GDP ( 1 2) 1,,,,,,,,,, 1 ( ) GDP ( ) WIND,, 2 ( ) GDP ( ),20 70 WIND, Blanchard 20 80,,, [2] Hofman , [3] Guscina % % [4], 1 2

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1 * JOURNAL OFRENMIN UNIVERSITY OFCHINA No [ ], ;,, [ ] ; [ ] ; ; ( ),,2000,,,,,,,,2011, 78%, , 5.5% 22.3% [1],, [ ] (14JGA007); (14AZD019) * 80

2 GDP ( 1 2) 1,,,,,,,,,, 1 ( ) GDP ( ) WIND,, 2 ( ) GDP ( ),20 70 WIND, Blanchard 20 80,,, [2] Hofman , [3] Guscina % % [4], 1 2,,20 90,,, , , [5] , 2008,

3 , 51.4% %, % [6], , [10] 59.58% 48.38% 59.8% 34.86%, [11] [7], GDP, % %, [8] 1998,, (1), (2) αt =Σαi,t vsh i,t,αi,t i,vsh i,t (3) i,, α i1 -αt0 = Σα i,t0 vsh i,t1 -Σαi,t0 vsh i,t0, GDP (4) = [Σαi,0 (vsh i,t1 -vsh i,t0 )] + [Σ(αi,t1 -αi,t0) vsh i,t1 ] ; GDP ,, [12] [13],,, ;,, 1978,, ,, 3.36, ( ) 2.12, ( ), 1.7,,, 60% 30% [9],, ,,, 82

4 ,, ;, ( ) 1 1., Y it=a itk 1-a i it L a i it,i {a,m,s},, 0<αi<1,,i=a,m,s, A it i, γi αi,,,,,,,,,,,, αi Kit = αj Kjt 1-αi L it 1-αj L jt, (,, ), ( ) P it = Amt a a ( ), P mt A( ) m K it a( ) it i L( ) -1 i 1-a K m mt it L( ), mt i=a,s, A mt Amt,, A it A st, αa>αs>αm, 1,,2014 (3) 83

5 , 2., α= iwli U = β t log(c t ), t=0 C t = η1 a (C at - C珚 a ) -1 +η 1 ( C mt ) -1 熿 m 燄燀 +η 1 s (C st + C珚 s ) -1 燅 -1, η a η m η s 0, 珚 C a 珚 C s 0,,, , >0,, 1 W t,, R tk t, ( ) P atc at+p mtc mt+ P stc st+k t+1- (1-δ)K t=r tk t+w t,, P it P mt = ηi 1 C η( ) ( mt m C it- 珚 C ) i 1,i=a,s 20 90,,, L mt= [ ηa 1-smt η m 1-s at +1+ ηs 1-smt η m 1+s st L it=l mt ηi 1-smt η m 1-s it i=a,s αa α( ) at k1-α 1- mt ( m z m k 1-α a ) at αs α( ) st k1-α mt ( m z m k 1-α s ) st m αi mt α( ) ( z it k1-α m k 1-α i ) it 1- ] -1 1-,,z at= Amt,z st= Amt,k at= Kmt,k st= Kst, A at A st L at L st 珚 C a s at= 珚,S mt= It C st Y mt, -1 L = ( i i α ) i PiYi i,, ( ), ( ),, = ( ) , 7.5%, , % 2004, 2004, 2004,, 2004 [14] 2004,

6 2004, 6.3%, ,, , , [15] 2009, ( ),,,,, Bai Qian Hsueh Li Holz ,, ( ) , [16] [17], , , 1984 {αat,αmt,αst} ( )

7 , ( C =C s=0, ), ~1 =0.8,, {Y a,y m,y s },, Holz ; [19], ,, 1998,,, ,, ; ,, , 2004, Cs=0.3021,Cs=0.3111,sm1=0.4448; η=0.4, η m =0.2, η s=0.4,=0.8 αa1=0.6356,αm1=0.4503,αs1=0.5302, γ=5.024%,γm =4.979%,γs=2.917% ( ) 1., 3, ,, , (1993 ) 2.2%;,, , 1.73%, 0.47% 1993, , 2007, ( ), 5.59%;, ( =0.2537), , 6.28%, ( 1) 0.69%, (0.45,0.70) [18], { η, α η, m η s},,,, , 3 Dekle Vandenbroucke [20] {S mt }, 86

8 5, , /1.73=3%;1993, %, c a=0,c s=0, 1-6.3/6.28= %, 0.91%,, / (1) 1.73=47%; , 5.55%,, /6.28= 12%,,, ( ), ( ),,,, (2),,,,, 1.68%,, , γ=4.872%,, 87

