Microsoft Word - healthcare sector

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仑兹董
5 years ago
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1 Sector Research Healthcare Beneficiaries of the low price drug list Following the announcement of NHFPC made in April 2014, NDRC issued the list of low price drug on 8 May While the purpose of NHFPC and NDRC is to guarantee supply of these low price drugs, we expect to see price divergence among these drugs. Prices for exclusive drugs with strong brand recognition are set to rise while prices for general drugs will be still under pressure. We believe Tong Ren Tang Tech (1666 HK), China TCM (570 HK), and Baiyunshan (874 HK) will be key beneficiaries under this new policy. China / Healthcare 8 May 2014 Overweight NHFPC encourages guarantee supply of low price drug. China s National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) and other 7 government authorities jointly announced the Opinion on Guarantee of Supply of Low Price Drug on 1 April The key points are as follows. 1) Government authorities should help and encourage pharmaceutical companies to increase supply of low price drugs. 2) National Development and Reform commission (NDRC) should keep a more open attitude towards low price drugs, remove the price cap on them and allow suppliers to raise prices if the daily spending on these drugs is under certain level. 3) Government authorities should support healthcare institutions to use low price drugs. 4) Government authorities should encourage the society to support this policy. NDRC announces the list of low price drugs. NDRC announced the list of low price drug on 8 May The list includes 250 TCM drugs and 283 western drugs. Average daily spending on these drugs should not be more than RMB5 for TCM and RMB3 for western drugs based on the maximum retail price and the average daily intake. We expect to see price divergence on low price drugs The purpose of this policy is to give pharmaceutical companies more flexibility on pricing of these drugs. We believe the prices of exclusive drugs are set to increase while prices of general drugs with many providers will be under pressure given the market competition. In addition, we believe brand recognition will also be a key determinant factor in pricing differential of these low price drugs. Baiyunshan, Tong Ren Tang and China TCM are key beneficiaries. Tong Ren Tang Tech (1666 HK), China TCM (570 HK) and Baiyunshan (874 HK) all have decent exposures to low price drugs and would be key beneficiaries from the low price drug policy. Tong Ren Tang Tech s key products (Ganmao Qingre Granual, Niuhuang Jiedu Tablets, Liuwei Dihuang Pills, Jinkui Shenqi Pills) are on the low price drug list and account for around 20% of its total revenue. China TCM s key exclusive products (Bi YanKang tablet, Xianling Gubao tablet) are on the list and account for around 15% of its total revenue. Baiyunshan s exclusive product (Xiao Ke Wan) and well know product (Ban lan Gen granule) are on the list and account for around 5% of its total revenue. Figure 1: Sector Valuation Summary Price(8 May 2014) FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Target Price Stock BBG HK$ PE(x) PE(x) Yield(%) Yield(%) HK$ Upside(%) Rating Baiyunshan Pharm 874 HK Buy Tong Ren Tang Tech 1666 HK Buy China TCM 570 HK Buy Guosen Securities (HK) Helena Qiu SFC CE No.: AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1

