2014 1 202 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 1 2014 Tot. No. 202 人力资源开发与就业 姚先国, 方 昕, 钱雪亚 310027 : 基于 控制 - 干预 的思想, 文章使用 1998 ~ 2009 年中国城镇住户调查数据, 通 过双差分模型和三次差分模型, 分析了高校扩招政策对大学毕业生工资的干预效应研究结 果表明 : 在大学毕业生群体中, 受到扩招影响的新毕业生遭受了一定程度的工资损失 ; 考虑 高中毕业生的相对变化后, 高校扩招对大学新毕业生年工资的负效应显著减弱在扩招干预 效应的变化上, 本文发现 : 招影响的较年长大学毕业生的工资损失降低 随着时间的推移, 扩招对新毕业生工资的负效应逐渐减弱, 受扩 高校扩招 ; 大学毕业生 ; 干预效应 ; 三重差分模型 F244 A 1000-4149 2014 01-0067 - 13 DOI 10. 3969 /j. issn. 1000-4149. 2014. 01. 006 The Effect of Higher Education Expansion on the Wage of College Graduates YAO Xianguo FANG Xin QIAN Xueya School of Public Affairs Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310027 China Abstract Under a treatment control framework this paper uses DID Difference in Difference Models Method and its extended form Difference in Difference in Difference Models with the Urban Household Survey Datasets from 1998 to 2009 to investigate the impact of higher education expansion policy on college graduates in the labor market. The results indicate that higher education expansion has caused the wage loss of college graduates who affected by this policy when we take the change of high school graduates into consideration the loss of wage can be reduced. Considering impact changes of the higher education expansion this study finds that the negative effect on the youngest college graduates has decreased over time and loss of wage in older college graduates has been smaller than their youth. 2013-07 - 21 2013-11 - 28 70933001 67
2014 1 Keywords higher education expansion college graduates treatment effect Difference in Difference Method 1999 21 2010 15% 1 2002 2008 6. 91% 2 GDP 15% 19% 28% 39% 25% 1 2010 2010-2020 10 24. 2% 40% 9. 9% 20% 3 2013 699 2 - Control-Treatment Before-After DID DDD 4 ~6 1993 ~2000 2000 ~2004 2004 ~ 2006 7 1998 ~2009 8 9 3 1 2 3 http / /data. worldbank. org 2009 www. moe. gov. cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/moe/s7020/201211/xxgk_ 144771. html 31 ~ 40 21 ~ 25 68
10 1992 2001 11 Dufol 12 ~ 13 Urban Household Survey 226 1998 ~ 2009 1998 ~ 2009 12 14 21 ~ 40 1998 1999 6 ~ 8 18 ~ 22 3 4 21 ~ 23 22 ~ 24 1 1 22 ~ 24 21 ~ 25 69
