Morning Research Department Table of Contents 目录 27 April 2016 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Bank of China (03988 HK): 1Q16 Earnings in Line 中国银行 (03988 HK): 2016 年一季度业绩符合预期 BOC Hong Kong (02388 HK): 1Q16 Results Missed Expectation 中银香港 (02388 HK): 2016 年一季度业绩低于预期 Dalian Port (02880 HK): 1Q16 Profit Increased by 4.1% YoY to RMB123 million, In-Line 大连港 (02880 HK): 2016 年第一季净利润同比增长 4.1% 至 1.23 亿元人民币, 符合预期 361 Degrees (01361 HK): 1Q16 SSSG was 7.2% and in line with expectations 361 度 (01361 HK): 2016 年 1 季度同店销售增长为 7.2% 并符合预期 Ping An (02318 HK): Better-than-expected 1Q16 Earnings, Reiterate Buy 中国平安 (02318 HK): 好于预期的 1Q16 业绩, 重申 买入 Anhui Conch Cement (00914 HK): 1Q16 Net Profit down by 32.6% 安徽海螺水泥 (00914 HK): 2016 年一季度净利润下跌 32.6% Huaneng Power (00902 HK): 1Q16 EPS decreased by 26% yoy, below expectation 华能国际 (00902 HK): 2016 年 1 季度 EPS 同比降 26%, 低于预期 Huadian Power (01071 HK): 1Q16 EPS decreased by 21.0% yoy, in-line with expectation 华电国际 (01071 HK): 2016 年 1 季度 EPS 同比倒退 21%, 符合预期 China Communication Construction Corporation (01800 HK HK): 1Q16 Net Profit Increased 17.6% YoY to RMB2.3 billion. Results were Slightly Better than Expectation 中交建 (01800 HK): 2016 年 1 季度纯利同比增 17.6% 至 23 亿元 业绩略优于预期 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 EPS Est. Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码 Title 标题 TP 目标价 Chg 变动 Rating 评级 Chg 变动 Change? 盈利预测是否改变 China Unicom 00762 HK Free Cash Flow Rebound in FY16, Buy HK$12.00 Buy -- Y See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 16
中国联通 Country Garden 碧桂园 00762 HK 02007 HK 02007 HK 自由现金流将在 2016 年反弹, 买入 Gross Margins to Remain Low and Still Under Destocking Pressure, Maintain Neutral 毛利率将保持低位且仍处在去库存压力下, 维持 中性 HK$12.00 买入 -- 是 HK$3.06 Neutral -- Y HK$3.06 中性 -- 是 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附 : 行业和公司焦点, 最新报告摘要中文版 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 29,000 16,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 Apr/15 Jul/15 Oct/15 Jan/16 Apr/16 Source: Bloomberg 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Apr/15 Jul/15 Oct/15 Jan/16 Apr/16 Source: Bloomberg Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 Country 国家 U.S. 美国 U.S. 美国 Indicator 指标名称 Durable Goods New Orders SA mom (Preliminary) 月经季调耐用品订单 ( 环比, 初值 ) S&P/Case-Shiller 20 Home Price Indices SA mom 标普 /Case-Shiller20 城市房价指数 ( 季调, 环比 ) Data Period 数据期间 March 3 月 February 2 月 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, S&P/Case-Shiller, Bloomberg. 数据来源 : 美国人口普查局 标普 / 凯斯席勒 彭博 Current Value 当期值 MoM / QoQ 环比变动 YoY 同比变动 Market Consensus 市场一致预期 0.8% 3.9ppts (4.3ppts) 1.9% 0.66% (0.13ppts) (0.55ppts) 0.80% See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 16
Industry and Company Focus Bank of China (03988 HK): 1Q16 Earnings in Line Analyst: Richard Cao What happened: The bank posted its 1Q16 financial results. Key fundamentals are as following: Currency (RMB) yoy% Currency (RMB) Revenue 123,113 mn 1.5% DPS - Shareholder s Profit 46,619 mn 1.7% EPS 0.15-2.5% Source: the Company Comments and Views: The 1Q16 financial results were in line. In 1Q16, the Company's net interest income was RMB 79,536 mn, down 1.8% YoY. NIM contracted 25 bps YoY to 1.97%. The Company s non-interest income achieved RMB 43,577 mn, up 8.1% YoY. In 1Q16, impairment losses increased 15.7% YoY. The YoY decrease of EPS was mainly due to the expansion of total shares derived from the share conversion of convertible bonds. As of the end of 1Q16, the Company s NPL ratio was 1.43%, which was flat to that of the end of 2015. Its NPL coverage ratio declined by 4.23 pts YoY to 149.07%. Looking ahead, we expect the Company will have pressure in terms of setting aside provisions. Investment suggestion: We will review our earnings forecast and TP for the Company in the forthcoming report. In the near future, we expect the Company to benefit from the launch of SZ-HK connect, spin-off listing of