoring website. We raise our 216 full year sales volume forecast of SuperTV from 5.5mn to 6mn, and expect it to reach 9.5mn in 218, with market share in China expanding from 7% in 215 to 2+ in 22 (the current market leader Skyworth has a 2 share in China). LeTV also launched its self-branded SuperPhone in April 215, which sold more than 3mn units in 215 and more than 6mn YTD. We raise our SuperPhone sales forecast from 1mn units in 216 to 15mn units, and expect this number to hit 3mn in 218E, with market share up to 7%, driven by attractive pricing and strong ecosystem advantages. 图表 1: We forecast 6mn SuperTV sales volume SuperTV sales volume and yoy growth 图表 2: and 15mn for SuperPhone in 216 SuperPhone sales volume and yoy growth Super TV sales volume (') yoy SuperPhone sales volume (') yoy 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, E 217E 218E 219E 22E , 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, E 217E 218E 219E 22E 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% We believe the sharp rise in hardware sales will accelerate subscriber growth and expect LeTV s total subscribers to reach c.24mn in 218 from 6mn in 215, representing a CAGR of 59% in E. SuperTV subscribers: We forecast 6mn/8mn/9.5mn sales volume in 216/17/18, and the accumulated SuperTV sales volume to reach 28mn in 218. However, as the company books all subscription fees bundling with hardware when it s sold in the first year, we only count the current year s payment from consumers for the video service as subscription fees and count the consumers as subscribers. For those who renew the video service contract after its expiry one or two years later, we also count them as subscribers. Given that current competition remains very tough on the smart TV content platforms, we only assume 12%- 14% renewal rate for 216E-18E. Accordingly, we forecast the subscribers of SuperTV to reach 12.5mn in 218. 全球投资研究 3

4 SuperPhone subscribers: We forecast 15mn/22mn/3mn sales volume in 216/17/18. For mobile members, more than 5 of SuperPhone users have chosen bundled membership and the membership fee is Rmb49 (and could include a Rmb3 deduction off the cost of hardware), according to the company s research institute. However, we conservatively assume these mobile users will not extend their subscription following the two-year period, and we only assume 31%-35% bundled membership for SuperPhone in considering the large and growing user base may drag down the bundling ratio. For each subscriber who pay Rmb49 for a one year contract, Rmb3 would be deducted off the hardware price, and LeTV (the listco) could share about Rmb95 in the first year as membership revenue. As such, we forecast 525k/726k/93k SuperPhone subscribers in 216E-18E, and Rmb515mn/Rmb711mn/Rmb911mn membership revenue from SuperPhone subscription. Given that the incremental cost from LeTV (the listco) is very low (mainly the content delivery network (CDN) cost), this service could improve LeTV s margins remarkably. Besides, we believe two recent deals will also help to strengthen the ecosystem for its video service by bringing in more potential smarttv/smartphone users. On December 11, 215, LeTV announced it would invest HK$2.27bn in TCL Multimedia (17.HK, Not Covered), accounting for 2.1% of TCL post deal and becoming its secondlargest shareholder. TCL is one of the world s largest TV producers and distributors, with 5.7%/14.9% market shares in the worldwide/domestic TV markets (1H15, according to IHS). Through this deal, LeTV could gain access to the huge user base of TCL (9.1mn activated smart TV users as of 1H15), and improve its user experience by offering a comprehensive content platform. In the future, this huge user base could provide enormous opportunity for monetization, in terms of advertising, membership fees and other value-added services. On July 17, 216, LeEco (the parent co of LeTV) announced it has increased its equity stake in Coolpad (2369.HK, Not Covered) from 17.9% to 28.9% at a price of HK$1bn, becoming the biggest shareholder of Coolpad. According to LeEco, this deal could make it the fourth largest smartphone maker in China, reaching 5-6mn sales volume if combining Coolpad and SuperPhone. 图表 3: We forecast 24mn total subscribers Number of members by segment 图表 4: and Rmb8.4bn subscription revenue in 218E Membership revenue by segment (') 4, (Rmb mn) 12, E CAGR=59% 1, 8, E CAGR=46% 6, 4, 2, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, E 217E 218E 219E 22E E 217E 218E 219E 22E SuperTV Subs SuperPhone Subs Others SuperTV SuperPhone Other Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research. Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research. 全球投资研究 4

