untitled

2008 11 10 2006 52701 6890 0.09 9.92% 2007 228631 67009 0.84 64.10% 2008Q3 110923 30569 0.38 22.63% 2008E 133097 32170 0.40 24.34% 2009E 116994 21057 0.26 13.98% 2007 2008 2007 132.65% 73.48% 2008 94.32% 73.60% 2008 3 22.63% B 2008 3.22 24.34% 20.24 43.40 3-3-1

07 08 2007 2006 42.4% 2007 132.65% 2006 125% 2008 70% 9 73.48% 2007 2008 10 470 08 3 09 8 2010 10 A 1 A WIND 3-3-2

2 350000 140.00% 300000 120.00% 250000 100.00% 200000 80.00% 150000 60.00% 100000 40.00% 50000 20.00% 0 0.00% WIND 32006.01-2008.10 WIND 4 GDP WIND 2007 670 2008 1-10 1573 65% 2798 10 180% 78% 3-3-3

2 2008 9 5 14% 35% 90 3-3-4

52007 2008 3 WIND 6 65% WIND 1996-2007 12% 5.74% 27% 3-3-5

7 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% WIND 8 www.datagraph.com.cn 92004 4% 12% 10% 4% 70% CEIC 3-3-6

102004 CEIC QFII Wind 2008 10 31 60 18651.36 2007 43% 2008 9 69 QFII 53 106.7, 2006 93.45 16.25 QFII 11 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Wind 3-3-7

12 Wind 13QFII Wind 2007 12 2.9 7035.76 24.72 5% 15% 2007 7 25 15 3-3-8

14 www.datagraph.com.cn 15 www.datagraph.com.cn 3-3-9

2008 4 23 2008 6 1 16 3-3-10

17 6 42 83 142 81 134 39 2005 10 27 2007 3-3-11

18 199212 20042 20052007 3-3-12

2005 2007 6 A AAAAAABBBBBBBCCCCCCC DE 5 11 A B C D E 2006 7 20 2007 8 21 2007 7 =-- 3-3-13

-- --/+ 3-3-14

4 06 2006 2007 288.89 849.12 05-8,819 2006 2007 46.92 407.37% 06 185.07% 222.3 2002-2007 20 303%276% 385%1303% 5960% 192007 2008 2008 2007 3-3-15

1975 1976 50% 1985 20%2005 15% T+0 3-3-16

20 2006() 2005() 2005() 1985() 1980() 1976() 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 21 JP 3-3-17

22 2008 10 31 20062007 2008 23 93-99 BloomBerg 3-3-18

24 99-08 BloomBerg 3-3-19

1988 10 6 10,000 2001 10 80,000 2004 11 2005 10 8 13 2007 7 BBB AA 2 A 15 BBB 16 30 25 () 280,000,000 35.00 118,730,000 14.84 84,820,000 10.60 73,000,000 9.12 60,000,000 7.50 53,613,033 6.70 40,000,000 5.00 27,210,884 3.40 17,259,116 2.16 13,053,633 1.63 12,290,000 1.54 10,000,000 1.25 5,333,334 0.67 3-3-20

4,690,000 0.59 800,000,000 100 07 7 BBB 33 26 1 27 2003 1 55.1% 2004 1 57.11% 2005 1 59.51% 2006 1 59.05% 2007 1 56.58% 24 25 50 2007 2008 6.5 60% 0.04% 0.04% 3-3-21

2 2006 11.74%07 10.77% 3 06 07 4 2007 2 2007 1900 5 3-3-22

07 12 2 2007 0.68% 2007 7906.59 2006 89.78%2007 96.68% B 2007 3-3-23

64.1% B 47.19% B 2007 41.25% B 28 B % % % 12.64 46.20 31.65 11.04 19.09 17.29 12.56 65.70 15.57 9.62 41.88 34.13 10.79 32.35 26.52 12.36 53.05 27.09 7.80 49.48 25.81 6.77 25.68 24.70 12.77 56.63 26.37 6.41 48.57 28.61 7.40 67.84 31.17 5.85 36.17 32.49 7.88 48.75 21.10 10.77 55.18 25.50 8.82 52.55 22.72 9.95 35.52 25.84 5.41 64.10 41.25 9.33 47.19 26.93 2007 3-3-24

PB ROE/COE ROE-g/COE-g ROE PB ROE PB 29Morgan Stanley 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2Q96 4Q96 2Q97 4Q97 2Q98 4Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 PB ROE Bloomberg 30Merrill Lynch 4.0 60% 3.5 50% 3.0 40% 2.5 30% 2.0 20% 1.5 10% 1.0 0% 0.5-1 0 % 0.0-2 0 % 2Q97 4Q97 2Q98 4Q98 2Q99 4Q99 2Q00 4Q00 2Q01 4Q01 2Q02 4Q02 2Q03 4Q03 2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 PB ROE Bloomberg 31Goldman Sachs 4.5 40% 4.0 35% 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 0.5 5% 0.0 0% 3Q99 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 PB ROE Bloomberg 3-3-25

