6 2 2007 1 () China Econo mic Quarterly Vol. 6, No. 2 J anuary, 2007 : 3 1959 1961, ;,, ( FAD),,, FAD,,, ( Sen, 1981),, 1943 1972 1974 1949 7 %21 %,,,,,,, 1958 566 1959 497 ; 1959 6. 7, 1961 6. 6, 1, 1960 1 68. 58, 100 7, 1958 1962 633 (, 2005), 3 :,,210095 ; (025) 84396764 ; E2mail :ivannj @163. com CCER,, 1,,
488 () 6,,, (, 2005),,, 1952,, 50,,,,,,,, 1953, (, 1988),,, ( Walker, 1984),,,, 2,, 1955 3,,, (, 1991),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1954,,,,, ( ), 2 1957 1. 931,,, 1958,2000,4532, 13. 8 1 3. 5 1 (,1984)
2 : 489,,,,,,,,,,, 1958,, 11, 99. 1 % (, 1988),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Lin and Yang, 2000 ; ),, 3,,,,, 2005,,,,,,,, 1959 1961,, :, ;,, ;, ; 3,,,,
490 () 6, Panel data ;,,,, ( Food Availabil2 ity Decline, FAD), FAD,, FAD,,, ( Entitlement),,,,, 4, (), (),,,, (),,,,,,,,, 20 80, 1959 1961,, Ansley (1981) 5 1650 ; John (1982) Peng (1987) 2300 ; Ashton (1984) 2950 ; Banister (1987) 3000 ; (1993) 1956 1957 4,,,, 5,
2 : 491 1962 1963, 1960 1961 1395 ; Cheng (1994) 4300 ; 3300 (Ashton et al., 1984) ; 2005 1,, 1959 1961 3250, 1959 1961, FAD,,,, (, 2005) FAD,,, FAD,, 1960 1959 1961,,, (Lin, 1990),,,, 1958,,, ;, Yang and Li (2005),,,, ;, ( Yang, 1996) (Chang and Wen, 1997),, (, 2003),, 1959 1961,,, (, 1994),,,,
492 () 6, (Lin and Yang, 2000),,, ;,,,, (Bernstein, 1985),,,, 6,,,, ( ),, 7,,,,,, 1953, 1958 ;,,,,,,, 1957 8 9. 47 ;,,,,,,, 1960 100. 85,,,, 6,,,,,, 7 1955 :,, (,1991) 8 1957, 1957,,1958,,1960
2 : 493 () 55 9 1954 1977, 1954, 1954,, ; 1977 1978,,,,,, ; 1986, 1982 (1949 1980), 1999 1 1959 1961,, 1957 1. 026 %1960 1. 841 %, 79. 4 %, 135. 5 %, 1960, 1. 4,,, 1 ( ) :,,, 1999 9, 1982
494 () 6, 2 1960, ;,,, 1959 8. 5 %,, 3,,,, 1961, 1961,, 1961 1962, 1962,, : 2 () : 3
2 : 495 (, 2005),, 1, 1960, 223. 9, 100. 85,,,,,,,,, 69 %,,,, 5 %, 10,,,,,, 11,,, 4 1959 1961,, 12,,,, 1973 13 ;, 45 %, 14,,,, 15 10,( ),,1987,10 11,,,1991,3 12,,,, 13,,,1980,117 14,,,1980,118 15,,, ;,,
496 () 6 4 : (),,,,, ;,,, : DR = f ( C, H), DR, C, H,,,,,,
2 : 497, : C = f ( G), G :,,,,,,,,,,, 16,, FAD,,, ( FAD), FAD,,,,,,, : G = f ( R, IP, POP,CPP,U P), R, IP, PO P (/ ), CPP, U P (/ ), DR = f ( H, R, IP, PO P,CPP,U P), () 1,, 1959, 1958 55. 9 %, 1959 1958 1. 5, 1959, 1960, 1963, 1956 1960,,, 1959 1958 20. 3 %, 16,,,,,,,,(1)