5 SuperTV business to turn profitable at GP level As the product cost continues to drop significantly, and the percentage of non-hardware revenue (membership revenue) increases, the SuperTV business as a whole (combining hardware revenue and membership revenue) turned profitable at the gross profit level in 215 for the first time, and we expect it to further turn profitable at the net profit level in 216. 图表 5: Subscription and hardware revenues from SuperTV are both increasing Revenue structure of SuperTV 图表 6: SuperTV gross margin turned positive in 215 SuperTV gross and net margins (Rmb mn) Hardware revenue Membership revenue SuperTV gross margin SuperTV net margin 3, 2 25, 15% 2, 15, 1, 1 5% -5% 5, E 217E 218E 219E 22E -15% E 217E 218E 219E 22E Growing user base to boost advertising revenue Underpinned by the fast-growing user base, we expect LeTV s advertising revenue to continue to outpace industry growth, with a CAGR of 45% in E to reach Rmb8,126mn, compared with the industry average of 33%. In line with this, we expect LeTV s market share in online video advertising to rise from 12% to 15% over the same period. 图表 7: We expect LeTV to gain share in online video advertising LeTV s market share in online video advertising 图表 8: as ad revenue growth outpaces industry Growth of online video advertising revenue, yoy 16% 12 14% 12% % 6 6% 4% 2% E 217E 218E E 217E LeTV market share in online video advertising Leshi Video industry Expanding content library to lock in members We expect LeTV to maintain its high investment in content at 2-22% of non-hardware revenue, from Rmb1.8bn in 215 to Rmb4.9bn in 218E. If we were to combine with LeSports (LeTV owns about 9% stake) content cost, it would be more than Rmb4bn in 216E, comparable to other 全球投资研究 5

6 leading peers such as iqiyi and Tencent Video. The steady investment in content enables the company to provide members with a comprehensive and updated content library to maximize members satisfaction and attract more members. 图表 9: We expect content cost to rise steadily over the next few years Content cost and as a % of non-hardware revenue 图表 1: and the same goes for cash investment in content Cash investment in content and yoy growth Content cost (Rmb mn) as % of non-hardware revenue Cash investment in content (Rmb mn) yoy 35% 8, , % 2 15% 1 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, % 1, E 217E 218E 219E 22E E 217E 218E 219E 22E Margins to be boosted by non-hardware revenue With growth in non-hardware revenue potentially accelerating, we expect LeTV s GP margin to gradually pick up from 216E, leading to faster bottom-line growth (59% yoy) than top-line growth (3 yoy) in 218E. As a result, we expect its NP margin to expand from 5% in 215 to 1 in 218E. 图表 11: Non-hardware revenues accelerating LeTV s revenue from hardware and non-hardware 图表 12: thereby boosting GP margins GP margin and % of revenue from non-hardware (Rmb mn) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, E 217E 218E revenue from non-hardware revenue from hardware % 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% E 217E 218E % of revenue from non-hardware (Left) GP margin (Right) 全球投资研究 6

7 Vertically integrated ecosystem to shield LeTV from price competition We believe the monetization of internet TV will become a key driver of growth for LeTV over the next three years. The market consensus is that other players including smart TV makers, online video companies and IT manufacturers will make it difficult for LeTV to gain users through lowpriced hardware. However, we believe smart TVs will compete on ecosystem instead of price, with LeTV benefiting from its leading vertically integrated model of platform + content + terminal + application. Furthermore, we believe internet TV will start to see deeper monetization through advertising, online games, etc., from 216, and LeTV is well positioned to benefit from this trend through the rise in subscription growth, advertising revenue, and value-added services. We expect subscription and advertising revenue to grow 89%/52% in 216E, and revenue from nonhardware will account for 52%+ of total revenue. 图表 13: LeTV s ecosystem LeTV Store Web Browser Video searching Content producing (Huaer+Levp+PGC) Content operating (exclusive broadcasting and distribution) Application Content Platform Terminal Ecommerce platform Cloud service platform Advertising platform Big data platform Smart terminal (SuperTV+Super Phone) LeTV UI Accessories 资料来源 : Company data. We believe LeTV s ecosystem strategy is different from Netflix s strategy, which relies primarily on a rich content library, and resembles more of Amazon s ecosystem strategy. Amazon s membership Amazon Prime costs US$99/year, and provides subscribers the rights to enjoy free shipping of products purchased on Amazon.com, free access to video content and online music, and free borrowing of a Kindle e-book every month. According to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) estimates, Amazon Prime subscribers reached 54mn in early 216, or about 4 penetration of the total US households. 图表 14: Amazon s membership ecosystem Free music streaming Free access to video Free borrowing of Kindle e book Free shipping $99/year or $1.99/month Amazon Prime 资料来源 : Company data. 全球投资研究 7

