2014 12 22 () 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% S1060514120001 021-38662845 Puqiang587@pingan.com.cn S0500513080001 021-38660280 Guozhe307@pingan.com.cn 300 2010 90% 50%30% 20% 2007 8000 / 37% 15% CR3 75% 2 1.1 / 10 3 / 10 2.3 / 65% 20% 2011 2012 4 20 7% I+G 1 2 I+G I+G I+G EPS/ PE 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 600873 0.10 0.14 0.40 0.45 66.1 48.3 16.8 15.1 600866 0.04-0.17 0.20 0.28 193-38.6 26.8
(600873) 73 21 63 I+G 1 800 10% 5 2014 I+G 2015 39.8 20142015 2016 EPS 0.140.40 0.45 48.316.8 15.1 600866 3 3.5 1 I+G I+G 2014-2016 EPS -0.170.2 0.282015 2016 38.6 26.8 0546.HK 105 4 70 TTM 10 2 / 17
600873... 13 5.2600866... 14 5.3 0546.HK... 14 3 / 17
1... 5 2... 5 3 /... 6 4... 6 5... 7 6 /kg... 8 7... 8 8... 9 9 20%... 10 10 98%/kg... 10 11... 11 12 2011... 11 13 7%... 12 14 I+G... 12 15... 13 16... 14 4 / 17
1 2 5 / 17
3 / 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2007H1 2007H2 2008H1 2008H2 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 4 6 / 17
5 YOY 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 7 / 17
6 /kg 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 wind 7 21 8 7 6 5 4 4 3.5 11 1 10 1 10 1.5 40.5 10 2 4 4 5 8 / 17
15 73%8 40.515 75%50% 1 8 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2007 2010 2013 20132717.7 65%41 20% 9 / 17
9 20% YOY 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% I+G 2009-20112011 20112012 20125.552013 6013 10 98%/kg 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 wind 10 / 17
11 80 26 20 6 25 15 10 37 10 3 5 4 3 7 3 2 205 12 2011 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11 / 17
2014 2-3 2014 4 20 9800 / 13 7% YOY 250 200 150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 7% 1/4 I+G I+G I+G 1 2 I+G I+G I+G 14 I+G 1 1 1 1.2 1 2000 12 / 17
0.8 0.6 5.6 600873(600866) 600873 7321 63I+G 18 800 10%52014 I+G 2015201420152016EPS0.140.400.45 48.316.815.1 15 73 40 10 23 I+G 1 21 50 8 7 6 6 20 24 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 1 0.03 1000 13 / 17
5.2600866 19641981 2000I+G 16 I+G 1 3 3.5 11 10 0.06 3.5 2 /1.3-1.4 / 3000-4000 / 1.2 I+G 2014-2016 EPS -0.170.2 0.282015 2016 38.6 26.8 5.3 0546.HK 105 470TTM10 1 2 14 / 17
600873 : : 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 4796 5452 7688 8255 7780 9601 15609 16389 1217 800 900 1215 6325 7574 11864 12456 199 323 514 503 37 41 66 69 411 507 824 866 497 613 859 901 339 1342 1524 1535 395 480 718 754 1637 1961 3071 3225 240 351 285 169 993 520 854 912 5 5 5 5 13917 13812 13216 12334 0 0 0 0 122 110 120 120 52 50 50 50 10637 11224 10991 10387 333 586 1863 2085 717 717 717 717 194 120 120 120 2443 1761 1389 1111 28 28 36 31 18714 19264 20904 20589 500 678 1946 2174 8730 8176 8225 6138 96 126 360 402 4213 4142 1829 0 404 553 1586 1772 991 1595 2808 2507 0 0 0 0 3526 2439 3588 3631 404 553 1586 1772 1957 1947 1951 1952 EBITDA 1441 1965 3288 3461 1000 