498 () 6, 1960,,, 1964,, 1962 1957, 1965,,,,, 1959 1958 0. 002, 3. 83 %, 1959,, 1960 1. 6 %, 0. 59 %, 1962, 1 ( ) ( %) () ( %) (1/ 10 ) 1954 1955 1956 12. 12 11. 66 12. 81 14. 19 14. 00 13. 83 9. 96 10. 29 10. 17 2. 11 2. 07 2. 00 1957 10. 04 14. 89 357 9. 33 1. 92 1958 9. 33 16. 25 335 8. 96 1. 76 1959 14. 55 17. 73 267 8. 71 1. 78 1960 18. 41 18. 06 270 8. 56 1. 77 1961 13. 35 16. 45 252 7. 28 1. 77 1962 10. 36 14. 86 270 7. 41 1. 74 1963 9. 04 14. 49 313 8. 05 1. 69 1964 10. 13 14. 24 373 9. 58 1. 66 1965 9. 48 14. 17 388 10. 30 1. 60 1966 8. 05 13. 99 410 10. 28 1. 56 1967 7. 81 13. 34 408 10. 75 1. 51 1968 7. 65 13. 25 404 10. 68 1. 46 1969 6. 80 12. 09 392 10. 21 1. 42 1970 6. 85 11. 43 411 9. 84 1. 38 1971 7. 38 11. 55 431 9. 52 1. 34 1972 6. 84 11. 54 429 9. 92 1. 32 1973 6. 52 12. 63 448 10. 23 1. 29 1974 6. 61 12. 08 443 10. 21 1. 27 1975 6. 46 12. 02 439 9. 97 1. 25 1976 6. 48 12. 15 456 9. 60 1. 23 1977 6. 48 12. 11 431 9. 75 1. 22 :,, (1949 1980) :, (1949 1980),
2 : 499 (),, : 1.,,,,,, (Chang and Wen, 1997),, 2.,,,,, () ( Panel data), :, ;, ; 1957, (unbalanced panels), (balanced panels), : lndrit = 0 + 1 Ci + 2 Y t + 3 IPit + 4 lnpopit + 5 lncppit + 6 U Pit + it. (1) 0,, Ci,,,,,, Y t,,,,
500 () 6,,,, 1959 1960 1961 1, 0,,, (1) : lndrit = 0 + 1 Ci + 2 Y t + 3 IPit + 4 lnpo Pit + 5 lncppit + 6 U Pit + 7 lndrit - 1 + 8 DIPit + 9 lndpo Pit + 10 DlnCPPit + 11 DU Pit + 12 DlnDRit - 1 + it. (2), lncpp, 5 0,, 3 4 6 0,,, ( 5 + 10 ) < 0 ;,,,,, ( 3 + 8 ) < 0 ( 4 + 9 ) > 0 ( 6 + 11 ) < 0, 8 9 10 11 0 ;,,, 12 0,, 7 0,,,, : R1 R2 R3, 1959, R1 = 1, 0 ; 1960, R2 = 1, 0 ; 1961, R3 = 1, 0 15, (2) : lndrit = 0 + 1 Ci + 2 Y t + 3 IPit + 4 lnpo Pit + 5 lncppit + 6 U Pit + 7 lndrit - 1 + 8 R1 IPit + 9 R1 lnpo Pit + 10 R1 lncppit + 11 R1 U Pit + 12 R1lnDRit - 1 + 13 R2 IPit + 14 R2 lnpopit + 15 R2lnCPPit + 16 R2 U Pit + 17 R2lnDRit - 1 + 18 R3 IPit + 19 R3 lnpopit + 20 R3lnCPPit + 21 R3 U Pit + 22 R3 lndrit - 1 + it, (3) 8 1959, 13 1960, 18 1961,,,,
2 : 501 2 2 lndr Log( ), = U P, = / IP lnpop, = (1949 1980) / Log( ), = (1949 1980) / lncpp Log () (1949 1980) D R1 R2 R3,1, 0 1959,1959 1,0 1960,1960 1,0 1961,1961 1,0 (2) (3),, :,, (2) (3),,,,,,,,,, (), 3 (2),,,,, 0. 372-0. 009,, R 2 0. 674 0. 709,,, 4 (3),, (2),
