I (002030) ( ) 2008 07 29 10.03 0755-22622653 yangxiaohao@pasc.com.cn 12 010-59734988 duds@pasc.com.cn 002030 http://www.daangeng.com ( ) 20,064.00 ( ) 11,791.41 ( ) 11.83 ( ) 1.47 (%) 11.49 (%) 27.41 08 35% 12 31 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E ( ) 162.47 172.54 207.14 276.00 344.00 447.00 ( ) 26.30 28.62 34.90 47.08 62.48 81.44 (%) -12.48 8.84% 21.94% 37.89% 35.73% 38.34% ( ) 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.24 0.33 0.45 ( ) 77.62 72.07 69.77 41.62 30.83 22.34
2/20...3 1...3 2...4...6 1...6 2...7 3...10 4...10...12 1...12 2...12 3...13...14 1...14 2...14 3...14 4...14 5...14...15...16 1...16 2...16...17
1 : 1 1 PCR PCR TRF 2 TCT 3 3/20
2 1999 2000 PCR 2000 2001 2003 SARS 2006 IgM IgG 2006 CA15-3 2008 2008 2009 EB NA1 IgA 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 PCR ABI PRISM PCR 2007 TRF 2 04 07 2.07 20.1% 3420 18.6% 4/20
3 05-07 14000 12000 10000 2005 2006 2007 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 4 05-07 10000 9000 8000 7000 2005 2006 2007 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 07 61.8% 75.6% 5/20
5 07 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1 08 60 10-15% 34% 29% 5% 3 15-20% 6 37% 34% 29% 6/20
7/20 1 2 1 1998 PCR 70% 9300 2000 5 10% PCR 70% 20% PCR PCR PCR 120-150 / 10-20 / PCR
600 PCR 600 *100 =6 70 PCR 14 PCR 2000 90% 2.3 PCR 2,000 *100 =20 2 30% 08 07 38% 2 TRF 8/20
7 TRF 2 06 14 ELISA 18 30% TRF 200 130 600 2000 5 15% 08 08 CA15-3 FDA 07 1000 08 100% 2500 3 9/20
30% 40% 08 3 160 10-15% PCR TCT 07 2010 TCT 07 15 10-14% 4 1 08 1000 2 10/20
11/20 10% 05 460 30% 06 6000 06 07 07 4000 20% 50% 6000 100% 60% 07 12 2 07 3-5 10 10 08 28% 07 38%
1 1 07 24 2 07 3 4 1300 2 1 900 15% 30% 12/20
7% 2 PCR 03 SARS PCR 5 PCR CE 1-2 PCR 3 PCR 7 08 CA15-3 8 20 4 3 1 PCR 13/20
2 1 SFDA 07 2 PCR 3 SFDA 4 5 PCR 04 44% 07 31% 14/20
8 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 9,621.3 10,608.6 12,806.8 17,000.0 22,000.0 29,000.0 78.9% 75.8% 73.3% 75.0% 75.0% 75.0% 7,591.2 8,037.1 9,389.9 12,750.0 16,500.0 21,750.0 1,752.9 2,640.2 2,527.0 2,700.0 3,000.0 3,300.0 28.7% 27.6% 16.4% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 503.8 729.2 414.7 486.0 540.0 594.0 4,556.0 3,495.7 5,103.2 7,500.0 9,000.0 12,000.0 20.4% 25.6% 48.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 929.0 893.8 2,448.0 3,000.0 3,600.0 4,800.0 317.1 509.4 290.5 400.0 400.0 400.0 22.6% 44.0% 55.8% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 71.5 223.9 162.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 16,247.2 17,253.9 20,727.6 27,600.0 34,400.0 44,700.0 56.0% 57.3% 59.9% 59.5% 60.5% 61.1% 9,095.4 9,884.1 12,414.6 16,416.0 20,820.0 27,324.0 9 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 162.47 172.54 207.14 276.00 344.00 447.00 4.24% 6.20% 20.05% 33.24% 24.64% 29.94% 71.52 73.79 83.13 111.84 135.80 173.76 27.37 32.02 37.20 49.68 61.92 80.46 29.40 31.38 40.40 48.30 58.82 79.57-1.55-1.09 2.37 3.19 4.05 4.51 32.22 34.83 39.54 61.21 81.22 106.28 0.06 1.56 4.20 1.94 2.57 2.90 0.11 0.12 0.92 0.38 0.47 0.59 32.17 36.27 42.82 62.77 83.31 108.59 5.84 7.55 8.75 15.69 20.83 27.15 26.33 28.72 34.07 47.08 62.48 81.44 26.30 28.62 34.90 47.08 62.48 81.44 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.24 0.33 0.45 200.64 8.84% 21.94% 37.89% 35.73% 38.34% :wind 15/20