the subsidiary and its higher proportion of overseas business. Therefore, we currently maintain the Buy rating for the Company unchanged. BOC Hong Kong (02388 HK): 1Q16 Results Missed Expectation Analyst: Richard Cao What happened: BOC announced its 1Q16 financial results. Key fundamentals of continued business are as following: Currency (HKD) yoy% Currency (HKD) Net revenue before LICs 9,490 mn -4.1% DPS - Operating expenses 2,847 mn 6.5% Profit before LICs 6,643 mn -8.1% Source: the Company. Comments and Views: The 1Q16 results of continued business missed expectation, which was mainly due to the lower-than-expected operating income. In 1Q16, net interest income dropped due to the narrowing of NIM. The decline in NIM was mainly due to the decrease in average interest spread, caused by the drop in onshore RMB market interest rates and the decrease in higher-yielding RMB balances and placements with banks, as well as the increase in short-term debt securities investments. Net fee and commission income grew as a result of increases in commission income from loans, currency exchange and payment services. Operating expenses increased owing to higher business taxes, depreciation charges, staff costs and promotional expenses. Investment suggestion: We project the expected interest rate hike of FED to contribute to the Company's NIM positively in the rest of the year, which will improve its profitability. We expect one-off gain from the sale of NCB to increase its FY16 earnings significantly. Therefore, we currently maintain our earnings forecast unchanged. Our rating for the Company is Buy and our TP for the Company is HKD 27.87 See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 16
Dalian Port (02880 HK): 1Q16 Profit Increased by 4.1% YoY to RMB123 million, In-Line Analyst: Ivan Zhou What happened: The Company posted 1Q16 results. Key Fundamentals are as following: Currency (RMB) yoy% Currency (RMB) Revenue 2,333.0 million +13.0% DPS Nil Shareholder s Profit 123.3 million +4.1% Basic EPS 0.02558-4.4% Source: the Company. Comments and views: Revenue of Dalian Port increased by 13.0% yoy to RMB2,333 million in 1Q16. Throughput of oil terminals increased by 16.8% yoy to 15.5 million tons in 1Q16. However, ore throughput decreased by 41.8% yoy and container throughput decreased by 2.1% yoy. Besides, operating costs increased by 14.4% yoy to RMB1,978 million. Net profit increased by 4.1% yoy to RMB123 million, in-line with our expectations. Looking ahead, we expect the oil terminal throughput to steadily increase; but we concern about container and ore terminals business. Investment suggestion: The 1Q16 results were in-line our expectations. Currently, our investment rating is Reduce with TP of HK$2.50. Current valuation is not attractive. We ll maintain our investment rating and TP. 361 Degrees (01361 HK): 1Q16 SSSG was 7.2% and in line with expectations Analyst: Terry Hong What happened: The Company announced its 1Q16 operational updates. SSSG for 361 core brand was 7.2% in 1Q16, compared to 6.3% in 1Q15 and 7.9% in 4Q15. SSSG for 361 Kids brand was 7.5% in 1Q16, compared to 7.0% in 1Q15 and 8.2% in 4Q15. Channel inventory turnover months for 361 core brand and 361 Kids brand was 4.2 months and 4.1 months, respectively. During 1Q16 there were 230 new stores for 361 core brand, against 336 closures, bringing the total number of outlets to 7,102 as of 31 March 2016. The number of 361 Kids brand POS increased by 121 in 1Q16 to 2,471, among which more than 2,000 were independent stores, and the rest being integrated in the composite stores. Comments and Views: The Company s 1Q16 SSSG maintained the growth trend in the last few quarters, and was basically in line with market and our expectations. The channel inventory remained healthy, which is credited to the strong market demand in 1Q16 and the higher coverage of e-pos system in retail stores. The Company runs 361 Kids brand as an independent business unit, which grew very fast since its establishment in 2010. Investment suggestion: The Company s 1Q16 SSSG and the previously announced 4Q16 trade fair orders growth showed steady improvements in the Company s business, and we believe the Company s multi-brand strategy will benefit the Company s growth in the long run. Therefore we maintain the Company s Buy rating and a TP of HK$3.40. See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 16