8 Financial forecasts and valuation We revise our 216E-22E EPS by -5.3% to +3.3% to reflect mixed revenue growth and margin changes. As a result, our 12-month target price inches up.7% to Rmb7.22 (still based on 39X P/E applied to 22E EPS, and discounted to 216E using a COE of 8%). 图表 15: Income statement of LeTV Rmb mn E 217E 218E 219E 22E Total revenue 2,361 6,819 13,17 21,548 28,587 34,656 39,593 46,91 yoy 12% 189% 91% 66% 33% 21% 14% 16% Membership & distribution 1,18 2,422 3,782 6,216 8,176 9,664 1,84 12,268 Membership revenue 393 1,526 2,71 5,128 7,41 8,475 9,553 1,946 Online video distribution Movie & TV drama distribution Advertising Revenue 839 1,572 2,634 4,3 5,85 8,126 1,564 13,26 Other , 1,5 2,1 2,73 3,276 Hardware Revenue 54 2,74 6,89 1,329 13,16 14,766 15,494 17,341 Total COGS 1,669 5,828 11,112 18,244 23,536 27,611 3,79 35,552 Depreciation Amortization of content cost ,43 2,266 3,264 4,379 5,568 6,86 Hardware cost 688 4,92 8,186 13,634 17,13 19,122 19,91 22,11 TV Drama Studio Other ,287 2,22 2,782 3,644 4,67 5,963 Gross profit ,95 3,35 5,5 7,45 8,883 1,539 yoy 43% 43% 92% 73% 53% 39% 26% 19% Gross margin 29.3% 14.5% 14.6% 15.3% 17.7% 2.3% 22.4% 22.9% Sales tax and add-on as % of revenue 1.1%.8%.7%.6%.5%.5%.6%.6% Sales expense ,41 1,73 2,152 2,461 2,732 3,88 as % of revenue 8.2% 7.2% % 7.1% 6.9% 6.7% Administrative expense ,168 1,452 as % of revenue 3.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% % Net financial expenses Impairment losses on PP&E Investment gains/loss (1) Other non-operating income Other non-operating expense (1) (3) (4) Pre-tax profit (income before tax) ,823 3,263 4,583 5,566 Income taxes 14 (56) (143) Net income ,75 3,133 4,4 5,344 Minority interests (23) (235) (356) (232) Net income attributable to parent ,713 2,855 3,834 4,546 yoy 31% 43% 57% 72% 74% 67% 34% 19% Net margin 11% 5% 4% 5% 6% 8% 1 1 EPS - basic (Rmb) We cross-check with P/E. LeTV s average forward P/E was 65X over the past three years. Our 12-month target price of Rmb7.22 implies a 217E P/E of 76X while the stock is trading at a 217E P/E of 52X. We believe this high multiple is justified by the company s better growth potential (71% E EPS CAGR vs. our coverage average of 33%; LeTV s EPS CAGR is the highest in our coverage). 全球投资研究 8

9 图表 16: Historical forward P/E average level is 65X LeTV historical rolling 12-month forward P/E Avg= 资料来源 : Bloomberg. We also cross-check with sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) given that LeTV has a diversified business model and various strategic investments. Based on the SOTP method, we derive an implied total valuation of Rmb12bn; this is in line with our primary long-term P/E discount methodology (Rmb129bn). 图表 17: The SOTP method suggests an implied total equity value of Rmb12bn SOTP theoretical valuation table Valuation_SOTP Valuation (Rmb bn) Note Benchmark Subscription 8 34mn subscribers in 22, USD5 per subs, discount back to 216 with 8% COE Netflix Non-subscription business 3 85% of Youku Youku Other business and investments 1 LeCloud 3 5 stake of the total valuation of LeCloud at Rmb6bn Round A financing Hua'er 5 1 stake, Rmb5bn Huace (3133.SZ) LeSports 2 9% stake of its recent financing valuation at Rmb21.5bn Round B financing Sum of the parts valuation 12 资料来源 : Gao Hua Securities Research. Paying membership: Rmb8bn We believe the most comparable company for LeTV s paying membership business is Netflix, which only applies the single business model of monthly subscription fees ranging from US$7.99- US$9.99 per month. As of end 215, Netflix had 79.6mn subscribers and an annual ARPU of US$94. Over the past three months, Netflix was trading at an average market cap of US$4bn, implying US$5 value per subscriber. Currently, Netflix s subscribers/revenue is growing at 25%-3 yoy. In 215, Netflix s EBITDA margin and reported NP margin was 5.4% and 1.8% respectively. 全球投资研究 9