1 10 12.04 28.24 20.14 16.79 50.39 27.57 (ROE)( ) (ROA) 12.00 26.51 14.77 17.67 32.16 28.00 59.87 60.84 53.78 62.34 54.83 65.64 38.61 29.34 17.96 26.00 20.03 24.13 17.95 17.08 7.12 10.33 5.94 4.53 19.49 12.28 9.91 14.53 12.44 20.51 1.14-0.03 0.93 1.13 1.66-0.91 :wind ROE ROA 05 07 18 2 11 1.91 3.31 1.92 2.34 1.46 13.85 1.68 2.73 1.49 1.27 0.90 13.66 1.62 2.69 0.74 1.22 0.78 10.39 27.41 20.59 30.11 33.73 44.54 5.92 20.30 46.13 31.01 28.34 0.06 0.02 0.17 0.44 0.01 / 2.36-2.52 0.18-0.23-3.38 :wind 27 20 IPO 16/20
3 12 4.36 2.77 1.72 0.86 1.74 11.95 1.90 5.41 12.22 4.29 4.29 6.67 1.00 1.17 0.73 1.00 1.44 0.60 1.81 3.24 1.23 1.59 3.35 3.03 0.55 0.73 0.40 0.50 0.98 0.45 :wind 07 2.07 1.28 08 35% 13 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007P E 2008 2009 2010 0.14 0.24 0.33 0.45 10.03 69.77 41.62 30.83 22.34 0.56 0.55 0.76 1.05 24.25 43.30 43.94 31.73 23.17 0.32 0.29 0.44 0.48 15.18 47.44 52.53 34.56 31.69 0.68 0.65 0.90 1.11 28.80 42.35 44.31 32.07 25.92 0.55 0.82 1.16 1.76 40.10 72.91 48.94 34.52 22.72 :WIND 08 38% 09 10 35% 38% 08 09 2010 0.24 0.33 0.45 PE 41 31 22 08 50 PE 0.24*50=12 17/20
14 12 31 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 162.47 172.54 207.14 276.00 344.00 447.00 71.52 73.79 83.13 111.84 135.80 173.76 % 55.98% 57.23% 59.87% 59.48% 60.52% 61.13% -1.55-1.09 2.37 3.19 4.05 4.51 29.40 31.38 40.40 48.30 58.82 79.57 27.37 32.02 37.20 49.68 61.92 80.46 5.84 7.55 8.75 15.69 20.83 27.15 26.30 28.62 34.90 47.08 62.48 81.44 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.23 0.31 0.41 15 12 31 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 102.34 66.56 23.79 13.80 17.20 22.35 78.58 99.40 127.93 160.63 200.21 260.15 9.52 12.08 26.07 22.37 27.16 34.75 210.10 204.41 210.78 233.35 289.83 375.86 82.52 79.30 150.33 171.91 193.54 188.58 86.75 122.62 215.10 249.14 286.46 284.47 296.85 327.03 425.87 482.49 576.29 660.32 0.00 0.00 64.60 57.53 83.91 76.79 5.52 13.82 14.54 16.78 20.37 26.06 0.29 2.71 3.23 4.14 5.16 6.71 13.57 33.37 110.25 106.40 143.39 153.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.59 12.02 6.47 10.69 9.73 8.96 27.15 45.39 116.72 117.09 153.11 161.96 83.60 125.40 125.40 200.64 200.64 200.64 1.58 4.57 4.12 4.12 4.12 4.12 268.11 277.07 305.03 361.27 419.05 494.24 296.85 327.03 425.87 482.49 576.29 660.32 18/20
16 12 31 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 27.80 30.09 8.79 67.47 61.70 63.74-14.24-50.03-104.01-79.55-79.97-45.22-45.29-15.83 52.58 2.09 21.67-13.37-31.74-35.78-42.77-9.99 3.40 5.15 19/20
6 20% 6 10% 20% 6 10% 6 10% 2008 518029 4008866338 0755 82449257