% 82. 8% You & Kobayashi % 2007 %

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1 202 2 * % Meng % 47% 200 % 2% 20% 50% Gruber & Yelowitz 999 Engen & Gruber 200 Chou et al Brown et al * wubzh@ sem. tsinghua. edu. cn 0zd&

2 % 82. 8% You & Kobayashi % 2007 %

3 % % % 48% 20% 75% Deaton 99 Carroll Dynan 993 Starr-McCluer 996 Banks et al. 200 Carroll & Samwick 998 Engen & Gruber 200 Meng 2003 Jalan & Ravallion Kantor & Fishback 996 Gruber & Yelowitz 999 Engen & Gruber 200 Wagstaff & Pradhan 2005 Chou et al % 5%

4 552 Brown et al % % % % % % % 4. 4% % 50%

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6 2 Y ijt = γ Family_insured it + τ t T t + β i D i + δ X ijt + ε ijt Y ijt j i t Family_insured it i t T t D i X ijt γ γ Wagstaff et al

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12 Probit 00 bootstrap 5 caliper % 2 3 P / - P P 5. 6% Brown P. H. A. Brauw and 2009 Banks J. R. Blundell and A. Brugiavini 200 Risk Pooling Precautionary Saving and Consumption Growth Review of Economic Studies Vol

13 202 2 Carroll C. D. 992 The Buffer-stock Theory of Saving Some Macroeconomic Evidence Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Vol Carroll C. D. and A. Samwick 998 How Important is Precautionary Saving Review of Economics and Statistics Vol Chou S. J. Liu and J. K. Hammitt 2003 National Health Insurance and Precautionary Saving Evidence from Taiwan Journal of Public Economics Vol Deaton A. 99 Saving and Liquidity Constraints Econometrica Vol Dynan K. E. 993 How Prudent are Consumers Journal of Political Economy Vol Engen E. M. and J. Gruber 200 Unemployment Insurance and Precautionary Saving Journal of Monetary Economics Vol Gruber J. and A. Yelowitz 999 Public Health Insurance and Private Savings Journal of Political Economy Vol Jalan J. and M. Ravallion 200 Behavioral Responses to Risk in Rural China Journal of Development Economics Vol Kantor S. E. and P. V. Fishback 996 Precautionary Saving Insurance and the Origins of Workers Compensation Journal of Political Economy Vol Meng X Unemployment Consumption Smoothing and Precautionary Saving in Urban China Journal of Comparative Economics Vol Starr-McCluer M. 996 Health Insurance and Precautionary Saving American Economic Review Vol Wagstaff A. M. Lindelow Gao Jun X. Ling and J. Qian 2009 Extending Health Insurance to the Rural Population An Impact Evaluation of China s New Cooperative Medical Scheme Journal of Health Economics Vol Wagstaff A. and M. Pradhan 2005 Health Insurance Impacts on Health and Nonmedical Consumption in a Developing Country World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3563 April You X. and Y. Kobayashi 2009 The New Cooperative Medical Scheme in China Health Policy Vol Health Insurance and Consumption Evidence from China s New Cooperative Medical Scheme Bai Chongen Li Hongbin and Wu Binzhen Tsinghua University Abstract We exploit a quasi-natural experiment arising from the introduction of a health insurance program in rural China to examine how the insurance coverage affects household consumption. The results show that on average the insurance coverage increases non-healthcare consumption by more than 5 percent. This insurance effect exists even for households with medical spending. In addition the insurance effect is stronger for poorer households and households with worse selfreported health status. It also gets stronger when the insurance for households expenditure at the county-level hospitals gets more generous. These results are consistent with the precautionary savings argument. We also find that the insurance effect varies by household experience with the program. Particularly the effect is significant only in villages where some households in the village have actually obtained reimbursement from the insurance program. Within these villages the program stimulates less consumption among the new participants than among households that have participated in the program for more than one year. Key Words Precautionary Savings Health Insurance New Cooperative Medical Scheme Chinese Household Consumption and Savings JEL Classification D2 D9 E2 I8 53

CHIPS Oaxaca - Blinder % Sicular et al CASS Becker & Chiswick ~ 2000 Becker & Chiswick 196

CHIPS Oaxaca - Blinder % Sicular et al CASS Becker & Chiswick ~ 2000 Becker & Chiswick 196 2015 3 179 2015 5 Comparative Economic & Social Systems No. 3 2015 May 2015 2001 ~ 2011 F812 A 1003-3947 2015 03-0020-14 Wu & Perloff 2004 Benjamin et al. 2004 Sicular et al. 2007 1998 2003 40% 1985 2.