DRAM NAND A Study of DRAM and NAND Flash Memory Development Trend and Opportunities in Taiwan
DRAM NAND A Study of DRAM and NAND Flash Memory Development Trend and Opportunities in Taiwan StudentHsun-Kuei Chan AdvisorDr. Hsiao-Cheng Yu A Thesis Submitted to Institute of Management of Technlogy College of Management National Chiao Tung University in partial Fulfillment of the Requiements for the Degree of Master in Management of Technology June 2007 Hsinchu, Taiwan, Republic of China ii
DRAM NAND iii
iv DRAM NAND
DRAM NAND 1. ( ) v
DRAM NAND DRAM (98.4%) () () () () () DRAM 1980 6 1990 8 8 12 DRAM 12? 12 30 8 3 NAND DRAM DRAM NAND? DRAM NAND SWOT BCG : DRAMNAND vi
A Study of DRAM and NAND Flash Memory Development Trend and Opportunities in Taiwan Student: Hsun-Kuei Chan Advisor: Dr. Hsiao-Cheng Yu Institute of Management of Technology National Chiao Tung University ABSTRACT After evolving for almost 20 years, the global DRAM industry has become an oligopoly. The top five leaders in the world are Samsung (Korea) Qimonda (Germany)Hynix (Korea) Elpida (Japan) and Micron (America). The DRAM manufacturers in Taiwan chose to form strategic alliance with the Top Five. For instance: Nanya and Infineon have started a joint venture company which is called Inotera, ProMos and Hynix have signed strategic alliance, Powerchip and Elpida have started a joint venture called Rexchip. In 1980s, Japan s DRAM makers surpassed American manufacturers such as Intel and became the world's largest DRAM supplier with 6-inch wafer technology. In 1990s, South Korea s DRAM makers replaced Japanese manufacturers and became the world's largest DRAM supplier with 8-inch wafer technology. As the 8 inch fabs going to be superseded by the 12 inch fabs in 2000s, what should be the strategies of Taiwanese DRAM makers? Note that a 12 inch fab. Requires investment of over 3 billion U.S. dollars, which is triple that of an 8 inch fab. No doubt that DRAM industry has high entry and exit barriers. In the other hand, the NAND flash memory has became a serious substituting technology to DRAM. The purpose of this thesis was to gather critical information in assisting Taiwanese DRAM makers making strategic business decisions. The analysis was based on industry analysis models such as Michael Porter s Five Forces model the SWOT analysis model and the BCG Matrix model to analyze the pros and cons of Taiwan s DRAM and NAND flash memory makers. Key Words : DRAMNAND flash memorystrategy vii
viii 2001 96 6 13
.... vi........ vii.......viii... ix... xi... xii...1 1.1...1 1.2...2 1.3...2 1.4...3 1.5...5...6 2.1...6 2.2...13 DRAM...28 3.1...28 3.2...30 3.3...31 3.4...39 3.5...40 3.6...47 NAND...57 4.1...57 4.2...58 ix
4.3...59 4.4...72 4.5...72 4.6...78 DRAM NAND...85 5.1...85 5.2...89 5.3...91...94 6.1...94 6.2...96...98 x
110...25 28 12...51 3...51 4 DRAM SWOT...56 5Vista ReadyDrive ReadyBoost...65 6 Napa Santa Rosa...67 7Samsung Roadmap...68 8Samsung Roadmap...69 9...76 10...76 11DRAM NAND flash...86 12Samsung Hynix DRAM NAND flash...86 13Samsung DRAM NAND flash...87 14Hynix DRAM NAND flash...87 15Micron...88 16...91 17 DRAM BCG...96 xi
1 DRAM...1 2...3 3...4 4BCG...6 5Porter...7 6SWOT...10 7SWOT...10 8SWOT...12 9DRAM...28 10DRAM...29 11DRAM...29 12DRAM...30 13DRAM...30 14DRAM...31 15DRAM...32 16DRAM...32 17DRAM...33 18DRAM...33 19DRAM...34 20PC...34 21 DRAM...35 22DRAM...35 23DRAM ( )...36 24 (Personal Media PlayerPMP)...36 25...37 26...37 xii