Ping An (02318 HK): Better-than-expected 1Q16 Earnings, Reiterate Buy Analyst: Dayton Wang What happened: Ping An released unaudited 1Q16 financial results after the market closed on April 26. Key summary of the results is presented below: Currency (in RMB million) Qoq (in %) Yoy (in %) Net earned premiums 146,925 83.3% 28.2% Investment income 23,723 (21.7%) (30.1%) Claims and policyholders benefits (112,269) 84.6% 18.3% Shareholders' profit 20,700 249.2% 3.7% EPS (in RMB) 1.16 251.5% 6.4% Source: the Company. Comments and Views: 1/ Better-than-expected 1Q16 results drove by life insurance performance. Quarterly EPS posted a 6.4% yoy gain and a significant Qoq improvement on increased insurance premiums during the year. Investment income dropped on both a Qoq and Yoy basis on the grounds of decreased bond yields and muted A-share performance. The Company enhanced the level of disclosure, quarterly net income from life and P&C was RMB 12.4 billion (~72.6% of 16F) and RMB 3.3 billion (~29.2% of 16F). 2/ 1Q16 life NBV was RMB 13.1 billion, up 38.3% yoy. Ping An made quarterly NBV disclosure for the first time. Its strong growth in 1Q16 NBV was unaffected by the muted performance in the A-share market (~SHCOMP Index down 15% during 1Q) and we reason that it was attributed to increased proportion of high margin protection policies in the business mix. We think selling more protection oriented policies is among the ways in which Ping An could be able to offset rising insurance liabilities. 3/ 1Q16 combined ratio stood at 94.3%, which demonstrated decent underwriting profitability given auto insurance centric business mix. 1Q P&C premiums were RMB 43.6 billion, with auto insurance accounting for 85.6% (~16F: 82.0%). We expect the non-auto lines to bolster the growth in the premiums (~9% yoy in 16F) and some of the high margin non-auto lines, such as agricultural should provide some cushioning to the full-year overall combined ratio (~95.9% in 16F). Investment suggestion: We expect positive price performance on 1Q16 results today. We see a key investment thesis for Ping An is the comparatively lower funding costs that provides a certain degree of defensiveness during current low interest rate and low expected return cycle. Our latest investment rating on Ping An is Buy with a target price of HKD 48.30 per share (~30.5% absolute upside potential). Anhui Conch Cement (00914 HK): 1Q16 Net Profit down by 32.6% Analyst: Sean Xiang What happened: Anhui Conch Cement ( the Company or Conch ) announced its 1Q16 results: 1Q16 (RMB) 1Q15 (RMB) YoY% Revenue 10,607.2 Mn 11,229.3 Mn -5.5% Shareholder s Profit 1,155 Mn 1,714 Mn -32.6% Shareholder s Profit after extraordinary items 828Mn 1,510Mn -45.2% EPS 0.218 0.323-32.6% Source: the Company. Comments and Views: Conch s 1Q16 results were in-line with market consensus and our forecasts. Revenue decreased by 5.5% due to lower ASP in 1Q16. Although 1Q16 sales volume has not been See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 16
