國立中山大學學位論文典藏.PDF

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1 (PLA Political Influence PLA Participation in China Foreign Policy)

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3 Abstract In Mao s era, Mao Zedong had a dominant leadership role, and PLA political role was affected by Mao s authority. PLA had to subordinate to Mao s order. PLA only played a role as a tool. After the 1978 reform, Deng Xiaoping promoted military modernization in the 1980s to reduce the political influence of the military. After Deng s death, Jiang Zemin lacked the personal authority and military background. As a result, Jiang had to grant concessions to PLA in order to ensure its support. One concession had obviously been the unprecedented participation of military chiefs in foreign affairs decisions that were of concern to PLA, including issues related to Taiwan and relations with the United States. Besides, in Jiang s era, the opportunities and channels which PLA participated in foreign policies increased. PLA influence in foreign policy was stronger than Mao s era and Deng s era. The research motivation of this essay is to expect that can understand the change of PLA political influence. The research aims of the essay include the following: 1. exploring the factors that affect PLA political influence; 2.probing into PLA participation in foreign policy, and realizing PLA political influence; 3.analying military diplomacy, and understanding the cooperation between PLA and Ministry of Foreign Affairs; 4.probing into the conflict between PLA and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and understanding PLA strong attitude; 5.analying the decision model, Party-Military relations, political situation, the issues related to the national security, and deducing PLA political influence in the future.

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9 () * 1 ( 1995 ) 31 2 John K. Fairbank and Edwin O. Reishauer, China: tradition and transformation (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1989),

10 ( ) ()( 1991 ) ( 1993 ) Amos Perlmutter, The Mmilitary and Politics in Modern Time(New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977), chapter 1. 2

11 9 10 (Ellis Joffe) ( 1993 ) BBC Ellis Joffe

12 Arthur Ding, The PLA and New Generation of Chinese Leadership, CAPS-RAND International Conference on the PLA Affairs, U.S.A., August 15-16, 2003, p J.C. Mulvenon & R.H. Yang, The People s Liberation Army in the Information Age(Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation, 1999), ( )

13 (Harold Nicolson) ( 1990 ) Michael D. Swaine, China: Domestic Change and Foreign Policy(Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 1995), Robert L. Pfalezgraff, Jr. and James E. DoughertyContending Theories of International Relations(New York: J.B. Lippincott Company, 1971), Graham Allison & Phlilip Zelikow, Essence of Decision(New York: Addison-Wesley Longman, 1999), Harold Nicolson, Diplomacy, 3rd (London: Oxford University Press, 1969), 15. 5

14 (Elmer Plischke) Elmer Plischke, Modern Diplomacy: The Art and the Artisans(Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1979), Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking (Santa Monica: RAND, 1999), (Strong) (Soft)

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16 8 ( ) () (1949 ) () () ( ) 73

17 31 (research approach) (research method) ( ) ( 1984 ) ( 1994 ) 133 9

18 () 1998 ( ) ( 2000 )

19 () (Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005) International Institute for Strategic Studies2005~2006 (The Military Balance ) 2 (Hudson Institute)? (China s New Great Leap Forward High Technology and Military Power in the Next Half-Century) 1,800 2, (Hudson Institute) (The Heritage Foundation) (Brookings Institution) (RAND Corporation) International Assessment and Strategy Center Jamestown Foundation International Institute for Strategic Studies ( Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)

20 Thucydides Peloponnesian War (Graham T. Allison) (Glenn H. Snyder) (Paul Diesing) Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff. Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, 3rd,ed. (New York: Harper & Row, 1990), James E. Dougherty and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr., Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, William E. Miller, and Daniel Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960). 40 Paul Wasserman and Fred S. Silander, Decision-Making: An Annotated Bibliography (Ithaca, NY: Graduate School of Business and Public Administration, Cornell University, 1958). 12