27Microsoft...38 28Windows Vista...38 29Notebook...39 30DRAM...40 31DRAM...41 32...41 33DRAM Roadmap...42 34DRAM...42 35DRAM...43 36 DRAM...43 37DRAM...44 38 Megabit...45 39DDR...45 40DRAM NB...46 41...46 42DRAM...47 43DRAM...47 44DRAM...48 45DRAM...48 46DRAM...49 47 8 12...49 48DRAM 8 12...50 49 12...50 50DRAM 12...50 51DRAM...52 52DRAM...53 53DRAM...53 54DRAM...54 xiii
55 DRAM...54 56 DRAM...56 57Toshiba 90nm...58 58NAND...58 59NAND...59 60NAND...59 61DRAM...60 62NAND...61 63NAND...61 64NAND...62 65NAND...62 662000 2010 NAND Flash...63 67NAND Flash...63 68NAND Flash...64 69NAND Flash...64 70NAND Flash PC...65 71NAND Flash PC...66 721.8-inch HDD NAND Flash...67 73 HDD...68 74NAND NOR...70 75Spansion MirrorBit Quad Flash...71 76NAND...72 77NAND roadmap...73 78 NAND...73 79SLC MLC...74 80SLC MLC...74 81OneNAND...75 82...75 xiv
83SD Card...77 84NAND...77 85NAND...78 86NAND...78 87NAND...79 88NAND...79 89NAND...80 90NAND...80 91NAND...81 92 DRAM...81 93 DRAM...82 94 DRAM...84 95 DRAM SWOT...84 96DRAM NAND flash...85 97DRAM NAND flash...86 98DRAM NAND flash...89 99Windows Vista...89 100 NAND flash...90 101NB NAND flash...90 102...91 103...92 104...93 105...93 xv
1.1 2006 DRAM 339 ( 11.4%) 2005 36% Vista 3 CAGR 12.1 (NAND 22.8%) 2009 DRAM 479 2007 600 112.5 2006 1 19% DRAM 69 ( 12% 61% ) DRAM DRAM 1980 6 1990 8 DRAM 12 8 2007 12 DRAM DRAM (98.4%) (Samsung)() (Qimonda)() (Hynix) () (Elpida)() (Micron)() (1) DRAM (Nanya) (Inotera) (Promos) (PSC) (Rexchip) 1 DRAM [1] 1
8 (5,12% ) 12 (7,37% ) 2009 12 DRAM 13 12 DRAM 8 12 DRAM 12? 12 30 8 3 NAND DRAM DRAM NAND? 1.2 DRAM [2][3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9][10] DRAM Flash Memory [11] DRAM NAND DRAM NAND 1.3 2006 2 DRAM NAND DRAM NAND DRAM NAND 2
Semiconductor Disceret IC Optical Microcomponent Memory Logic Anolog Volatile 22% Nonvolatile 52% 5% 1% 42% DRAM DDR2 SDRAM SRAM ROM Flash 65% 35% NAND NOR 2 1.4 (3) DRAM NAND ( NAND Flash) DRAM NAND Porter SWOT DRAM BCG DRAM DRAM (3) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. DRAM NAND 2. 3. 3
4 SWOT BCG 5. 6. DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM NAND Flash NAND Flash NAND Flash NAND Flash NAND Flash NAND Flash DRAM NAND Flash SWOT BCG 3 4
1.5 DRAM NAND SWOT BCG 5
2.1 2.1.1 BCG Boston Consulting Group 1970 BCG / Product Portfolio Matrix (4) 4BCG [12] a. (question marks) b. (stars) c. (cash cow) 10% 6
d. (dogs) 2.1.2 Michael E Porter[13] (5) 5Porter [12] 1. a. b. c. 7
d. e. f. g. h. 2. a. b. c. d. e. f. 3. a. b. c. d. e. 4. / a. b. c. 5. a. b. c. 8
d. e. f. g. h. 6 Intel Andrew Grove Porter Richard A. D'aveni [14] (Hyper competitive) 2.1.3 SWOT SWOT Bose-man.Phatak Schellenberge 1986 (Strengths) (Weaknesses ) (Opportunities) (Threats) (6 7) 9
6SWOT [15] 7SWOT [15] SWOT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10
9. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. SWOT USED USED USED How can we Use each Strength? How can we Stop each Weakness? How can we Exploit each Opportunity? How can we Defend against each Threat? SWOT SWOT Weihrich[16]1982 matrix (8) SWOT matching SO Maxi-Maxi WO Mini-Maxi ST Maxi-Mini WT Mini-Mini 11
8SWOT [12] 1. SO:Maxi-Maxi 2. ST:Maxi-Mini 3. WO:Mini-Maxi 4. WT:Mini-Mini 12
2.2 DRAM -- (1996) DRAM 1. DRAM 2. DRAM DRAM 3. PC DRAM 4. DRAM 5. 6.IC IC 7. DRAM 1. IC 2. -- (1998) - 13
Porter 1. 2. 3. 4. - DRAM 21 5. Venture Capital 6. 7. IDM Foundry DRAM 3C DRAM 8. DRAM (KSF) 1. 2. 3. 14
15 4. 5. 6. 7. IC 8. 1. 2. 21 3C 1. DRAM DRAM (1). DRAM (2). 2. IC 3. 4.
