Research Center For Taiwan Economic Development (RCTED)
GNP GNP GNP GNP 1960 Easterly 1997 95 3
2001 US13,000 4 1950/60 2 4 PPP GNI US18,000
Anand and Ravallion1993 1985 85 GDP Pritchett and Summers (1996) 1990 19601985 5-0.2 30-0.4 Shafik1994 149 1960-1990 1 1.62-0.48 1.17 0.04-0.93
Easterly1997 1960197019801990 Individual Rights and Democracy Political Instability and War Education Health Transport and Communication Inequality Across Class and Gender Bads 5 95 23 1960197019801990 5 Bads
1980 1999 95 World Bank Fixed Effect Model 95 1980 1999 Panel Data Fixed Effects Model Pooled OLS y i, t = α + β i, t + i + ε i, t = ( α + i ) = α i X + βx i, t v + ε i, t v + βx i, t + ε i, t 1
Biased Inconsistence 6 Instrumental Variable Lag 2 = ε ~ N (0, ) 2 y i, t α i + βx i, t 1 + ε i, t i, t σ i = 1,..., N t = 1,..., 20 v α α i X 8 ε i, t 1 2 σ y i, t it i, t 2 GNI per capita, PPP 1980 1999 20 6 cov( (2000) X t, ε t ) 0 Johnston and Dinardo(1997)Wooldridge
LY GNI, PPP PRS ILL MOR HEA CO2 WAT LAT TEL World Development Indicators, 19972001World BankTaiwan Statistical Data Book, 1996 2001 Council for Economic Planning and Development AREMOS Easterly1997
3 SAS Stepwise 95 1990 18 1990 80 1999 50 1990 12.2 1.6 150.4 6 15.79 0.02 0.32 0.11 68.1 0.07 464,574,016
8300 1980 1999 16 OLS 1 1991 7 Barro1991 7 World Bank (1991), p.6
2 3 95
4 25 4 95 8 SAS Stepwise 5
95
World Bank 95 1980 1999 Easterly 1997 SAS Stepwise 8 Eviews Pooled Data Barro1991
1 2 3 4 95 Chenery 1975 8 1970 GNP 9 Basu(2001) Todaro2000, ch3.
GDPGNP (human development) (comprehensive development) 5 Anand, Sudhir and Martin Ravallion, 1993, Human Development in Poor Countries: On the Role of Private Incomes and Publics Services, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7(1), pp.133-150. Barro, Robert J., 1991, Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), pp.407-443. Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995, Economics Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc. Basu, Kaushik, 2001, On the Goals of Development, in Meier and Stiglitz (2001), p.61-83. Chenery, Hollis B. and Moises Syrquin, 1975, Patterns of Development: 1950-1970,
London: Oxford University Press. Easterly, William, 1997, Life During Growth, Poverty, Environment, and Growth, Discussion Paper, World Bank. Fedderke, Johannes and Robert Klitgaard, 1998, Economic Growth and Social Indicator: An Exploratory Analysis, Economic Development & Cultural Change, 46(3), pp.445-489. Johnston, Jack and John Dinardo, 1997, Econometric Methods, Fourth Edition, McGraw-Hill, Inc. Merier, Gerald M. and Joseph E. Stiglitz, Editors, 2001, Frontiers of Development Economics, the Future in Perspective, World Bank and Oxford University Press. Pritchett, Lant and Lawrence H. Summers, 1996, Wealthier is Healthier, The Journal of Human Resources, 31(4), pp.841-868. Shafik, Nemat, 1994, Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis, Oxford Economic Papers, 46, pp.757-73. Todaro, Michael P., 2000, Economic Development, Seventh Edition Addison Wesley Longman. World Bank, 1991, World Development Report 1991. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2000, Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, South-Western College Publishing. 1998 88 12 12 pp.21-40
1 with logarithmic fitted line GNI per capita, ppp (1990) 2 with logarithmic fitted line GNI per capita, ppp (1990)
3 with logarithmic fitted line GNI per capita, ppp (1990) 4 with logarithmic fitted line GNI per capita, ppp (1990)
5 with logarithmic fitted line GNI per capita, ppp (1990) 6 (with logarithmic fitted line) GNI per capita, ppp (1990)
7 with logarithmic fitted line GNI per capita, ppp (1990) 8 (with logarithmic fitted line) GNI per capita, ppp (1990)
1 1980-1999 LnGNI Fixed effect -0.0116*** 0.0064*** -1 (-5.4069) (3.255116) 0.0042*** 0.0052*** -1(3.4794) (5.2611) -0.0248*** (-6.7642) 0.0032 (1.2545) -0.2447*** (-22.3008) 0.0048 (0.7655) 2 R 0.9346 0.8396 0.8116 0.8695 F 18124.72*** 2723.85*** 2691.73*** 882.16*** 95 33 37 25 1264 515 617 132 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 t 2 1980-1999 LnGNI Fixed effect GNI 0.0357*** -0.0426** 0.0662*** 0.0432*** -1 (3.0369) (-2.2436) (3.471497) (2.5784) -0.0110*** -0.0016-0.0269*** -0.0491*** -1 (-6.6357) (-0.8313) (-8.3896) (-8.1129) 2 R 0.9928 0.9126 0.9507 0.9278 F 76729.23*** 1662.41*** 3776.33*** 2609.60*** 95 33 37 25 554 157 195 202 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 t
3 1980-1999 LnGNI Fixed effect -10.0962*** 0.1894** 0.2316*** 0.0685*** / (10.1412) (2.2919) (12.65664) (5.0675) -1-1.1684** -1.6396*** -1.5787* 12.4361*** / (-1.8785) (-3.1268) (-1.7380) (4.5298) 2 R 0.9593 0.8865 0.8552 0.5147 F 29686.84*** 2512.95*** 3246.02*** 441.77*** 95 33 37 25 1257 319 544 394 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 t 4 1980-1999 LnGNI Fixed effect -1 0.2519*** 0.1031*** 0.3732*** 0.3192*** LN (14.6298) (3.7123) (14.3273) (6.8357) 0.0361*** 0.0067 0.0248*** 0.0352*** -1 (26.2273) (0.1892) (9.2288) (16.3278) 2 R 0.9812 0.8308 0.8968 0.9098 F 88209.79*** 2796.57*** 5830.79*** 4595.90*** 95 33 37 25 1686 564 668 454 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 t
5 LnGNI Fixed effect -1 0.0094 0.0395*** -0.0246* -0.0860* (1.1088) (3.2615) (-1.5011) (-1.7552) -0.0003 0.0049 0.0033 0.0009-1(-0.0819) (1.5598) (0.5905) (0.1624) 0.0300* -0.0106 0.0584** 0.0284-1 (1.4778) (-0.2646) (2.2058) (0.7757) -0.0077** -0.0091*** 0.0024-0.0082-1 (-2.3444) (-2.6949) (0.2879) (-0.6338) CO2-10.0665*** 0.5962* 0.0400 0.1131*** (3.2946) (1.6555) (1.1474) (6.1980) -1 2.1184* 7.4596** 0.6196-1.5036 (1.4177) (2.4534) (0.3152) (-0.6753) -10.3043*** 0.1265 0.2886*** 0.1487** LN (5.4624) (0.8189) (4.0940) (2.2835) 0.0090* 0.2600** 0.0063 0.0086-1 (1.6663) (2.0930) (0.8179) (0.8339) 2 R 0.9919 0.9766 0.9656 0.9873 F 3315.76*** 259.75*** 451.61*** 380.15*** 95 33 37 25 191 44 112 35 * 10 ** 5 *** 1 t