502 () 6 3 (2) (1) (2) (3) (4) U P( ) - 0. 007 3 ( - 3. 119) - 0. 004 3 3 ( - 2. 072) - 0. 016 3 ( - 3. 302) - 0. 012 3 ( - 2. 789) IP() - 0. 129 ( - 1. 480) - 0. 206 3 3 ( - 2. 563) - 0. 206 ( - 0. 601) - 0. 494 ( - 1. 576) lncpp() - 0. 152 3 ( - 3. 350) - 0. 154 3 ( - 3. 665) 0. 035 (0. 691) 0. 013 (0. 279) lnpop ( ) 0. 108 (1. 359) 0. 120 (1. 631) 0. 303 3 3 (2. 303) 0. 232 3 3 3 (1. 935) LnDR t - 1 () 0. 413 3 (11. 228) 0. 441 3 (11. 386) U P D( ) 0. 001 (0. 258) 0. 002 (0. 578) 0. 032 3 (4. 313) 0. 032 3 (4. 708) IP D( ) - 1. 315 3 ( - 5. 120) - 0. 767 3 ( - 3. 136) - 2. 399 3 ( - 2. 875) - 1. 544 3 3 ( - 2. 019) lncpp D( ) 0. 256 3 (3. 148) 0. 170 3 3 (2. 230) - 0. 045 ( - 0. 431) - 0. 098 ( - 1. 012) lnpop D( ) - 0. 090 3 3 ( - 2. 508) - 0. 118 3 ( - 3. 540) 0. 603 3 3 (1. 970) 0. 883 3 (3. 152) LnDR t - 1 D( ) - 0. 088 3 3 3 ( - 1. 658) - 0. 110 3 3 ( - 2. 082) U P t - 1 ( ) 0. 005 (1. 204) 0. 005 (1. 327) IP t - 1 () - 0. 027 ( - 0. 321) 0. 028 (0. 358) lncpp t - 1 () - 0. 322 3 ( - 6. 324) - 0. 243 3 ( - 5. 177) lnpopt - 1 ( ) - 0. 069 ( - 0. 622) 0. 039 (0. 385) U P t - 1 D( ) - 0. 029 3 ( - 4. 816) - 0. 028 3 ( - 5. 039) IP t - 1 D( ) 0. 972 (1. 295) 0. 721 (1. 050) lncpp t - 1 D( ) 0. 338 3 (3. 461) 0. 290 3 (3. 244) lnpopt - 1 D( ) - 0. 710 3 3 ( - 2. 320) - 1. 036 3 ( - 3. 694) R 2 0. 674 0. 722 0. 709 0. 758 200. 883 295. 317 253. 468 354. 221 0. 372-0. 009 0. 357-0. 036 : t, 3 1 %, 3 3 5 %, 3 33 10 % :, (1949 1980),1982 ;,,1986
2 : 503 (2), IPlnCPP,,, ; U P lnpo P 10 %,,,,,,,,,, lncppt - 1,,,,,,,,, (2), lncpp, lncppt - 1,,,,,, lncpp D lncppt - 1 lncppt - 1 D, - 0. 029,,, (U P U P D ),,,,, (U Pt - 1 U Pt - 1 D ),,, ( IP D IPt - 1 IPt - 1 D ), ( IPt - 1 IPt - 1 D ),,,,,,,, (lnpoplnpop D lnpo Pt - 1 lnpopt - 1 ), CPP FAD, FAD, U PIP POP, D
504 () 6,, lncpp lncpp D, U P U P D IP D lnpop lnpo P D, FAD, - 0. 029, - 1. 442, (3), 4, 2,, U PIP lnpop lncpp (2),, 1959 (U Pt - 1 R1 ) 1960 ( U Pt - 1 R2 ), 1961 ( U Pt - 1 R3 ) ;,, (U P) 1959 1960, 1961,, 1959, 1960, ( CPP),,, ;, ( POP),, 4 (3) (1) (2) (3) (4) U P( ) - 0. 007 3 ( - 3. 248) - 0. 004 3 3 ( - 2. 143) - 0. 014 3 ( - 3. 075) - 0. 012 3 ( - 2. 935) IP() - 0. 140 ( - 1. 645) - 0. 218 3 ( - 2. 836) - 0. 220 ( - 0. 653) - 0. 535 3 3 ( - 1. 797) lncpp() - 0. 118 3 ( - 2. 629) - 0. 118 3 ( - 2. 896) 0. 080 (1. 613) 0. 039 (0. 895) lnpop ( ) 0. 108 (1. 386) 0. 115 (1. 633) 0. 256 3 3 (2. 022) 0. 222 3 3 (1. 988) LnDR t - 1 () 0. 413 3 (11. 739) 0. 436 3 (12. 129)
