中國的科學與中國的公民：大陸研究在台灣的困境\\

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1 * 1997 emergent markets 1 * 1 The Economist

2 280 2 IMF APEC ASEAN Malaya C. Ronas, The Financial Crisis in East Asia: Implications for the Regional and International Agenda, paper delivered at The Second ASEAN-ISIS/IIR Dialogue Conference, Taipei, September 30-October 3, 1998, Taipei

3 stabilization marketization liberalization privatization Stanley Fischer and Alan Gelb, Issues in the Reform of Socialist Economies, in Vittorio Corbo, Fabrizio Coricelli and Jan Bossak, eds., Reforming Central and Eastern European Economies: Initial Results and Challenges (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1991) NSC H

4 Ben Slay, Rapid versus Gradual Economic Transition, RFE/RL Research Report, vol. 3, no. 31 (1994), pp

5 George Soros 9 φ * Yu-Shan Wu, Comparative Economic Transformations: Mainland China, Hungary, the Soviet Union, and Taiwan (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1994), ch Tun-jen Cheng and Stephen Haggard, Newly Industrializing Asia in Transition (Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, UC Berkeley, 1987). George Soros The crisis of global capitalism ix-x

6 Dwight Perkins Chun-tien Hu, Economic Cooperation Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region, paper delivered at The Second ASEAN-ISIS/IIR Dialogue Conference, Taipei, September 30-October 3, 1998, Taipei 11 John Makin American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Is Deflation the Real Threat? Conference Summary, May Dwight Perkins, China: Asia s Next Economic Giant? (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1986)

7 Kondratieff cycle Kuznets cycle Juglar cycle Kichin cycle 14 Wesley C. Mitchell John Maurice Clark Joseph A. Schumpeter John M. Keynes Milton Friedman Paul A. Samuelson 14

8 Bretton Woods system 15 NSC H

9 Global Capitalism Da-Nien Liu, A Year after the East Asian Financial Crisis an Economic Assessment and Implications, paper delivered at The Second ASEAN-ISIS/IIR Dialogue Conference, Taipei, September 30-October 3, 1998, Taipei Da-Nien Liu, A Year after the East Asian Financial Crisis an Economic Assessment and Implications. 19

10 288 market fundamentalism 20 liberal paradigm IMF Mahathir Bin Mohamed statist paradigm 20 Chun-tien Hu, Economic Cooperation Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region

11 capitalist developmental state 22 radical paradigm Ringgit $US Paul Krugman Paul Krugman, Saving Asia: It s Time to Get Radical, Fortune, 7 September 1998, pp Paul Krugman, A Letter to Malaysia s Prime Minister, Fortune, 28 September 1998, pp Chalmers Johnson, MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy, (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1982), ch. 9; Chalmers Johnson, Political Institutions and Economic Performance: The Government-Business Relationship in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, in Robert A. Scalapino, Seizaburo Sato, and Jusuf Wanandi, eds., Asian Economic Development--Present and Future (Berkeley: Institute of East Asian Studies, 1985), pp ; Robert Wade, Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1990) 23 Edwin A. Winckler and Susan Greenhalgh, eds., Contending Approaches to the Political Economy of Taiwan (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1988), pp. 5-12

12 290 Max Weber Reinhard Bendix, Max Weber: An Intellectual Portrait (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1977) Peter L. Berger and Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, In Search of an East Asian Development Model (new Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction, 1988) 30 Gilbert Rozman, The East Asian Region in Comparative Perspective, in Gilbert Rozman, ed., The East Asian Region: Confucian Heritage and Its Modern Adaptation (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1991)

13 Asian Values Richard Robison, The Politics of Asian Values, The Pacific Review, vol. 9, no. 3 (September 1996), pp Contest for Asia Conference Wu, Yu-Shan, Away from Socialism: The Asian Way, paper presented at the Hong Kong University, Hong Kong, December 4-5,

14 292

15 shock therapy Leonid Brezhnev 34 Mikhail Gorbachev uskorenie 34 Edward A. Hewett, Reforming the Soviet Economy: Equality Versus Efficiency (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1988)

16 New Economic Mechanism Boris Yeltsin Yegor Gaidar Leszek Balcerowicz Anders Aslund, Gorbachev s Struggle for Economic Reform: The Soviet Reform Process, (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990) 36 Janos Kornai Janos Kornai, The Hungarian Reform Process: Visions, Hopes, and Reality, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 24, no. 4 (1986), pp EIU Country Report: Russia, no. 4, 1991, p

17 GDP GDP 0% 100% 100% 0%

18 296 Viktor Gerashchenko Georgii Matiukhin 41 Boris Fedorov State Duma Viktor Chernomyrdin Ben Slay, Rapid versus Gradual Economic Transition 42 43

19 Michael Macfaul, State Power, Institutional Change, and the Politics of Privatization in Russia, World Politics, vol. 47, no. 2 (January 1995), pp

20 298 Anatolii Chubais Lynn D. Nelson and Irina Y. Kuzes, Property to the People: The Struggle for Radical Economic Reform in Russia (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1994), p Nizhnii Novgorod 49

21 * 50 Yu-Shan Wu, Comparative Economic Transformations: Mainland China, Hungary, the Soviet Union, and Taiwan (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1994), ch. 5

22 300 * Silvana Malle, Privatization in Russia: Options and Transaction Cost, in Robert W. Cambell, ed., The Postcommunist Economic Transformation (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1994), p. 164

23 Vaclav Klaus 53 Silvana Malle, Privatization in Russia: Options and Transaction Cost, p Anders Aslund, Russia s Success Story, Foreign Affairs, vol. 73, no. 5 (September/October 1994), p. 67

24 GDP Robert W. Campbell, Evaluating Russian Economic Reform: A Review Essay, Post-Soviet Affairs (Soviet Economy), vol. 12, no. 2 (April-June 1996), p Maksim Boycko, Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny, Privatizing Russia (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995) 60 Boris Fedorov 61

25 Aleksandr Lebed 62 Yukos Josef C. Brada, Privatization Is Transition Or Is It? Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 10, no. 2 (Spring 1996), p Robert Orttung, Lebed, Kulikov Battle Highlights Russia s Political Instability, OMRI Analytical Brief, vol. 1, no. 393 (17 October 1996).

