公司报告美即控股 (1633.HK) 2013 年 1 月 7 日美即控股 (1633.HK) 电话会议纪要买入目标价 : HK$ 4.62 潜在升幅 :43.9% 无需担心营销费用的上调短期虽淡化盈利水平, 但长期来看是积极的投资投资要点 2013 上半财年收入预计增幅在 30% 以上 :

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娘又李
7 years ago
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1 Company Research Magic Holdings (1633.HK) Jan 7, 2013 Magic Holdings(1633.HK) BUY Target price: HK$4.62 Upside:43.9% No need to worry about the Increase of Marketing Expenses Investment Highlights FY2013 sales will be up 30% yoy. According to the management, revenue for FY2013 (year to June) will increase over 30% yoy, while the Chinese mask market grows at 20%, showing that Magic is still ahead of the industry average growth rate. Marketing expense ratio will reach 55%. The ratio of selling expenses to revenue is likely to reach 55% in FY2013, compared with 51.3% in FY2012. (1) Improvement of in-store channel quality: bettering the mask shelves display location, enlarging the display areas, and increasing the number of sales staff in supermarkets, etc; (2) Brand image: package upgrades and using standard shelves with brand mark; (3) Online promotion: online sales percentage is expected to further improved in FY2013 to around 10% from 7% in 1H2013, and the single-day (Nov. 11, 2012) sales in T-Mall stores achieved over HK$ 20 million. The cost increasing will surely hurt the short-term profitability for Magic, but we believe this is a positive investment strategy in the long-term. On-line channel is a key for the improvement of market share. Management also mentioned that the new sales target for FY2015 will achieve HK$ 3 billion, with a market share of more than 30%. At present, the total market share of Magic in China has been over 20%. Specifically, the market share in its core channel Watsons is more than 40%, and that in supermarkets is about 30% - 40%, thus company will focus on the on-line channel to achieve its target. 4-5 new products will launch market around Chinese New Year. Company has been put effort to seek opportunities for cooperation with some famous mask manufacturers in Taiwan and Korea. 4-5 new masks are planned to be put into market in next month, including sleeping mask and snail mask. We maintain BUY rating with a PT of HK$ We expect GP Margin for FY2013 remain at 75%-76%, and net profit margin will slightly drop from 13.2% to 13% due to the higher marketing expenses, which will be partly offset by the deduction of administration cost. We are still optimistic about the prospects of the company and maintain BUY rating, with 12-month TP adjusting to HK$ 4.62 and potential upside of 43.9%. Analyst Consumer & Retail Stephy Wong SFC CE No.:AYC stephy.wong@guosen.com.hk 12-month performance 30,000 20,000 10,000 Source: Bloomberg Key Data /1/7 2013/1/7 Price(HK$) 3.21 Shares Outstanding(m) 1,020 Market Cap. (HK$ m) 3,274 Free float (%) 34% 52 Week Range 3.68/2.33 Controlling Shareholder Baring Private Equity Asia (20.53%) BVPS (HK$) 1.45 Asset-liability ratio (%) 8% Related Research HKI 1633.HK Exhibit 1: Financial Summary Year to Jun 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E Turnover (HK$ m) ,349 1,788 2,342 Turnover Growth (%) 68.50% 51.72% 40.96% 32.50% 31.00% Net Profit (HK$ m) Net Profit Growth (%) 75.40% 34.89% 27.40% 13.54% 36.27% EPS (HK$) P/E (x) <Magic Holdings: The Leader of Local Mask Brand> March 5, 2012 <Magic Holdings: The No. 1 Chinese mask brand in the domestic mask market > May 23, 2012 <Magic Holdings: Conference Summary> July 13, 2012 <Magic Holdings: Prepared Well for the Coming Period of Industry Consolidation > 26 Sep Dividend per share(hk$) Source: Guosen Securities (HK) For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1