2 : 505 ( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) U P t - 1 ( ) 0. 005 (1. 313) 0. 005 (1. 467) IP t - 1 () - 0. 029 ( - 0. 359) 0. 020 (0. 280) lncpp t - 1 () - 0. 281 3 ( - 5. 707) - 0. 217 3 ( - 4. 982) lnpopt - 1 ( ) - 0. 091 ( - 0. 856) 0. 026 (0. 276) U P R1 (1959 ) - 0. 007 ( - 1. 187) 0. 006 (1. 043) 0. 020 (1. 603) 0. 079 3 (6. 373) IP R1 (1959 ) - 1. 748 3 ( - 5. 002) - 0. 268 (0. 763) - 2. 863 ( - 1. 635) 3. 180 3 3 (1. 973) lncpp R1 (1959 ) - 0. 179 ( - 1. 472) - 0. 012 ( - 0. 107) - 0. 763 3 ( - 5. 029) - 0. 327 3 3 ( - 2. 377) lnpop R1 (1959 ) - 0. 060 ( - 1. 224) - 0. 096 3 3 ( - 2. 155) - 0. 967 3 3 3 ( - 1. 814) - 1. 810 3 ( - 3. 768) LnDR t - 1 R1 (1959 ) 0. 472 3 (4. 668) 0. 700 3 (6. 702) U P R2 (1960 ) 0. 002 (0. 370) 0. 005 (1. 031) 0. 026 3 (2. 657) 0. 029 3 (3. 302) IP R2 (1960 ) - 1. 085 3 3 ( - 2. 238) - 0. 309 ( - 0. 681) - 5. 208 3 ( - 3. 641) - 3. 720 3 ( - 2. 932) lncpp R2 (1960 ) 0. 829 3 (5. 880) 0. 728 3 (5. 632) 1. 077 3 (5. 626) 0. 841 3 (4. 744) lnpop R2 (1960 ) 0. 040 (0. 807) 0. 022 (0. 491) 1. 098 3 (2. 974) 1. 414 3 (4. 321) LnDR t - 1 R2 (1960 ) - 0. 080 ( - 1. 163) - 0. 141 3 3 ( - 2. 096) U P R3 (1961 ) 0. 008 (0. 855) 0. 005 (0. 587) 0. 021 (1. 385) 0. 013 (0. 951) IP R3 (1961 ) - 0. 264 ( - 0. 571) - 0. 176 ( - 0. 420) 1. 208 (0. 718) 0. 517 (0. 341) lncpp R3 (1961 ) 0. 392 3 (2. 765) 0. 363 3 (2. 664) 0. 152 (0. 689) 0. 122 (0. 616) lnpop R3 (1961 ) - 0. 214 3 ( - 4. 126) - 0. 256 3 ( - 5. 455) 2. 854 3 3 3 (1. 792) 3. 181 3 3 (2. 264) LnDR t - 1 R3 (1961 ) - 0. 359 3 ( - 5. 261) - 0. 369 3 ( - 5. 587) U P t - 1 R1 (1959 ) - 0. 026 3 ( - 2. 790) - 0. 057 3 ( - 6. 596) IP t - 1 R1 (1959 ) 1. 489 (0. 888) - 3. 284 3 3 ( - 2. 161) lncpp t - 1 R1 (1959 ) 0. 815 3 (5. 775) 0. 380 3 (2. 960)
506 () 6 ( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) lnpopt - 1 R1 (1959 ) 0. 867 (1. 644) 1. 651 3 (3. 472) U P t - 1 R2 (1960 ) - 0. 025 3 ( - 2. 606) - 0. 026 3 ( - 3. 140) IP t - 1 R2 (1960 ) 3. 717 3 (3. 254) 2. 943 3 (2. 922) lncpp t - 1 R2 (1960 ) - 0. 337 3 3 ( - 2. 132) - 0. 162 ( - 1. 118) lnpopt - 1 R2 (1960 ) - 1. 074 3 ( - 2. 879) - 1. 442 3 ( - 4. 364) U P t - 1 R3 (1961 ) - 0. 019 3 3 3 ( - 1. 706) - 0. 016 33 3 ( - 1. 680) IP t - 1 R3 (1961 ) - 1. 782 ( - 1. 043) - 0. 975 ( - 0. 629) lncpp t - 1 R3 (1961 ) 0. 326 (1. 441) 0. 308 (1. 541) lnpopt - 1 R3 (1961 ) - 3. 074 3 3 3 ( - 1. 931) - 3. 469 3 3 ( - 2. 470) R 2 0. 688 0. 746 0. 733 0. 793 231. 978 352. 731 308. 217 450. 389 0. 359-0. 019 0. 341-0. 015 : t, 3 1 %, 3 3 5 %, 3 33 10 % :, ;, (), (1953 1957 ),, 1953 1957,,,,,,, ;,,,,
