) 1 8 3 http://www.president.gov.tw/php-bin/shownews.php4. 2. 2002 8 3 2002 7 21 91 7 22 20027 29 7 21 91 7 31 1
3 Why would Chen risk ending the recent dance of détente between Taipei and Beijing a dance he has helped choreograph? Political analysts say Chen in willing to gamble that he can score points politically at home without provoking China to launch any dangerous military action. His ruling Democratic Progressive Party, of which he recently become chairman, is facing an uphill battle in key mayoral elections in Taiwan s two largest cities in December. Another worry: Former President Lee Teng-hui s new pro independence party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, appeals increasingly to hardcore Beijing-haters in the DPP, and the politically week Chen may simply have wanted Beijing to take him seriously. Business week, August26, 2002, P.52 4 : The hard line from Mr.Chen comes at a time when ties between Beijing and the Bush administration are beginning to improve. The White House recently announced that President Bush will host Chinese President Jiang Zemin at his Texas ranch Oct. 25 for wide-ranging talks. The Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2002, P.A9. 5 : Mr. Chen said in a telephone interview this afternoon that Beijing s sharp response today reflected China s refusal to acknowledge the Taiwanese government s 2
existence an continued unwillingness to accept Taiwan as a negotiating party despite Taiwan s efforts to pursue a policy of diplomatic engagement in recent years. Their anger comes from the fact that they cannot face the reality, and they tried to boycott what we have proposed, the engagement policy, he said. The New York Times, August 5, 2002, p.5. 6 91 8 13 13 7 91 8 31 91 8 31 3 3
8 91 8 4 3 8 4 91 8 5 3 9 TAIPEI NEWS, August4,2002 President Chen was just talking about the reality. Only Taiwanese are entitled to decide on changes affecting Taiwan s Future. No external force may do so President Chen s remark is different from former President Lee Tang-hui s state to state dictum http://www.taipeitimes.com/news/front/archives/2002/08/04/158915 91 8 4 2 8 5 91 8 6 4
5 10 88 8
11 8 30 91 8 31 12 http://www.futurechina.org/link/plen DPP19991115.htm 6
13 2000 7 27 2002 8 4 8 3 90 8 5 14 14 : 90 6 19 4 7
8
15 A System Analysis of Political Life 16 2001 7 18 4219 : 90 7 19 2001 2.22% http://www.cier.edu.tw/fct/news903.htm 9
90 5 25 4% 90 7 23 137 90 7 17 2 17 10
18 19 11
20 91 8 4 3 91 8 5 2 21 91 8 5 3 12
23 284 1.02 450 911 24 22 1) 91 8 5 2 ; 2) 91 8 6 4 ; 3) TVBS 91 8 5 4 ; 4) http://archive.udn.com/2002/8/8/news/focusnews/important/939886shtml(accessedon2000/ 9/13) 23 1.5 91 8 5 11 24 91 8 6 5 25 2001 11 31-330 13
26 26 2002 8 3 91 8 4 3 91 8 4 2 8 5 91 8 6 14
CSIS Jane Skanderup 27 28 2002 8 8 29 2002 8 7 30 2002 8 5 27 91 8 4 3 : 28 91 8 5 3 29 91 8 10 4 30 91 8 9 4 15
31 2002 10 10 32 1999 1. 33 2. 8 5 34 3. 8 25 27 31 2002 8 6 91 8 10 4 91 8 11 2 32 91 9 12 12 33 8 5 91 8 6 34 91 8 8 16
35 2002 10 25 1998 36 35 Washington File http://usinfo.org/wf/020826/epf103.htm. The wording is important. By saying we do not support, it is one thing. It s different from say we opposite. If people on both sides of the Strait came to an agreeable solution, then the United States obviously wouldn t inject ourselves. 36 We do not support independence http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/release/2002/10/20021025.html.. http://www.fmpre.gov.cn/chn/36486.html.. 17
37 2002 8 6 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/guandian/26/20020806/793438.html http://202.84.17.73:7777/detail.wet?recid=29&selectid=2&channelid=4255&page=2 91 8 7 38 http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2002-08/19/content_530249-htm 39 91 8 6. 40 18
19 41 http://www.people.com.cn/gb/shizheng/18/20/20020908/817808.html 42 35
. 43 43 91 11 9 2 20
44 2002 7 21 7 30 1999 91 7 31 2 21
45 2002 9 46. 45 91 11 9 2 46 41 47 91 9 15 4 48 2002 22
1 24 4 49 1991 1 15 86 1 17 1999 86 11 17 2 1999 1 11 50 91 9 3 13 23
2. 51 51 91 11 9 2 24
25