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1 3 ( p rospect theory) 20 70,, ( ), (Daniel Kahneman) 2002,,,, , ( Jack levy) (Robert Jervis) ( Zeev Maoz) 1992, /4 ( 12 ), Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 104

2 ( International Journal) ( Political Psychology),,,,,,,, , : ;,,,,,,,, 1947 (John Von Neumann) 1993 (J1 G1 Stein) (L1 W1 Pauly) J1 G1 Stein and L1 W1 Pauly eds1, Choosing to Cooperation: How S tates Avoid Loss (Baltimore: MD: The Johns Hopkins Uni2 versity Press, 1993) 1994 (Barbara Farnham ) Barbara Farnham eds1, Avoiding Losses / Taking R isks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict (Ann A rbor: The University ofm ichigan Press, 1995) 1 ;, :, 2006,

3 (O skar Morgenstern),,,,, ( ),,,, : (1),,, ; (2), A B, B C, A C; (3),, (Leonard Savage),,,,,,,,,,, 1956, (Herbert Simon), :, 2006, :, 2003, Rose Mcdermott, R isk2taking in International Politics: Prospect Theory in Am erican Foreign Policy ( Ann A rbor: The University of M ichigan Press, 1998 ), pp :, 18 : (, ),, 2004,

4 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, ;,,, : (1),,,,,,, , Jack Levy, Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations, International S tudies Q uarterly, Vol1 41, No1 1, 1997, p

5 ,,,,,,, (2), ( ),,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :, :,, 2007, 32 : :, 2004, 78 Jack Levy, Loss Aversion, Fram ing, and Bargaining: The Imp lications of Prospect Theory for Inter2 national Conflict, International Political Science Review, Vol1 17, No1 2, 1996, p

6 (3), (4),, (5),,,,,,,, ( ),,, (Mark L1Haas),,,,,? ( Kurt W eyland) :, 104 :, 78 79,, Jack Levy, Political Psychology and Foreign Policy, in David O1 Sears et al1, eds1, O xford Handbook of Political Psychology (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), pp Mark L1 Haas, Prospect Theory and the Cuban M issile Crisis, International S tudies Q uarterly, Vol1 45, No1 2, 2001, p

7 :,?, :,, ;,,,,, ( ),,, W (Jeffrey W 1 Taliaferro) :?,?, : /,,,,, (Rose Mcdermott), Kurt W eyland, R isk Taking in American Econom ic Restructuring: Lessons from Prospect Theory, International S tudies Quarterly, Vol1 40, No1 2, 1996, pp Jeffrey W1 Taliaferro, B alancing R isks: Great Power Intervention in the Periphery ( Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2004) : (1) ; (2), ; (3) ; ( 4) Jeffrey W1 Taliaferro, B alancing R isk, pp Jeffrey W1 Taliaferro, B alancing R isks, pp

8 U , (J immy Carte),,,,,, :,, ;,,,,, :,?,,,, ( ) ( ),,,,,,,,,, :, ; ( Paul A1 Kowert) (Margaret G1 Hermann), Rose Mcdermott, R isk2taking in International Politics: Prospect Theory in Am erican Foreign Policy1 Barbara Rearder Farnbam, Roosevelt and the M unich Crisis (New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1997), pp

9 ,, ; ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) ( )? 9 11?,,? : : (1), ; ( 2 ) ; Paul A1 Kowert and Margaret G1 Hermann, W ho Takes R isks? Daring and Caution in Foreign Policy Making, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol1 41, No1 5, 1997, p Ibid1, pp Charles F1 Hermann, Changing Course: When Government Choose to Redirect Foreign Policy, Inter2 national S tudies Quarterly, Vol1 34, No1 1, 1990, p

10 (3),,,,,,,,,,,,, (David A1 W elch),,,,,,,,,,,,, : (1), ; (2),, ; ( 3),,, Ibid1, p1 71 Ibid1, p1 81 Jack S1 Levy, Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweep ing a Concep tual M inefield, International O r2 ganization, Vol1 48, No12, 1994, pp David A1 W elch, Painful Choice: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change ( Princeton: Princeton Universi2 ty Press, 2005), pp David A1 W elch, Painful Choice: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change, p

