Company Research 24 Sep 2013 Prada S.P.A(1913.HK) Steady performance Prada reported a 16.1% growth in EBIT to EUR458m and 7.6% increase in net profit to EUR308m in FY1H14. The inconsistence was due to a higher effective tax rate. Core business continued to perform well with GPM improved further to 73.4%. We expect FY2H14 will perform no worse than FY1H14. Our new TP of HK$85.29 is based on 12.41% three-year EPS CAGR and 31x PE for FY2014E. Maintain BUY Net profit grew slower than revenue due to tax effect. For the six months ended 31 st July 2013, Prada reported EUR1,728m in revenue and EUR458m in EBIT, up 11.7% and 16.1% yoy, respectively. However, the higher effective tax rate of 29.5% in FY1H14 compared with 26.2% in FY2013 led to a lower 7.6% growth in net profit to EUR308m or an EPS of EUR0.12. GPM improved by close to 2 percentage points. GPM improved from 71.5% to 73.4% due to 1) product mix shift to leather goods; 2) ASP hikes in Europe and Japan; and 3) increased in retail and decreased in wholesale business which will continue in FY2H14, especially in Europe and America. Moreover, promotion reduction was another factor that improved GPM. We expect GPM to reach 73.5% for the full year. Store expansion plan continues. SSSG slowed slightly to 7% in Q2 from 8% in Q1, which was strong given the high base (21%) in Q2FY13. We are confident SSSG of more than 7% for the full-year given a relatively low base in FY2H13. Prada added 30 new stores in FY1H14, (Prada: 18; Miu Miu: 7; others: 5) raising the total number to 491 stores as of 31 st July 2013. Given the positive momentum, the company is expected to maintain its 75-80 new store opening plan for FY2014 with focus mainly in China. Miu Miu on the rise. Prada has been the most popular brand, accounting for more than 80% of total revenue V.S. Miu Miu s 15.3% in FY1H14. However, all categories under Miu Miu brand had achieved positive growth rate. Looking forward, Miu Miu is expected to gain popularity along with its rising brand value. Analyst BUY Target Price: HK$85.29 Stephy Wang SFC CE No.:AYC366 00852-2899 3123 stephy.wong@guosen.com.hk Performance 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: Bloomberg Key Data Luxury Goods 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0 0.00 2012/9/24 2013/9/24 HKI 1913.HK Price(HK$) 74.30 Shares Outstanding (m) 2,559 Market Cap. (HK$ b) 190 Free float (%) 20% Average Daily Turnover HK$48m 52 Week Range 84.75/56.7 Controlling Shareholder Prada Holding B.V. (80%) BVPS (EUR$) 0.91 Debt ratio (%) 5.2 Raise TP to HK$85.29, maintain BUY. We expect to see improvements on the back of global economy recovery and robust Chinese travelers to overseas. We raise our TP to HK$85.29 which is based on 12.41% three-year EPS CAGR and 31x PE for FY2014. This represents a 15% upside potential. Maintain BUY rating. Financial Summary Year to Jan. 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue (EUR$ m) 2,556 3,297 3,630 4,049 4,503 Operating Profit (EUR$ m) 629 890 973 1,101 1,256 Reported Profit (EUR$ m) 432 626 684 777 890 Underlying Profit (EUR$ m) 432 626 684 777 890 Underlying EPS (EUR$) 0.17 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.35 DPS (EUR$) 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.14 BVPS (EUR$) 0.72 0.91 1.06 1.21 1.37 P/E (x) 41.70 29.05 26.57 23.40 20.42 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% P/B (x) 9.84 7.80 6.71 5.87 5.17 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1