21 41 (Kenneth N. Waltz) (A. Boak Barnett)1985 (The Making of Foreign Policy in China: Structure and Process) 41 Ole R. Holsti, Model of International and Foreign Policy, Diplomatic History, Vol.13, No.1(Winter 1989): Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State, and War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959). 43 Kenneth Liberthal, Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy, in Harry Harding, ed., China s Foreign Relations in the 1080s(New Haven: Yale University Press, 1984), Michael Brecher, et al., A Framework For Research on Foreign Policy Behavior, Journal of Conflict Resoutlion, Vol.13, No.1 (March 1969): Nina P. Halpern, Studies of Chinese Policies, in David Shambaugh, ed., The American of Study of Contemporary China(Armonk, N. Y.: M. E. Sharpe, 1993),

22 Kenneth Lieberthal Michael Oksenberg Rationality Model Factional/Power Model Fragmented Bureaucratic Structure (Carol Lee Hamrin) (Sui Sheng Zhao 48? (Michael D. Swaine) David Lampton? (Lu Ning) ( ) (Robert Suettinger) A. Doak Barnett, The Making of Foreign Policy in China: Structure and Process(Boulder:Westview Press, 1985), Kenneth Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structure, and Processes (Princetion, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1988). 48 Carlo Lee Hamrin and Sui Sheng Zhao, Decision Making in Deng s China: Perspectives from Insiders (N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 1995), ( ) Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking(Santa Monica, Calif: Rand, 1999 ); David M. Lampton ed., The Making of Chinese and Security Policyin the Era of ReformStanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2001; Lu Ning, The Central Leadership, Supraministry Coordinating Bodies, State Council Ministries, and Party Departments, Edited by David M. Lampton, The Making of Chinese 14

23 (Macro Analysis) (Ole R. Holsti) -- (Perception) 1971 (Essence of Decision) (Rational Model) (Organizational Process Model) (Bureaucratic Politics Model) Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform(Standford: Standford University Press, 2001), 40-55; Robert L. Suettinger, Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations, (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2003). 50 A. Doak Barnett, The Making of Foreign Policy in China: Structure and Process(Boulder:Westview Press, 1985); Kenneth Liberthal, and Michel Oksenberg, Policy Making in China : leaders, structures, and processes( Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988); David Shambaugh, China s National Security Research Bureaucracy, China Quarterly, No. 110( June 1987); Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking(Santa Monica, Calif: Rand, 1996 ). Lu Ning, The Central Leadership, Supraministry Coordinating Bodies, State Council Ministries, and Party Departments, Edited by David M. Lampton, The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform(Standford: Standford University Press, 2001), Graham Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis(Boston: Little, Brown & Company, 1971),

24 Philip Zelikow (Rational Actor Model) Organizational Behavior Model) (Governmental Politics Model) (Individual Decision) (Group Dynamics) (Bureaucratic Politics) 53 () 54 (1) (2) (3) (4) Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2. nd. ed. (New York: Longman, 1999), Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis(Boston: Little, Brown & Company, 1971), ; Glenn. H. Snyder and Paul Diesing, Conflict Among Nations : Bargaining, Decision Making and System Structure in International Crises(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977), cha.1.; Ole R. Holsti, Model of International and Foreign Policy, Diplomatic History, Vol.13, No.1(Winter 1989): 31; Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2. nd. ed, Ibid.,

25 () 56 () 57 () 58 (Samuel Kim) (Lucian. Pye) Ibid., Ibid., Jaw-Lin Chang, A Retrospective Evaluation of Decision-Making Models in US Foreign Policy (Ann Arbor, Michigan: University Microfilms International, 1985), Samuel S. Kim, The Maoist Image of World Order, World Order Studies Program Paper, Princeton University, 1977; Lucian W. Pye, Mao's Tse-tung's Leadership Style, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.91, No.2(Summer 1976), ; Lu Ning, The Dynamics of Foreign Policy Decision-making in China(Boulder: Westview Press, 1997),

26 () (Herbert Simon) ( ) (Maximizing) (Optimizing) (Bounded Rationality) 60 (Bounded Rationality) (colleagues) Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behavior-Astudy of Decision-making Processes in Administrative. Organization (New York: Free Press, 1976), 45& ( 1996) Sun Zhe, China s Foreign Policy: System Transformation, Policy Formulation Process, and Characteristics of Decision-making, CSIS, Volume 1(January 30, 2004): James C. Mulvenon and Richard H. Yang, eds., The People's Liberation Army in the Information 18