11 ( ),,,,,,, (A lex M intz) ( Steven B1 Redd),,,, ( George W 1 Bush),,,,,,,,,, ( ),,, Ibid1, p1 461 :, 200,, Don2 ald A1 Sylvan and James F1 Voss, eds1, Problem Presentation in Foreign Policy Decision M aking (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998) :, 87 A lexm intz, Steven B1 Redd, Fram ing Effects in International Relations, Synthese, Vol1 135, No1 2, 2003, p Jack S1 Levy, App lications of Prospect Theory to Political Science, p A lex M intz and Steven B1 Redd, Fram ing Effects in International Relations, p

12 ,,,,,, ( Kendall R1 Phillip s),, ( Karen Callaghan) ( Frauke Schnell), (W illiam A1 Gam son),,,, (W illiam A1 Boettcher) ( ),,,,, Ibid1, pp W illiam A1 Boettcher, M ilitary Intervention Decision Regarding Humanitarian Crises: Fram ing Induced R isk Behavior, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol1 48, No1 3, 2004, p Kendall R1Phillips, ed1, Fram ing PublicM em ory ( Tuscaloosa: University of A labama Press, 2004) 1 Karen Callaghan and Frauke Schnell, eds1, Fram ing Am erican Politics ( Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2005) W illiam A1 Gam son, Media D iscourse and Public Op inion on Nuclear Power: A Constructionist Ap2 p roach, Am erican Journal of Sociology, Vol1 95, No1 1, 1989, pp1 1-37, quoted from A lexm intz and Ste2 ven B1 Redd, Fram ing Effects in International Relations, p W illiam A1 Boettcher, M ilitary Intervention Decision Regarding Humanitarian Crises, p

13 ,, ;, ;,, (Nehem ia Geva), ( do nothing),, ( ),,,, ( ), 1973, 7,,,,,,,,,, A lex M intz and Steven B1 Redd, Fram ing Effects in International Relations, p Janice Gross Stein, Psychological Exp lanations of International Conflict, W alter Carlsnaes et al1, eds1, Handbook of International Relations (London: Sage Publication, 2002), p David A1 W elch, Justice and the Genesis of W ar (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993) 1 David A1 W elch, Justice and the Genesis of W ar1, p

14 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (V ictor D1 Cha),,,,, ;,,,,,,, Janice Gross Stein, Psychological Exp lanations of International Conflict, p W illiam Zartman and Guy O livier Faure, eds1, Escalation and N egotiation in International Conflicts (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005) 1 Janice Gross Stein, Psychological Exp lanations of International Conflict. p12971 V ictor D1 Cha, Hawk Engagement and Preventive Defense on the Korean Peninsula, International Security, Vol1 27, No1 1, 2002, pp Ibid1, pp

15 ,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,, (M ichael D1 Kanner),,,,, 2002,,,, Jeffrey W1 Taliaferro, B alancing R isks1 Jack Levy, Loss Aversion, Fram ing, and Bargaining, pp M ichael D1 Kanner, Fram ing and the Role of the Second Actor: An App lication of Prospect Theory to Bargaining, Political Psychology, Vol1 25, No1 2, 2004, pp :,

16 , ( ), ( Glen Snyder),,,,,,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3),,,,,, :,, 100,, 100, : 0 100,,,, 100,, 100 2,?,, 25% - 30% : : ( ), 2007, : ( ),, 2003, 371 :, , 58, Jack S1 Levy, W hen Do Deterrent Threats Work, B ritish Journal of Political Science, Vol1 18, No1 4, 1988, pp ; Robert Jervis, Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence, W orld Poli2 tics, Vol1 41, No1 2, 1989, pp Robert Jervis et al1, Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore and London: The Johns HopkinsUniversity Press, 1985), p1 viii1 119

17 (Jeffrey D1 Berejikian),,,,,,,,,,, 20 60, ( Thomas Schelling),,, ;,,,,,,, : (1),, ; (2),,,, : ( ) (, ),,,,, Jeffrey D1 Berejikian, A Cognitive Theory of Deterrence, Journal of Peace Research, Vol1 39, No1 2, 2002, p :, 50 Gary Schaub Jr1, Deterrence, Compellence, and the Prospect Theory, Political Psychology, Vol1 25, No1 3, 2004, p1 395; Thomas Schelling, A rm s and Influence ( New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966), pp