2 : 507,,, :, : lndr54 58 lndr59 61 lndr62 77 = 0 + 1 IP54 57 + 2 lnpop54 57 +, (4) = 0 + 1 IP54 57 + 2 lnpop54 57 +, (5) = 0 + 1 IP54 57 + 2 lnpop54 57 +. (6) IP ( ) PO P ( ) 1954 1957, DR54 58 1954 1958, DR62 77 1962 1977,, (4) (6) ; DR59 61 1959 1961, (5),,, (5), DR IP POP, CHOW, 1959 17, 5 (4) (5) (6),, 5 %,,,, ; (1959 1961 ), ; (1962 1977 ),,, F,, R 2 ( PO P), 1954 1957, 17 1961 CHOW,,
508 () 6 5 lndr (1954 1958 ) lndr (1959 1961 ) lndr (1962 1977 ) IP() (1954 1957 ) - 12. 009 3 3 ( - 2. 536) - 50. 386 3 ( - 2. 809) - 5. 829 ( - 0. 272) lnpop ( ) (1954 1957 ) - 0. 071 ( - 1. 260) - 0. 119 3 33 ( - 1. 823) - 0. 129 ( - 1. 333) R 2 0. 147 0. 210-0. 009 F2 5. 582 6. 909 0. 772 P 0. 006 0. 002 0. 467 CHOW F 21. 026 P 0. 000 : t, 3 1 %, 3 3 5 %, 3 33 10 % :,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,
2 : 509,,,,,,, ;,,, 1958,,, 1959,, 1961 1962 1963 1958 (1),,, 1958, 1961,,,,, ( ), 1 1975 () ( %) () ( %) 206 163 194 200 209 218 226 244 200 :,,,1980,109
510 () 6 [ 1 ] Aird, J.,Population Studies and Population Policy in China, Population and Development Re2 view, Vol. 8, No. 2 (J un., 1982), 267 297 [ 2 ] Ashton, B., K. Hill, A. Pizza and R. Zeitz,Famine in China, 1958 1961, Population and De2 velopment review, 1984, 10 (4), 613 645. [ 3 ] Banister, J., China s Changing Pop ulation. Stanford : Stanford University Press, 1987. [ 4 ] Berstein, T.,Stalinism, Famine, and Chinese Peasant s : Grain Procurement During t he Great Leap Forward, Theory and S ociet y, 1984, 13 (3), 339 377. [ 5 ] Chang, G. and J. Wen,Communical Dining and t he Chinese Famine of 1958 1961, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1997, 46 (1), 1 34. [ 6 ] Chen, Chu2yuan., China s Economic Develop ment : Growth and S t ructural Change. Boulder : Westview, 1982. [ 7 ],1959 1961,, 2005 1,14 28 [ 8 ] Coale, A. J.,Population Trends, Population Policy, and Population Studies in China, Popula2 tion and Development Review, 1981, 7 (1), 267 297. [ 9 ],( ) :,1987 [ 10 ],1959 1961,,2005 1, 66 71 [ 11 ],:, 1999 [ 12 ],, 1986 [ 13 ], (1949 1980), 1982 [ 14 ],:,1991 [ 15 ],, 1993 4 5,13 22 [ 16 ],:,1991 [ 17 ] Johnson, D. G.,China s Great Famine : Introductory Remarks., China Economic Review, 1998, 9 (2), 103 109. [ 18 ] Kung, J. and J ustin Yifu Lin,The Causes of China s Great Leap Famine, 1959 1961, Eco2 nomic Develop ment and Cultural Change, 2003, 52 (1), 51 73. [ 19 ] Kung, J., and L. Putterman,China s Collectivization Puzzle : A New Resolution. J ournal of Development S t udies, 1997, 33, 741 763. [ 20 ] Li, W. and D. T. Yang,The Great Leap Forward : Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster, J ournal of Political Econom y, 2005, 113 (4), 840 877. [ 21 ], ::,1994 [ 22 ] Lin, J ustin Yifu.,Collectivization and China s Agricultural Crisis in 959 1961, J ournal of Po2 litical Econom y, 1990, Vol. 98, No. 6, 1228 1252.