2 公司报告美即控股 (1633.HK) 2013 年 1 月 7 日美即控股 (1633.HK) 电话会议纪要买入目标价 : HK$ 4.62 潜在升幅 :43.9% 无需担心营销费用的上调短期虽淡化盈利水平, 但长期来看是积极的投资投资要点 2013 上半财年收入预计增幅在 30% 以上 : 在 2013 年的第一个工作日, 公司举办了一次电话会议, 管理层表示 2013 上半年 (2012 年 6 月 -12 月 ) 的总营收按年升幅达 30% 以上, 而面膜市场的增长率仍保持在 20% 左右的水平, 可见公司仍以领先于行业平均水平的速度继续高速增长营销费用率将最多增至 55%: 根据公司管理层的初步预算,2013 财年的营销费用率较上年的 51.3% 有一定程度的增长, 但尽量控制在 55% 以内而费用的增加主要投入到以下四个方面 :(1) 线下分析师王奕旻 ( 消费零售行业 ) 证监会中央编号 : AYC stephy.wong@guosen.com.hk 终端门店质量的改善 : 除了新店数目的增加, 主要是针对原有门店质量的提升, 包括面膜货架的陈列位置以及占地面积 ;(2) 品牌形象 : 包括面膜的包装升级以及采用带有品牌标记的专用货架等 ;( 3) 终端营销人员 : 过去主要集中在屈臣氏, 未来会扩充在商超大卖场的销售人员数量 ;(4) 线上推广活动 : 互联网不仅是一个传播渠道, 更是一个重要的销售渠道, 其销售占比在 2013 上半财年得到进一步提升, 公司预计达 10%, 去年光棍节的网上单日销量在 2,000 万元以上我们认为, 费用的增加对公司短期的盈利能力会带来一定的影响, 但长远来看, 这是一项积极的投资, 我们对其战略发展观念表示认同发展线上渠道是提升整体市占率水平的关键因素 : 管理层在公司未来三年的新规划中提到, 争取 12 个月股价走势 30,000 20,000 10, 财年收入突破 30 亿, 市占率达 30% 以上 ; 目前公司的总体市占率已超过 20%, 其核心渠道屈臣氏的市占率达 40% 以上, 商超也有 30%-40%, 因此线上渠道将是公司未来重点发展的渠道 /1/7 2013/1/7 产品线略有调整,2013 年春节前后 4-5 款新品面膜有望问世 : 目前来看, 缤纷系列仍然是美即的主导产品 ; 而价格较高的流金丝语 (25 元 / 片 ) 将是 2013 年的主推产品, 目的在于吸引更多的高端消费者, 巩固其市场地位 ; 汉草理肤则通过增强分销来维持稳定增长 ; 泉是针对敏感肤质的面膜, 因此消费群比较小众, 今后的销售占比可能逐步减小 ; 唧唧面膜奢颜密钥 HKI 资料来源 : 彭博资讯 1633.HK 以及矿物泥深层清洁等涂抹式面膜的销售占比呈现不断增加的趋势, 公司将加强此类产品的研发和推广同时, 公司还在寻求与台湾面膜生产厂商在原料技术方面的合作机会, 并有望在 2013 年春节前后推出 4-5 款新产品, 包括睡眠面膜以及目前在韩国最受推崇的蜗牛面膜维持买入评级, 目标价上调至 4.62 港元 : 我们预计 2013 财年毛利率基本维持在 75%-76% 的水平, 而由于行政费用的减少部分抵消了营销费用的增加, 净利率仅由去年同期的 13.2% 轻微下调至 13%,2013 和 2014 财年的每股收益分别为港元和港元我们依然保持对公司前景的乐观态度, 基于 P/E 估值法, 我们上调 12 个月的目标价至 4.62 港元, 较目前股价有 43.9% 的上升空间, 维持买入的投资评级股票数据收盘价 (HK$) 3.21 总股本 / 流通股本 (m) 2,000/ 1,020 总市值 / 流通市值 (HK$, m) 6,420/3, 周最高 / 最低 (HK$) 3.68/2.33 主要控股股东 Baring Private Equity Asia (20.53%) 每股净资产 (HK$) 1.45 资产负债率 (%) 8% 盈利预测截至 30/6 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 营业额 (HK$, m) ,349 1,788 2,342 增长 (Y/Y,%) 68.50% 51.72% 40.96% 32.50% 31.00% 净利润 (HK$, m) 增长 (Y/Y,%) 75.40% 34.89% 27.40% 13.54% 36.27% 每股收益 (HK$) 市盈率 (x) 相关报告美即控股 : 本土面膜品牌的佼佼者 2012 年 3 月 5 日美即控股 : 继续引领面膜市场的中国本土第一品牌 2012 年 5 月 23 日美即控股 : 会议纪要 2012 年 7 月 13 日美即控股 :2012 全年业绩亮丽, 美即乐观迎战行业格局定型时期的到来 2012 年 9 月 26 日每股派息 (HK$) 资料来源 : 国信香港

3 附录 1 公司损益表 HK$ m 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 营业额 ,349 1,788 2,342 销售成本 (145) (222) (316) (426) (553) 毛利 ,033 1,362 1,789 毛利率 77.00% 76.9% 76.6% 76.2% 76.4% 其他收入销售及分销成本 (333) (493) (692) (983) (1,288) 行政费用 (30) (54) (92) (82) (91) 衍生金融工具的公平值收益终止确认衍生金融工具的收益融资成本税前溢利所得税 (25) (49) (65) (72) (101) 税后利润少数股东权益 (1) (0) (4) 2 3 股东应占净利润每股基本收益 (HK$) 每股派息 (HK$) 资料来源 : 国信香港 3

4 附录 2 公司资产负债表 HK$ m 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 物业厂房及设备预付土地租赁款项商誉无形资产递延税项资产预付款项及按金非流动资产总值存货贸易应收款项应收关联方款项预付款项按金及其他应收款项可回收税项现金及现金等价物 ,104 流动资产总值 ,270 1,492 贸易应付款项其他应付款项及应计费用衍生金融工具应付关联方款项应付税项流动负债总值非流动负债股本储备 ,158 1,379 本公司权益持有人应占权益 ,242 1,480 非控股权益权益总计 ,258 1,493 每股资产净值 (HK$) 资料来源 : 国信香港 4

5 Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Buy: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 5

6 信息披露公司评级行业评级及相关定义公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上利益披露声明报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员免责条款证券价格有时可能非常波动证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失本研究报告内容既不代表的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理牵头经办人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性公正性及完整性不做任何保证本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民居民个人或实体发布公布供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 6

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February 21, 2012 Company Report Haier Electronics(1169.HK) 3 rd /4 th -tier channels the key BUY Price Target:HK$ 11.2 Upside:+13% Key Data Price(HK$) 9.89 Shares Outstanding 2,351 Market Cap. (HK$ m)