PB PB 2 PB 3-5 32 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Growth PB Bloomberg A 2007 A 3-3-26

ROE groe-g/coeg 1A 1 2008 9 30 ST 1446 2008 08 919 PB 919 PB 2008 9 30 1.52.5 33 2008 9 30 PB 919 PB 34 3-3-27

34 2008 3 31 PB P B 2.73 0.06 2.25 3.71 1.69 6.69 2.24 12.85 0.61 PB 919 2008 9 30 PB PB 35-37 PB 35PB 3-3-28

36PB 37PB 38 PB 38 PB ROE Beta PB 1 ROE 0.4573 1 0.0589 0.0150 1 Beta -0.3769-0.1766-0.0253 1 PB 3-3-29

2 PB PB PB PB=5.061282+0.071233 ROE+0.003196-2.88069 Beta S.E. of regression 1.41058 39PB PB 935 t Intercept 5.061282 0.30369 16.66596 0.00000 % 0.071233 0.004963 14.35147 0.00000 % 0.003196 0.001955 1.63522 0.10235 Beta -2.88069 0.265475-10.8511 0.00000 F-statistic 131.7728 0.00000 R Square 0.301697 Adjusted R Square 0.299407 S.E. of regression 1.41058 R 2 39 R Square=0.301697 [0,1] 3-3-30

0.9 0.5 0.301697 F R Square F H : β = β = β = β = β = 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 F = 2 ( ) / 2 r yˆ y k e /( n k 1) Fkn (, k 1) P < α, H0 β i α P P P α 39 F P 8 t t H : β 0 0 i = βi t = S β i tn ( k 1) P <α H0 39 t P 0.000000.000000.102350.00000 10% t 3-3-31

3839 40 40PB 41PB 42PB 3-3-32

43 2008 2010 17.41%-13.14% 1.283 PB PB=5.061282+0.071233 ROE+0.003196-2.88069 Beta =5.06128+0.071233 17.41+0.003196 (-13.41)-2.8807 1.283 =1.3773408 PB 1.41058 95% [03.697745] 1.85 PB 1.69 25.00 2 A 2008 93.29 12.77 114.17 23.85 3-3-33

44 1277 2385 2547 37491 5903.71 4736 940 1672 2184 35658 4565.57 4045 9329 11417 8530 97110 25221 12459 2008 2007 45 572 542 31 49-30 148 43 41 0.22 0 4 40 72.46% 75.88% 3.98% 6.90% -3.79% 20.76% 5.46% 5.70% 0.03% 0.00% 0.47% 5.60% 2008 2008 0.61% 0.65% 46 0.61% 0.65% 24 41 25 19 3-3-34

2008 B / 47 / / 2008 9.40 23.85 2006 4.30 2.79 2007 73.60% 70.08% 48 2007 2008 2007 2008 710.75 939.50 1387.98 1671.51 1045.31 1276.53 2142.37 2385.10 / 69.89% 73.60% 64.79% 70.08% 2008 2006 89.78% 2007 96.68% 2008 94.32% 92.77% 3-3-35

49 94.32% 92.77% 53.27% 74.42% 24.49% 12.30% 12.02% 1.92% 2.53% 0.00% 0.10% 0.74% 1.91% 1.16% 0.00% 2.23% 1.95% 3.85% 3.22% 1.11% 2008 2008 38.10% 28.76% 0.65% 0.61% 2006 9 28 2007 1 18 322885075 30.84 43.40 1ROE/COE ROE/COE ROE-g/COEg ROE ROE g COE COE 3-3-36

ROE 11 ROE ROE 19.65% ROE ROE 18% ROE 17% ROE 50 ROA 2006 2006 42.4% 2007 132.65% 2008 90.16% 5% 8 2 8 3.70%, 3.50%3.70%+3.50%/2=3.60% ERP t = Rm t R f ERPt t Rmt t Rf 7.34% 3-3-37 51 0.91% 0.29% 0.61% 7.34%

