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恭栾
5 years ago
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1 Company Research Company update Dawnrays Pharma (2348 HK) System specific drugs are the key drivers Dawnrays pharma delivered good net profit growth, which was in line with market expectation. Although it recorded a decrease in sales due to restructure of product mix, gross margin improved significantly due to strong growth of higher margin system specific drugs. Based on Bloomberg consensus, the counter is currently trading at 19.3x FY14 P/E and 15.3x FY15 P/E. 1H 2014 results were in line with expectation. For 1H 2014, Dawnrays pharma reported a sales decrease of 8.3% YoY to RMB410m while its net profit increased 30.1% YoY to RMB102m. Gross margin improved 15.3 percentage points to 57.4%. System specific drugs achieved a strong growth of 34.5% YoY to RMB254m, accounting for 61.9% of total sales (42.2% in 1H 2013). The sales of intermediates and bulk medicine decreased 46.1% YoY to RMB101m while the sales of antibiotics decreased 22.3% to RMB55m. The gross margin improvement was due to strong growth of system specific drugs. Anti-hypertensive drugs benefit from low price drug policy. For 1H 2014, sales of An ( 安 ) series anti-hypertensive drugs increased 27.7% YoY to RMB154m, accounting for 37.5% of total sales (27% in 1H 2013). Dawnrays pharma s key anti-hypertensive drug Anneizhen (Amlodipine Besylate Tablets) has been widely recognized. Also, Anneizhen is on the low price drug list and Essential Drug List and its selling price has the potential to be raised in the future while sales volume would be maintained. This would drive up sales growth and margin improvement. Anti-hepatitis drugs keep strong growth. For 1H 2014, sales of Leiyide ( 雷易得 ) (Entecavir Dispersible tablets) for antihepatitis B virus increased 68.3% YoY to RMB77m, accounting for 18.8% of total sales (10.2% in 1H 2013). Leiyide has penetrated into around 16 provinces in mainland China. Also, the company had granted GSK as the exclusive distributor for Leiyide in HK and Macau for 5 years since from We think that the recognition of Leiyide by world leading pharmaceutical company is positive and improve its brand images in mainland China. We think that Leiyie s further growth opportunities would come from: 1) expansion to new provinces; 2) increase of product sales in existing provinces. The company showed improvement in cash position. At the end of June 2014, the company had net cash and bank deposit of RMB345m compared to RMB215m at the same time last year. Also, its inventory level decreased 30.4% to RMB108m while its account receivables decreased 32.8% to RMB256m. Figure 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 31 (RMBmn) 2011A 2012A 2013A 1H2013A 1H2014A Revenue 1, Operating Profit Reported Profit Underlying Profit Underlying EPS (CNY) DPS (CNY) BVPS (CNY) P/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) P/B (x) Source: Guosen Securities(HK) Hong Kong / Health Care 18 August 2014 Non rated Target price Last price (17 Aug 14) Upside/downside (%) HK$6.31 HSI Mkt cap (HK$mn/US$mn) 5,087/ week range (HK$) Avg trading volume daily (US$mn).78 Free float (%) 42% Source: Bloomberg Performance HK$ Aug-13 Price(LHS) Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) (0.8) Absolute (US$, %) (0.8) Relative to HSI (%) (6.9) Source: Bloomberg Company background Dawnrays Pharmaceutical (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells nonpatented chemical medicines including cephalosporins in sterile bulk medicine and powder for injection forms, their intermediate pharmaceuticals and system specific medicines. The Group produces a series of cephalosporins with various therapeutic uses. Source: Bloomberg Helena Qiu SFC CE No.: AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk Apr-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 240% 190% 140% 90% See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 公司报告公司快讯东瑞制药 (2348 HK) 系统专科药是主要增长动力东瑞制药净利润保持强劲增长, 符合市场预期尽管公司销售收入的增长受到产品品种结构调整的影响, 但是受益于高毛利的系统专科药的高速增长, 其毛利率水平获得了大幅提升基于彭博资讯的信息, 该股目前市场预测的 2014 年市盈率为 19.3 倍 2015 年为 15 倍 2014 年上半年净利润符合市场预期在 2014 年上半年, 东瑞制药的销售收入同比下降了 8.3% 为人民币 4.1 亿元同期, 其净利润同比上升了 30.1% 为人民币 1.02 亿元毛利率提升了 15.3 个百分点达到 57.4% 系统专科药强劲增长 34.5% 为人民币 2.54 亿元, 占总销售收入的 61.9% (2013 年上半年占 42.2%) 中间体和原料药的销售收入下降了 46.1% 为人民币 1.01 亿元同期, 抗生素系列产品的销售收入下降了 22.3% 为人民币 0.55 亿元系统专科药的强劲增长大幅提升了公司的毛利率水平香港 / 医疗保健 2014 年 8 月 18 日未评级目标价收盘价 (17 Aug 14) HK$6.31 Upside/downside (%) 恒生指数总市值 (HK$/US$mn) 5,087/ 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 日均成交额 (US$mn).78 流通量 (%) 42% 资料来源 : 彭博股价表现 HK$ 240% 高血压治疗用药受益于低价药物目录在 2014 年上半年, 公司治疗高血压的安系列产品同比增长 27.7% 为人民币 1.54 亿元, 占总销售收入的 37.5% (2013 年上半年占 27%) 东瑞制药的主要高血压治疗用药安内真 ( 苯磺酸氨氯地平片 ) 已经获得了患者的广泛认可另外, 安内真已经进入了基本药物目录和低价药物目录我们认为该产品的销售价格的提升可能不会影响到其销售量, 进而推动产品销售额的进一步增长和利润水平的提升 Aug-13 Price(LHS) 190% 140% 90% Apr-14 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 治疗乙肝产品保持强劲增长在 2014 年上半年, 公司治疗乙肝病毒的雷易得 ( 恩替卡韦分散片 ) 同比增长 68.3% 为人民币 0.77 亿元, 占总销售收入的 18.8% (2013 年上半年占 10.2%) 雷易得已经进入了中国大陆地区约 16 个省另外, 葛兰素史克与 2012 年与公司签订协议, 成为该产品在香港和澳门地区的独家代理商, 目前暂定为期 5 年我们认为国际知名公司对东瑞产品的认可亦有利于公司在中国地区的品牌形象雷易得未来的增长可以来自 :1) 渗透入新的省 ;2) 进一步提升在现有省的销售现金水平进一步提升截止 2014 年 6 月底, 公司在手净现金和银行存款为人民币 3.45 亿元, 较去年同期的人民币 2.15 亿元有大幅提升另外, 公司的存货水平下降了 30.4% 为人民币 1.08 亿元同时, 其应收账款下降了 32.8% 为人民币 2.56 亿元股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) (0.8) 绝对回报 (US$, %) (0.8) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) (6.9) 资料来源 : 彭博公司簡介东瑞制药 ( 控股 ) 有限公司主要从事专利化学药务开发制造及销售, 包括以无菌原料药及粉针剂形示开发制造及销售头孢菌素, 并开发制造及销售头孢菌素的药物中间体产品及系统专科药物其公司并生产一系列具疗效之头孢菌素供各种医疗用途资料来源 : 彭博 Figure 2: 盈利预测截至 Dec 31 ( 人民币百万 ) 2011A 2012A 2013A 1H 1H 2013A 2014A 营业额 1, 经营盈利净利润实际盈利每股实际盈利 (CNY) 每股股息 (CNY) 每股账面价值 (CNY) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 市净率 (x) 资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 邱海燕证监会中央编号 :AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2

