12 4 2013 7 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.12No.4 July2013 黄新飞舒元郑华懋 * 摘要 2004 2007 25 : 45.9 6.6 0.2% 关键词 一 引 言 Young (2000) Quarterly Journal of Economics : 1978 1997 * ; ; : 135 510275; : 13640722210;E-mail:huangxf3@mail.sysu.edu.cn (71003111) (09YJC790271) ( ) (10WYXM062) (10pywk11) (10wkjc05)
1370 ( ) 12 1993 2003 1986 5 29 14 ;1997 14 ;2003 9 2011 EngelandRogers (1996) 75000 EngelandRogers (1996) EngelandRogers EngelandRogers (2001) EngelandRogers n n (n-1)/2 (heterogeneityefect) : 2004 2007 ( )16 ( )9 1 Pars- leyand Wei (2001) 1 16 ; 9
4 : 1371 二 文献综述 20 90 Mc- Calum (1995) 22 McCalum Wolf(2000) 1993 HeliwelandVer- dier(2000) Heliwel (2002) McCalum (1995) 1996 McCalum (1995) ( ) Wei (1996) ( ) ( ) OECD OECD 2.5 Headand Mayer (2000) Wei (1996) 19 70 21 1995 11.3 Feenstra (2002) Andersonand Van Wincoop (2003) CES McCalum
1372 ( ) 12 44% Hanson (2005) Samuelson EngelandRogers (19962001) 14 75000 12 2 Parsleyand Wei (2001) 43000 238900 GorodnichenkoandTesar (2009) EngelandRogers (1996) Parsleyand Wei (2001) 71438 47 Young (2000) Poncet (2003) Naughton (1999) 1987 1992 Poncet (2003) Naughton (1999) 1997 1987 1997 ( 1992 ) 651 411 1992 16 1997 27 Poncet (2005) GDP 2 : (McCalum1995;Wolf2000)
4 : 1373 (2006) 1997 19 (2007) (2005) 1990 2002 Barro 45.7% (2010) Fanand Wei (2006) (2006) 1985 2001 (2009) 4 6 (2010) 1995 2005 33 LLC
1374 ( ) 12 三 基本模型与异质效应 ( ) (thelawofoneprice) t i k P k it k i j 3 T k ij Qk ijt=p k/ it P k jt Qk ijt T k ; ij Q k jit=p k/ jt P k it = 1 T k : ij Q k ijt 1 T k ij Q k ijt T k ij. (1) (1) :-t k ij q k ij t k ij q k ij [-t k ij t k ] ij σ (q k ) ijt tk Gorodnichenkoand ij Tesar (2009) q k [ ij -t k ij t k ] ij T k : ij T k ij =exp[c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + φ k +αi +αj +εk ij ] ( 2) dis ij i j ;Border ij φ k αi αj k i j ;ε ijt k q k σ (q k ) ijt tk ( ij 2) q k ij (3) : σ(q k ) ijt t k ij =c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + φ k +αi +αj +εk ijt. (3) d * [exp( β 2/ β 1)-1] (Parsleyand Wei2001) 4 3 ( ) 4 β 2 β 1 ( ) Engeland Rogers (1996) β 2 d d β 1lnd = β 2 d =exp( β 2/ β 1) EngelandRogers(1996) d Parsleyand Wei (2001) : Z d Z β 1ln (d+z)=β 1ln (d)+β 2 Z=d * [exp( β 2/ β 1)-1] Parsleyand Wei(2001) Parsleyand Wei(2001)
4 : 1375 ( ) (3) Gorod- nichenkoandtesar (2009) (4) : 25 σij =βborder ij +μ ccc + μ zzz + αsd s. (4) s=1 CC ZZ Border D s S=i S=j D s=1 1 16 17 25 (4) : CC ij =- 1 2 Borderij + 1 16 D 2 s (5) s=1 ZZ ij =- 1 2 Borderij + 1 25 D 2 s (6) s=17 EngelandRogers (1996) (5) (6) (4) (7) : σij = [ β- 1 2 ( μ c + μ ] z N ) Border ij + s=k+1 k 1 2 μc +α ( ) s D s + 1 2 μz +α s=1 ( ) s D s. (7) Border ( ) 1 2 ( μ c+ μ ) z : μ c=μ z EngelandRogers (1996) 5 ZZ : 16 σij= ( β +αc +αz)border ij + ( μ c +2αC)CC ij + ( μ z +2αZ)ZZ ij + s=1 25 αsd C s+ S=17 α Z sd 5 μ Z<β<μ C β- 1 2 ( μ c+ μ z )