9 , %,, /1.73= -8.25%; , 7 (1), , 6.48%,, 0.52%, /6.28= -3.13%,,, /1.73=70%; ,, 0.86%,, 1-, 0.86/6.28=86% (2), ( ) 1.12%, 1- [21] 1.12/1.73=35%; , 3.44%,, /6.28=45% % -35% =35%, % -45% =41% 6 5.,,,, (1),, 7 ( ) ;(2),,, ( 3),,,,, 88

10 , (1), ( ),, ( ),, ;(2), (%) (%) ( ) ( ),,,, 4,, [22],,, (%) (%) ,,,, 89

11 ,, PCT,,,, 20 80,,,,,, [23], 3D,,,,,,,,,,,, [1],,2013 (10) [2] Blanchard,O.J.,Nordhaus, W.D.,and E.S.Phelps. The Medium Run.Brookings Paperson Eco- nomic Activity, [3] Hofman,A.A. EconomicGrowth,FactorSharesandIncomeDistributioninLatinAmericanintheTwenti- ethcentury.santiago,cepal,mimeo,2001. [4] Guscina,A. EfectsofGlobalizationon Labor ssharein NationalIncome.IMF Working Paper No. 294,2006. [5][14][18],,2009 (3) [6],,2008 (11);,,2009 (5) [7],, 2009 (7) [8],,2009 (7) [9],,2009 (3) [10],,2010 (12) [11] GDP U,,2009 (1) [12],, 2009 (4) 90

12 [13] Solow,R.M. ASkepticalNoteontheConstancyofRelativeShares.The American Economic Review, 1958, [15][17],,2010 (6) [16] Bai,C.E.,and QianZ. TheFactorIncomeDistributioninChina China Economic Re- view,2010,21 (4) ;Hsueh,T.T.,andLi,Q.China s NationalIncome Westview Press, 1999;Holz,C.A. MeasuringChineseProductivityGrowth, PreliminaryVersion,2006. [19] Holz,C.A. MeasuringChineseProductivityGrowth, PreliminaryVersion,2006. [20] Dekle,R.,andG.Vandenbroucke. A QuantitativeAnalysisofChina sstructuraltransformation.jour- nalof Economic Dynamicsand Control,2012,36 (1) liticaleconomics,2008,116 (3) ; ,,2014 (3) [22],, 2014 (3) [23] IT,,2009 (6) IndustrialStructureChangeandtheEvolutionof LaborIncomeRatioinChina YU Ze 1,ZHANG Xiao-meng 2,LIU Feng-liang 1 (1.SchoolofEconomics,RenminUniversityofChina,Beijing100872; 2.HanqingAdvancedInstituteofEconomicsandFinance,RenminUniversityofChina,Beijing100872) [21] Acemoglu,D.,andV.Guerrieri. CapitalDeepeningandNonbalancedEconomicGrowth.Journalof Po- AbstractThedeclineoflaborincomeratioimpedesfamilyconsumptioninChina.Usingunbalanced economicgrowthmodel,thepaperanalyzestheimpactofindustrialstructuralchangeonlaborincome ratio.theendogenousforcesofindustrialstructurechangeare mainlytheincomegrowth,capital deepening,andtechnologyprogress.theupgradeofconsumptioncausedbyincomegrowthpushes theindustrialstructuralchangeontheonehand,itdecreasesthelaborincomeratioontheother.cap- italdeepeningincreasestheindustrialstructuralchangeandthelaborincomeratio.theimpactoftech- nologyisfuzzy.accordingtotheresults,inordertochoosetoupgradetheindustrialstructureand theproportionoflaborincome,furtheranalyzingtechnologicalprogressfindsthat,improvingtheag- riculturalsectortechnicalprogressratewilreducethelaborincomeshare,improvingthemanufactur- ingsectortechnicalprogressratewilincreasetheshareoflaborincome,andimprovingtheservicein- dustrysectortechnicalprogresswilhavenoapparentinfluenceonthelaborincomeshare.therefore, thefocusofchina'sstructuraladjustmentandstablegrowthshouldbeputintoimprovethesecondin- dustrytechnologicalprogress,andmaintainanappropriateinvestmentgrowthrate. Keywordsindustrialstructuralchange;laborincomeratio;consumption ( ) 91

中国党和政府在严格控制人口数量的过快增长的同时，还十分重视提高整个中华民族人口质量的工作

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