27 ( ) () (The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking) 65 Age(Santa Monica,CA: RAND, 1998), Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking, Ibid.,

28 (How much does the PLA make foreign policy) ( 2003 ) Ellis Joffe, How Much does the PLA Make Foreign Policy, in David S.Goodman and Gerald Segal, ed., China Rising: Nationalism and Interdependence (London: Routledge, 1997),

29 (William Tow) (Bruce Cumings) 69 (David Bachman) (Kenneth Lieberthal) (Allen S. Whiting) () 69 Lamption 1978 William T. Tow, "China and the International Strategic System," Thomas W. Robinson and David Shambaugh eds., Chinese Foreign Policy-Theory and. Practice(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997), ; David M. Lamption, China s Foreign and National Security Policy-Making Process: Is It Changing, and Does It Matter?, David M. Lampton, The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, (Califoria: Stanford University Press, 2001), David Bachman, Bureaucracy, Economy, and Leadership in China: The Institutional Origins of the Great Leap Forward (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991), ; Kenneth Lieberthal, Governing China: From Revolution through Reform (New York and London: WW Norton & Company, 1995), 1-35; Elizabeth Economy and Michel Oksenberg (eds.), China Joins the World (New. York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1999), 1-41; Allen S. Whiting, Foreign Policy of China?, Edited by Roy C. Macridis, Foreign Policy In World Politics(N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1992), Allen S. Whiting, Foreign Policy of China?, Edited by Roy C. Macridis, Foreign Policy In World Politics(N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1992),

30 1. (Core) (Practical) Primary Stage of Socialism (Formal) (Informal) 74 (Marxism-Leninism) (Ideas) (Values) (Assumptions) (Prejudice) (Pragmatism) ( 1999 ) 2 73 Steven I. Levine, Perception and Ideology in Chinese Foreign Policy, Edited by Thomas W. Robinson and David Shambaugh, Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1997), Ibid., ()( 1986 ) 40 22

31 ( ) ( 1993 ) ( 1993 )

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33 3. (China Under Threat) (Melvin Gurtov) (Hwang Byong-moo) Melvin Gurtov and Byong-moo Hwang, China under Threat(Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980), ( 1996 )

34 () ( ) Allen S. White, Foreign Policy of China?, Edited by Roy C. Macridis, Foreign Policy In World Politics(N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1992), Lu Ning, The Dynamics of Foreign Policy Decision-making in China(Boulder: Westview Press, 1997), ( 1996 )

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36 ( 1998 ) 28

37 29 91 ( ) ( 2003 ) 7

38 30 ( 1-1 )

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41 2 3 (Li Nan) Ellis Joffe, The Military and China s New Politics: Trends and Counter-Trends, Edited by J.C. Mulvenon & R.H. Yang, The People s Liberation Army in the Information Age(Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation, 1999), Michael D. Swaine, The Military and Political Succession in China: Leadership, Institutions, Beliefs(Santa Monica: Rand, 1992), Nan Li, From Revolutionary Internationalism to Conservative Nationalism: The Chinese Military's Discourse on National Security and Identity in the Post-Mao Era, United States Institute of Peace, May

42 7 8 7 Ellis Joffe, The Military and China s New Politics: Trends and Counter-Trends, Edited by J.C. Mulvenon & R.H. Yang, The People s Liberation Army in the Information Age(Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation, 1999),

43 % % % 52% ( )

44 (Harry Harding) (Post-Mao) (Consultative Authoritarian Regime) (Totalitarianism) ( ) ( ) Alan P. Liu, How china is Ruled(Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Incs., 1986), Harry Harding, China s Second Revolution: Reform After Mao(Washington, D. C.: The Brooking Institution, 1987 ), Kenneth G. Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structures and Process(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988),

45 % 20% 1980 ( 2-1)