1376 ( ) 12 16 25 =b CZBorder ij +b CCCC ij +b ZZZZ ij + α sd C s + α sd Z s. (8) s=1 S=17 s α c s=αs-αc ; s α c s=αs-αc 16 25 S=1 αc s =0 S=17 αz s =0CC ZZ CZ μ c μ (4) z ZZ (9) ZZ : σ(q k ) ijt =c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + β 3ZZ + φ k +αi +αj +εk ij. (9) Border ZZ (9) 四 中国城市价格差异波动的测算 ( ) EngelandRogers (1996) Parsleyand Wei (20002001) σ(q k ) ijt σ(δq k )( ijt ) (9) 6 2003 2007 16 9 6 6 EngelandRogers (1996) Parsleyand Wei Engeland Rogers (1996) k i j P k/ it Pjt k Parsleyand Wei i j t i j EngelandRogers (1996) 6 (2006) EngelandRogers(1996) (2007)
4 : 1377 Parsleyand Wei Parsleyand Wei Parsleyand Wei σ (Δq k ) 7 : ijt ΔQ k ijt = ln(p k it / P k jt ) -ln(p k it-1 / P k jt-1 ) = ln(p k it / P k it-1 ) -ln(p k jt / P k jt-1 ). ΔQ ijt k (3) φ k k ΔQ ijt k 8 (2006) ΔQ ijt k φ k ε ijt k φ k k ε k ijt i j ΔQ ijt k ΔQ k : ΔQ k ijt - ΔQ k =φ k- φ k+εk ijt-ε k ijt Δq k ijt=ε k ijt-ε k ijt= ΔQ k ijt - ΔQ k Δq ijt k σ (Δq k ) ijt : σ(δqijt)=c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + β 3ZZij +αi +αj +εijt. (10) ( ) 25 2004 2007 1 1 2004 2007 25 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 0.0178 0.0237 0.0173 0.0161 0.0140 2 0.0179 0.0200 0.0195 0.0167 0.0153 3 0.0182 0.0233 0.0186 0.0161 0.0149 7 EngelandRogers(1996) Parsleyand Wei(199620002001) σ(q ijt k ) σ(δq ijt k ) 8 i j : ; i j ( i ) ( 2006)
1378 ( ) 12 ( ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 4 0.0183 0.0224 0.0213 0.0161 0.0133 5 0.0186 0.0237 0.0195 0.0158 0.0154 6 0.0190 0.0228 0.0197 0.0178 0.0158 7 0.0191 0.0213 0.0186 0.0164 0.0202 8 0.0195 0.0239 0.0237 0.0164 0.0142 9 0.0197 0.0245 0.0216 0.0164 0.0164 10 0.0200 0.0238 0.0183 0.0222 0.0157 11 0.0200 0.0214 0.0211 0.0212 0.0162 12 0.0203 0.0283 0.0209 0.0185 0.0135 13 0.0205 0.0238 0.0224 0.0162 0.0196 14 0.0205 0.0237 0.0246 0.0187 0.0151 15 0.0206 0.0247 0.0194 0.0183 0.0199 16 0.0206 0.0198 0.0255 0.0199 0.0171 17 0.0211 0.0291 0.0205 0.0163 0.0185 18 0.0212 0.0243 0.0238 0.0196 0.0173 19 0.0216 0.0217 0.0271 0.0190 0.0187 20 0.0217 0.0239 0.0241 0.0202 0.0186 21 0.0236 0.0318 0.0243 0.0189 0.0192 22 0.0238 0.0263 0.0246 0.0230 0.0214 23 0.0242 0.0214 0.0192 0.0381 0.0183 24 0.0270 0.0460 0.0266 0.0218 0.0135 25 0.0272 0.0336 0.0350 0.0201 0.0202 0.0209 0.0252 0.0223 0.0192 0.0169 : 1 : 0.0242 0.018 30% 2004 0.0252 2007 0.0169 1/3 20 90 9 21 9 1992 14 ( ) 1997 1994