announced, we expect it to be higher YoY due to better downstream demand in 1Q16. We note that while revenue declined due to weak cement selling price, costs for operations were similar to that of 1Q15. While 1Q16 coal price was lower than it was in 1Q15, we believe the similar cost might be the result of higher selling expenses (up by 13.8% YoY) and administration expenses (up by 5.6% YoY). Besides, losses from Conch s associates and JVs also dragged down its profit in 1Q16. As a result, net profit in 1Q16 was down by 32.6%. Extracting extraordinary items such as government subsidies and gains from disposal of fixed assets, shareholder s profit recorded a drop of 45.2% YoY. Investment suggestion: We think the recovery in property sector in Conch s operating regions, which is especially the case in Eastern China, will continue to be the catalyst for a better cement demand in 2016. Accelerating commencement of infrastructure projects in Eastern China will be a strong support for rising downstream cement demand. Since Conch has very high exposures to the Eastern China cement market, it will continue to benefit from the cement price hikes in Eastern China. Our channel check shows that the current blended shipment price from Conch is already higher than that in 4Q15 and was only slightly lower than its 2015 full year ASP. Given the current low inventory level in Eastern China, a further upward price adjustment in the region will not be a surprise. We think the major risk for Conch is the uncertainty from property sector, given its recovery magnitude was much higher than the market expectation in 1Q16 and the sustainability is suspicious. Since Conch s results were in-line with our estimations, we maintain TP of HK$23.00 with Accumulate investment rating. Huaneng Power (00902 HK): 1Q16 EPS decreased by 26% yoy, below expectation Analyst: Leo Wu What happened: Huaneng Power ( the Company ) posted its 1Q16 results accordance with PRC GAAP. Key Fundamentals are as following: 1Q16 Currency (RMB) yoy Revenue (Mn) 28,822-15.9% Net profit (Mn) 3,948-21.6% EPS 0.26-25.6% Source: the Company. Comments and Views: The Company's 1Q16 net profit / EPS decreased by 21.6%/25.6% yoy to RMB3.95 bn / RMB0.26, below expectation. The decline of net profit was mainly due to: 1) the Company's domestic net generation fell by 6.8% yoy, among which the coal-fired net generation retreated by 10.1% yoy, and 2) the domestic average feed-in tariff (VAT inclusive) declined by 10.7% or RMB4.8cent/KWh, resulting in 16% yoy drop of 1Q16 revenue, but the negative impacts were partially offset by: 1) the gross margin slightly improved 0.8 ppt to 31.7% (which we believe was contributed by the approximately 24% yoy decline of average thermal coal price), and 2) net financial expenses fell 12% yoy (attributable to yoy decline of borrowing rate). Investment suggestion: Although both the coal price and interest rate were at their low levels, the Company's 1Q16 results were still hit by both the declines of utilisation hours and tariff. As the coal price and interest rate might bottom out, while there is still downside potential for utilisation hours and tariff, we believe that the profitability of the Company's coal-fired power sector will be further damaged. We will maintain the "Neutral" rating for the Company. Our current target price is HK$5.60. See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 16
Huadian Power (01071 HK): 1Q16 EPS decreased by 21.0% yoy, in-line with expectation Analyst: Leo Wu What happened: Huadian Power ( the Company ) posted its 1Q16 results (PRC GAAP): 1Q16 Currency (RMB) yoy (non-restate) yoy (restate) Revenue (Mn) 16,854 5.2% -7.3% Net profit (Mn) 1,819 1.2% -11.3% EPS 0.184-9.6% -21.0% Source: the Company. Comments and Views: Under restated basis, the Company's 1Q16 net profit / EPS decreased by 11.3%/21.0% yoy to RMB1.819 bn / RMB0.184, in-line with expectation. The yoy decline of net profit was mainly because the average feed-in tariff decreased by 12.4% or RMB5.5cent/KWh in 1Q16, which was partially offset by: 1) financial expenses decreased by 20.6% yoy, and 2) the 1Q16 net generation increased by 2.8%. The Company's gross margin remained flat yoy at 29.9%, indicating that the coal price decline partially offset the tariff decline. Investment suggestion: The Company's 1Q16 results