2 : 511 [ 23 ] Lin, J ustin Yifu, and D. T. Yang,On t he Causes of China s Agricultural Crisis and the Great Leap Famine, China Economic Review, 1998, 9 (2), 125 140. [ 24 ] Lin, J ustin Yifu and D. T. Yang,Food Availability, Entitlement s and t he Chinese Famine of 1959 1961, Economic J ournal, 2000, 110 (460), 136 158. [ 25 ], ( 1958 1965) :, 1984 [ 26 ] Osmani, S.,The Entitlement Approach to Famine : An Assessment, in K. Basu et al., (eds. ), Choice, Wel f are, and Development : Essays in Honour of A martya Sen. Oxford : Clarendon Press, 1995. [ 27 ] Peng, X. Z.,Demographic Consequences of t he Great Leap Forward in China s Provinces, Pop2 ulation and Develop ment Review, 1987, 13 (4), 639 670. [ 28 ],:,1980 [ 29 ] Sen, Amartya K. Poverty and Famine. Oxford, U. K. : Clarendon Press, 1981. [ 30 ] Walker, K. R., Food Grain Procurement and Consum ption in China. New York : Cambridge Uni2 versity Press, 1984. [ 31 ] Yang, Dali L. Calamity and Ref orm in China : S tate, Rural Society, and Institutional Change since the Great L eap Famine. Stanford : Stanford University Press, 1996. [ 32 ],(1949 1966), :,1988 [ 33 ],,,2003 2,54 64 Cash Crop, Food Entitlement and Chinese Famine : A Test on Sen s Entitlement Theory ZIYIN G FAN L IN GJ IE M EN G ( N anj i ng A g ricult ural U ni versit y) Abstract Using panel data to analyze the different death rates across the provinces in the Chinese Famine during the period 1959 1961, this paper concludes that the hierarchical food entitlement system at that time was the main cause for the finding that rural residents in grain producing areas died of hunger with a much higher rate than rural residents in food deficient Areas or urban resident s. Under this hierarchical system, cash crop areas were more privi2 leged than conventional food deficient areas in acquiring food during the famine years. Assum2
512 () 6 ing away the effect of the communal dining halls, we find food availability decline ( FAD) and Sen s Entitlement both contributed significantly to the increase in the death rate during the famine, but the latter has more explaining power. JEL Classif ication I38, N55, Q18