:: : 3 ( 100836) :, 90,,,,,,,,, GDP :,,, 10,, 1991 2002, GDP 33 % 34 %,12, 1Π3,,,,20,,,,???,,,, : ( ) 3, 1992,90 (, 1992 ),,,,, 4
2004 1, 1980,21 %, 13 %,, 2002, GDP 34 %(1) 1 GDP 1 20 :,,,, 1980 13 % 1990 19 % 2002 29 % ( ),90 2002 1978,4890 2111, 1162,65 %, 1 1981 2002,, 1 1981 1985 0145 0131 1986 1990 0134 0134 1991 1995 0105 0120 1996 2000 0106 0126 2001 0105 0119 2002-0131 0171 : 0171, ( ) 1, 20,1990,, 2002,,,,, 2 3 GNI GNI,, 2003 GNI, GNIGNI GDP,, 5
:: 2 GNI 3 GNI 2,,GNI, 3,,GNI,, ( ) 2 3 2001 1991 2 20 90 1991 0170 1110 17150 2100 28190 17180 5110 6120 3100 6130 1130 9120 0190 2001 0180 1100 10190 7110 23190 16180 5170 11160 3100 8140 2110 7180 0190 91-01 0110-0110 - 6160 5110-5100 - 1100 0160 5140 0100 2110 0180-1140 0100 : 3 20 80 1991 1181 14173 27132 2113 0144 5150 5104 13164 1163 10135 17140 2001 0160 11166 27110 1192 0161 5159 2182 8197 0194 6130 33148 91-01 - 1121-3107 - 0122-0121 0117 0109-2122 - 4167-0169 - 4105 16108 :,, 6
2004 1,514 511, 211, ;, 616 5, 114,, 1,,0117 0109,, 4167,,, :, 1. (2000),,,,,,,,,1994 1995,, 1993,,,,1993, 4 1993,,3 4,, 2. 4,20,20 80 20 90 7
:: 3., 2000 GDP 47 %, 61 %, 70 %, 59 %, 61 % ;,2000,, 2000 73 % 2001 48 % 2002 40 % 2003 37 %,,2003 65 %, 4. 20 90,,, GDP, 2001, 3911 %,1716 %,,, 5., :,, ;,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,, :, ;, ;, 267 ( ) : 2001,GNI, 4 :, 2002 6 L, I, O,,I > O,I - L O,,, 8
2004 1 4 GNI 01141 01255 01457 3 3 01169-01102 01182 01310 01451 3 01560 3 3 01633 3 3 : 3 5 %; 3 3 1 % 4,, GNI,,,,, (2000) 1995 114 GNP,, 210 1000,,1000 3500, 3500 10000,,, 5 6,,, :, 5,, GNI ;, 5 41175 %,, 63 %( ), 52186 %,,50175 % 57175 % 7 ( ), 17175 58130 %, 65188 % 6,, ;,,,, 20172 %, 46173 %, 0 9265,9266 4,, 9
:: 6 56102 %,, 67162 %,, :, ( Mann2Whitney U Kolmogorov2Smirnov Z ), K- S,,,,,,,,, 5 %, K - S, 1 %,,, 5 M - W U K- S Z vs - 11111 3 39415 3 3 21548 3 3 vs - 5144 3 282 3 11194 vs - 7158 3 16315 3 3 11472 3 vs - 26100 3 63 3 3 21799 3 3 vs - 9129 3 169 3 11689 3 3 vs - 11160 3 100 3 3 214 3 3 :11 ;21 3 5 %, 3 3 1 %;31 2003, : GNI, ;,GNI,, 10,,GNI 756
2004 1 766 2935 ( ),,,,,, GDP GDP ( ) :,, 7 8 7 GDP 8 GDP 7 8, GDP, GDP 20000,,,, 6, 01035,,, GDP, 6 2002 GDP GDP GDP 01617 3 3 01792 3 3 01035 01472 3 : 3 5 % ; 3 3 1 % ; :, :, GDP,, GDP 20000, 3000, GDP,16838,2000,8153, 1000, 17 GDP 8000 ( ), ( ) : GDP 2002,269 64292, 63 %, 21 % ;60 % ; 8418 %,,, 4Π5, 11
::, :GDP ;, ;,;,, (7), 7 GDP R 2 F 01185 3 3 01164 3-01213 3 3 01229 3 3 01135 101207 3 3-01530 3 3 01147 3-01088 01089 01276 251005 3 3 :11 ;2110 %, 3 5 %, 3 3 1 % : : 2002, 2003 5 1. GDP,,GDP, 1 %,GDP, GDP (9), 9, GDP 40000 100000,,?,,, 9 GDP 17182 %,GDP 2., ;,, 10 % 3., 4., : ( ) 5 10,,, 10,,, 12 1.,
2004 1,,,,,,,,,, ; ; 20,,,,,,,,,,,, 2.,,,,,,,,,,, 2,,,,2003 200,,, 5, 8 31,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2003 8 9,, 20,2001 :,,,,, 13
:: 4., 90, 60 %,WTO,,,,,,,,,,,,, 51 90,,2002,(,) 13 % ; 5, 63 %,312 ;200 69,14 ;1000 13,4 ; 22 %,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 100 48,,,, WTO,,,,,, 14
