David Shambaugh ed. Power Shift China and Asia s New Dynamics London University of California Press 2005 Steve Chan Chi

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2 David Shambaugh ed. Power Shift China and Asia s New Dynamics London University of California Press 2005 Steve Chan China the U. S. and the Power - Transition Theory A Critique New York Routledge 2008 Charles Kupchan ed. Power in Transition The Peaceful Change of International Order New York United Nations University Press 2001 B. J. C. McKercher Transition of Power Britain's Loss of Global Pre - Eminence to the United States New York Cambridge University Press Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke eds. Parity and War Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger Ann Arbor University of Michigan Press 1996 A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler The War Ledger Chicago University of Chicago Press

3 / / Heikki Patom ki The Political Economy of Global Security War Future Crises and Changes in Global Governance New York Routledge 2008 pp F. H Hans - Joachim Braun The German Economy in the Twentieth Century The German Reich and the Federal Republic New York Routledge 1990 p F. H Angus Maddison The World Economy. A Millennial Perspective Paris OECD Development Centre 2001 pp

4 % David Calleo The German Problem Reconsidered Germany and the World Order 1870 to the Present New York Cambridge University Press 1978 p David Calleo The German Problem Reconsidered Germany and the World Order 1870 to the Present p

5 Charles Kupchan ed. Power in Transition The Peaceful Change of International Order pp Michael Doyle Liberalism and World Politics American Political Science Review Vol. 80 No pp Bruce Russett and John Oneal Triangulating Peace Democracy Interdependence and International Organizations New York W. W. Norton Clifton Morgan and Sally Campbell Domestic Structure Decisional Constraints and War So Why Kant Democracies Fight Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 35 No pp John Owen How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace International Security Vol. 19 No pp Kenneth Schultz Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises American Political Science Review Vol. 92 No pp Steve Chan China the U. S. and the Power - Transition Theory A Critique p Kenneth Bourne Britain and the Balance of Power in North America Berkeley University of California Press 1967 p

6 Ido Oren The Subjectivity of the Democratic Peace Changing U. S. Perceptions of Imperial Germany International Security Vol. 20 No pp John Vasquez The War Puzzle Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1993 John Vasquez Why Do Neighbors Fight Proximity Interaction Territoriality Journal of Peace Research Vol. 32 No pp Richard Rosecrance The Rise of the Trading State Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World New York Basic Books 1985 pp Richard Rosecrance International Security and the Virtual State States and Firms in World Politics Review of International Studies Vol. 28 No pp Patrick McDonald The Invisible Hand of Peace Capitalism the War Machine and International Relations Theory New York Cambridge University Press

7 % 52% 54% 1 / % U Paul Papayoanou Interdependence Institutions and the Balance of Power Britain Germany and World War I International Security Vol. 20 No pp Dale Copeland Economic Interdependence and War A Theory of Trade Expectations International Security Vol. 20 No pp Katherine Barbieri Economic Interdependence. Journal of Peace Research Vol. 33 No pp A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict

8 Reginald E. Welby Nazli Choucri and Robert North Nations in Conflict National Growth and International Violence San Francisco W. H. Freeman 1975 p James Retallack ed. Imperial Germany New York Oxford University Press 2008 p. 23.

9 % % p F. H James Retallack ed. Imperial Germany p David Calleo The German Problem Reconsidered Germany and the World Order 1870 to the Present 115

10 % % % % / latent hegemony Otto von Bismarck Hans - Joachim Braun The German Economy in the Twentieth Century The German Reich and the Federal Republic p Hans - Joachim Braun The German Economy in the Twentieth Century The German Reich and the Federal Republic p F. H James Retallack ed. Imperial Germany pp

11 / John A. Hobson Hans - Joachim Braun The German Economy in the Twentieth Century The German Reich and the Federal Republic p Maria Sampanis Preserving Power through Coalitions Comparing the Grand Strategy of Great Britain and the United States Westport Praeger Publishers 2003 p F. H

12 % F. H

13 / % % % % 1 / % 30% % pp David Calleo The German Problem Reconsidered Germany and the World Order 1870 to the Present 2 James Retallack ed. Imperial Germany p Maria Sampanis Preserving Power through Coalitions Comparing the Grand Strategy of Great Britain and the United States p B. R. Mitchell European Historical Statistics London Macmillan 1975 p Dale Copeland Economic Interdependence and War A Theory of Trade Expectations p David Calleo The German Problem Reconsidered Germany and the World Order 1870 to the Present pp S. L. Engerman Mercantilism and Overseas Trade in Roderick Floud and Donald Mc- Closkey eds. The Economic History of Britain since 1700 Vol. I Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1994 Table

14 Transvaal region Albert Ballin Dale Copeland Economic Interdependence and War A Theory of Trade Expectations p Dale Copeland Economic Interdependence and War A Theory of Trade Expectations p. 31.

