* 2000 2009 62. 3% 48. 0% 46. 4% 35. 1% 1 2009 2000 2009 10 17 22. 13% 24. 93% 2 2004 2004 2005 2009 2009 2008 Consumer Finance Samuelson 1969 Merton 1971 Tufano 2009 * 100191 hanly1 @ 163. com chunyuedu@ yahoo. cn 2011 9 70831001 70821061 1 2 2001 2010 2001 2010 2000 54. 56% 32. 43% 2009 48. 93% 24. 00% 30
2011 1 1 2009 7 3 1 1 2010 2011 7 7. 5 15. 33% 1 1 Modigliani & Brumberg 1954 Ando & Modigliani 1963 Samuelson 1969 Merton 1969 1971 Hall 1978 Modigliani & Brumberg 1980 Gourinchas & Parker 2002 Samuelson & Merton Gourinchas & Parker Gourinchas & Parker MaxE T t = 0 β t u C t + β T +1 v W T +1 W T +1 = ( W t + Y t - C ) R - B t R b t ( = 0 1 2 T) W T +1 0 t u C t β v W T + 1 W t Y t R B t R b Tracy et al. 1999 Serrano & Hoesli 2009 2008 2007 1 http / / www. pbc. gov. cn / publish / html /2011s03a. htm 31
2009 Cho 2010 2007 2009 2009 2010 Monte-Carlo & Bootstrap Ynesta 2008 OECD 2010 2010 2008 4. 16 7% Campbell 2006 Shum & Faig 2006 Calvet et al. 2009 Bertola et al. 2006 Coulibaly & Li 2006 Benjamin & Chinloy 2007 2008 2004 Becker & Shabani 2010 2006 SCF U 2004 2001 2009 2008 2009 Gormley et al. 2010 2008 2005 2010 2002 2008 Samuelson Merton and Tufano 32
2011 1 1 2 3 4 3 5 4 Ⅰ - a CONSUMPTION i = C i + β 1 DEBT i + μ i Ⅰ - a CONSUMPTION DEBT C μ 1 Ⅰ - b Ⅰ - a EASTCONS i = C i + β 1 EASTDEBT i + μ i Ⅰ - b EASTCONS EASTDEBT C μ 1. 1 2 2. 2000 2009 2000 2008 7. 15% 3 4 3. Campbell 2006 Shum & Faig 2006 5 4. 1 2 3 4 5 10 2001 2009 0 6 9 12 16 33
I 1 5. 2010 2008 4. 16 7% Ⅱ Ⅲ CONS i = C i + β 1 DEP i + β 2 MOR i + β 3 INV i + β 4 INS i + μ i Ⅱ CONS i = C i + β 1 DEP i + β 2 MOR i + β 3 INV i + β 4 INS i + β 5 CAR i + β 6 EDU i + β 7 SI i + μ i Ⅲ CONS DEP MOR INV INS CAR EDU SI C β μ i 1 2 29 Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Ⅹ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅹ 6 7 8 CSW Cross Section Weights Eviews 6. 0 2 5 1000 2003 2009 29 2002 2008 3 7 Ⅰ 10 19 1 2 2 3 0. 9 1 19 34 2 3 2008 2002 2002
2011 1 2 10165. 64 3228. 55 19397. 9 5069 70 4486. 22 2398. 96 11082. 3 785. 2 70 299. 41 230. 46 983. 4 29. 4 70 154. 30 200. 81 1209. 9 8. 04 70 150. 79 86. 46 397. 2 36. 7 70 6. 03 5. 59 22. 7 0. 15 70 8. 68 1. 03 11. 09 7. 18 70 1037. 39 488. 41 2295. 0 280. 68 70 3 6896. 89 1527. 76 11146. 8 4462 133 2481. 05 1551. 46 9670. 7 867. 5 133 135. 84 94. 99 614. 7 17. 0 133 48. 56 45. 61 243. 12 2. 06 133 91. 51 35. 18 214. 6 43. 6 133 2. 03 2. 13 11. 11 0. 05 133 7. 72 0. 69 8. 89 6. 04 133 528. 48 222. 41 1087. 52 146. 28 133 Ⅰ - a Ⅰ - b 4 39% 1 1. 34 1 1. 09 4 Ⅰ - a Ⅰ - b R 2 R 2 F Ⅰ - a 3139. 250 *** 9. 575 1. 335456 *** 16. 399 0. 981747 0. 978097 268. 9333 Ⅰ - b 4355. 970 *** 9. 807 1. 087412 *** 13. 856 0. 974619 0. 969543 192. 0015 t * ** *** 10% 5% 1% Ⅱ Ⅰ 5 0. 07 35