26 304 otraslevoi monopolizm P. Hanson and E. Teague, The Political Economy of Unemployment Benefits and Indexation in the Russian Federation, in R.F. Kaufman and J.P. Hardt, eds., The Former Soviet Union in Transition (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993), p. 306

27 Unexim MFK Sidanko SBS-Agro Sibneft Minatep Yukos Gazprom Gazprom Bank Imperial Gazprom Bank National Reserve Bank Inkombank Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Boris Berezovskii Tycoon Berezovsky Endorses Kiriyenko, Russia Today (on internet), 26 March 1998 Andrei Bagrov,

28 GDP Sergei Kiriyenko 68 Yeltsin Threatens to Kick Berezovsky Out of Russia, RIA-Novosti Daily Review (on internet), 16 April Clifford G. Gaddy and Barry W. Ickes, Russia s Virtual Economy, Foreign Affairs, vol. 77, no. 5 (September/October 1998), p IMF IMF Michel

29 GKOs OFZs Camdessus, Russia and IMF-Meeting the Challenges of an Emerging Market and Transition Economy, IMF 69 The Central Bank of Russian Federation, Monetary Policy: Exchange Rate Policy, ( 70 Russian Debt-Default Setting, The Economist, 7 November 1998, p

30 308 RTS RTS RTS CBR 6.2 RUR/$ 72 CBR CBR Financial Times 73 CBR Stanley Fischer, Ratna Sahay, and Carlos A. Vegh, Stabilization and Growth in

31 CBR RUR/$ RUR/$ GKO OFZ Transition Economies: The Early Experience, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 10, no. 2 (Spring 1996), pp RFE/RL NEWSLINE, vol. 2, no. 157, Part I, 17 August 1998; Robert Lyle, Russia: Camdessus To Brief Board On Talks With Chernomyrdin, RFE/RL, 28 August

32 RUR/$ 20.8 RUR/$ Yevgenii Primakov 81 Albert Gore 78 Nizhnii Novgorod Garantiya bank NORSI Boris Nemtsov 79 Yuri Zhigalkin and Matthew Frost, Russia: Currency Crisis Endangers Reform Process, RFE/RL, 28 August Communists Say They Will Block Confirmation of Russian Premier, CNNfn (on internet), 31 August

33 RUR/$ Yurii Maslyukov Gosplan 83 Boris Nemtsov 84 GDP 5,560 Andrei Kozyrev 82 In Compromise, Yeltsin Nominates Primakov, CNN Interactive (on internet), 10 September 1998; Primakov Confirmed as Russian Prime Minister: Economy Awaits Action, CNN Interactive (on internet), 11 September S. K. Dubinin 84 Financial Times, March, 1998, p. 7

34 312 RUR/$ 5,960 RUR/$ IMF V. Papava and N. Khaduri, On the Shadow Political Economy of the Post Communist Transition: An Institutional Analysis, Problems of Economic Transition, vol. 40, no. 6 (October 1997), p. 16; T. Kuznetsova, Several Aspects of Research on the Informal Economy in Russia,

35 RUR/$ meltdown hardening budget corporate governance Problems of Economic Transition, vol. 40, no. 11 (March 1998), p. 21

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38 316

88 6 317 http://www.rtsnet.ru/scripts/engl/index.full.

39 (RTS Archive, RTS1-Interfax Index History ) RTS RTS

40 318 (Central Bank of Russia, Monetary Policy: Exchange Rate Policy )

41 Economic Transformation under the Impact of Financial Crisis: The Case of Russia Yu-Shan Wu Abstract Regional economic crisis struck Latin America and the former Soviet bloc in the past. Now it engulfed East Asia. Faced with this kind of crisis, most nascent democracies had to navigate between neo-classical rescue packages imposed by the international financial organizations and the domestic political reaction to involuntary economic reform. This article first delineates the various theoretical approaches to the surge of the current financial crisis originating in East Asia, and then explores the causes of the Russian economic meltdown. It analyzes the painful process in which the Yeltsin government navigated between the IMF and the State Duma. Cross pressure caused policy fluctuations and compromises that resulted in inefficient enterprises and serious tax shortage. The government thus faced a financial crisis and had to rely heavily on international investors. The untimely strike of the Asian financial crisis on Russia touched off a chain reaction and caused collapse of the bond market. The government was forced to impose strict controls on the currency market and the Russian economy was plunged into a crisis.

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中國的經濟改革模式與金融體制

中國的經濟改革模式與金融體制 1978 Naughton (1995) (Growing out of the plan) (Standard and Poor) 45 8500 (Holland and Lague, 2004) (quasi-market) (Oi, 1992; 1995; Walder, 1995) 1 WTO Naughton, 1995; Shirk, 1994; White, 1993; Goldstein,1995;,