18 : ( ) (,, ),,,,,,,, (James W1 Davis, J r1),,,,,,, ( ), ( ), ( ),,, ;,,,,, Ibid1, p JamesW1 Davis Jr, Threats and Prom ises: The Pursuit of International Influence (Maryland: The Johns Hop skins University Press, 2000) 1 Jeffrey D1 Berejikian, International Relations under R isk: Fram ing Safe Choice (A lbany: State Uni2 versity of New York Press, 2004), p1 511 Jeffrey D1 Berejikian, International Relations under R isk, p

19 , (Mastanduno), ( Spar), (Maria Fanis) ,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,, : ;, : (1), ( 2) (1), Stein and Pauly eds1, Choosing to Cooperate: How S tates Avoid Loss (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University, 1993) 1 Jonathan Mercer, Prospect Theory and Political Science, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol1 8, 2005, p1 121 Maria Fanis, Collective Action Meets Prospect Theory: An App lication to Coalition Building in Chile , Political Psychology, Vol1 25, No1 3, 2004, pp : ( ),, 2001 ; Andreas Hasenclever et al1, Theories of International Regimes (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997) Jeffrey D1 Berejikian, International Relations under R isk, p

20 ; (2) ( ),,,,,, (Jonathan Mercer),,,,,,,,,,, (Randall Schweller),, Jeffrey D1 Berejikian, International Relations under R isk1, pp Robert Jervis, The Imp lications of Prospect Theory for Human Nature and Values, Political Psy2 chology, Vol1 25, No1 2, p11691 Jonathan Mercer, Prospect Theory and Political Science, p1 21 Manus I1 M idlarsky ed1, Handbook of W ar S tudies II (Ann A rbor: The University ofm ichigan Press, 2000), p Randall Schweller, D eadly Im balances: York: Columbia University Press, 1998), p1 211 Tripolarity and H itler s S trategy of W orld Conquest (New 123

21 ,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) ( ),, Randall L1 Schweller, Bandwagoning for Profit: B ringing the Revisionist State Back In, Interna2 tional Security, Vol119, No1 1, 1994, pp :, Jeffrey W1 Taliaferro, B alancing R isks, p1 51 Rose McDermott, Prospect Theory in Political Science, p

22 ,,,,,,,,,, (Dale C1 Copeland),,,,,, :,,,, ( ),,,,, Douglas Lemke, Regions of W ar and Peace (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002 ), pp Dale C1 Copeland, The O rigins ofm ajorw ar ( Ithaca and London: CornellUniversity Press, 2000) 1 :,, 2006, Jack Levy, App lications of Prospect Theory to Political Science, Synthese, Vol1 135, No1 2, 2003, pp

23 ,?, ( 1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ; (5) ;,,,?,,,, ( ),,,,,?,,, B ruce Bueno de Mesquita and Rose Mcdermott, Crossing No Man s Land: Cooperation from the Trenches, Political Psychology, Vol1 25, No1 2, 2004, pp , R ichard Ned Lebow, Reason, Emotion and Cooperation, International Politics, No1 42, 2005, pp : :, ; :,, 2007 Jonathan Mercer, Prospect Theory and Political Science, pp Jack Levy, Prospect Theory, Rational Choice and International Relations, p W illiam A1 Boettcher, The Prospect for Prospect Theory, pp

24 China s Constitutional Amendments and Their Imp lications, China Report ( Sage Publications), No11, Vol141, 2005 : jasm ineli3@ yahoo1com : guoyousong@ fudan1edu1cn 1993, : (2007 ) (2007 ) hefancass@ gmail1com 2006 : yuehuatang@ gmail1com 2005 : chestnut7766@ yahoo1com1cn , : (2001 ) (2005 ) : wangn@ shisu1edu1cn 2003, 2005 : (2006 ) : linm inwang991@1261com

:,,, 1900,,,,,,,,,,, 20,,,, 1978 :,, 2002, 10 12 ; :, 2001, 382, :,, 2008, 17 :,, 1999, 37 :, 1988 ; :,, 2005, 6 7, 11 12 :, 2002, 407 80

,,,,, ;,,, 2008 /4 ( 16 ), 79 102 Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 79 :,,, 1900,,,,,,,,,,, 20,,,, 1978 :,, 2002, 10 12 ; :, 2001, 382, :,, 2008, 17 :,, 1999, 37 :, 1988 ; :,, 2005, 6 7, 11 12