5 Ⅱ R 2 F *** 5. 77 17. 75 0. 369 *** 8. 72 0. 089 *** 3. 12 0. 010 0. 74-0. 034-0. 61 0. 95384 89. 01 4. 792 *** 34. 67 0. 440 *** 21. 29 0. 088 *** 8. 77 0. 006 * 1. 49 0. 048 ** 2. 31 0. 974 190. 46 Ⅲ Ⅲ DEP MOR INV INS Ⅳ Ⅴ Ⅹ Hausman Ⅵ Ⅹ 6 7 Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅹ F 94% 6 Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Ⅵ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Ⅵ 6. 463 *** 19. 02 5. 73 *** 19. 67 6. 235 *** 23. 23 5. 43 *** 21. 83 6. 182 *** 18. 72 5. 919 *** 20. 77 5. 64 *** 16. 84 5. 645 *** 21. 68 0. 065 ** 2. 03 0. 2 *** 6. 15 0. 065 ** 2. 20 0. 18 *** 5. 53-0. 021-1. 25 0. 051 *** 3. 22-0. 015-0. 84 0. 035 ** 2. 09 0. 0096 1. 34 0. 0023 0. 41 0. 007 0. 81 0. 0004 0. 07 * - 0. 047-1. 73 0. 00054 0. 02 0. 079 *** 0. 054 *** 5. 76 5. 44 0. 074 *** 5. 99 0. 06 *** 6. 19 0. 085 *** 6. 22 0. 081 *** 7. 94 0. 072 *** 5. 41 0. 084 *** 7. 97-0. 102-0. 66 0. 042 0. 33-0. 098-0. 75 0. 192 * 1. 62-0. 027-0. 18 0. 36 *** 2. 76 0. 261 * 1. 75 0. 463 *** 3. 70 *** 0. 38 9. 60 0. 195 *** 5. 64 0. 369 *** 10. 43 0. 263 *** 9. 05 0. 442 *** 11. 48 0. 321 *** 10. 51 0. 417 *** 11. 17 0. 357 *** 14. 37 R 2 0. 9893 0. 9629 0. 9906 0. 9603 0. 9882 0. 9494 0. 9499 0. 9505 F 306. 39 111. 17 452. 97 121. 01 360. 70 93. 72 308. 23 95. 94 36
2011 1 7 Ⅶ Ⅷ Ⅸ Ⅹ Ⅶ Ⅷ Ⅸ Ⅹ 6. 394 *** 19. 84 5. 6 *** 20. 30 6. 339 *** 19. 44 5. 346 *** 20. 21 6. 159 *** 19. 22 5. 709 *** 21. 4 5. 71 *** 14. 84 5. 431 *** 21. 75 0. 072 ** 2. 36 0. 181 *** 5. 48 0. 069 ** 2. 19 0. 2 *** 6. 32-0. 007-0. 18 0. 176 *** 5. 51-0. 016-0. 92 0. 05 *** 3. 40 0. 008 0. 87 0. 001 0. 22 * - 0. 044-1. 70 0. 016 0. 57-0. 047 * - 1. 70 0. 022 0. 90 0. 086 *** 0. 085 *** 6. 93 8. 23 0. 076 *** 5. 64 0. 061 *** 6. 00 0. 074 *** 5. 33 0. 055 *** 5. 8 0. 074 *** 5. 02 0. 061 *** 6. 03 0. 032 0. 22 0. 481 *** 3. 75-0. 029-0. 20 0. 201 *** 1. 65-0. 11-0. 72 0. 053 0. 44 0. 245 * 1. 55 0. 189 * 1. 58 *** 0. 412 12. 22 0. 348 *** 12. 91 0. 357 *** 10. 14 0. 252 *** 7. 87 0. 392 *** 9. 60 0. 197 *** 5. 84 0. 419 *** 8. 93 0. 263 *** 9. 02 R 2 0. 9892 0. 9482 0. 9889 0. 9577 0. 9883 0. 9642 0. 9502 0. 9603 F 394. 88 91. 53 351. 21 107. 38 332. 91 127. 62 244. 43 114. 51 6 7 2-3 Ⅰ - a Ⅰ - b 1 2004 1 II MOR 37
Ⅵ Ⅹ 2008 2006 Ⅲ 6 7 1% Ⅸ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅹ CAR SI SICAR 6 7 Ⅲ - a Ⅳ - a Ⅹ - a 8 SICAR 10% 0. 007 0. 13 38
2011 1 8 Ⅲ - a Ⅹ - a Ⅲ - a Ⅳ - a Ⅴ - a Ⅵ - a 6. 391 *** 17. 11 5. 83 *** 19. 22 6. 192 *** 21. 30 5. 55 *** 21. 59 6. 117 *** 16. 95 6. 093 *** 20. 82 5. 56 *** 12. 84 5. 81 *** 22. 62 0. 058 * 1. 75 0. 19 *** 5. 43 0. 06 ** 2. 00 0. 16 *** 4. 86-0. 024 * - 1. 42 0. 051 *** 3. 23-0. 016-0. 92 0. 036 ** 2. 21 0. 0085 1. 12 0. 0016 0. 28 0. 007 0. 82-0. 001-0. 17 ** - 0. 055-1. 98-0. 001-0. 05-0. 0098-0. 93 0. 012 1. 14-0. 006 *** - 0. 63 0. 013 1. 27-0. 007-0. 70 0. 030 ** 2. 59-0. 