15 Ernst Werner von Siemens 2 3 Bernhard von Bülow Alfred von Tirpitz % 2. 1% % % % pp F. H David Calleo The German Problem Reconsidered Germany and the World Order 1870 to the Present F. H F. H

16 % % % 2 1 Steven Lobell The Challenge of Hegemony Grand Strategy Trade and Domestic Politics Ann Arbor The University of Michigan Press 2003 p Dale Copeland Economic Interdependence and War A Theory of Trade Expectations p

17 % 2. 2% 2. 9% 1. 6% 42% 41% % % - 30% F. H C. L F. H

18 % - 50% % % 12% 1. 5% /4 1 / Karl Polanyi The Great Transformation The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time Boston Beacon Press 1944 p Gary Walton and Hugh Rockoff History of the American Economy Mason Ohio South - Western 2010 p. 179 Figure Stanley Engerman and Robert Gallman eds. The Cambridge Economic History of the United States Vol. 2. The Long Nineteenth Century New York Cambridge University Press 2000 p Maury Klein The Genesis of Industrial America New York Cambridge University Press 2007 p F. H

19 Thomas Jefferson % - 30% 10% - 15% % - 7% Jason Davidson and Mira Sucharov Peaceful Power Transitions The Historical Cases in Charles Kupchan ed. Power in Transition The Peaceful Change of International Order p Robert Lipsey Foreign Trade in Lance Davis ed. American Economic Growth An Economist's History of the United States New York Harper and Row 1972 p F. H H. C. Allen Great Britain and the United States A History of Anglo - American Relations New York St. Martin's Press 1955 pp

20 Giovanni Arighi Giovanni Arighi Reading Hobbes in Beijing Great Power Politics and the Challenge of the Peaceful Ascent in Mark Blyth ed. Routledge Handbook of International Political Economy New York Routledge 2009 pp Giovanni Arighi Reading Hobbes in Beijing Great Power Politics and the Challenge of the Peaceful Ascent in Mark Blyth ed. Routledge Handbook of International Political Economy p

21 % 4 7% - 11% Gregory Corning U. S. - Japan Security Cooperation in the 1990s The Promise of High - Tech Defense Asian Survey Vol. 29 No p Akira Iriye Japan s Defense Strategy Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science Vol. 513 No pp Masashi Nishihara Expanding Japan s Credible Defense Role International Security Vol. 8 No pp

22 % % % 143% 2 100% 90% 87% 83% 3 counterfactual reasoning 1 Michael Green Arming Japan Defense Production Alliance Politics and the Postwar Search for Autonomy New York Columbia University Press 1995 p Andrew Hanami The Emerging Military - Industrial Relationship in Japan and the U. S. Connection Asian Survey Vol. 33 No pp Reinhard Drifte Arms Production in Japan The Military Applications of Civilian Technology Boulder Westview Press 1986 pp Andrew Hanami The Emerging Military - Industrial Relationship in Japan and the U. S. Connection pp

25 No World Economics and Politics Oil Price Shock and Regime Factors on Resource Nationalization An Empirical Study Based on Statistics from 1960 to 2010 Xue Qing Wang Zhen 93 Abstract A new round of nationalism movement has taken place like dominoes in Latin America since 2006 leading to intense geopolitical competition over access to regional resources. This paper builds up a panel logistic regression model of 41 major oil producing countries and analyzes the factors affecting the probability of nationalization in the oil and gas industry from 1996 to The result shows that higher probability of nationalization appears under conditions of higher positive oil price deviation and in countries less democratic. To be more specific it is the oil price shock rather than the oil price itself has a positive correlation with nationalization the regime changes sometimes increase the probability of resource nationalization. Unlike previous studies other resource indicators like domestic resource amount and oil rents in GDP have no significant influence on the probability of nationalization. Therefore Chinese companies should be on alert of renationalization during the oil price shock period carefully invest in less democratic regions and countries and establish an early warning and response mechanism. Key Words resource nationalization oil Price shock democracy Authors Xue Qing Ph. D. Candidate in the School of Business and Management at China University of Petroleum Beijing Wang Zhen Professor and Executive Dean of Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy in China University of Petroleum Beijing. Economic Development Pattern of Great Powers and its International Political Consequence Overseas Trade Domestic Market and Power Transition Huang Qixuan 107 Abstract In the late nineteenth and early twentieth century Germany and the U. S. both achieved fast economic development however the U. S. didn t provoke antagonistic action of Great Britain while Germany s rise led a war between Germany and Britain. The author argues that compared with the U. S. German economic development pattern heavily depended on overseas market which directly posed a challenge to the hegemony of Britain. In 159

26 World Economics and Politics No contrast the U. S. economic pattern mainly relied on domestic market which had relatively less impact on Britain and facilitated a peaceful power transition between the U. S. and Britain. Based on a trans - historical and trans - regional comparison the author demonstrates that different economic development patterns have different international political consequences and peaceful development needs domestic foundation. Therefore expanding domestic market is critical for great powers to achieve peaceful economic development. Key Words economic development pattern of great powers international political consequence power transition Author Huang Qixuan Assistant Professor School of International and Public Affairs Shanghai Jiaotong University China. Economic Geography Political Bloc and the Power in Asymmetrical Economic Interdependence Song Guoyou Gao Qunbo 131 Abstract There s an interesting puzzle in the international relations that asymmetric economic interdependence doesn t bring effective power. The less dependent actor which is predominant in an interdependent dyad couldn t transform its economic influence into political influence by using economic means and thus fails to excise its power over the more dependent actor. Based on existing literature the author constructs a new explanatory model by utilizing economic geography and political bloc and argues that whether economic geography can match with the political bloc is crucial to the power from asymmetric economic interdependence. The case study of Russia taking advantage of its predominant position to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO bolsters core viewpoint presented by this article. Key Words economic geography political bloc asymmetrical interdependence power Authors Song Guoyou Associate Professor in Center for American Studies at Fudan University Gao Qunbo Master Candidate at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University. 160

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202 9 * 960-200 960-200 4 202 02249 D80 A 006-9550 202 09-0093 - 4 * 09JZD0038 93 20 70 30 formal expropriation intervention forced sale contract renegotiation 2 20 30-40 20 60-70 2006 2 Stephen J. Kobrin