2006,, % 15%,,,,,,,, :,? 2006, 2 723,, 2007 /4 ( 12 ), Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 33

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1 2006,, % 15%,,,,,,,, :,? 2006, 2 723,, 2007 /4 ( 12 ), Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 33

2 ;, ;, 20 90, ;, ( ),,,, (David Lake), (),,,,,,,,,,, 20 60, ( ), John Ikenberry et al., Introduction: App roaches to Exp laining American Foreign Econom ic Poli2 cy, International O rganization, Vol1 42, No11, 1988, p1 3. David A. Lake, Power, Protection, and Free Trade: International Sources of U. S. Comm ercial S trategy, ( Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1988), p. 33. Kenneth N. W altz, Theory of International Politics (Reading: Addison2W esley, 1979), p

3 ,,,,,, 20,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,, :, 82, , :, 2006, 59 35

4 ,,,,,,,, ( ) (Judith Goldstein),,,, 1900,,, 1930 ( Smoot Hawley Tariffs),,,, : :, ;, :, ; : :, Judith Goldstein, Ideas, Institutions and American Trade Policy, International O rganization, Vol1 21, No1 1, 1988, pp ; Judith Goldstein, Ideas, ( Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993). Institutions and Am erican Trade Policy Peter Gourevitch, International Trade, Domestic Coalitions, and L iberty: Comparative Respon2 ses to the Crisis of , Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Vol18, No12, 1977, pp Pietro N ivola, Regulating Unfair Trade (W ashington, D1C: B rookings Institute, 1993) 1 36

5 ,?, 20,, ( ) 1994,, ( Gene M1 Grossman) ( Elhanan Helpman) ( Protection for Sale),,,,,, ; : ;,,,,, :,,,, M ichael H iscox, The Magic Bullet? The RTAA, Institutional Reform, and Trade L iberaliza2 tion, International O rganization, Vol1 53, No1 4, 1999, pp Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman, Protection for Sale, Am erican Econom ics Review, Vol1 85, No1 4, 1992, pp

6 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (A rend L ijphart),, (John Ikenberry),, RobertD. Putnam, D ip lomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two2level Games, International O rganization, Vol1 42, No1 3, 1988, pp John Ikenberry, Conclusion: An Institutional App roach to American Foreign Policy, Interna2 tional O rganization, Vol1 42, No1 1, 1988, p A rend L ijphart, Patterns of Dem ocracy: Governm ent Form s and Perform ance in Thirty2S ix Countries (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999) 1 38

7 ,,,,,,, ( ) ;,, ;,,, :,,,,,,, ( ) ( / ) (Ronald Rogowski),,,,, A rend L ijphart, Patterns of Dem ocracy: Governm ent Form s and Perform ance in Thirty2S ix Countries (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999), pp , Bo Rothstein, Political Institutions: An Overview, in Robert Goodin and Hans2D ieter Klingemann, eds1, A N ew Handbook of Political Science (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996), pp Ronald Rogowski and Mark Kayser, Majoritarian Electoral System s and Consumer Power: Price2 Level Evidence from the OECD Countries, Am erican Journal of Political Science, Vol1 46, No1 3, 2002, pp

8 ,,,,, ( ) ( / /),,,,, (Helen M ilner),, ( ) (/),,,,,,,, ( Susanne Lohmann) Marc Busch and Eric Reinhardt, Industrial Location and Protection: The Political and Econom ic Geography of U1S1 Nontariff Barriers, Am erican Journal of Political Science, Vol1 43, No1 4, 1999, pp Ronald Rogowski, Trade and the Variety of Democratic Institutions, International O rganization, Vol1 41, No1 2, 1987, pp Helen M ilner and Benjam in Judkins, Partisanship, Trade Policy, and Globalization: Is There a Left2R ight D ivide on Trade Policy? International S tudies Q uarterly, Vol1 48, No1 4, 2004, pp Sobert Shugart and Stephan Haggard, Institutions and Public Policy in Presidential System s, in Stephan Haggard and Matthew McCubbins, eds1, Presidents, bridge University Press, 2001) 1 Parliam ents and Policy (New York: Cam2 40

9 ,,,, ( ) ( / ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) (/ ), ( Edward Mansfield) (Helen M ilner), Susanne Lohmann and Sharyn Halloran, D ivided Government and U1S1 Trade Policy, Interna2 tional O rganization, Vol1 48, No1 4, 1994, pp :, , 31 41