008-0. 63 0. 030 *** 2. 63 R 2 0. 98971 0. 96296 0. 9908 0. 9611 0. 98867 0. 9518 0. 9506 0. 9544 F 294. 20 105. 99 421. 13 117. 02 342. 92 93. 49 246. 17 99. 11 Ⅶ - a Ⅷ - a Ⅸ - a Ⅹ - a 6. 29 *** 19. 06 5. 77 *** 21. 06 6. 306 *** 18. 27 5. 45 *** 19. 83 6. 151 *** 17. 28 5. 807 *** 21. 01 6. 33 *** 21. 69 5. 541 *** 21. 48 0. 060 ** 1. 91 0. 167 *** 4. 82 0. 062 ** 1. 94 0. 188 *** 5. 64 0. 044 * 1. 44 0. 161 *** 4. 84-0. 018-1. 03 0. 05 *** 3. 40 0. 009 * 1. 40 0. 00036 0. 06 ** - 0. 051-2. 01 0. 010 0. 35-0. 052 ** - 1. 92 0. 020 0. 80 * - 0. 013-1. 38 0. 029 ** 2. 55-0. 010-0. 95 0. 012 1. 08-0. 004-0. 39 0. 012 1. 19-0. 002-0. 20 0. 013 1. 25 R 2 0. 9902 0. 9520 0. 9894 0. 9582 0. 9886 0. 9641 0. 9917 0. 9610 F 397. 31 93. 94 336. 74 103. 20 311. 31 120. 97 431. 32 110. 87 1 8 2 VI - a Campbell 2006 Shum & Faig 2006 Calvet Campbell and Sodini 2009 39
Ⅲ IV V VII Ⅲ X 40
2011 1 2009 3 2008 10 2006 12 2010 2009 7 2004 11 2004 11 2007 2 2007 11 2009 3 2004 4 2010 1997 2007 26 5 2008 1 2008 7 2010 2009 9 1 2009 13 2009 8 2007 6 2010 1 2001 2010 2005 1 2009 1 Ando A. and F. Modigliani 1963 The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving Aggregate Implications and Tests American Economic Review 53 55 84. Beck N. and J. N. Katz 1995 WhatTo Do and Not To Do with Time-Series-Cross-Section Data in Comparative Politics American Political Science Review Vol. 89 634 647. Becker T. A. and R. Shabani 2010 Outstanding Debt and the Household Portfolio Review of Financial Studies Vol. 23 Issue 7 2900 2934. Benjamin J. D. and P. Chinloy 2008 Home Equity Household Savings and Consumption Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 37 21 32. Bertola G. R. Disney and C. Grant 2006 The Economics of Consumer Credit MIT Press. Calvet L. E. J. Y. Campbell and P. Sodini 2009 Fight or Flight Portfolio Rebalancing by Individual Investors Quarterly Journal of Economics Feb. Campbell J. Y. 2006 Household Finance Journal of Finance 61 1553 1604. Cho S. W. 2010 Household Wealth Accumulation and Portfolio Choices in Korea Journal of Housing Economics Mar Vol. 19 Issue 1 13 25. Coulibaly B. and G. Li 2006 Do Homeowners Increase Consumption after the Last Mortgage Payment An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis Review of Economics and Statistics 88 10 19. Faig M. and P. Shum 2002 Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Personal Illiquid Projects Journal of Finance Feb. Vol. 57 No. 1. Gormley T. H. Liu and G. Zhou 2010 Limited Participation and Consumption-Saving Puzzles A Simple Explanation and the Role 41