1000 1000 1000 EPS 0.10 0.14 0.40 0.45 957 947 951 952 10686 10123 10177 8090 0 0 0 0 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 3108 3980 3980 3980 (%) 2240 2240 2240 2240 (%) 4.2 23.4 62.6 5.0 2678 2920 4507 6279 (%) -52.1 75.9 217.7 11.9 8027 9141 10727 12499 (%) -33.6 37.0 186.9 11.7 18714 19264 20904 20589 (%) 18.7 21.1 24.0 24.0 : (%) 5.2 5.2 5.8 10.2 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E ROE(%) 5.0 6.0 14.8 14.2 983 1022 2971 2539 ROIC(%) 3.5 5.2 12.5 13.5 404 553 1586 1772 868 1027 1140 1208 (%) 57.1 52.5 48.7 39.3 240 351 285 169 (%) 58.1 56.1 34.8 21.6-52 -50-50 -50 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3-465 -1120 20-534 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8-11 261-11 -25-1455 -1134-460 -250 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1140 800 500 300 29.8 34.8 35.3 30.5 75-12 10 0 4.3 5.9 5.4 4.7-240 -345 50 50 484-305 -2411-1974 () 0.10 0.14 0.40 0.45 1236-71 -2312-1829 () 0.25 0.26 0.75 0.64-400 0 0 0 () 2.02 2.30 2.70 3.14 400 872 0 0 2053 0 0 0 P/E 66.2 48.3 16.8 15.1-2805 -1105-98 -145 P/B 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.1-23 -417 100 315 EV/EBITDA 18.1 13.3 7.9 7.5 15 / 17
600866 : : 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 969 681 1267 1580 903 872 1668 2015 188 262 500 605 841 767 1245 1516 94 84 161 197 5 4 9 10 78 26 52 73 27 24 38 42 19 15 25 30 152 148 200 222 319 243 428 561 66 21 35 36 270 52 101 114 74 70 71 71 163 1389 1251 1112-2 0 0 0 166 80 80 80 123 0 0 0 1178 1068 934 797-140 -163 69 117 193 204 204 204 150 54 63 72 98 36 33 31 3 5 4 3 260 2070 2518 2691 7-114 129 186 415 662 1000 1016 3-17 19 28 180 494 744 712 5-97 110 158 144 144 233 280-16 -1 1 2 90 23 23 23 20-96 108 156 724 40 40 40 EBITDA 81-4 244 293 40 40 40 40 EPS 0.04-0.17 0.20 0.28 684 0 0 0 1138 702 1040 1056-7 -8-7 -5 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 550 550 550 550 (%) 498 498 498 498 (%) -17.3-3.4 91.3 20.8 425 329 437 593 (%) -152.6-216.6-57.7 69.7 147 1377 1485 1641 (%) -90.0-574.7 12.7 44.1 260 2070 2518 2691 (%) 6.9 12.0 25.4 24.8 : (%) 2.2-11.0 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E ROE(%) 1.4-7.0 7.3 9.5-28 283 25 172 ROIC(%) -2.4-7.7 5.3 7.6 5-97 110 158 155 138 139 140 (%) 43.7 33.9 41.3 39.2 66 21 35 36 (%) 21.4 79.5 77.6 73.4-123 0 0 0 2.3 1.0 1.3 1.6-153 361-258 -161 1.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 23-140 -1-1 4 151 0-0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 103 0 0 0 8.8 9.4 13.6 11.2-99 -134 0 0 4.5 5.3 6.6 5.9 8 16 0-0 19-360 214-68 () 0.04-0.17 0.20 0.28-76 314 249-32 () -0.05 0.51 0.04 0.31-382 0 0 0 () 2.68 2.50 2.70 2.98 0 0 0 0-46 0 0 0 P/E 206.2-43.4 38.6 26.8 523-674 -35-36 P/B 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.5-5 74 239 104 EV/EBITDA 57.1-1188.5 19.0 15.8 16 / 17
6 300 20% 6 300 10% 20% 6 300 10% 6 300 10% 6 300 5% 6 300 5% 6 300 5% 2014