07 8 ( 50%) 3 ( ) 3 6 B.EichengreenD.ParkandK.Shin GrowthSlowdownsRedux:New Evidence onthemiddle-incometrap NBER WorkingPaperno ;M.S.AiyarM.R. A

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2 07 8 ( 50%) 3 ( ) 3 6 B.EichengreenD.ParkandK.Shin GrowthSlowdownsRedux:New Evidence onthemiddle-incometrap NBER WorkingPaperno ;M.S.AiyarM.R. A.Duvaland M.D.Puy GrowthSlowdownsandtheMiddle-IncomeTrap IMF Working Paperno.3/703;L.YeandP.E.Robertson OntheExistenceofa Middle-Income Trap Economic Recordvol.9no.9706pp htp://sh.xinhuanet.com/06-03/8/c htm. P.M.Romer EndogenousTechnological Change Journalof PoliticalEconomy vol.98no.5990pp.7-0;r.e.lucas Onthe Mechanicsof Economic Development Journalof Monetary Economicsvol.988pp.3-4.

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5 ; : () ; () ;(3) ( ) GDP 50 GDP 50 GDP GDP ( GDP ) GDP 3 3 I.S.GilH.J.Kharasand D.BhatasaliAn East Asian Renaissance:Ideasfor Economic GrowthWashingtonD.C.:WorldBankPress007. X.H.HanandS.J.Wei Re-ExaminingtheMiddle-IncomeTrap Hypothesis:Whatto Rejectand Whatto Revive Asian Development BankEcomonic Working Paper Seriesno R.J.Barro EconomicGrowthandConvergenceAppliedEspecialytoChina NBER WorkingPaperno

6 07 8 Penn WorldTable (PWT) GDP GDP GDP GDP 60% GDP GDP 0% 60% ( ) GDP GDP 0% (75.00%) 3 (3.%) (.79%) 56 (00%) 7 (8.89%) 59 (65.56%) 4 (5.56%) 90 (00%) 0 (0%) 3 (4.9%) 8 (85.7%) (00%) (35.33%) 75 (44.9%) 33 (9.76%) 67 (00%) : ( 75%) 00 3 ( 3.%) (.79%) ( 8.89%) ( 65.56%) 4 ( 5.56%) 50 3 ( 3.%) ; 4 ( 5.56%) ( ) 50 75% 65.56% 85.7% ( ) : (R.J.Baro) : 66 Penn WorldTableVersion9.0www.ggdc.net/pwt

7 ( ) % 3.% 65.56% 75% ( ) : (O.Galor) (D.N.Weil) ( ) e t+=e t (gt+) gt+=gt (e t L t ) e t+ t+ gt+ t+ L t g ( ) e ( ) (0g l ) (e u g u ) (e h g h ) (e u g u ) (0g l ) (e h g h ) (e u g u ) (e h g h ) (0 g l ) (e u g u ) R.J.Barro EconomicGrowthandConvergenceAppliedEspecialytoChina ; : 06 0 O.Galorand D.N.Weil PopulationTechnologyand Growth:From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond The American Economic Reviewvol.90no.4000pp

8 07 8 : : (e h g h ) (e h g h ) : ( ) 68 Robert M.Solow A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth The Quarterly Journalof Economicsvol.70no.956pp F.HayashiandE.Prescot TheDepressingEfectofAgricultureInstitutionsonthe PrewarJapaneseEconomy Journalof PoliticalEconomyvol.6no.4008pp ; : 03

9 () () (institution) ; 3 4 (3) (4) 6 7 (5) (K.Ohno) : : : 999 D.AcemogluS.JohnsonandJ.A.Robinson TheColonialOriginsofComparative Development:AnEmpiricalInvestigation The American Economic Reviewvol.9 no.500pp W.T.Woo Geting MalaysiaOutoftheMiddle-IncomeTrap SSRNno : : : 06 : : 0 3 :