2014 1 21 ~ 24 31 ~ 40 1 2 21 ~ 24 25 ~ 30 1 1998 ~ 2009 31 ~ 40 2003 ~ 2009 13. 6% 8. 0% 21 ~ 24 2003 ~ 2005 7. 6% 图 1 新毕业生 和 老毕业生 的年 平均工资 ( 1998 ~ 2009 年 ) 15 1. 2 ~ 1. 3 2005 1. 1 1. 16 ln W ikt = α + βnew k * policy t + δx it + φy t + ε ikt 1 ln W ikt i new k k 1 0 policy t t 2003 2003 1 0 new k * policy t 1 1998 ~ 2009 2009 31 ~ 40 1999 2 21 ~ 24 70
X it i 1 Y t 1998 ~ 2009 17 ln w ikt = α + β 1 college i * new k + β 2 college i * policy t + β 3 new k * policy t + β 4 college i * new k * policy t + δx it + φy t + ε ikt 2 2 1 college t t 1 0 β 4 2 3 GDP 4 GDP GDP GDP GDP 2. 18 1998 ~ 2005 31 ~ 40 1 2 3 4 1 6 2 12 3 GDP 1990 GDP 71
2014 1 1 2 1 22 ~ 24 21 ~ 23 表 1 扩招干预效应的双差分检验结果 ( 1998 ~ 2005 年 ) I II III I II III 21 0. 062 0. 180 0. 325-0. 774 *** - 0. 812 *** - 0. 765 *** 0. 332 0. 325 0. 314 0. 131 0. 128 0. 123 22-0. 506 *** - 0. 426 *** - 0. 382 *** - 0. 235 *** - 0. 258 *** - 0. 248 *** 0. 112 0. 109 0. 103 0. 085 0. 083 0. 080 23-0. 411 *** - 0. 446 *** - 0. 400 *** - 0. 140 ** - 0. 154 *** - 0. 160 *** 0. 096 0. 094 0. 091 0. 059 0. 058 0. 055 24-0. 148 * - 0. 171 ** - 0. 158 ** - 0. 108 * - 0. 093-0. 088 0. 082 0. 080 0. 078 0. 059 0. 057 0. 055 25-0. 083-0. 056-0. 060-0. 059-0. 061-0. 076 0. 083 0. 081 0. 079 0. 055 0. 054 0. 052 26-0. 082-0. 086-0. 050-0. 038-0. 038-0. 061 0. 090 0. 088 0. 085 0. 058 0. 056 0. 054 27-0. 014-0. 019-0. 021-0. 031-0. 040-0. 044 0. 087 0. 085 0. 082 0. 059 0. 057 0. 055 28-0. 037-0. 032-0. 020-0. 088-0. 083-0. 058 0. 083 0. 081 0. 078 0. 066 0. 065 0. 062 29-0. 035-0. 035-0. 039 0. 015 0. 013-0. 018 0. 080 0. 078 0. 075 0. 058 0. 057 0. 054 30 0. 005-0. 023 0. 016 0. 029 0. 021 0. 016 0. 089 0. 087 0. 084 0. 060 0. 059 0. 056 * ** *** 10% 5% 1% I II III II 表 2 扩招干预效应的三次差分检验 ( 1998 ~ 2005 年 ) I II III I II III 21-0. 671 *** - 0. 799 *** - 0. 693 *** 0. 071 0. 052 0. 263 0. 157 0. 151 0. 146 0. 359 0. 347 0. 336 22-0. 226 ** - 0. 292 *** - 0. 302 *** - 0. 412 ** - 0. 443 ** - 0. 431 ** 0. 111 0. 107 0. 103 0. 196 0. 190 0. 183 23-0. 172 ** - 0. 257 *** - 0. 228 *** - 0. 263 ** - 0. 392 *** - 0. 385 *** 0. 086 0. 083 0. 080 0. 123 0. 119 0. 115 24-0. 141 * - 0. 165 ** - 0. 142 ** - 0. 184-0. 272 ** - 0. 256 ** 0. 077 0. 075 0. 072 0. 117 0. 113 0. 109 25-0. 067-0. 108-0. 097-0. 050-0. 094-0. 040 0. 085 0. 082 0. 079 0. 115 0. 111 0. 108 26 0. 014-0. 027-0. 010-0. 013-0. 052-0. 024 0. 083 0. 080 0. 077 0. 108 0. 104 0. 101 27-0. 026-0. 083-0. 083-0. 022-0. 071-0. 058 0. 082 0. 079 0. 076 0. 112 0. 108 0. 104 28-0. 023-0. 048-0. 057 0. 043 0. 014 0. 018 0. 083 0. 080 0. 077 0. 110 0. 106 0. 103 29-0. 023-0. 026-0. 045-0. 015-0. 011-0. 012 0. 080 0. 077 0. 075 0. 107 0. 103 0. 100 30-0. 011-0. 011-0. 017-0. 014-0. 013-0. 010 0. 091 0. 088 0. 085 0. 103 0. 100 0. 097 I II III II 72
