2003 2 Abstract :This paper is aimed to explain the huge famine from 1959 to 1961. The literature on this topic paid much attention to the trigger mechanism rather than the persistency of the famine. Obviously we should explore why the famine lasted so long and I try to provide an answer by observing the grain distribution system and the behavior of provincial governments. I find that the provincial governments in those heavy2stricken areas behaved confusingly. On one hand, they re2sold large amount of grain to relieve the famine inside the provinces ; on the other hand, they transferred grains outside to help other provinces. What made the situation worse was that the grain resale could be hardly delivered to the victims in time. The lagged relief was due to the planning grain distribution system which reacted slowly to the famine and actually collapsed during the famine period. 1959-1961, 1959, 1958 20 80,1959-1961,,,,, 1984, (Thomas Bernstein) : 20 30 50, : 1959 1961, : ( ) (1959. 4. 13) ; :, 30, (1959. 5. 3) ; : ( ), ( 10930, 134 ), 4 (1959. 4. 28) (, ),1958-1961 1500-3000 (Ashton et al.,1984 ; Banister,1987) 54
50 :, :,,,,, 1959,,,,, 1962 (, 1993 ;, 1999), ( ) (Lin, 1990), 1959 (,1995) (food availability decline,fad) 1958 1959, (,1988) (Chang & Wen,1997 ; Yang,1986), 1958 1959, (,1998), 1959 1958 1958, 1959 ; (Lin & Yang, 2000) (Walker,1984) (Bernstein, 1984 ; Kung & Lin, : :, :,, ; (,1993 :1023) 55
2002) 30 ( Kung & Lin,2002), 1958 1959 1960, 1959 1960, 1959 1960 ( 1) 1960 1 1959-1961 1959, : ( %) = (1960-1959 )Π 1959 14. 86 40. 63 1960 26. 58 35. 58 1961 13. 57 28. 41 2 ( 1959-1960 ) 3 19. 83 68. 67 0. 36 28. 91 1959 100 % = (1960-1959 )Π 1959 100 % ( ), %, 2 2,1959-1960, ( 68. 67), 0. 36 %, (28. 91), 1959 1960 1953, (,1993 ;,1993) ( ) ( ), ( ), 1955 1959 1960,1957 10 11 56
1958, (Becker,1998 ;,1996 ;Bernstein,1984) 1959 (,1999),,, 1959 1960,, (Walker,1984 :46-57), (,1993),,,,,,, (,1988),,, (uban bias) 1958, (,1988 :124-125), 1958 1959 1960 (,1988 :120-121) ;, (,1981) 1960 11 (,1988 :121-122) 1961 (,1988 :121) 57
( ) 1959-1960, 3 3 ( 1959-1960 ) 19. 91 % ( %) 206186 19. 83 68. 67, 19. 91 206. 86-12. 60 324. 55,, (1953-1958 1962-1966 ) (1959-1961 ), 4 4, 4 (p), 0. 02 0. 42 161 0. 21 0. 07 47 ( + 0. 21) ;,, 11 ( 20 ) 5 5 11 1958 1959 1960 1961 ( ) ( ) ( %) ( ) ( %) ( ) ( %) ( ) 1774 12. 36-17. 87 16. 72-33. 5 68. 58-60. 6 8. 11 1212 12. 77-45. 5 18. 14 NA 23. 51 NA 18. 49 1265 12. 69 + 54. 3 14. 10-42. 3 39. 56-316. 7 10. 20 NA 9. 60 NA 14. 49 NA 21. 22 NA 9. 08 878 11. 58 + 35. 1 12. 92-3. 3 29. 26-26. 9 17. 48 493 11. 98 + 20. 9 17. 33-36. 4 29. 20-14. 5 20. 37 696 17. 37-79. 5 19. 22 + 40. 6 47. 78-17. 9 28. 01 538 15. 26-87 20. 28 + 1434. 2 52. 33-46. 9 23. 27 222 21. 62 + 18. 5 17. 96 + 47. 9 26. 26-28. 3 11. 84 377 21. 22 + 6. 1 17. 38-28. 5 41. 32-28. 7 11. 48 348 12. 64 + 75. 9 16. 29 + 33. 3 40. 73-30. 9 11. 68 58
5,, 1959 1960 ( 5 ),, 1959 1961 ( ) 3 13 % 325,,, 6 6 (p) - 0. 001 0. 99 72-0. 142 0. 11 130 0. 106 0. 32 19-0. 77 0. 32 36,, 7 7 11 1958 1959 1960 1961 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) - 721 12. 36-462 16. 72-260 68. 58 37 8. 11 35 12. 77-33 18. 14 372 23. 51 312 18. 49-739 12. 69-402 14. 10 46 39. 56 285 10. 20-222 9. 60 200 14. 49-324 21. 22 108 9. 08-806 11. 58-1133 12. 92-384 29. 26-220 17. 48 157 11. 98 307 17. 33 176 29. 20 87 20. 37-1959 17. 37-2381 19. 22-1390 47. 78-248 28. 01-241 15. 26-348 20. 28-209 52. 33 30 23. 27-23 21. 62-3 17. 96-52 26. 26-128 11. 84-151 21. 22-100 17. 38 67 41. 32 164 11. 48 66 12. 64 66 16. 29 66 40. 73 66 11. 68 7 20 11,, 11 6 ( ) 6, 1960, 1960 26, 59
, (Walker, 1984) 1960 (,1998), (,1996),, (Sen,1984), Walder (1986) (1996),, (ignorance, incapacity, callousness) (Devereux, 1993), 4 1Π3-1Π2 ( 8) 8 11 ( : ) 1959 1960 1961 119-16 49 97-10 38 63 1 15 57 9 17 46 7 NA 45 2 17 82-9 44 59 1 30 26 7 18 83 7 NA 92-12 NA 62 4 NA 118-35 36 86-12 37 70-7 28 93 18 34 68 10 22 58 5 19 122-38 2 107-24 3 82-5 3 132-25 5 95-15 79 59 2 42 83-0. 2 16 66-3 24 62-8 17 75 8 48 51 17 30 36 14 20 136 34 37 107 39 48 54 42 35 28. 8 34. 4 21. 6,, ( Yang, 1986) 60
, 1Π3-1Π2, 9 9 1959-1961 ( : ) 1959 1960 1961 56 49-7 38-18 15-41 24 17-7 NA NA 17-7 26 44 + 18 30 + 4 18-8 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 33 36 + 3 37 + 4 28-5 24 34 + 10 22-2 19-5 10 2-8 3-7 3-7 26 5-21 79 + 53 42 + 16 13 16 + 3 24 + 11 17 + 4 18 48 + 30 30 + 12 20 + 2 11 37 + 26 48 + 37 35 + 24 24. 1 28. 8 13. 3 3 34. 6 16. 4 3 21. 4 11. 9 3 : 3 9 1954-1958 ( ), 10 10,, 10,, 10 1958 1959 : ; ;,, (,1996 :41-42) 5,,, 1959 10, 1960 (Devereux,1993) 61
, 1958 1959 (,1981), (,1988),,,,,, 20 50,, (Walker,1984) : (1),,, ;,, (2),,, 1958 10 (,1993 :162) : ( ) 1958, 1959 (Becker,1996) 62
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