2 行业报告医药行业获益于低价药物目录的公司接着卫计委 2014 年 4 月的公告, 发改委于 2014 年 5 月 8 日公布了低价药物目录卫计委和发改委的目的是保障低价药品的供应, 而我们预计不同产品将面临不同的价格调整独家产品或者品牌强劲的产品有提价的空间, 而普通产品应该仍然面临价格下调的压力我们认为该政策对同仁堂科技 (1666 HK) 中国中药 (570 HK) 白云山 (874 HK) 有利中国 / 医药行业 2014 年 5 月 8 日超配卫计委鼓励保障低价药品的供应卫计委等 8 部门联合于 2014 年 4 月 1 日制定了关于做好常用低价药品供应保障工作的意见主要涉及如下方面 ;1) 政府部门应该帮助和鼓励药企增加低价药品的供应 2) 发改委应该取消针对每个具体品种的最高零售限价, 允许生产经营者在日均费用标准内, 根据药品生产成本和市场供求状况自主定价 3) 政府部门要采取措施鼓励各级医疗提升常用低价药品的使用量 4) 政府部门要做好宣传, 让社会各界支持使用低价药品发改委宣布低价药物目录发改委于 2014 年 5 月 8 日宣布了低价药物目录清单该目录包括 250 种中药和 283 种西药现阶段低价药品日均费用标准为 : 西药不超过 3 元, 中成药不超过 5 元我们认为低价药品的价格调整将出现分化该政策的目的是让低价药品生产经营在日均费用标准内自主调整药品价格我们独家品种的价格将有上升空间, 而一些竞争者比较多的药品将仍然面临价格下调的压力另外, 我们认为品牌认知度也将是决定这些低价药品价格调整的一个关键因素白云山同仁堂科技中国中药将受益同仁堂科技 (1666 HK) 中国中药 (570 HK) 白云山 (874 HK) 都有核心产品进入低价药品目录, 将受益于低价药品政策同仁堂的核心产品包括感冒清热颗粒牛黄解毒片六味地黄丸金匮肾气丸都进入了低价药品目录. 低价药品约占同仁堂科技总收入的 20% 中国中药的核心独家产品鼻炎康片仙灵骨葆片都进入了低价药品目录低价药品约占同仁堂科技总收入的 15% 白云山的独家产品消渴丸和知名产品板蓝根颗粒都进入了低价药品目录低价药品约占白云山总收入的 5% 邱海燕证监会中央编号 :AOX helena.qiu@guosen.com.hk 表 2: 行业概览股票代码 ( 港币 ) 股价 (2014/5/8) FYE1 FYE2 FYE1 FYE2 目标价市盈率 (x) 市盈率 (x) 股息率 (%) 股息率 (%) ( 港币 ) 上升空间 (%) 评级白云山 874 HK 买入同仁堂科技 1666 HK 买入中国中药 570 HK 买入资料来源 : 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2 2

3 Title3: Opinion on Guarantee of Supply of Low Price Drug Key content 1 Government authorities should help and encourage pharmaceutical companies to increase supply of low price drugs. 2 National Development and Reform commission (NDRC) should keep a more open attitude towards low price drugs, remove the price cap on them and allow suppliers to raise prices if the daily spending on these drugs is under certain level. 3 Each province/city should purchase low price drugs through centralized purchasing platform. 4 Government authorities should have inventory for drugs, which may have supply shortage. 5 Government authorities should support healthcare institutions to use low price drugs. 6 Government authorities should set up a system to track the supply of low price drugs to ensure enough supply in the market. 7 Government authorities should keep supervision of supply, price and quality of low price drugs. 8 Government authorities should encourage the society to support the policy and use of low price drugs. NHFPC Title4: Improvement on price management of low price drugs Main content 1 The price cap of low price drugs will be removed 2 Average daily spending on these drugs should not be more than RMB5 for TCM and RMB3 for western drugs based on the maximum retail price and the average daily intake. 3 4 Local government is responsible for watching the price change. If selling price of certain drug decreases to be in the standard of low price drugs, local government should put it in the low price list, vice versa. Government shall make sure low price drug to work in the medical refund system. Local government should encourage the use of low price drugs. NDRC Title5: Low price drug information Company Name Ticker Low price drug Retail price Average daily spending Notes Tong Ren Tang Tech 1666 HK Ganmao Qingre Granule RMB8 RMB1.6 Price information in SH Niuhuang Jiedu Tablets RMB2.78 RMB0.837 Price information in Hebei Liuwei Dihuang Pills RMB14.5 RMB2.9 Price information in BJ Jinkui Shenqi Pills RMB7.5 RMB1.87 Price information in SH China TCM 570 HK Bi Yan Kang tablet RMB11.37 RMB2.27 Price information in Sichuan Xianling Gubao tablet RMB61.8 RMB3.72 Price information in internet drug store Baiyunshan 874 HK Xiao Ke Wan RMB24.72 RMB3.53 Price information in Sichuan Ban Lan Gen granule RMB9.1 RMB1.82 Price information in Sichuan Guosen Securities(HK) Research 3

4 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from 10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from 10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 4

5 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 5

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February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)