10 According to our estimate, by the end of 218/2, the number of paying subscribers for LeTV will reach 24mn and 34mn respectively, with an annual ARPU of about Rmb32 (US$5). Although LeTV s ARPU is lower than Netflix, given that we do not consider the potential new revenue from other monetization (which is very different from Netflix s single business model) such as games, education, e-commerce, application download revenue sharing, we believe the value per subscriber could be closer to the level of Netflix. Hence, we apply a US$5 value per subscriber to LeTV s paying subscribers, and yield an implied valuation of Rmb11bn in 22. Discounting it to 216E using a COE of 8% (in line with our primary valuation methodology), we derive an implied valuation of Rmb8bn for the paying membership business. Non-paying users: Rmb3bn We believe the most comparable company is Youku. Before its privatization, Youku s market cap was c.us$5.4bn. In 215, LeTV s advertising revenue was Rmb2.7bn, and we expect it to grow to Rmb4bn in 216, which is equal to 85% of Youku s advertising revenue in 215 (c.rmb4.8bn). Hence, we apply 85% of Youku s market cap before privatization to value LeTV s non-paying business, and arrive at an implied valuation of c.rmb3bn. Other business and investments: Rmb1bn Other business and investments include three main parts, which if combined, could have an implied value of Rmb1bn. (1) Lecloud. On March 3, 216, LeTV announced that its Lecloud subsidiary completed its round- A financing, valuing the company at Rmb6bn. Post financing, LeTV s stake in Lecloud dropped to 5 from 6. In 215, Lecloud realized c.rmb565mn revenue and grew at 33 yoy. We value the cloud business to LeTV according to the recent round-a financing, at Rmb3bn. (2) Hua er Entertainment. Hua er is one of the top quality drama makers in China and is 1 owned by LeTV. In 215, Hua er realized Rmb511mn revenue and Rmn13mn net profit. Compared to the leading TV drama company Huace (3133.SS, Neutral, June 21 close Rmb14.6), with a market cap of Rmb25bn+ and revenue/net profit of Rmb2.6bn/Rmb475mn in 215, Hua er s size is about 2 of Huace. As such, we apply 2 of Huace s market cap to value Hua er, which would imply Rmb5bn. (3) LeSports. On April 2, 216, LeSports announced the completion of its round-b financing, valuing the company at Rmb21.5bn. Post financing, we calculate that LeTV s stake in LeSports dropped to about 9%. Hence, we apply 9% of Rmb21.5bn to arrive at an implied valuation of c.rmb2bn for LeTV s stake in LeSports. 全球投资研究 1