ROE 17.00%COE 13.00% 5% (ROE-g)/(COE-g) 1.50xpb 2008 9 30 1.69 8 2.535 20.26 52 3.60% 1.28 7.34% 5.00% COE 13.00% ROE 17.00% 1.5 2.535 53 ROE/COE COE 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 11.00% 3.14 3.25 3.38 3.53 3.72 12.00% 2.75 2.82 2.90 2.99 3.10 13.00% 2.44 2.49 2.54 2.59 2.66 14.00% 2.20 2.22 2.25 2.29 2.32 15.00% 2.00 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.07 16.00% 1.41 1.84 1.38 1.85 1.86 ROE 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 19.00% 1.67 1.71 1.75 1.80 1.86 18.00% 1.56 1.59 1.63 1.67 1.71 17.00% 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.53 1.57 16.00% 1.33 1.35 1.38 1.40 1.43 15.00% 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.27 1.29 14.00% 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.14 2 3-3-38

V t= n1 t= 1 t= n2 t t FCFE t /(1 + r ) + FCFE t /(1 + r) + Pn /(1 + r) 2 t= n1 + 1 FCFEt= t FCFEn 2 + 1 pn = 2 ( r g) r= COE 13.00% n = 0.25 1 2008 2008 3 n = 4.25 2 2012 EBIT 54 EBIT 2006 2007 3Q2008 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E EBIT 129.19 1161.12 481.29 525.64 352.67 403.12 460.96 522.52 552.63 EBIT(1-T 129.19 731.50 351.34 394.23 264.50 302.34 345.72 391.89 414.47 EBIT - 795.29% -58.55% -54.73% -32.91% 14.31% 14.35% 13.35% 5.76% 2006 2007 08 27%2009 25% n2 3-3-39

55 2013 2006 2007 1-3Q2008 4Q2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EBIT(1-T 129.19 731.5 351.34 42.89 264.50 302.34 345.72 391.89 414.47 33.59 31.39 28.22 4.18 33.40 34.40 35.40 36.40 37.40 51.75 833.16-43.56-44.32 147.04 164.68 176.66 208.04 197.88 36.00 28.00 28.00 2.00 32.00 35.00 38.00 40.00 45.00 FCFE 59.33 114.19 395.12 89.39 118.86 137.06 166.46 180.25 208.99 13.00% 0.25 1.25 2.25 3.25 4.25 0.9699 0.8583 0.7596 0.6722 0.5949 FCFE 86.70 102.02 90.29 92.13 99.02 5.00% 2612.37 1554.00 2024.17 800.00 2.53 2008 4 56 COE 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 11.00% 3.01 3.19 3.41 3.66 3.97 12.00% 2.62 2.75 2.91 3.08 3.29 13.00% 2.31 2.42 2.53 2.66 2.81 14.00% 2.07 2.15 2.24 2.34 2.45 15.00% 1.88 1.94 2.01 2.08 2.17 16.00% 1.71 1.76 1.82 1.88 1.94 2.53 20.24 A 25.00 3-3-40

30.84 43.4 ROE/COE PB 1.50 20.26 20.24 20.24 43.40 3-3-41

57 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 527.01 2286.31 1330.97 1169.94 1339.07 1 439.01 1954.85 1157.49 954.28 1071.76 356.85 1621.14 1074.07 828.53 908.29 36.69 34.25 66.43 116.25 151.12 - - - - - 18.02 23.01 17.00 9.50 12.35 - - - - - 2 - - 0.26 14.00 22.40 3 21.02 49.70 49.70 65.60 85.28 4 61.91 246.26 110.82 116.36 139.63 5-0.91 22.79-7.00 1.20 1.50 6-0.56-1.44-1.30-1.50-1.50 7 6.55 14.17 21.00 20.00 20.00 422.02 1082.69 790.27 838.47 963.90 30.79 125.70 74.53 64.35 73.65 330.32 943.14 716.78 774.13 890.25 54.21 1.04-1.20 0.00 0.00 6.70 12.81 0.15 0.00 0.00 104.99 1203.63 540.70 331.46 375.18-0.25-59.90-28.28-5.00-6.50 104.74 1143.72 512.42 326.46 368.68 45.00 421.08 138.35 81.62 92.17 59.74 722.64 374.06 244.85 276.51 68.90 670.09 321.70 210.57 237.80 800.00 800.00 800.00 800.00 800.00 EPS 0.09 0.84 0.41 0.26 0.30 0.87 1.31 1.65 1.88 2.13 2008 2009 2010 3.22 2.11 2.38 2007 46.92 2000 2008 10 1030 2008 3-3-42

2008 1000 2009 700 2010 910 2007 A 18.98 0.68% 08 0.65% 2008 2009 08 07 09 2008 0.23% 2009 0.215%2010 0.185% 2008 3 2008 2008 11082 2009 11636 2008 2009 6583 11524 2008 2009 2008 71678 2007 22635 2008 2009 2010 77413 89025 2008 5734 11612 3-3-43

3-3-44

6 / 15 515 55 5 3-3-45

3-3-46