24 2 21 ~ 24 22 ~ 24 0 22 ~ 24 21 ~ 23 1. 22 ~24 21 ~23 1 31 ~40 3 表 3 扩招后大学毕业生工资变化的双差分结果 I II III I II III - 0. 155 ** - 0. 112 * - 0. 133 ** - 0. 060-0. 018-0. 031 0. 061 0. 061 0. 059 0. 045 0. 043 0. 044 * - 0. 135 *** - 0. 160 *** - 0. 136 *** - 0. 156 *** - 0. 167 *** - 0. 145 *** 0. 052 0. 051 0. 049 0. 040 0. 039 0. 037 0. 082 *** 0. 084 *** 0. 086 *** 0. 094 *** 0. 079 *** 0. 080 *** 0. 007 0. 007 0. 007 0. 005 0. 005 0. 005-0. 147 *** - 0. 135 *** - 0. 142 *** - 0. 175 *** - 0. 159 *** - 0. 165 *** 0. 011 0. 011 0. 011 0. 009 0. 009 0. 009 0. 158 *** 0. 178 *** 0. 184 *** 0. 207 *** 0. 035 0. 034 0. 019 0. 019 0. 243 *** 0. 219 *** 0. 154 *** 0. 139 *** 0. 037 0. 036 0. 021 0. 021 0. 011-0. 007-0. 053 ** - 0. 044* 0. 044 0. 043 0. 024 0. 024 0. 229 ** - 0. 044 0. 104 0. 067 0. 003 *** 0. 003 *** 0. 001 0. 000 GDP 0. 093 *** 0. 091 *** 0. 008 0. 007 GDP 0. 008 *** 0. 005 *** 0. 001 0. 001 GDP 0. 006 *** 0. 004 *** 0. 001 0. 001 GDP 0. 008 *** 0. 012 *** 0. 002 0. 002 8. 426 *** 8. 293 *** 6. 766 *** 8. 085 *** 7. 950 *** 6. 729 *** 0. 065 0. 084 0. 134 0. 048 0. 064 0. 102 11113 11113 11113 16707 16707 16707 R 2 0. 450 0. 469 0. 501 0. 426 0. 455 0. 494 I II III II 1 4 3 1 73
2014 1 15. 5% 13. 5% - 0. 160-0. 136 15. 6% 0. 145 1 GDP GDP GDP GDP 2 3 2. 19 21 ~ 24 74
31 ~ 40 4 表 4 扩招后大学毕业生相对工资变化的三次差分结果 I II III 0. 018 0. 026 0. 006 0. 030 0. 029 0. 028 0. 183 *** 0. 371 *** 0. 210 *** 0. 014 0. 014 0. 014 * - 0. 133 *** - 0. 088 ** - 0. 110 *** 0. 037 0. 036 0. 035 * - 0. 081 ** - 0. 028-0. 018 0. 034 0. 033 0. 031 * 0. 048 *** 0. 068 *** 0. 073 *** 0 0. 016 0. 016 0. 015 * * - 0. 082 * - 0. 111 *** - 0. 095 ** 0. 044 0. 043 0. 041 7. 882 *** 7. 812 *** 6. 423 *** 0. 029 0. 039 0. 062 42328 42328 42328 R 2 0. 477 0. 510 0. 542 5 6 I II III II 18. 3% 4. 8% 9. 5% - 0. 135-0. 156-0. 082-0. 095 21. 0% 7. 3% 3. 2003 2003 ~ 2009 1 5 1 19. 5% 8. 9% 2 2003 8. 2% 1 4 21 ~ 24 31 ~ 40 75