4 : 1379 15 2004 2007 0.0234 0.0212 0.0195 0.0166 9 0.0284 0.0242 0.0186 0.0174 2006 2 2 2004 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 0.0198 0.0189 0.0150 0.0144 0.0170 0.0200 0.0185 0.0170 0.0158 0.0178 0.0200 0.0185 0.0170 0.0158 0.0178 0.0199 0.0186 0.0163 0.0154 0.0176 0.0212 0.0173 0.0446 0.0205 0.0259 0.0204 0.0182 0.0353 0.0145 0.0221 0.0215 0.0206 0.0180 0.0165 0.0192 0.0210 0.0187 0.0327 0.0172 0.0224 0.0226 0.0214 0.0354 0.0200 0.0248 0.0267 0.0236 0.0189 0.0176 0.0217 0.0298 0.0252 0.0161 0.0168 0.0220 0.0264 0.0234 0.0235 0.0181 0.0228 0.0224 0.0203 0.0242 0.0169 0.0209 0.0176; 0.0224 0.0048 0.0228 五 实证研究 ( ) (11) ; Parsleyand Wei (2001) Parsleyand Wei (2001) (12) ; (11) (12)
1380 ( ) 12 σ(δqijt)=c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + β 3ZZij +αi +αj +εijt (11) σ(δqijt)=c+β 1ln (dis ij )+β 2Borderij + β3zzij +Trend +Trend W ij +αi +αj +εijt (12) Ln (dis) (Border) (ZZ) (Trend)W ij Border Ln (dis) : (1) (dis) GCD (greatcircledistance) GCD=R arccos(cosαcosβcos c + sinαsinβ ) R 6371 α β c (htp://www.astron.sh. Cn/shujubase/3city.htm) (2) (Border) : 1 0; 1 0; 1 0 (3) (ZZ) ZZ 1 0 (4) (Trend) Parsleyand Wei (2001) 2004 1 2005 2006 2007 2 3 4 (5) (State) (Gov) Border Border GDP 10 3 10
4 : 1381 3 (2004 2007 ) σ(δq) 1200 0.021 0.0094 0.0047 0.079 Ln(dis) 300 6.04 1.142 2.90 7.38 State 1200 0.291 0.161 0.046 1.001 Gov 1200 0.169 0.052 0.066 0.484 : (11) σ(δqijt) ; Parsleyand Wei (2001) Trend ; (State) (Gov) ( ) 4 σ(δqijt) 1 2 3 4 ZZ 10% t White 4 1: σ(δq) 2: 3 : 4: C 0.014 (8.86) *** 1.13 (134.43) *** 0.018 (11.16) *** 0.016 (13.52) *** Ln(dis) 0.0014 0.004 0.0003 0.000528 (1.86) * (2.15) ** (1.67) * (2.34) *** Border 0.0051-0.007 (4.14) *** (2.15) 0.00178 0.00212 (3.23) *** (4.17) *** ZZ 0.0042 (7.69) *** BorderEffect(km) 10710 0 459070 66384 AdjR 2 0.15 0.14 0.28 0.31 F-statistic 2.78 2.13 10.94 11.89 D -W 1.99 2.00 1.76 1.80 480 144 1200 1200 : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; t Ln (dis) 1%
1382 ( ) 12 0.0014 0.004 Ln (dis) Border Border 2009 1 β 1=0.0014 β 2=0.0051 d=287.9 d * [exp( β 2/ β 1)-1]=10710 Border 0 Gorodnichenkoand Tesar (2009) 11 3 4 ZZ 144 ( ) d=1219.6 459070 66384 85% : 12 86130 9 0 10710 ( ) Parsleyand Wei (2001) Parsleyand Wei (2001) ( ZZ ) Trend Trend : Trend Border Trend Ln (dis) 13 5 11 14 9 14 Border 0 12 GorodnichenkoandTesar(2009) 13 Parsley Wei(2001) ZZ Trend Border ZZ