was impacted by the significant decrease of feed-in tariff, which completely offset the positive factors including coal price decline and financial expenses decline. As the coal price and interest rate might bottom out, while there is still downside potential for utilisation hours and tariff, we believe that the profitability of the Company's coal-fired power sector will be further damaged. We will maintain the "Neutral" rating for the Company. Our current target price is HK$4.20. China Communication Construction Corporation (01800 HK HK): 1Q16 Net Profit Increased 17.6% YoY to RMB2.3 billion. Results were Slightly Better than Expectation Analyst: Gary Wong What happened: The Company posted 1Q16 results. Key Fundamentals are as following: Currency (RMB) yoy% Currency (RMB) Revenue 82.574 Billion +11.1% DPS Nil. Shareholder s Profit 2.305 Billion +17.6% EPS 0.140 +17.6% Source: the Company. Comments and Views: CCCC (01800 HK) 1Q16 revenue increased 11.1% YoY to RMB82.574 billion. Net profit increased 17.6% YoY to RMB2.305 billion. Results were slightly better than expectation, mainly due to lower than expected finance costs (down 1.2% YoY) and lower than expected effective profit tax rate. Gross margin was down 0.4 ppts YoY to 13.6%.1Q16 new contracts signed was RMB107.884 billion, up 2.2% YoY. Of which infrastructure construction new contracts were RMB90.510 billion, up 2.5% YoY. Investment suggestion: New contract growth of 1Q was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to 4 African projects contracts worth USD5.3 billion was just won yet not signed and was not included in the new contracts calculation, if they were included, contract growth should have been 34.8% YoY. We expect target of full year growth of new contracts signed of 10% for 2016 could be achieved. Current valuation was attractive. Maintain Accumulate with a TP of HKD11.00. See the last page for disclaimer Page 7 of 16
Latest Reports China Unicom (00762 HK):Free Cash Flow Rebound in FY16, Buy Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$12.00 Analyst: Ricky Lai Report Date: 2016-04-26 Summary 1Q16 net profit was 77.5% and 40.0% below market and our expectations, respectively. China Unicom recorded a significant decline in earnings in 1Q16 with an 84.8% yoy decline due to a decline in mobile revenue, higher handset subsidies and tower leasing expense addition. Revise down FY16-17 mobile revenue by 3.0%/ 3.7%/ 4.2%, respectively, due to the revision of mobile ARPU estimations with the entry of a new telecom rival (China Radio and Television Network Limited) and fiercer market competition at the cost of lower ARPU. Free cash flow will improve from RMB 1.2 billion in FY15 to RMB 6.6 billion in FY16, driven by lower CAPEX spending thanks to the formation of Tower Company and the alliance with China Telecom (00728 HK). Maintain the investment rating of Buy and cut the TP from HK$ 12.50 to HK$ 12.00. We cut FY16-18 EPS by 2.6%/ 2.9%/ 3.2%, respectively. The new TP represents 25.7x FY16 PER, 17.4x FY17 PER, 12.9x FY18 PER and 1.0x FY16 PBR. Country Garden (02007 HK): Gross Margins to Remain Low and Still Under Destocking Pressure, Maintain Neutral Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$3.06 Analyst: Van Liu Report Date: 2016-04-26 Summary Country Garden s 2015 underlying net profit missed market expectation by 10.1% on below-expectation GPM and above-expectation exchange losses. Total revenue increased 33.9% YoY to RMB113.223 bn. The GPM dropped 5.9 ppts YoY to 20.2% due to the declining ASP aimed at boosting sales. The underlying net profit dropped by 3.1% YoY. Under destocking pressures, gross margins are expected to be in the trough. At the end of 2015, stocks amounted to around RMB108.5 bn. ASP will be hard to recover under destocking pressures. With average land costs increasing, we expect gross margins to remain low. As the Company lacked effective destocking