2004 1,,,,,,2001 :,3,2003 : 2002,,2001 :,,2000 :,,2002 ::, 6,2003 :,,2000 : 90,6,2003 :,,2002 2003 :, Baumol. W.J.,Sue Anne Batey Blackman and Edward N. Wolff,1991, Productivity and American Leadership,The Long View,The MIT Press. Bell. D.,1974, The Coming of Post2industrial Society,Heinemann Educational Books Ltd. Blackaby. F.,1979, De2industrializaiton,Heinemann Educational Books,London. Unviersity. Clark. C.,1960, The Conditions of Economic Progress,Macmillan & Co.Lit,London,pp. 490 494. Falvey. R. E.,Gemmell. N.,1996, Are Services Income Elastic? Some New Evidence,The Review of Income and Welath,No. 3,Sept. Fuchs. V. R.,1968, The Service Economy,Columbia University Press,New York. Gershuny.J.,1978, After Industrial Society? The Emerging Self2Service Economy,Humanities Press. Hermelin,Brita, 1997, Professional Business Services : Conceptual Framework and a Swedish Case Study, Uppsala, Proefschrift Uppsala Kravis. I., Heston. A. W., and Summers. R., 1983, The Share of Services in Economic Growth, in Adams, Hickman ed., Global Econometrics : Essays in Honor of Lawrence R. Klein,MIT Press. Rostow. W.,1960, The Stages of Economic Growth,Cambridge University Press. Summers. R.,1985, Services in the International Economy,in Inmann ed., Managing the Service Economy : Prospects and Problems, Cambridge University Press. Walker. R.,1998, Is There a Service Economy? The Changing Capitalist Division of Labor,in Bryson. J.,and Daniels. P. W., Service Industries in the Global Economy,Vol.,,Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. Service Industry and China s Economy : Correlation and Potential of Faster Gro wth Jiang Xiaojuan &Li Hui ( Institute of Finance and Trade Economy, CASS) Abstract : It is a law accepted by us that the proportion of service industry rises with the economic development. In the late 1990 s, China s service industry has stopped the ascending trend beginning from the reform and opening up and kept stable in a low level, which is not consistent with the common law. The reasons include the economic growth mode, economic mechanism, the location and policy of our nation in the global production system and statistic method, etc. This paper reviewed the development and internal structure transformation of china s service industry. From different aspects, based on different types of data, this paper primarily explored the relation of economic growth and service industry development, established a multivariate regression model to analyze the influence of income level and urbanization etc. It is expected that when our country s per capita GDP goes up to a new level, our service industry proportion will rise significantly. At last, the paper brought forward some advises to promote the development of service industry. Key Words :Service Industry ; Correlation ; Potential of Faster Growth JEL Classification :L890,O140 ( : ) (: ) 15