3 Figure 3 Trailing PE band chart Figure 4 Trailing PB band chart HK$ Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 max 30.8X PE(x) 30.8X +1sd 25.4X avg 18.3X -1sd 11.2X min 9.6X Feb-13 Oct-13 Jun-14 max 8.8X PB(x) 8.8X +1sd 5.3X avg 3.1X -1sd 1.0X min 1.1X Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Source: Bloomberg, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 3

4 Summary financial statements Profit & Loss (RMBmn) 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue 1, Cost of sales (718) (532) (512) Gross profit Other income/(expense) Operating expenses (157) (158) (174) Operating profit Other non operating inc/(exp) (25) (18) (36) Finance income Finance expenses (2) (4) (4) Associates & JCE Profit before taxation Taxation (33) (30) (36) Non-controlling interests Net profit Other Adjustments on UP Underlying Profit Source: Guosen Research estimates Balance Sheet (RMBmn) 2011A 2012A 2013A Cashflow (RMBmn) 2011A 2012A 2013A Fixed assets Operating profit Associates & JCE Depreciation & amortization Others Interest income (4) (5) (9) Non-current assets Change in working capital (95) Inventories Tax paid (34) (23) (30) Debtors & prepayments Other operating cashflow Cash Operating activities Others Purchase of non-current assets (Capex) (152) (113) (91) Current assets ,019 Free cash flow (69) Bank & other borrowings Disposal of non-current assets Trade & payables Associates & JCE (net) Taxation Interest received Others Dividends received Current liabilities Other investing cashflow Bank & other borrowings Investing activities (149) (109) (83) Others New loans raised Non-current liabilities Repayment of loans (68) (142) (81) Net assets ,092 Dividends paid (65) (54) (48) Share capital Other financing cashflow (40) (74) (99) Premium & reserves ,007 Financing activities (41) (35) (95) Shareholders' funds ,092 Inc/(dec) in cash (107) Non-controlling interests Cash at beginning of year Total equity ,092 Foreign exchange effect (6) (2) (3) Source: Guosen Research estimates Cash at end of year Source: Guosen Research estimates Guosen Securities (HK) 4

5 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 5

6 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 6

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公司报告业绩分析国药控股 (1099 HK) 持续改革以稳定增长国药控股于 8 月 22 日公布总体盈利和核心净利润分别为人民币 25.29 亿 ( 同比升 32%) 及 25 亿 ( 同比升 35%), 较我们预期高 17% 及 8%, 原因是融资成本和税率下降 16 第 2