公司报告 普拉达 (1913.HK) 业绩平稳 普拉达 (1913.HK) 公布了 2014 财年中期业绩,EBIT 和净利润分别同比增长 16.1% 和 7.6%, 至 4.58 亿欧元和 3.08 亿欧元, 增长的不一致主要由于有效税率的提升 核心业务表现持续良好, 毛利率进一步提升至 73.4%, 我们预计下半财年的表现将会优于上半财年 基于 EPS 未来三年 12.41% 的年复合增长率以及 31 倍的预期 PE, 我们调升目标价至 85.29 港元, 维持 买入 评级 净利润增长低于收入增长. 截止 2013 年 7 月 31 日止的六个月, 普拉达的收入和 EBIT 分别同比增长 11.7% 和 16.1%, 至 17.28 亿欧元和 4.58 亿欧元 而由于有效税率的增加 (1H14: 29.5%; 1H13: 26.2%), 使得净利润仅增长 7.6% 至 3.08 亿欧元, 即每股收益 0.12 欧元 中期不派息 毛利率同比提升近 2 个百分点. 回顾期内, 毛利率由去年同期的 71.5 增至 73.4%, 主要由于 :1) 产品结构的变化, 皮具产品的占比更大 ;2) 欧洲和日本市场的平均零售单价的上涨 ;3) 增加总体零售业务的占比, 同时减少欧洲和美国市场的批发业务占比 此外, 打折活动的减少也有利于提高整体毛利率水平 我们预计 2014 财年的总体毛利率将达 73.5% 全年的门店扩张计划维持不变. 虽然同店销售增长率由 2014 财年第一季度的 8% 放缓至第二季度的 7%, 但相对于 2013 财年第二季度的较高基数 (SSSG: 21%), 依然较为理想, 并且我们相信全年的同店销售增长率将高于 7% 回顾期内, 公司新增了 30 间店铺, 其中包括 18 家 Prada 品牌店,7 间 Miu Miu 品牌店和 5 间其它品牌店, 目前全球的店铺总数达 491 家 下半年将加快开店步伐, 我们维持全年新增 75-80 间店铺的目标不变, 预计大部分将会开设在中国大陆地区 Miu Miu 处于成长期. Prada 一直是公司最畅销的品牌, 回顾期内其收入占比超过 80%, 而 Miu Miu 则维持在 15% 左右, 但 Miu Miu 旗下所有品类都实现了正增长, 且成衣系列增长快于 Prada. Miu Miu 的品牌建立仍需要时间, 我们相信 Miu Miu 的未来只会越来越好 目标价提升至 85.29 港元, 维持 买入 评级. 我们预期随着全球经济的回暖和中国境外旅客的复苏, 公司的经营状况将会得到改善 基于 EPS 未来三年 12.41% 的年复合增长率以及 31 倍的预期 PE, 我们调升目标价至 85.29 港元, 维持 买入 评级 分析师 买入 目标价 : HK$85.29 王奕旻证监会中央编号 :.:AYC366 00852-2899 3123 stephy.wong@guosen.com.hk 股价表现 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 资料来源 : 彭博 股票数据 高端消费品 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0 0.00 2012/9/24 2013/9/24 HKI 1913.HK 收盘价 ( 港币 $) 74.30 流通股本 ( 百万 ) 2,559 总市值 ( 港币亿 ) 1901 流通率 (%) 20% 日均成交额 HK$48m 52 周最高 / 最低 84.75/56.7 主要控股股东 Prada Holding B.V. (80%)) 每股净资产 ( 欧元 $) 0.91 负债率 (%) 5.2 盈利预测 截至 31/1 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 营业额 ( 欧元百万 ) 2,556 3,297 3,630 4,049 4,503 经营盈利 ( 欧元百万 ) 629 890 973 1,101 1,256 账面盈利 ( 欧元百万 ) 432 626 684 777 890 实际盈利 ( 欧元百万 ) 432 626 684 777 890 每股实际盈利 ( 欧元 ) 0.17 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.35 每股股息 ( 欧元 ) 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.14 每股账面价值 ( 欧元 ) 0.72 0.91 1.06 1.21 1.37 市盈率 (x) 41.70 29.05 26.57 23.40 20.42 股息率 (%) 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 市净率 (x) 9.84 7.80 6.71 5.87 5.17 资料来源 :
Financial Summary Profit & Loss (EU$ m) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Financial Ratios 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E DOS & wholesale 2,523 3,256 3,594 4,015 4,471 Revenue growth (%) 24.9% 29.0% 10.1% 11.5% 11.2% Royalties 33 41 36 34 32 Operating profit growth (%) 50.3% 41.5% 9.3% 13.2% 14.1% Reported profit growth (%) 72.2% 44.9% 9.3% 13.6% 14.6% Underlying profit growth (%) 72.2% 44.9% 9.3% 13.6% 14.6% Revenue 2,556 3,297 3,630 4,049 4,503 Underlying EPS growth (%) 69.8% 43.6% 9.3% 13.6% 14.6% Cost of sales (728) (921) (962) (1,065) (1,162) Dividend growth (%) - 80.0% 18.8% 13.6% 14.6% Gross profit 1,828 2,377 2,668 2,984 3,341 Dividend payout (%) 29.4% 36.8% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% Operating expenses (1,199) (1,487) (1,695) (1,883) (2,085) Gross profit margin (%) 71.5% 72.1% 