2014 1 表 5 2003 ~ 2009 年大学毕业生工资变化的三次差分结果 I II III 0. 016 0. 024 0. 004 0. 030 0. 029 0. 028 0. 377 *** 0. 222 *** 0. 195 *** 0. 014 0. 014 0. 014 * - 0. 111 *** - 0. 068 * - 0. 089 ** 0. 037 0. 036 0. 035 * 2003 0. 057 ** 0. 073 *** 0. 082 *** 0. 027 0. 026 0. 025 * 2004 0. 106 *** 0. 121 *** 0. 116 *** 0. 026 0. 025 0. 024 * 2005 0. 085 *** 0. 086 *** 0. 112 *** 0. 025 0. 025 0. 024 * 2006 0. 102 *** 0. 098 *** 0. 097 *** 0. 025 0. 025 0. 024 * 2007 0. 073 *** 0. 077 *** 0. 079 *** 0. 024 0. 024 0. 023 * 2008 0. 081 *** 0. 078 *** 0. 062 ** 0. 027 0. 027 0. 026 * 2009-0. 042 0. 014 0. 016 0. 026 0. 025 0. 025 * * 2003-0. 090 ** - 0. 102 ** - 0. 105 ** 0. 044 0. 041 0. 049 * * 2004-0. 123 *** - 0. 184 *** - 0. 159 *** 0. 052 0. 050 0. 047 * * 2005-0. 176 *** - 0. 230 *** - 0. 197 *** 0. 041 0. 049 0. 047 * * 2006-0. 082 * - 0. 118 ** - 0. 111 ** 0. 049 0. 046 0. 044 * * 2007-0. 058-0. 087 * - 0. 093 ** 0. 048 0. 046 0. 043 * * 2008-0. 029-0. 051-0. 050 0. 045 0. 043 0. 041 * * 2009-0. 062-0. 101 * - 0. 108 * 0. 043 0. 042 0. 048 7. 888 *** 7. 818 *** 6. 429 *** 0. 029 0. 039 0. 062 42328 42328 42328 R 2 0. 479 0. 511 0. 543 I II III II 2005 11. 2% 2009 1. 6% 3 2003-10. 5% 2005-19. 7% 2005 2009 10. 8% 76
22 ~ 24 31 ~ 40 2003 25 ~ 27 artificial treatment 31 ~ 40 25 ~ 27 2006 2006 25 ~ 27 2003 22 ~ 24 6 1 22 ~ 24 25 ~ 27-0. 117-0. 107 2 25 ~ 27 38. 8% 22 ~ 24 22 ~ 27 3 22 ~ 24 25 ~ 27-0. 092 4 22 ~ 24 25 ~ 27 25 ~ 27 2006 表 6 扩招后本科毕业生工资变化的三次差分结果 ( 样本 : 高中 大专和本科毕业生 ) 22 ~ 24 25 ~ 27 I II III I II III 0. 018 0. 015 0. 014-0. 065 *** - 0. 073 *** - 0. 092 *** 0. 034 0. 033 0. 032 0. 022 0. 022 0. 021 0. 513 *** 0. 350 *** 0. 293 *** 0. 591 *** 0. 434 *** 0. 388 *** 0. 020 0. 021 0. 021 0. 013 0. 014 0. 014 * - 0. 217 *** - 0. 188 *** - 0. 186 *** 0. 052 0. 024 0. 049 0. 059 0. 058 0. 056 0. 032 0. 031 0. 030 * - 0. 097 *** - 0. 040-0. 023 0. 023 0. 038 0. 035 0. 037 0. 036 0. 035 0. 031 0. 030 0. 029 * 0. 080 *** 0. 099 *** 0. 113 *** - 0. 019-0. 002-0. 000 0. 022 0. 022 0. 021 0. 018 0. 017 0. 017 * * - 0. 088 ** - 0. 095 ** - 0. 117 *** - 0. 038-0. 109 * - 0. 107 * 0. 042 0. 041 0. 040 0. 065 0. 064 0. 062 7. 964 *** 7. 823 *** 6. 537 *** 8. 015 *** 7. 880 *** 6. 627 *** 0. 036 0. 048 0. 080 0. 033 0. 045 0. 077 24271 24271 24271 26194 26194 26194 R 2 0. 533 0. 558 0. 586 0. 526 0. 553 0. 580 I II III II 77
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