2012 2 No. 2 2012 150 SOUTHEAST ASIAN AFFAIRS General Serial No. 150 430074 22007 CPF CPF CPF CPF F13 /17. 339. 1 A 1003-9856 2012 02-0018 - 11 CPF 1955 CPF 1977 7 1984 4 1987 1 1 3 1 55 2011-12 - 26 08JJD840183 11BSH065 Lund University * Lund University David Edgerton Agneta Kruse * CPF 18
55 2004 2005 2006 5500 5000 4500 2 50 34. 5% 20% 14. 5% 1 1955 20 50 21 50 1 60 1950 2010 3. 7% 16% 2030 35. 6% 33. 9% 37. 4% 65 1950 2010 2. 4% 10. 2% 2030 27. 5% 26. 3% 28. 9% 80 1950 80 4000 0. 4% 2010 19
97000 2. 0% 2050 762000 14. 6% 1980 1990 2000 2030 52% 47% 51% 78% 1 2 1955 1 1950-2030 % 60 60 65 65 1950 38 3. 7 3. 7 3. 7 24 2. 4 2. 4 2. 4 1960 61 3. 7 3. 7 3. 7 34 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 1970 118 5. 7 5. 7 5. 7 70 3. 4 3. 4 3. 4 1980 174 7. 2 7. 2 7. 2 114 4. 7 4. 7 4. 7 1990 254 8. 4 8. 4 8. 4 169 5. 6 5. 6 5. 6 2000 425 10. 6 10. 6 10. 6 289 7. 2 7. 2 7. 2 2010 775 16. 0 16. 0 16. 0 494 10. 2 10. 2 10. 2 2020 1385 26. 5 26. 0 27. 1 934 17. 9 17. 5 18. 3 2030 1942 35. 6 33. 9 37. 4 1503 27. 5 26. 3 28. 9 UN Population Database. 1959 2 1 2 20 UN Population Database
3 1 CPF CPF 2 GDP % GDP 1990 15. 4 - - - 1991 16. 0 - - - 1992 16. 9 - - - 1993 17. 0 - - - 1994 17. 3 - - - 1995 16. 4 20. 8 - - 1996 16. 5 21. 1 - - 1997 16. 0 22. 0 - - 1998 14. 6 22. 7 - - 1999 15. 2 24. 7 - - 2000 15. 4 23. 1 - - 2001 15. 3 20. 3 - - 2002 13. 3 18. 5 - - 2003 13. 0 18. 9 - - 2004 12. 2 19. 3 - - 2005 11. 8 20. 3 27. 7 54. 9 2006 12. 1 20. 6 23. 8 54. 9 2007 13. 1 19. 8 23. 2 54. 5 2008 13. 8 19. 0 27. 9 54. 5 2009 NA. NA. 27. 8 54. 6 WDI. 30 1 2008 61. 65% = / 100% 40% 35 60 20-40% 21
4 GDP 2 GDP 1977 CPF 1955-1987 1985 40% 29% 1986 4 1 1988 7 CPF 55 29% 30% 1989 7 55 2 CPF. 22
1989-1992 55 2 55 1992 6% 7% 5 1999 1993-1998 1997 55 10 10 6 55 2-5. 5% 65 8% 7% 2000 6 55 2% 12% 2% 55-65 0. 5% 65 0. 5% 2001 55 4% CPF 3 55 1-1. 5% 55-60 9% 10. 5% 60-65 0. 5% 65 7. 5% 8. 5% 2002 ERC ERC ERC 2003 55 16% 13% 3% 3-4% 1% 35-45 50-55 55 2004 3 2005 50-55 2% 1% 3% 2006 50-55 30% 27% 2% 1% 50-55 15% 12% 7 2007 1. 5% 1% 0. 5% 2009 50 20% 14. 5% 34. 5% 50 1500 1500-4500 3 23
3 1500-4500 % % % 50 14. 5 20 34. 5 > 50-55 10. 5 18 28. 5 > 55-60 7. 5 12. 5 20 > 60-65 5 7. 5 12. 5 > 65 5 5 10 CPF. 55 1975-2005 1 1. 34 3. 23 2 1978 0. 779 2008 1. 61 1998-2008 1. 4% 1988-1998 3. 1% 1978-1988 4. 4% 3 3. 0% 2. 2% 2. 1% 4 4 % % 1968-1978 10. 3 1978-1988 4. 4 2. 1 1988-1998 3. 1 2. 2 1998-2008 1. 4 3. 0 CPF. 3 1976-2008 3 1981 1993 1995 1993 1995 1 2 24 3 CPF
CPF. 3 2008 2009 55 25. 3% 26. 3% 1% 10 55 1999 18. 3% 2009 26. 3% 25-55 1999 70. 8% 2009 63. 5% 25 10. 1% 9. 7% 2009 60 1999 35-40 CPF CPF 2009 CPF 1 CPF CPF 1987 CPF CPF 20 55 2008 1 1 55 2009 1 1 CPF CPF 1. 5 2009 8 1 55 4 2004-2008 4 1 25
2004 2120 2008 15830 7 5 2004-2008 CPF 6 7 2008 2008 55 70% 14000 2008 80% 4 2004-2008 5 CPF. CPF. 6 2008 7 2008 CPF. CPF. 26
1 1 S. Vasoo James Lee Singapore Social Development Housing and the Central Provident Fund International Journal of Social Welfare 2001 10 pp. 276-283. 2 Linda Low How Singapore s Central Provident Fund Fares in Social Security and Social Policy Social Policy & Society 2004 3 pp. 301-310. 1 27
3 Linda Low Ensuring a Moral and Social Economy in Singapore International Journal of Social Ecnomics 1999 Vol. 26 No. 7 /8 /9 pp. 1078-1090. 4 David McCarthy Olivia S. Mitchell John Piggott Asset Rich and Cash Poor Retirement Provision and Housing Policy in Singapore Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 2002 1 3 pp. 197-222. 5 William K. M. Lee Income Protection and the Elderly An Examination of Social Security Policy in Singapore. Journal of Cross-Cultural Gerontology 1998 13 pp. 291-307. 6 Phua Kai Hong The Saving Approach to Financing Long-term Care in Singapore Journal of Aging & Social Policy 2001 Vol. 13 No. 2 /3 pp. 169-183. 7 Benedict S. K. Koh Olivia S. Mitchell Toto Tanuwidjaja Joelle Fong Investment Patterns in Singapore s Central Provident Fund System Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 2008 7 1 pp. 37-65. Research on the Transition and Its Implications of Singapore s Central Provident Fund system in the Perspective of Four-dimensional Conditions GUO Lin Department of Sociology Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074 Hubei Department of Economics Lund University Sweden Lund 22007 Abstract There is lack of research on Singapore s Central Provident Fund system CPF in the perspective of relationship between conditions and transition. On the basis of analysing the four-dimensional conditions which are the conditions of population politics society and economics of CPF the paper researches on the transition and its features of CPF. What s more the paper discusses the implications for the sustainable development of Chinese social security system. It is shown that it has interaction between the CPF s transition and the four-dimensional conditions. On the one hand the former could make the latter stable on the other hand the latter has impact on the former. It should be pointed that in order to reach the goal of sustainable development for Chinese social security system the system should be compatible with its conditions. Key words Central Provident Fund four-dimensional conditions transition of system interaction 28