73.5% 73.7% 74.2% EBIT 629 890 973 1,101 1,256 Operating profit margin (%) 24.6% 27.0% 26.8% 27.2% 27.9% Other income (37) (32) (30) (26) (6) Underlying profit margin (%) 16.9% 19.0% 18.8% 19.2% 19.8% Finance costs 0 0 0 0 0 ROE (%) 23.6% 26.8% 25.2% 25.1% 25.3% Finance expenses 0 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 14.7% 18.5% 17.7% 17.7% 17.9% Associates & JCE 0 0 0 0 0 Net debt/equity (%) 41.0% 20.7% 16.7% 9.3% 3.1% Profit before taxation 603 884 970 1,103 1,264 Net debt/total assets (%) 25.5% 14.3% 11.7% 6.6% 2.2% Taxation (166) (250) (276) (314) (360) Current ratio (%) 155.9% 187.0% 229.4% 244.8% 251.8% Non-controlling interests 4 8 10 12 14 Interest cover (x) 37.3x 84.2x 70.1x 68.8x 66.3x Net profit 432 626 684 777 890 Dividend cover (x) 3.4x 2.7x 2.5x 2.5x 2.5x Balance Sheet (EU$ m) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cash Flows (EU$ m) 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Fixed assets 714 857 1,006 1,128 1,224 Operating profit 603 884 970 1,103 1,264 Associates & JCE 16 23 23 23 23 Depreciation & amortization 126 155 175 201 226 Others 1,097 1,118 1,118 1,117 1,115 Interest income 0 0 0 0 0 Non-current assets 1,826 1,998 2,147 2,268 2,362 Others 47 (5) 19 22 26 Inventories 375 344 445 528 568 Change in working capital (97) 43 (62) (80) (8) Debtors & prepayments 0 0 0 0 0 Tax & interest paid (200) (317) (344) (398) (470) Bank deposits & cash 362 572 704 996 1,355 Operating activities 480 759 758 847 1,038 Others 380 472 572 586 691 Purchase of non-current assets (249) (350) (350) (350) (350) Current assets 1,118 1,387 1,721 2,110 2,614 Disposal of non-current assets 5 18 20 22 24 Bank & other borrowings 165 176 67 144 180 Associates & JCE (net) (14) 0 0 0 0 Trade & payables 284 331 446 455 568 Interest received 0 0 0 0 0 Taxation 118 97 91 105 120 Dividends received 0 1 0 0 0 Current liabilities 717 742 750 862 1,038 Investing activities (257) (332) (330) (328) (326) Bank & other borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 New loans raised 12 73 150 150 150 Others 396 313 407 421 424 Repayment of loans (133) (129) (160) (56) (136) Non-current liabilities 396 313 407 421 424 Dividends paid (6) (134) (281) (319) (366) Net assets 1,831 2,330 2,711 3,096 3,514 Others 168 (8) (6) (2) (1) Share capital 256 256 256 256 256 Financing activities 40 (198) (296) (228) (353) Premium & reserves 1,135 1,438 1,758 2,048 2,349 Inc/(dec) in cash 263 230 132 292 359 Shareholders' funds 1,823 2,320 2,698 3,080 3,495 Cash at beginning of year 79 354 572 704 996 Non-controlling interests 8 10 13 16 20 Foreign exchange effect 11 (11) 0 0 0 Total equity 1,831 2,330 2,711 3,096 3,514 Cash at end of year 362 572 704 996 1,355 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) 3
Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 4
信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上 利益披露声明 报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何 财务权益 本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包 括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇 员 免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个 别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报 告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 5