of Insurance Journal of Financial Economics 96 331 344. Gourinchas P. and J. A. Parker 2002 Consumption over the Life Cycle Econometrica 70 47 89. Hall R. E. 1978 Stochastic Implication of the Life Cycle Permanent Income Hypothesis Theory and Evidence Journal of Political Economy 86 971 987. Merton R. C. 1969 Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty The Continuous-Time case Review of Economics and Statistics 151 247 257. Merton R. C. 1971 Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model Journal of Economic Theory 3 373 413. Modigliani F. and R. Brumberg 1954 Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function An Interpretation of Cross-section Data Rutgers University Press. Modigliani F. and R. Brumberg 1980 Utility Analysis and Aggregate Consumption Functions An Attempt at Integration MIT Press. Samuelson P. A. 1969 Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming Review of Economics Statistics 51 239 246. Serrano C. and M. Hoesli 2010 Housing and Its Role in the Household Portfolio in Colombia Swiss Finance Institute Working Paper http / / ssrn. com / abstract = 1534657. Shum P. and M. Faig 2006 What Explains Household Stock Holdings Journal of Banking and Finance Sep. Vol. 30 Issue 9. Tufano P. 2009 Consumer Finance Journal of Economic Literature1 227 247. Tracy J. H. Schneider and S. Chan 1999 Are Stocks Overtaking Real Estate in Household Portfolios Current Issues in Economics and Finance Apr. Vol. 5 No. 5. Ynesta I. 2008 Households Wealth Composition Across OECD Countries and Financial Risks Borne by Households Working Paper 1995 2864. Regional Difference of the Impact of Urban Households Consumer Finance Han Liyan and Du Chunyue School of Economics and Management Beihang University Abstract The importance of consumer finance increases with promoting domestic demand to boost the economic development nevertheless regional difference of consumer finance emerges with the unbalanced economic development. This paper aims to research the influence on consumption by consumption upgrading inadequate social security and unbalanced regional development using the panel data of urban households borrowing and lending expenditure and combining the economic transformation characters. It is concluded that the regional difference is widespread in quality and quantity. The positive relationship of consumption with consumption upgrading social security and deposit exists nationally. Mortgage and education significantly influence consumption in Midwest region while insurance in the East. Government should grasp the opportunity of consumption upgrading and social security improving and continue to enhance the education input introduce talents increase development efforts in Midwest to improve the local residents population quality income and savings in addition to relax the borrowing restrictions. Key Words Household Asset Portfolio Consumer Finance Regional Difference Consumption Upgrading Social Security JEL Classification D12 D91 E21 R11 42