35 2 2011 3 Vol. 35 No. 2 March 2011 83 Population Research * 2 100872 Birth Interval between First and Second Child and Its Policy Implications Liu Shuang Zou Mingru Abstract Using data of international and national fertility surveys this paper analyzes the characteristics and changing trends of average birth intervals between the first and second child in different countries and periods with a focus on Chinese women in recent decades.analytical results indicate that there are some common traits of birth intervals between the first and second child of women in different societies and a two - year interval is the lowest limit of average natural birth intervals. It s necessary to execute restricted regulations of birth intervals between the first and second child in former fertility policies and it has already achieved great effect.however with the change of people s fertility desire and voluntarily delay of the second birth it is increasingly difficult to intervene in birth intervals by fertility policy and it will provide good opportunities and conditions for government to adjust and improve relevant fertility policy. Keywords Average Length of Birth Intervals Natural Birth Interval Fertility Policy Authors Liu Shuang is Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China.Beijing 100872.Email liushuang @ ruc.edu.cn Zou Mingru is PhD Candidate Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Beijing 100872. * 05JJD840146

84 35 1992 2 1980-20 2002 14 1989 1995 1990

2 85 1 20 80 20 80 4 28 30 1981 1 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1 1 1 30 1 50 60 2. 7 ~ 3. 0 2 1970 1980 2 3 30 2. 3 1. 5 4 50 1 1991 170 ~ 171

86 35 3 70 1980 2 50 1 Table 1 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Chinese Women in Reproductive Ages 1950-1980 1950 21. 92 24. 86 2. 94 1955 21. 89 24. 77 2. 88 1960 22. 17 25. 01 2. 85 1965 22. 33 25. 03 2. 69 1970 22. 46 24. 96 2. 50 1975 23. 34 25. 36 2. 02 1980 24. 39 26. 35 1. 96. 1 II. 1988 2 20 80 20 80 30 20 4 2 2 Table 2 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Chinese Women in Reproductive Ages since Late 1980s 23. 56 26. 61 3. 05 1989 23. 08 26. 44 3. 36 24. 49 28. 84 4. 35 1999 ~ 2000 * 23. 89 28. 50 4. 61 24. 64 29. 79 5. 15 2004 ~ 2005 * 23. 99 29. 46 5. 47 1. 1990. 1993 2. 2000. 2002 3 1%. 2005 1%. 2007 *

2 87 2 1 20 90 1990 1989 ~ 1990 3. 05 2000 4. 35 2005 1% 5. 15 2 4 3 2 2000 4. 61 2005 1% 5. 47 3 1960 20 60 70 1966 ~ 1972 12 United Nations 1976 60 20 40 50 60 1 3 1 United Nations. Fertility and Family Planning in Europe Around 1970 A Comparative Study of Twelve National Surveys. New York 1976.

88 35 Table 3 3 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages in Some European Countries and U. S. A * 1970 ** 1. 87 1. 96 22. 5 3. 1 1970 2. 02 2. 04 22. 4 3. 1 1967 1. 93 1. 81 23. 0 2. 9 1972 2. 16 2. 12 22. 6 2. 8 1972 2. 47 2. 20 23. 0 3. 1 1970 2. 31 2. 32 21. 3 2. 6 1970 2. 22 2. 13-2. 9 United Nations. Fertility and Family Planning in Europe Around 1970 A Comparative Study of Twelve National Surveys. New York 1976 1 20 ~ 44 15 ~ 44 * ** 12 7 4 Table 4 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages by Duration of Marriage in Some European Countries and U. S. A 0 ~ 4 5 ~ 9 10 ~ 14 15 ~ 19 20 2. 0 3. 1 3. 2 3. 5 3. 3 2. 5 2. 7 3. 1 3. 3 3. 8 1. 7 2. 3 2. 8 3. 4 3. 8 2. 0 2. 8 2. 9 3. 0 3. 0 2. 2 2. 9 3. 3 3. 1 3. 1 2. 0 2. 4 2. 6 2. 7 3. 1 2. 1 2. 8 3. 2 3. 3 2. 8 3 3 1. 8 ~ 2. 4 22. 4 ~ 23. 0 1 2. 6 ~ 3. 1 2 20 40 50 60 4 15 ~ 19 20

2 89 3 4 3 0 ~ 4 2. 5 3. 5 2. 5 ~ 3. 5 4 0 ~ 4 5 0 ~ 4 2 4 20 USAID 20 DHS Gora Mboup and Tulshi Saha 1998 5 ~ 7 1990 ~ 1995 6 trimean 1 20 90 5 ~ 7 3 ~ 5 2 ~ 5 1 6 4 ~ 5 2 ~ 3 2 2. 4 ~ 3. 0 3. 2 2 3 28 2 Gora Mboup and Tulshi Saha 1998 1 2 trimean TM trimean TM TM = Q1 + 2Q2 + Q3 /4 TM - 0. 097 0. 622 0. 1

90 35 5 Table 5 1 1990 ~ 1995 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages in Some African Countries 1990-1995 2 3 2. 8 6. 5 2. 6 5. 8 2. 4 5. 1 3. 2 5. 2 2. 4 5. 4 2. 3 6. 1 2. 5 6. 7 2. 3 7. 0 2. 8 5. 4 2. 3 6. 0 2. 5 6. 2 2. 6 6. 0 2. 5 6. 5 3. 0 4. 3 Gora Mboup & Tulshi Saha. Fertility Levels Trends and Differentials. DHS Comparative Studies No. 28 Macro International Inc. Calverton Maryland USA. 1998 1 DHS - Ⅱ DHS - Ⅲ 1991 ~ 1997 2 14 3. 2 2. 3 3 2 1 6 7 6 1990 ~ 1995 Table 6 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages in Some Asian and North - African Countries 1990-1995 3. 0 3. 4 2. 1 3. 9 3. 0 3. 0 1. 6 5. 6 2. 2 4. 0 2. 2 4. 9 2. 1 4. 1 2. 6 2. 5 5 DHS 28 2 ~ 3 3 ~ 4 4 ~ 5 5 ~ 6

2 91 7 1990 ~ 1995 Table 7 Average Birth Interval between the First and Second Child among Women in Reproductive Ages in Some Latin - American and Caribbean Countries 1990-1995 2. 3 4. 8 2. 3 3. 7 2. 6 2. 8 2. 2 3. 3 2. 4 4. 7 2. 4 3. 5 5 5 2 3 2 2. 5 ~ 3 70 1980 2 20 80 21 4 2005 5

92 35 2005 5. 5 30 3 4 2 2 2 20 90

2 93 /References 1.. 1992 6 1 ~ 7 Gu Baochang. 1992. Fertility and Fertility Transition Number Timing and Sex of Chidren. Population Research 6 1-7. 2.. 1989 5 16 ~ 20 Qiao Xiaochun. 1989. Exploration of Population Development Target under Different Birth Intervals and Parities. Population and Economics 5 16-20. 3. 1979 ~ 1983. 1990 6 20 ~ 24 Tu Ping. 1990. Analysis on Distribution of Birth Interval by Parity in Shanxi Province 1979-1983. Chinese Journal of Population Science 6 20-24. 4.. 1995 1 36 ~ 40 Chen Jianli. 1995. Analysis on Trend of Birth Interval between the First and Second Child. Population and Economics 1 36-40. 5 United Nations. 1976. Fertility and Family Planning in Europe Around 1970 A Comparative Study of Twelve National Surveys. New York. 6 Gora Mboup and Tulshi Saha. 1998. Fertility Levels Trends and Differentials. DHS Comparative Studies No. 28 Macro International Inc. Calverton Maryland USA. 2011-02