measures, the Company s land replenishment activities are likely to weaken its balance sheet. Net gearing ratios are estimated to increase to over 80.0% in 2016-2018 and destocking pressure is expected to still exist. Maintain Neutral. Gross margins are expected to remain low in 2016-2018. Moreover, high net gearing ratios and destocking pressures will exert negative effects on the Company s valuation. Therefore, we revise down target price to HK$3.06, representing a 63% discount to the revised 2016E NAV, 5.8x 2016 underlying PER and 0.8x 2016 PBR. We maintain Country Garden as Neutral. See the last page for disclaimer Page 8 of 16
Chinese Translation 中文翻译 行业和公司焦点 中国银行 (03988 HK): 2016 年一季度业绩符合预期分析员 : 曹柱 事件描述 : 公司公布 2016 年一季度业绩, 主要指标表现如下 : 货币单位 (RMB) 变动 % 货币单位 (RMB) 收入 123,113 百万 1.5% DPS 0.18 股东净利 46,619 百万 1.7% 每股净利 0.15-2.5% 资料来源 : 公司 观点评论 :2016 年一季度业绩符合预期 2016 年一季度, 公司的净利息收入达 79,536 百万元人民币, 同比下滑 1.8% 净息差同比收缩 25 个基点至 1.97% 公司非利息收入达 43,577 百万人民币, 同比增长 8.1% 2016 年一季度, 资产减值损失同比增长了 15.7% 每股净利的同比下滑主要是由于可转换债券转 股导致的总股本的扩张 截至 2016 年一季度底, 公司的不良贷款率达 1.43%, 与 2015 年底持平 公司 的不良贷款拨备覆盖率同比下滑 4.23 个百分点至 149.07% 展望未来, 我们预计公司的拨备计提压力较 大 投资建议 : 我们会在下一份报告中检讨公司的盈利预测与目标价 未来, 我们预计公司将受益于深港通的 推出 子公司的分拆上市 海外业务的高比占比 因此, 我们暂维持对公司的 买入 投资评级不变 中银香港 (02388 HK): 2016 年一季度业绩低于预期 分析员 : 曹柱 事件描述 : 公司公布 2016 年一季度财务报告, 持续经营业务的主要指标表现如下 : 货币单位 (HKD) 变动 % 货币单位 (HKD) 资产减值前净营业收入 9,490 百万元 -4.1% 每股股息 - 经营支出 2,847 百万元 6.5% 资产减值前经营利润 6,643 百万元 -8.1% 资料来源 : 公司 观点评论 :2016 年一季度公司业绩低于预期, 主要是由于低于预期的营业收入 2016 年一季度, 由于净 息差收窄, 公司净利息收入下滑 净息差的收窄, 主要因境内人民币市场利率下跌及较高收益的人民币同 业结余及存放减少, 加上短期债务证券投资有所增加, 导致平均利差下降 受贷款 买卖货币及支付业务的收入上升, 净手续费收入增加 经营支出因营业税 折旧 人事及推广费用增加而上升 投资建议 : 我们预计美联储的预期加息将会对公司未来的净息差形成正面的影响, 这将会改善公司的盈利能力 我们预计出售南商行的一次性收益将会大幅增加其 2016 年的盈利 因此, 我们暂维持盈利预测不变 我们对公司的投资评级为 买入, 我们对公司的目标价为 27.87 港元 See the last page for disclaimer Page 9 of 16
大连港 (02880 HK): 2016 年第一季净利润同比增长 4.1% 至 1.23 亿元人民币, 符合预期分析员 : 周一帆 事件描述 : 公司公布 2016 年第一季业绩, 主要指标表现如下 : 货币单位 ( 人民币 ) 变动 % 货币单位 ( 人民币 ) 收入 2,333.0 百万 +13.0% 每股股息 无 股东净利 123.3 百万 +4.1% 每股净利 0.02558-4.4% 数据源 : 公司 观点评论 :2016 年第一季, 大连港收入同比增长 13.0% 至 23.33 亿元人民币 2016 年第一季油品码头 吞吐量同比增长 16.8% 至 1,550 万吨 然而, 矿石吞吐量同比下跌 41.8%, 而集装箱码头吞吐量同比下 跌 2.1% 另外, 经营成本同比增长 14.4% 至人民币 19.78 亿元 净利润同比增长 4.1% 至 1.23 亿元人民 币, 符合我们预期 往后看, 我们预计油品码头吞吐量会稳定上升 ; 但我们担心集装箱以及铁矿石码头的 情况 投资建议 : 公司 2016 年第一季业绩符合我们预期 当前, 我们的投资评级为 减持, 目标价为 2.50 港 元 公司当前估值并不吸引 我们预计会维持我们的投资评级和目标价 361 度 (01361 HK): 2016 年 1 季度同店销售增长为 7.2% 并符合预期分析员 : 洪学宇 事件描述 : 公司公布了其 2016 年 1 季度运营数据 2016 年 1 季度 361 主品牌同店销售增长为 7.2%, 相比 2015 年 1 季度为 6.3%,2015 年 4 季度为 7.9% 2016 年 1 季度 361 童装品牌同店销售增长为 7.5%, 相比 2015 年 1 季度为 7.0%,2015 年 4 季度为 8.2% 361 主品牌和 361 童装品牌的渠道库存周转月数分别为 4.2 个月及 4.1 个月 在 2016 年 1 季度 361 主品牌新开 230 间店, 关闭 336 间店, 截至 2016 年 3 月 31 日总店数为 7,102 在 2016 年 1 季度 361 童装品牌销售网点数量增加 121 间至 2,471 间, 其中超过 2,000 间为独立店面, 其余则整合在复合店中 观点评论 : 公司 2016 年 1 季度同店销售增长延续了过去几个季度的增长趋势, 并且基本符合市场及我们的预期 渠道库存维持在健康水平, 主要归功于 2016 年 1 季度强劲的市场需求以及 e-pos 系统在零售店更高的覆盖率 公司将 361 童装品牌作为独立的业务单元来运行, 并且自从 2010 年成立以来增长非常迅速 投资建议 : 公司 2016 年 1 季度的同店销售以及此前公布的 2016 年 4 季度订货会订单增长显示了公司业务的稳健改善, 并且我们认为公司的多品牌战略长期来看将会有益于公司的增长 因此我们维持公司 买入 的评级以及 3.40 港元的目标价 See the last page for disclaimer Page 10 of 16
中国平安 (02318 HK): 好于预期的 1Q16 业绩, 重申 买入 分析员 : 王庆鲁 事件描述 : 中国平安在 4 月 26 日收市后公布了未经审计的 1Q16 业绩 业绩摘要如下 : 货币 ( 人民币百万元 ) 环比变动 同比变动 已赚保费 146,925 83.3% 28.2% 投资收益 23,723 (21.7%) (30.1%) 赔款及保户利益 (112,269) 84.6% 18.3% 归属母公司股东净利润 20,700 249.2% 3.7% 每股盈利 ( 元 ) 1.16 251.5% 6.4% 来源 : 公司 观点评论 :1/ 寿险表现带动季度业绩高于预期 季度每股盈利同比增长 6.4%, 并且由于保费收入的增长 而环比显著改善 在债券收益率的下行和季度 A 股平淡的表现下, 投资收益环比和同比均出现下降 公 司增强了信息披露, 季度寿险和财产险分部净利润分别为人民币 124 亿和 33 亿元 2/ 季度新业务价值 同比增长 38.3% 公司首次披露季度新业务价值, 并且其增幅没有受到 A 股表现影响 我们推测是因为 高利润的保障型产品在产品组合中的提升 我们认为提高这类产品的的占比是应对准备金上升风险的手段 之一 3/ 季度综合成本率为 94.3%, 体现了出在以车险为主的产品组合拥有不错的承保利润率 1 季度 财产险保费收入为人民币 436 亿元, 其中车险占比 85.6%(~ 全年预测 :82.0%) 我们预期在余下季度 中, 非车险产品将为增长提供一定支撑 (~ 全年预测同比 :9%), 并且一些高利润率的产品线, 例如农业 险将对全年综合成本率提供一定保障 (~ 全年预测 :95.9%) 投资建议 : 我们预期今日股价反应正面 我们认为主要的投资逻辑是 : 平安预期较同业可比低的融资成本 在目前低利率和低预期收益率的市场环境下提供一定的防御性 我们最新的投资评级为 买入, 目标价 