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51 ) (8 )( 1964 ) ( 2 )( 1965 ) (3 )( 1933 ) (Paul H.B. Godwin) (soul)paul H.B. Godwin, Preserving the PLA s Soul: Civil-Military Relations and the New Generation of Chinese Leadership, CAPS-RAND International Conference on the PLA Affairs, U.S.A., August 15-16, 2003: ( 1993 ) ( 1997 )

52 () ( ) 31 44

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58 57 (1) (Sovremenny) (Kilo) T-80 S-300 AA ( ) 47 50

59 2-2 MAZ IRBM (1) Russian EW/SIGNIT equipment S-300 PMU-1(160+) SU-27SK(126) SU-30MKK(80) Kh-31(5) IL-76 R-73 R-27 Kilo(4) Sovremenny destroyer(2) Mi- 8/17(50+) SA-15 Lavi technology Python 3 Dauphin(50) Crotale Gazelle(8) Ecureuil(10) Blackhawk(24) SU-27SK(200) SU-30MKK(38) Searchwater(6-8) R-77 Kh-31 IL-76(30) IL-76(8) Sovremenny destroyer(2) Kilo(8) Moskit SA-N-7/12 KA-27(4-6) APR 3-E ASW torpedo Shmel FAE co-prod Phalcon (6-8) Richard D. Fisher, Jr., James R. Lilley and David Shambaugh ( China's Military Faces the Future) ( ) ( ) U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China, Jul. 19,

60 59 (2) 61 OTH UAV High Performance Computers High Powered Microwave weapons Information Warfare 60 Field Manual No.100-6(FM100-6), Information Operations 2-2, Washington D. C.: Headquarters Department of the Army, Aug ( 1998 ) ( 1998 ) Susan M. Puska (People's liberation Army After Next) ( 2001 ) Mark A. Stokes (China s Strategic Modernization Implications Unites States) ( 2000 )

61 (3) % % 55% ( ) ( 2003 )

62 () ( 1999 )

63 () ( )

64 James C. Mulvenon 79 (David Shambaugh) ( ) ( ) Stephen J. Flanagan and Michael E.Marti, The People s Liberation Army and China in Transtion(National Defense University Press: Washington, D.C., 2003 ), James C. Mulvenon, Professionalization of the Senior Chinese Officer Corps: Trends and Implications( Santa Monica: RAND, 1997); James C. Mulvenon and Richard. Yang eds., Truth From Facts: A Retrospective on Chinese Military in the Post-Mao Era (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2001), ( ) David Shambaugh, Commentary on Civil-Military Relations in China: The Search for New Paradigms, in James C. Mulvenon and Andrew N. D. Yang (eds), Seeking Truth from Facts: A Retrospective on Chinese Military Studies in the Post-Mao Era (Santa Monica: Rand, 2001), p

65 83 (James Przystup) VS Ellis Joffe, Party-Army Relations in China: Retrospect and Prospect, David Shambaugh and Richard H. Yang eds., China s Military in Transition(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1997), Michael D. Swaine, The Military and Political Succession in China: Leadership, Institutions, Beliefs(Santa Monica: Rand, 1992),

66 ( ) % Ellis Joffe, The Chinese Army after the Culture Revolution: The Effects of Intervention, The China Quarterly, No.55( July/September 1973):452; Harvey W. Nelsen, Military Bureaucracy in the Cultural Revolution, Asian Survey, Vol. XIV, No.4(April 1974): Harlan W. Jencks, From Muskets to Missiles: Politics and Professionalism in the Chinese Army, (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1982),

67 % % % % % % % % Ellis Joffe, The Chinese Army after Mao (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1987),

68 ( 2-1 ) ( 1992 ) ( ) ( ) (1995 )

69 % % % % % VS ( ) ( ) ( 2002 ) VS

70 ( ) ( ) 106 ( )

71 ( ) ( ) 63

72

73

74 1 ( 3-1 ) 1 Lu Ning, The Central Leadership, Supraministry Coordinating Bodies, State Council Ministries, and Party Departments, Edited by David M. Lampton, The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform(Standford: Standford University Press, 2001),

75 ( ) (3-2 ) 2 2 (Lu Ning) Lu Ning, The Central Leadership, Supraministry Coordinating Bodies, State Council Ministries, and Party Departments, Edited by David M. Lampton, The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform(Standford: Standford University Press, 2001),