11 信息披露附录申明本人, 廖绪发, CFA, 在此申明, 本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法此外, 本人薪金的任何部分不曾与, 不与, 也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关投资摘要投资摘要部分通过将一只股票的主要指标与其行业和市场相比较来评价该股的投资环境所描述的四个主要指标包括增长回报估值倍数和波动性增长回报和估值倍数都是运用数种方法综合计算而成, 以确定该股在地区研究行业内所处的百分位排名每项指标的准确计算方式可能随着财务年度行业和所属地区的不同而有所变化, 但标准方法如下 : 增长是下一年预测与当前年度预测的综合比较, 如每股盈利 EBITDA 和收入等回报是各项资本回报指标一年预测的加总, 如 CROCI 平均运用资本回报率和净资产回报率估值倍数根据一年预期估值比率综合计算, 如市盈率股息收益率 EV/FCF EV/EBITDA EV/DACF 市净率波动性根据 12 个月的历史波动性计算并经股息调整 Quantum Quantum 是提供具体财务报表数据历史预测和比率的高盛专有数据库, 它可以用于对单一公司的深入分析, 或在不同行业和市场的公司之间进行比较 GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN 是侧重于长期做多建议的相对稳定的全球投资策略 GS SUSTAIN 关注名单涵盖了我们认为相对于全球同业具有持续竞争优势和出色的资本回报因而有望在长期内表现出色的行业领军企业我们对领军企业的筛选基于对以下三方面的量化分析 : 现金投资的现金回报行业地位和管理水平 ( 公司管理层对行业面临的环境社会和企业治理方面管理的有效性 ) 信息披露相关的股票研究范围廖绪发, CFA: 中国传媒业中国食品及饮料行业中国食品及饮料行业 : 古井贡酒洋河股份贵州茅台泸州老窖青青稞酒山西汾酒五粮液中国传媒业 : 奥飞娱乐光线传媒歌华有线华录百纳蓝色光标中南传媒省广股份华谊兄弟 IMAX 中国凤凰传媒乐视网东方明珠掌趣科技万达院线华策影视与公司有关的法定披露以下信息披露了高盛高华证券有限责任公司 ( 高盛高华 ) 与北京高华证券有限责任公司 ( 高华证券 ) 投资研究部所研究的并在本研究报告中提及的公司之间的关系没有对下述公司的具体信息披露 : 乐视网 (Rmb47.) 公司评级研究行业及评级和相关定义买入中性卖出 : 分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决定任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评级每个地区投资评估委员会根据 25-35% 的股票评级为买入 1-15% 的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来管理该地区的投资名单 ; 但是, 在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同地区强力买入或卖出名单是以潜在回报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议潜在回报 : 代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格潜在回报目标价格及相关时间范围在每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中都有注明研究行业及评级 : 分析师给出下列评级中的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及 / 或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法具吸引力 (A): 未来 12 个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值中性 (N): 未来 12 个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值持平谨慎 (C): 未来 12 个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值暂无评级 (NR): 在高盛高华于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下, 投资评级和目标价格已经根据高华证券的政策予以除去暂停评级 (RS): 由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标, 或在发表报告方面存在法律监管或政策的限制, 我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价格目标此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标 ( 如有的话 ) 将不再有效, 因此投资者不应依赖该等资料暂停研究 (CS): 我们已经暂停对该公司的研究没有研究 (NC): 我们没有对该公司进行研究不存在或不适用 (NA): 此资料不存在或不适用无意义 (NM): 此资料无意义, 因此不包括在报告内一般披露本报告在中国由高华证券分发高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用除了与高盛相关的披露, 本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息, 但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性, 客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的报告中的信息观点估算和预测均截至报告的发表日, 且可能在不事先通知的情况下进行调整我们会适时地更新我们的研究, 但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外, 绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构, 从事投资银行业务高华证券高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系我们的销售人员交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略我们的资产管理部门自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策全球投资研究 11

12 本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论, 或在本报告中讨论交易策略, 其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件, 该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评级, 此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力高华证券及其关联机构高级职员董事和雇员, 不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师, 将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸, 担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手, 或买卖上述证券或衍生工具在高盛组织的会议上的第三方演讲嘉宾 ( 包括高华证券或高盛其它部门人员 ) 的观点不一定反映全球投资研究部的观点, 也并非高华证券或高盛的正式观点在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区, 本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约本报告不构成个人投资建议, 也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需求客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况, 以及 ( 若有必要 ) 寻求专家的意见, 包括税务意见本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动过去的表现并不代表未来的表现, 未来的回报也无法保证, 投资者可能会损失本金某些交易, 包括牵涉期货期权和其它衍生工具的交易, 有很大的风险, 因此并不适合所有投资者外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过取得当前的期权披露文件对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品, 例如, 期权差价结构产品, 其交易成本可能较高与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在高华客户网上并向所有客户同步提供高华未授权任何第三方整合者转发其研究报告有关某特定证券的研究报告模型或其它数据, 请联络您的销售代表北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 216 年未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意, 本材料的任何部分均不得 (i) 以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝复印件或复制品, 或 (ii) 再次分发全球投资研究 12

中南传媒 : 财务数据概要损益表 (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 资产负债表 (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 主营业务收入 10, , , ,026.5 现金及等价物 10,8

中南传媒 : 财务数据概要损益表 (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 资产负债表 (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 主营业务收入 10, , , ,026.5 现金及等价物 10,8 2016 年 4 月 26 日业绩分析中南传媒 (601098.SS) 买入业绩符合预期 : 产品均价上涨推动收入稳健增长证券研究报告与预测不一致的方面中南传媒公布 2015 收入 / 净利润分别为人民币 101 亿元 /17 亿元, 同比增长 11.6%/15.4%, 符合我们的预测投资影响 (1) 出版业务收入为人民币 25.48 亿元, 同比增长 10%, 其中教材教辅类收入增长 13%(