4 : 1383 5 C σ(δq) 5 6 7 0.024 0.022 0.031 (13.42) *** (11.91) *** (7.62) *** Ln(dis) Border 0.0005 0.0006 0.0014 (1.77) * (2.56) ** (1.90) * 0.0015 0.0044 0.008 (2.29) ** (3.60) *** (4.07) *** Trend -0.0026 (-6.65) *** -0.0018 (-6.65) *** -0.004 (-3.43) *** Trend Border -0.0016 (-3.81) *** -0.002 (-3.72) *** Trend Ln(dis) 0.0006 (2.34) ** AdjR 2 0.04 0.04 0.18 F-statistic 29.00 23.37 16.96 D -W 1.73 1.89 1.86 1200 1200 1200 : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; t Trend 1 Trend Border 0.2% 1% t Parsleyand Wei(2001) 0.4% Trend Border Ln (dis) ( ) (State) (Gov) 8 9 4 State Gov 10 9 Trend Trend : Trend Border Trend Ln (dis) 6 Border ZZ Trend State 8 Gov State Gov 9 10 State Gov
1384 ( ) 12 6 σ(δq) 8 9 10 C 0.016 (10.76) *** 0.021 (11.61) *** 0.023 (5.29) *** Ln(dis) 0.0007 (2.79) *** 0.00075 (2.24) *** 0.0003 (1.64) * Border 0.0016 (2.66) *** 0.0029 (4.11) *** 0.00072 (6.63) *** ZZ 0.0038 (6.8) *** 0.0024 (3.71) *** 0.0036 (4.41) *** Trend Trend Border -0.0018 (-7.22) *** -0.0016 (-4.74) *** Trend Ln(dis) 0.0004 (1.76) * State 0.024 0.00038 (1.99) ** (1.29) 0.00047 (1.23) Gov 0.013 (1.99) ** 0.0042 (1.67) * BorderEffect(km) 10772 57056 12224 AdjR 2 0.04 0.03 0.19 F-statistic 21.51 10.53 16.62 D -W 1.83 1.89 1.85 1200 1200 1200 : *** ** * 1% 5% 10% ; t 六 小结与进一步的研究方向 ( )25 : 66384 0.2% : 25
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1386 ( ) 12 tegration Review of InternationalEconomics200513409 430. [21]PoncetS. A FragmentedChina:MeasureandDeterminantsofChineseDomesticMarketDisin- [22]FeenstraR. BorderEfectsandtheGravityEquation:ConsistentMethodsforEstimation Scot- tish Journalof PoliticalEconomy200249(5)491 506. tion NBER Working paper1996. [24] ( )2009 8 4 1455 1474 [25] 2010 4 76 84 [26] 2005 12 57 67 [27]YoungA. TheRazor sedge:distributionsandincrementalreforminthepeople srepublic China Quarterly Journalof Economics20001151091 1136. [28] : 2007 9 37 47 [29] ( ) 2009 2 12 24 IstheBorderEffectofCitiesinChinaDeclining EstimationBasedonLawofOnePrice XINFEI HUANG YUAN SHU (Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou) HUAMAO ZHENG (Renmin Universityof China) [23] WeiS. Intra-nationalversusInternationalTrade:HowStubbornAreNationsinGlobalIntegra- Abstract Thispaperemploysthepricedataof25citiesinYangtzeRiverDeltaandPearl RiverDeltatocalculatethedomesticpricevolatilityindexesofsixcommodities.Weconstruct abasicmodelinvolvingtheheterogeneityefecttoestimatetheborderefectofdomesticcities andanalyzethetimetrend.theresultshowsthatinvolvingtheheterogeneityefectinthe distributionofwithin-regiondiferentialscanefectivelyreducetheborderefect.themodi- fiedborderefectdecreasedfrom459000kmto66384kmanddeclinesatarateof0.2% per year.theadministrativeboundaryhasagreatimpactontheborderefect. JELClasification F15R10R33