76 3 () () 6 () Lu Ning, The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, Ibid., Ibid ( 1982 )

77 () () Mickael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymakin,

78 9 10 () () ( )( 2000 ) Lu Ning, The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, ( 1995 )

79 () ( ) [ () ( ) ( 1994 ) ( ) ( 1991 ) ( )

80 16 () Lu Ning, The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform,

81 ( 3-1) ( ) Kenneth W. Allen and Eric A. Mcvadon, China s Foreign Military Relations(Washington, D.C. : Henry L. Stimson Center, 1999), 11; Mickael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking, chapter 4. 73

82 ( 3-2) Mickael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymakin,

83

84 ( ) 33 ( 2003 ) 26 ( 2003 ) () () ( 1997 ) Nicholas Eftimiades, Chinese Intelligence Operations(Md.: Naval Institute Press, 1994), ( 1996 )

85 Mickael D. Swa ine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking, ( 2000 ) ( ) 39 77

86 Mickael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymak ing, Ibid., Ibid.,

87 29 10% 21% /17 12/ % 52% 30/97 85/170 31% 50% 6/ % 52/ % 12/ % 61/201 30% 11/ % 50/ % 2/ % 23/ % 2/20 10% 44/ % 2/22 9% 41/ % 2/24 8% 44/ % 1 2 ( ) ( ) 31 79

88 %14.38% % Carol Lee Harmin, Elite Politics and the Development of China s Foreign Relations, Thomas W. Robinson and David Shambaugh(eds), Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice( Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1995),

89 Mickael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking, ( )

90 ( )

91 ( )

92 ( 3-3 ) 3-3 ( 2000)

93 (3-4 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Kenneth Liberthal and Michel Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: leaders, structures, and processes( Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), ( 1989 ) 47 Lu Ning, The Dynamics of Foreign-Policy Decisionmaking in China(Boulder: Westview Press, 1997), ( 2001 )

94 50 51 ( ) Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking,

95 ( 2000) ( )

96 (3-5 ) 53 Mickael D. Swaine, The PLA and Chinese National Security Policy: Leadership, Srructures, Processes, The China Quarterly, No. 146(June 1996): ( Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking, Kenneth Lieberthal, Governing China: from revolution through reform(new York: W.W. Norton & Co mpany, 1995), Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking,

97 3-5 ( 2000)

98

99 3-1( ) ( 3-2) 91

100 Christopher B. Pultz, The PLA and China's Changing Security Environment, Strategic Insights, Volume II, Issue 1 (January 2003). 92

101 Kenneth W. Allen Eric A. McVadon China's Foreign Military Relations Kenneth W. Allen and Eric A. McVadon, China's Foreign Military RelationsWashington D.C.: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 1999, (1999 )

102 1978 (Calculative) ( 4-1 ) 8 Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J. Tellis, Interpreting China's Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (Rand, 2000), Balbina Y. Hwang, Resolving the North Korean Nuclear Issue, Heritage Foundation, May 8,

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104 ( 2004)

105 12 13 () () ( ) () () () () () ( )

106 () () S-300 AA-12 IL (China Threat) %2005 GDP (Ross H. Munro) Ross H. Munro, "Awakening Dragon: The Real Danger in Asia is From China," Policy Review, No.62(Fall 1992): ( ) 98

107 (90 GNP 9.8) ( 2-1) T ~2006??

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112 () (Vladimir Putin) 104

113 (Pervez Musharraf)

114 (Douglas Feith) ()

115 X

116 ( ) 2000 ( ) 2002 ( ) 2004 ( )

117 () (Boris Yeltsin) ( 4-4) S () ( ) 5 109

118 4-4 ( ) RD S-300 ( 100 ) (TU22/24) R-27ERR-27ETRVV-AE KH-29L/T KH-31 KH-59M S-300PMU Shmeli 120 Nona-SVX BMP MSTA-S Ka S-300F MK MKK