10 07 8 ( ) ( ) K.Ohno Overcomingthe MiddleIncomeTrap:TheChalengeforEastAsian High Performers WorkingPaperpresentedatWBConference009. : 00 : 07 6 : 03 9

11 ; : ( ) : : Y t=(a tl t ) α K -α t- () K t= ( -d )K t-+i t () I t=sy t (3) L t= ( +n )L t- (4) Y t t A t L t K t- t- I t d s n () : : 5 3 : 5 : 4 4 : 50 7

12 07 8 ;() ;(3) ;(4) t- K t- (t ) () (4) A t A t A () (3) L t : Aα yt= k (+n) -α -α t- (5) k t= -d +n kt-+it (6) i t=syt yt Y t /L t k t K t /L t i t I t /L t (5) (7) yt (6) : (7) k t=δk t--θk -α t- (8) k t=k t-k t- θ= d+n +n >0 δ= saα (9) (+n) -α (5) (9) (8) δk t- -α syt δk t- -α ( syt) θk t- k t k t=0 k t ( ) k 7

13 ( )k t k 0 k 0 ( k 0 ) yt k t A k y A A A (9) δ 3 δ A A A A k y GDP 3 ( k 0 ) ( k) ( k) 73

14 07 8 ( ) ( ) : 烄 θf [ Aft- ( -ε )-A t- ]+θaa t- A ft- ( -ε )-A t->0 A t-a t-= 烅 (0) 烆 θaa t- A ft t (0) A t-a t- θf [ A ft- ( -ε )-A t- ]θf ε (0) ; θaa t- θa ( ) (0) ( A ft- ( -ε )> A t- ) θf θa x f : A ft= (+x f )A ft- () (0) () ( ) : 74 :D.AcemogluP.AghionandF.Ziliboti DistancetoFrontier SelectionandEconomicGrowth Journalofthe European Economic Asociationvol.4 no.006pp.37-74;j.vandenbusschep.aghionandc.meghir GrowthDistanceto FrontierandCompositionofHumanCapital Journalof Economic Growthvol.no. 006pp.97-7;J.Benhabiband M.M.Spiegel TheRoleofHumanCapitalinEconomic DevelopmentEvidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data Journal of Monetary Economicsvol.34no.994pp ( ) (0) η>a ft- ( -ε )-A t->0 A ft- ( -ε )-A t- η

15 x t ( ) x t (A t-a t- )/ A t- ;x x t t +! x t x (0) () : 烄 x= xf θa x f 烅烆 θa () θa>x f x t ( ) A t->a ft- ( -ε ) x=θa θa x f ( ) x t x f 0 x t θa x t x t x f x t ( ) x=x f θa x f : θa x f-θa : GDP GDP GDP θa ( ) x f ( ) θa x f 75

16 07 8 θa>x f θa>x f ( ) θa θa A t GDP 4% 70% ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 (P.M. Romer) 4 ( ) C.Freeman The NationalSystem ofinnovation in HistoricalPerspective CambridgeJournalof Economicsvol.9no.995pp.5-4. R.R.Nelson and S.G.WinterAn Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change CambridgeMA:BelknapPress98. J.A.SchumpeterThe Theoryof Economic Development:AnInquiryinto Profits CapitalCreditInterestand Business Cycle Cambridge: Harvard University Press934p.88. P.M.Romer EndogenousTechnologicalChange.