10 ( ), (Ronald W introbe),,,, (Daniel Verdier),,,,,,, : 1.,,,,,,, 90, 20 90, Edward Mansfield efal., Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies and International Trade, A2 m erican Political Science Review, Vol1 94, No1 2, 2000, pp Ronald W introbe, The Political Econom y of D ictatorship (New York: Cambridge, 1998) 1 Daniel Verdier, Democratic Convergence and Free Trade, International S tudies Q uarterly, Vol1 42, No1 1, 1998, p1 11 W illiam Lovet and A lfred Eckes, U1S1 Trade Policy (New York and London: M1E1 Sharpe, Inc, 1999), p1 581 Charles Rowley and R ichard W agner, Trade Protection in the United S tates (A ldershot: Edward E1 Elgar, 1995), p1 1201, Tao Xie, Congressional Roll Call Voting on China Trade Policy, Am erican Politics Research, Vol1 34, No1 6, 2006, pp

11 90, 10,,, : 2., (1), ; ; (2), (3), ( ),,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,, 3.,, 20 70, : :, , A lan Deardorff and Stern Robert, eds1, Constituent Interests and U1S1 Trade Policies (Ann A rbor: The University ofm ichigan Press, 1998), p

12 ,,,,,,,,,, 4.,,,,,,, (USTR ), USTR, ( ), USTR,, 90,,,, Ronald L1 Rogowshi, Comm erce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Dom estic Political A lignm ents ( Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989) ; Stephen P1 Magee, W illiam A1 B rock, and Leslie Young, B lack Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory ( Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989) 1 John Huber and Nolan McCarty, Bureaucratic Capacity, Delegation, and Political Reform, Am erican Political Science Review, Vol1 98, No1 3, 2004, p : :, , 14 :, ,

13 ,,, USTR,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1934,,,, ;,,, Barry R1 W eingast, Political Institutions: Rational Choice Perspectives, in Goodin and Klingemann eds1, A N ew Handbook of Political Science, pp

14 , 1934,,,,, 20 90,,, ;,, , , ,,,, (MFN ) 20 90,, 20 80, 21,,,, :, , 46

15 ,, ( ) :,, , 1993MFN,, 1991,,, 1991,,,,,, , , , , ,,,,, : 1999, 47

16 ,, 1 MFN / H1R 2212 MFN / % % H1R 2212 MFN % % / H. R 2212; % % ; / 3 18 H. R % % / 10 1 H. R % % / 9 19 :, MFN, : Congressional Record 1,,, MFN 23%, 49%,,, 4, 6, 2, (Congressional Record) 48

17 ,,, 435,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1992,,,,,, ;,,, , (J im McDermott),, (Jesse Helm s),,, H. R4444( ),, Lohmann and Halloran, D ivided Government and U1S1 Trade Policy, pp , I1M1 Destler, Am erican Trade Policy (W ashington, D1C: Institute for International Econom ics, 1995), p

18 , 61,,, 9,, 8 ( ) : ( Permanent Normal Trade Relations, PNTR),, http: / /covenantnews1com /chinahv htm 50

19 2 MFN( ) H. J. Res MFN % % H. R % % H. R % % H. R % % H. R % % H. J. Res MFN % % H. R % % MFN H. R % % MFN H. J Res MFN % % H. J. Res MFN % % H. J. Res MFN % % H. J. Res MFN % % H. J. Res % % H. R % % 3 (Nancy Pelosi), ; (Lee H. Ham ilton),,,, : Congressional Record 2, 20 90,, , , 51

20 , 73%, 34%, 33%, 50%, 20, (1995 H. J. Reṣ 96 ),,, 1994 (),,,,,,, 101 ( ) 102 ( ) 103 ( ),, 1994,, 1994,,, 1995,,, (James Mann), : , http: / /clerk1house1gov/histh igh /Congressional_ H istory/ index1htm l 52