119 S () (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) YJ-12A YJ-91 YJ-62 STAR-1 AIM-9L F10 40 Lavi Lavi F (Defense News) 2003 (UAV) () David Isenberg, How Russia keeps China armed?, Asia Time, Nov 19,

120 ( ) Kh-55 Kh-55M () ( ) AS 365N 2 (European Space Agency) (Galileo) (John W. Lewis )

121 () (Rawalpindi) 48 M John W. Lewis, Hua Di and Xue Litai. "Beijing's Defense Establishment: Solving the Arms -Export Enigma," International Security, Vol.15, No.4(Spring 1991): John W. Lewis, Hua Di and Xue Litai. "Beijing's Defense Establishment: Solving the Arms -Export Enigma," International Security: Samuel S. Kim, ed., China and the World: Chinese Foreign relations in the Post Cold War Era(Boulder. San Francisco. Oxford : Westview Press,1994),

122 49 () 1980 M7M9M

123 Ounion Limmt () (State Law and Order Restoration Council) (Maung Aye) ( ) William Ashton, "Burma's armed forces: preparing for the 21 st century," James Intelligence Review, Vo.110 No.11(November 1998):

124 () Corazon S. Foley, Contending Perspectives: Southeast Asia and American Views on a Rising China, US Army War College, August 2005, Corazon S. Foley, Contending Perspectives: Southeast Asia and American Views on a Rising China, ( ) ( ) 116

125

126 (Nikita Khrushchev) 118

127 ( 1994 ) ( )

128 (Sergei Ivanov) (Russian Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies) ( ) David Isenberg, How Russia keeps China armed, Asia Times, Nov 19,

129 (Richard Nixon) (Charles Freedman) 10 (William Perry) ( ) ( )

130 ( Henry H. Shelton) (Constructive Strategic Partnership) (William Cohen) ( )

131 (George W. Bush) USS Constellation (USS America) USS Paul F. Foster Richard Lee Armitage ( )

132 (Frank Wisner) (Charles Larsen) (John Houlun)

133 Peter W. Rodman (Paul Wolfowitz) Thomas B. Fargo ( ) ( ) ( )

134 ()

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136 Enduring Freedom

137 () ( ) ( )

138 () (McMahon Line) (Confidence-Building Measures)

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141 1990 FBC1 200 T85IIM T90II () ( )

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143 1 ( ) ( ) (Constructive Strategic Partnership) ( )

144 (Strategic Partnership) (Strategic Competitor) (Candid, Constructive, and Cooperative relationship) () 2 ( ) President Bush, Chinese President Jiang Zemin Discuss Iraq, N. Korea, whitehouse, October 25, (Washington Times) 136

145 Mickael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking(Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996),

146 (Kenneth N. Waltz) (The Quadrennial Defense Review) Robert G. Kaiser, "2025 Vision: A China Bent On Asian Dominance," Washington Post, March 17, Kenneth N. Waltz, "The Emerging Structure of International Politics," International Security, Vol.18, No.2(Fall 1993): Department of Defense of the United States, Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review (Washington: Department of Defense, 1997). 12 "U.S. Seeks to Lift Sanctions on India," Washington Post, August 12, 2001, A

147 (Situations in Areas Surrounding Japan) James Kitfield, Dragon, Eagle, and Rising Sun, Air Force Magazine(June 2005): ( 2001 )

148 M60A F AGM-84A 21 AH-1W 13 OH-58D 4 S-70C MK46 II 2 E-2T 2000E AIM P3C

149 19 () (Zalmay Khalilzad) - (The United States and Asia: Towards a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture) ( ) Robert G. Kaiser, "2025 Vision: A China Bent On Asian Dominance," Washington Post, March 17,

150 (Subic Bay) (Lumut) 4 (Surabaja) Visiting Forces Agreement 24 (Manila) (Clark) (Edwin Andrews) 21 Zalmay Khalilzad, The United States and Asia: Towards a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture(California: RAND Corporation, 2001) ( ) ( ) ( )

151 F16 = U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report on The Military Power of the People's Republic of China, Report to Congress Pursuant for the FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act, PLA chief meets with U.S. deputy secretary of state, embassy of the People s Republic of China in the United States of AmericaDec 11,