17 (R.D.Atkinson) : ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 980 ( ) 3 3 OECDNationalInnovation SystemsParis:OECDPublications997. R.D.Atkinson UnderstandingtheU.S.NationalInnovationSystem TheInformation Technology andinnovation FoundationJune04. R.D.Atkinson UnderstandingtheU.S.NationalInnovationSystem. 77

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25 : x t (A t-a t- )/A t- h t A ft /A t x t ( ) ( ) ;h t (0) A ft- ( -ε )-A t->0 h t->/ (-ε) h t->/ (- ε) (0) () : h t= θf (+x f )A ft- [A ft- ( -ε )-A t- ]+θaa t-+a t- (+x f )h t- = θf ( -ε )h t-+(+θa-θf) (0) : x t= θf [A ft- ( -ε )-A t- ]+θaa t- A t- =θf ( -ε )h t--θf+θa (0) () : h t= +xf h t- x t=θa +θa (0) () : 烄 (+x f )h t- θf ( -ε )h h t->/ (-ε) t-+(+θa-θf) h t=烅 +x f h t- 烆 +θa (3) 烄 θf ( -ε )h t--θf+θa h t->/ (-ε) x t=烅 (4) 烆 θa h t (3) ; h t x t (4) (3) h t : ( +x f )h f (h) θf ( -ε )h+ (+θa-θf) g (h) +xf h +θa (3) : 烄 h f (h t- ) h t->/ (-ε) t=烅烆 g (h t- ) h t- h t ( ) g (h) f 5 f (h) g (h) f (h) g (h) h t- h t θa<x f f (h) g (h) h t 85

26 ht θa<x f 45 0 E 0 h : h = -ε + xf-θa θf (-ε) θa<x f h > (5) θa>x f θa<x f θa>x f h t 6 θa<xf ht 7 θa>xf ht h t h 0 h 0 θa<x f h t h x f h t 0 ( 7) ( 6); θa> h t x t θa<x f h t h (4) x t θf-ε ( )h -θf+θa (5) h θf ( -ε )h - θf+θa=x f x t x f θa>x f (4) x t θa 86 :

27 ABSTRACTS ofurbanspaceintheageofrisk. (4)BuildingaNationalInnovationSystem withchinesecharacteristicstovaultover themiddleincometrap Gong GangWei XiyeYang Xianmingetal. 6 Somedoubtshavebeenexpressedovertheexistenceofthemiddleincometrap. Onthe basis ofatransition probability matrix and the uniform growth theory interpretationweclarifythequeriesaboutitsexistenceusing a growththeory frameworktoresearchthecausesmechanismsandconditionsofthemiddleincome trapin developing countriesfrom the perspective oftechnologicalprogress.our findingsshowthatwhetheradevelopingcountrycanescapethe middleincometrap dependsuponwhetherthetechnologicalgrowthrateitachievesthroughindependent R&Dis higherthan that offrontier countries.the construction of a national innovation system and theimplementation of an innovation-driven development strategyinchinaarelayinganinstitutionalfoundationthatwilenablethecountryto vaultoverthemiddleincometrap. (5)CorrelationoftheVirtualandtheRealEconomy:EmpiricalResearchattheLevel ofscaleandperiodicity Su ZhiFang Tong and Yin Libo 87 Thevirtualeconomy sdivergencefromtherealeconomyhasbecomeaclassic featureoftheglobaleconomicsystemandchinaisnoexception.onthebasisofthe GVAR model and macro-economic and financial data of major representativecountriesacrosstheglobeweconductedresearchfocusedontesting thecorrelationbetweenthevirtualandtherealeconomyinchinaintermsofscale andperiodicity withintheframeworkofeconomicglobalization.ourfindingsshow thatbothscaleandcyclicalfluctuationsdemonstratetheincreasingdivergenceofthe virtualand the real economy.at the level of scalethe virtual economy is unresponsivetotherealeconomy sreactiontoshocksbutis moresensitiveto shockstoitselfandhasa crowdingoutefect ontherealeconomy.atthelevelof cyclicalfluctuationstherealeconomyjusthasashort-termpilotefectonthevirtual economy.anonlineargrangercausalitytestfurtherconfirmsthefactofdivergence. Inthesecircumstancespricingandmonetarypolicycansuppressthetendencyforthe virtualeconomytodivergefrom therealeconomy.ouranalysesprovidedetailed 05

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