21 ,,,, 20 90,, 2000 H. R. 4444,,,, (1) ; (2), ; ( 3) 15, 13,, 47000, 37000,, ( 1),, 860, 4, 56 ; (2) ; (3) JamesMann, About Face: A H istory of Am erica s Curious Relationship w ith China, From N ixon to C linton (New York: A lfred A Knopf, 1999), p Lori N itschke and Matthew Tully, B ig victory for China Trade Needs Senate s B lessing, Con2 gressional Quarterly W eekly Report, May 27, 2000, p David Jackson and Steven Engel, Don t B ite the PAC that Feeds you: Business Punishment over the China Vote, Am erican Politics Research, Vol1 31, No1 2, 2003, pp , http: / /www1opensecrets1org/news/china_ houseb1htm Holly Bailey, A Passage to China Update: House App roves PNTR, Center for Responsive Poli2 tics, May 24, 2000, http: / /www1opensecrets1org/ news/ china_ house1htm. 8 53

22 60,, 56, 2, 54 ( ) :, 1947 (),,,,,, (),,,,,,, http: / /www1opensecrets1org/news/ china_ housec1htm, David J1 Rothkopf, Running The W orld: The Inside S tory of the N ational Security Council and the A rchitects of Am erican Power (New York: Public Affairs, 2005) Selig Harrison and Clyde Prestowitz, Pacific Agenda: Defense of Econom ics, Foreign Policy, No1 79, 1990, pp V incent A1 Auger, The National Security System After the Cold W ar, in Randall B1 R ip ley and JamesM1 L indsay, eds1, U1S Foreign Policy after the Cold W ar ( Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1997), p1 561 : ( ),, 2004, 88 54

23 ; ; ; ; ; :, 12835, : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4), B ruce Stokes, O rganizing to Trade, For2 eign Affairs, No1 89, 1992 /1993, pp ; Kenneth Juster and Simon Larazus, M aking Econom ic Policy: An Assessm ent of the N ational Econom ic Council (W ashington, D1C: B rookings Institution, 1997 ) ; Jeffrey Frankel and Peter O rszag, eds, Am erican Econom ic Policy in the 1990 s ( Cambridge, Mass1: M IT Press, 2002) 55

24 ,,, 1995,,, USTR,, :, (An2 thony Lake),, 1993, (W inston Lord),, 1995,, Executive O rder 12835, January 25, Peter Yu, M em orandum for N EC Policy S taff, January 12, Nancy Tucker, A PrecariousBalance: Clinton and China, Current H istory, Vol1 97, No1 620, 1998, pp :, , 70 Patrick Tyler, S ix Presidents and China: A GreatW all: An Investigative History ( New York: Pub2 lic Affairs, 2000), pp1 397,

25 ,,,,, (Robert Rubin) (Ron B rown) (L loyd Bentson) 1993 APEC,, 1994,,,,,,,,,,,, 1994,,, Joseph S1 Nye, Strategy for East A sia and the U1S12Japan Security A lliance, D efense Issue, Vol1 10, No1 35, 1995, pp Mann, About Face, pp New Preference for A sia Meshes with Clinton s Style, Los Angeles Tim es, Nov1 22, 1992, p1 11 Ibid1 Jean A1 Garrison, M aking China Policy: From N ixon to G1W 1 B ush ( Lanham, Maryland: Row2 man & L ittlefield Publishers, 2005), p

26 ,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 58

27 ,, 2006,,,,, 2005 ( Tim Ryan) H. R. 1498,,,,,,,,, , 4USTR, W TO, W TO 6,,,, H1 R , 93, 85, ( SandersBernard) 1, 2715% 13, 8, 5 59

28 ,,,,,,,, ( ), 60

29 China s Constitutional Amendments and Their Imp lications, China Report ( Sage Publications), No11, Vol141, 2005 : jasm ineli3@ yahoo1com : guoyousong@ fudan1edu1cn 1993, : (2007 ) (2007 ) hefancass@ gmail1com 2006 : yuehuatang@ gmail1com 2005 : chestnut7766@ yahoo1com1cn , : (2001 ) (2005 ) : wangn@ shisu1edu1cn 2003, 2005 : (2006 ) : linm inwang991@1261com

20 70,,,, /,,,,,, 2008 /2 ( 14 ), Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 55

20 70,,,, /,,,,,, 2008 /2 ( 14),5580 Q uarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 55 , 1930 ( Smoot2 Hawley Tariff Act),,,? 5, ( E. E. Schattschneider), 1930 1930,,,, 20 70,,,:,??,, /?,? E. E. Schattschneider,