152 F Theater Missile Defense EP ( ) Xiaoming Huang, Managing Fluctuations in U.S-China Relations: World Politics, National Priorities, and Policy Leadership, Asian Survey, Vol. XL, No. 2, March/April 2000, pp

153 (Dennis Blair) (Regret) 4 5 (Regret)

154 (Sorry) Sorry ( )

155 1999 (Willy Lam) (Teach Bush a Lesson) Willy Lam, Diplomatic Pain, Political Gain for Jiang, CNN, April 11, Willy Lam, Diplomatic Pain, Political Gain for Jiang. 34 Willy Lam, Diplomatic Pain, Political Gain for Jiang. 35 ( )

156 (Regret) Sorry Joseph W. Prueher) (Very Sorry) ( ) Powell: 'We regret' Chinese pilot's loss, CNN, April 4, The letter that led to release of U.S. crew, CNN, April 11,

157 EP3 Kilo (? )? EP3 EP ( )

158 ( ) (Henry Kissinger)

159 55 () () () () Very Sorry ( ) % % ( )

160

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164 , / ( ) 156

165 5-3 (Unit) : %

166 World Trade OrganizationWTO WTO WTO WTO WTO WTO (Asia Pacific Economic CooperationAPEC) 67 ( 1993 ) APEC

167 APEC () Chen Qimao, The Taiwan Strait Crisis: Its Crux and Solutions, Asian Survey, Vol.XXXVI, No. 11, (November 1996): Ken E. Gause, China s Policy Towards Taiwan, Jane s Intelligence Review, Vol.7, No.12, (December 1995):

168 M9 74 M11 ( ) M9 M Kh-59M U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China, Jul. 19, M9 CSS M11 CSS M9 M11 M U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China, Jul. 19,

169 ( 1996 ) _ ( )

170 Republic of China on Taiwan (Harsh) Ken E. Gause, China s Policy Towards Taiwan, Jane s Intelligence Review, Vol.7, No.12(December 1995): ( ) Andrew Scobell, Show of Force: The PLA and the Taiwan Strait Crisis, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 115, No. 2(Summer 2000),

171 John Deutch 92 (USS Independence ) (USS Nimitz) (David Shambaugh) (David Shambaugh) (Modernizing China's military progress, problems,and prospects)( 2004 ) _ ( 2005 ) John Garver, Face Off: China, The United States, and Taiwan s Democratization (Seattle, WA. University of Washington Press, 1997),

172 M ( 5-4 ) _ ( )

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193 (2 ) ( ( 1989 ) ()

194 ( ) ( )

195 () Jano-witz, Morris (The professional soldier: a social and political portrait) 1988 Lewis A. Coser (Masters of Sociological Thought) 1986 Lilley, James R. and David Shambaugh (China's Military Faces the Future) 2000 Pfalezgraff, Robert L. and James E. Dougherty (Contending theories of International Relations) 1993 Puska, Susan M. (People's liberation Army After Next) 2001 Shambaugh, David (Modernizing China's military progress, problems,and prospects) 2004 Stokes, Mark A. (China s Strategic Modernization Implications Unites States) 2000 Swaine, Michael D, (The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking) 1999 ()

196 2 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

197 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2 8 ( ) ( ) (1995 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) NSC H

198 ( ) 7 (20021 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2001 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 13 ( ) ( ) ( ) VS ( )

199 37 8 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2004 ) ( ) ( ) 15 ( )

200 ( ) (1999 ) ( ) ~ ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () ( ) 8-10 () 192

201 EP ( ) M ( ) % ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

202 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

203 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) () APEC

204 ( ) ( ) ( )

205 ) VS

206 ( ) ( ) ( ) () Allen, Kenneth W. and Eric A. McVadon. China s Foreign Military Relations. Washington, D.C. : Henry L. Stimson Center, Allison, Graham and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2. nd. ed. New York: Longman, Allison, Graham T.. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown & Company, Allen, Kenneth W. and Eric A. McVadon. China s Foreign Military Relations. 198