2018 2 D82 A 1005-4812(2018)02-0036-50 2016 16ZDA096 2015 36

6 2016 2 2015 9 2015 6 2016 6 2016 6 2016 2 2015 6 2016 2 2015 3 2016 10 2014 3 2016 6 2016 2 2016 1 2016 6 2016 4 2015 6 2016 2 2015 6 2015 6 2016 2 2016 3 2016 2 2015 6 2016 6 2016 3 2015 6 2016 2 2016 5 2015 12. 2015 1 2015 11 37

2018 2 Starostin Nikita 2016 1 94 http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2015-04/6186201.html 38

Andrew Scobell, Alireza Nader, China in the Middle East: The Wary Dragon, the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, 2016, pp.1-2. Jon B. Alterman, The Other Side of the World, China, the United States, and the Struggle for Middle East Security, Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2017, pp.6-8, p.16. 2014 2015 4 44-45 57 10 200 Andrew Erickson, More Willing and Able: Charting China s International Security Activism, Center for a New American Security, May 2015, http://www.cnas.org/sites/default/files/publications-pdf/cnas_morewillingandable_final.pdf 39

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2018 2 1 2013 50.00 62.50 39.63 63.88 41.29 72.50 52.79 66.75 46.75 72.50 67.04 49.71 55.67 67.58 2016 2 118 PRSPolitical Risk Service International Country Risk Guide ICRG 12 146 100 2013 2013 2015 2015 2016 42

2016 2030 2021 2030 2013 61% 2015 34%2016 53% 28% 2016 1 1+2+3 2016 2017 33 2016 6 70 2016 1 14 43

2018 2 2016 1 22 Jon B. Alterman, The Other Side of the World, China, the United States, and the Struggle for Middle East Security, Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2017, p.22. 2016 33 44

1 2016 33 45

2018 2 http://news.china.com/international/1000/20160923/23624637.html 2016 3 41-61 2015-20162016 25 46

2015 6 5 2016 30-32 2015 9 27 47

2018 2 2015-2016 25 http://news.china.com/international/1000/20160923/23624637.html 48

200083 2018 1 2016 2 61 2014 8 10 49

2018 2 The Political Risks and Security Threats of the Belt and Road Construction in the Middle East and Countermeasures Liu Zhongmin Abstract: Based on review of literatures, this article objectively analyzed the political risks and security threats of the Belt and Road construction in the Middle East and put forward some countermeasures. At first, the author analyzed political risks from three levels the game of the big powers, regional politics, and internal politics of the Middle Eastern countries. Facing these risks, China should promote Sino-US mutual understanding and strategic interaction, avoid getting involved in regional geopolitical confrontation, carry out accurate policies according to different political risks in the Middle Eastern countries. Then the author discussed security threats including regional conflicts and terrorism. As for countermeasures for dealing with security threats, China should accurately assess regional security risks, shape the Middle East region with China s new security outlook, promote resolving the Middle East hot issues with using creatively non-interference in internal affairs of other countries, help the Middle Eastern countries to enforce security capability construction, and enhance China s moderate military presence in the Middle East. Key Words: The Middle East; The Belt and Road; Political Risks; Security Threats 50