为 48.30 港元 (~30.5% 绝对上升空间 ) 安徽海螺水泥 (00914 HK): 2016 年一季度净利润下跌 32.6% 分析员 : 向宇豪 事件描述 : 安徽海螺水泥 ( 公司 或者 海螺水泥 ) 公布了 2016 年第一季度业绩 : 2016 年一季度 ( 人民币 ) 2015 年一季度 ( 人民币 ) 同比变动 % 收入 10,607.2 百万元 11,229.3 百万元 -5.5% 股东净利 1,155 百万元 1,714 百万元 -32.6% 除去非经常项后股东净利 828 百万元 1,510 百万元 -45.2% 每股净利 0.218 0.323-32.6% 数据来源 : 公司 观点评论 : 海螺水泥 2016 年一季度业绩符合市场预期和我们的预测 由于 2016 年第一季度较低的单位 售价, 收入下降 5.5% 虽然 2016 年第一季度销量并未公布, 但我们预计由于 2016 年一季度较好的下 游需求, 销量于去年同期相比应该较高 我们注意到在收入由于较低水泥价格而下降的情况下, 运营开支 却和 2015 年第一季度持平 在 2016 年第一季度煤炭价格低于 2015 年第一季度的背景下, 我们认为相 同的开支主要是较高的销售成本 ( 同比上升 13.8%) 和管理成本 ( 同比上升 5.6%) 所致 此外, 来自海 螺水泥联营和合营公司的亏损也拉低了其于 2016 年第一季度的利润 综上所述,2016 年第一季度净利 See the last page for disclaimer Page 11 of 16
润下降 32.6% 除去如政府补贴和处置固定资产收益等非经常项, 股东净利录得同比下跌 45.2% 投资建议 : 我们认为于海螺水泥运营区域内的房地产回暖, 尤其是在华东地区, 将会继续作为在 2016 年较好的水泥需求的关键因素 而于华东的基建工程加速开工将会作为对下游水泥需求的强力支撑 由于海螺水泥在华东水泥市场有很深的市场布局, 其将会继续的从华东地区水泥价格上扬中受益 我们的渠道调研显示目前海螺水泥的混合出厂价格已经高于 2015 年第四季度的水平并且只略低于其于 2015 年全年的单位售价 基于目前的华东地区的低库存水平, 区域的再一次价格上调将并不意外 我们认为海螺水泥的主要风险在于来自房地产板块的不确定性, 源于其在 2016 年第一季度回暖的程度大幅超过市场预期并且其持续性值得怀疑 由于海螺水泥的业绩符合我们的预期, 我们将维持 23.00 港元的目标价以及 收集 的投资评级 华能国际 (00902 HK): 2016 年 1 季度 EPS 同比降 26%, 低于预期分析员 : 吴逸超 事件描述 : 华能国际 ( 公司 ) 公布 2016 年 1 季度基于中国会计准则的业绩, 主要指标表现如下 : 1Q16 货币单位 (RMB) 同比变动 收入 ( 百万 ) 28,822-15.9% 股东净利 ( 百万 ) 3,948-21.6% 每股净利 0.26-25.6% 资料来源 : 公司 观点评论 : 公司一季度净利润 /EPS 同比倒退 21.6%/25.6% 至人民币 39.5 亿元 / 人民币 0.26 元, 低于预期 净利润下跌主要由于 1) 公司一季度境内售电量同比倒退 6.8%, 其中煤电售电量同比倒退 10.1%, 以及 2) 一季度境内平均上网电价 ( 含税 ) 同比下跌 10.7% 或 4.8 分 / 度, 令公司一季度收入同比下跌 16%, 但这些负面因素部分被 1) 毛利率同比轻微提高 0.8 个百分点至 31.7%( 相信是受益于一季度动力煤均价 同比下跌约 24%), 以及 2) 财务费用净额同比下跌 12%( 受益于借贷利率同比降低 ) 所部分抵消 投资建议 : 尽管煤价和利率均处于历史低位, 但公司一季度业绩仍然受到了利用小时下降和电价下跌的双 重打击 随着煤价和利率可能见底回升, 而利用小时和平均电价有继续下跌的空间, 公司煤电板块盈利能 力会继续被削弱 我们将维持对公司的 中性 评级, 当前目标价为 5.60 港元 华电国际 (01071 HK): 2016 年 1 季度 EPS 同比倒退 21%, 符合预期分析员 : 吴逸超 事件描述 : 华电国际 ( 公司 ) 公布 2016 年一季度业绩 ( 国内会计准则 ): 1Q16 货币 (RMB) 同比 ( 非重述 ) 同比 ( 重述 ) 收入 ( 百万 ) 16,854 5.2% -7.3% 股东净利 ( 百万 ) 1,819 1.2% -11.3% 每股净利 0.184-9.6% -21.0% 资料来源 : 公司 观点评论 : 重述口径下, 公司一季度净利润 /EPS 同比下跌 11.3%/21.0% 至人民币 18.19 亿 / 人民币 0.184 元, 符合预期 净利润同比下跌主要由于公司一季度平均上网电价同比下跌 12.4% 或 5.5 分 / 千瓦时, 但 部份被 1) 财务费用同比下降 20.6%, 以及 2) 一季度上网电量同比增长 2.8% 所抵消 公司一季度毛利 率同比持平, 为 29.9%, 表明煤价下跌部分对冲了电价的下跌 See the last page for disclaimer Page 12 of 16
投资建议 : 公司一季度业绩受到了电价显著下降的影响, 抵消了煤价下跌以及财务费用下降的有利因素 随着煤价和利率可能见底回升, 而利用小时和平均电价有继续下跌的空间, 公司煤电板块盈利能力会继续被削弱 我们将维持对公司的 中性 评级, 当前目标价为 4.20 港元 中交建 (01800 HK): 2016 年 1 季度纯利同比增 17.6% 至 23 亿元 业绩略优于预期分析员 : 黄家玮 事件描述 : 公司公布 2016 年 1 季度业绩, 主要指标表现如下 : 货币单位 ( 人民币 ) 变动 % 货币单位 ( 人民币 ) 收入 825.74 亿 +11.1% 每股股息 无 股东净利 23.06 亿 +17.6% 每股净利 0.140 元 +17.6% 资料来源 : 公司 观点评论 : 中交建 (01800 HK)2016 年 1 季度收入同比增 11.1% 至 825.74 亿元 ( 人民币, 下同 ) 纯利同比增 17.6% 至 23.05 亿元 业绩略优于预期, 主要因为低于预期的财务费用 ( 同比跌 1.2%), 以及有效税率低于预期 毛利率同比下跌 0.4 个百分点至 13.6% 2016 年 1 季度新签合同额为 1,078.84 亿元, 同比增 2.2% 其中基建新签合同额 905.10 亿元, 同比增 2.5% 投资建议 : 公司 1 季度新签合同额增长略差于预期, 主要因为 4 个 3 月底中标价值 53 亿美元的非洲项目还没签约而没有计算在内 若将此计算在内则新签合同应同比增 34.8% 我们认为公司 2016 年新签合同额同比增 10% 的目标可以达到 公司估值吸引, 维持 收集 评级及 11.00 港元的目标价 最新报告 中国联通 (00762 HK): 自由现金流将在 2016 年反弹, 买入 评级 : 买入 6-18m 目标价 : HK$12.00 分析员 : 黎柏坚报告日期 : 2016-04-26 报告摘要 2016 年第一季净利分别低于市场和我们的预期 77.5% 和 40.0% 中国联通的 2016 年第一季纯利录得显著的同比下跌 84.8%, 因移动业务收入下跌 更高的手机补贴和铁塔租赁费用的增加 分别下调 2016-2018 年移动业务收入 3.0%/ 3.7%/ 4.2%, 因新的电信竞争对手 ( 中国广播电视网络有限公司 ) 的出现和市场竞争加剧, 而调整移动 ARPU 的预测 自由现金流将从 2015 年的 -12 亿元人民币改善至 2016 年的 66 亿元人民币, 资本开支将因铁塔公司的成立及与中国电信 (00728 HK) 的联盟而减少 维持公司的投资评级为 买入 及目标价从 12.50 港元下调至 12.00 港元 分别下调 2016-2018 年每股盈利预测 2.6%/ 2.9%/ 3.2% 新目标价相当于 25.7 倍 2016 年市盈率 17.4 倍 2017 年市盈率 12.9 倍 2018 年市盈率及 1.0 倍 2016 年市净率 See the last page for disclaimer Page 13 of 16
碧桂园 (02007 HK): 毛利率将保持低位且仍处在去库存压力下, 维持 中性 评级 : 中性 6-18m 目标价 : HK$3.06 分析员 : 刘斐凡报告日期 : 2016-04-26 报告摘要 由于低于预期的毛利率和高于预期的汇兑损失, 碧桂园 2015 年核心净利低于市场预期 10.1% 总收入同比增长 33.9%, 达人民币 1,132.23 亿元 由于降价促销, 毛利率同比下降 5.9 个百分点达到 20.2% 核心净利同比下滑 3.1% 在去库存压力下, 毛利率将处于底部 2015 年末, 库存约为人民币 1,085 亿元 销售均价在去库存压力下将难以恢复 随着土地成本上升, 我们预计毛利率保持低位 由于公司缺乏有效的去库存措施, 公司的土地储备补充很有可能使得其资产负债表变弱 净资产负债率估计在 2016-2018 年增加到 80.0% 以上且去库存压力仍将会存在 维持 中性 在 2016-2018 年毛利率预计保持低位 另外, 高净资产负债率和去库存压力将会对公司估值施加负面影响 因此, 我们下调目标价至 3.06 港元, 相当于 2016 年 NAV 有 63% 折让,5.8 倍 2016 年核心市盈率和 0.8 倍 2016 年市净率 我们维持碧桂园 中性 See the last page for disclaimer Page 14 of 16
Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 liugu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976698 / (852) 25097516 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费 ( 酒店 ) 博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 环保 基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092616 Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭 电力 wuyichao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976871 Sunny Kwok 郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household Products) 消费 ( 食品饮料 日用品 ) sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092642 Ray Zhao 赵睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合 电子商务 zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) 23976755 Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market Strategy 市场策略 guqiaoyi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976718 Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092629 Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料 燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信 互联网 ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092603 Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险 债券 dayton.wang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095347 Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源 电力设备 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097592 Ivan Zhou 周一帆 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流 港口 zhouyifan013593@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费 ( 零售 ) 家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095313 Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 liufeifan@gtjas.com (86755) 23976672 Sherry Li 李沁亦 Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空 汽车 liqinyi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械 建材 xiangyuhao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976725 Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) hongxueyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976722 Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Research Assistant 研究助理 johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095348 Toliver Ma 马守彰 Research Assistant 研究助理 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095317 Spencer Fan 范明 Research Assistant 研究助理 fanming@gtjas.com (86755) 23976686 Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Research Assistant 研究助理 wuyuyang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Research Assistant 研究助理 gary.ching@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092665 Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理 翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书 翻译员 penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092632 See the last page for disclaimer Page 15 of 16
Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H shares (00525 HK), China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914 HK) / China Power (02380 HK) / Sinotruk (03808 HK) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / China U-Ton (06168 HK) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / Shanghai Electric- H shares (02727 HK) / China Wood Optimization (08099 HK) / 361 Degrees (01361 HK) / CECEP COSTIN New Materials (02228 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) / Shenzhen Investment (00604 HK) / D&G Technology (01301 HK) / China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / Bosideng (03998 HK) / Binhai Investment (02886 HK) / Wasion Group (03393 HK) / WH Group (00288 HK) / China Creative Home (01678 HK) / China All Access (00633 HK) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2016 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk See the last page for disclaimer Page 16 of 16