(2000) DRAM 1. DRAM DRAM 2. DRA DRA 3. DRAM Porter(1980) DRAM Porter(1990) DRAM ( / / ) DRAM DRAM 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. DRAM 1. 2. 3. (1) (2) 16
1. DRAM 2. 3. 4. DRAM Flash Memory (2002) DRAM Flash Memory DRAM DRAM Flash Memory DRAMFlash Flash Memory 1.Flash Memory DRAM : (1) IC (2) (3)DRAM 2.Flash Memory DRAM : (1)DRAM (2)DRAM BB ratio (3)DRAM 3. Flash Memory 4. Flash Memory DRAM (1) Flash Memory (2) (3) Flash 17
DRAM (2004) DARM DRAM SIA DRAM 2002 1998 7 50% 1999 50% ; 2000 70% 2001 DRAM 8.9 1.69 81% DRAM 2002 DRAM DRAM?? DRAM (Porter ) DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. DRAM 7 : 1. 2. 3. DRAM ( ) 18
4. DRAM (OEM -- DRAM (2004) DRAM 1. 2. 3. DRAM 1. DRAM DRAM ( LCD IC) 2.12 3. 4. DRAM (DDRII) : 1. (IDM) 2. 3.PC OEM 4. 5. 19
1. 2. DRAM 3. 4. 5. 6. DRAM 7. DRAM DRAM ( ) ( ) 8. DRAM DRAM ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( DRAM ) ( ) (90 ) : 1. 2. (Porter1980) 20
(2006) Porter M.E 1.DRAM 2.DRAM (1) : (2) DRAM : PC 3. PC DRAM 21
DRAM NAND flash 4. DRAM DRAM DRAM -- DRAM (2004) DRAM 1 2 3 22
DRAM (2005) DRAM 8 DRAM 4 (2000~2003) 911 SARS DRAM 2003 12 DRAM 12 2003 DRAM 12 DRAM DRAM DRAM 12 DRAM 8 (2005) DRAM 12 DRAM MicronHynixInfineon 12 2 12 DRAM 12 (2005) DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM (2006) DRAM DRAM DRAM Hynix Elpida DRAM 23
DRAM DRAM DRAM 12 DRAM 2006 20%2006 DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM SWOT DRAM DRAM DRAM 24
10 : 110 25
10 : ( ) 1. () 2. () 3. () 4. () 5. 6. 7. 12 8. 8 DRAM ( ) 1. () 2. 3C () 3. Venture Capital () 4. 5. 6. 7. DRAM 8. DRAM 9. 12 () 10. 11. 2010 () 1. () 2. () 3. () 4. () 5. 26
6. 7. 8. 1. DRAM () 2. 3. 4. DRAM 5. DRAM 6. DRAM 27
3.1 DRAM DRAM (9) 9DRAM [1] DRAM Dynamic Random Access MemoryDRAM bit 1 0 SRAM SRAM DRAM (10 11) SRAM DRAM DRAM RAM DRAM volatile memory 28
DRAM ( ) DRAM DRAM 10DRAM 11DRAM [17] 29
3.2 2006 DRAM 339 ( 11.4%)(12) Vista DRAMeXchange 3 (Compound Annual Growth RateCAGR) 12.1(13) NAND 22.8% Semiconductor Disceret IC Optical Microcomponent Memory Logic Anolog Volatile 22% Nonvolatile 52% 5% 1% 42% DRAM DDR2 SDRAM SRAM ROM Flash 65% 35% NAND NOR 12DRAM 60,000 Total DRAM Revenue 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F DRAM Revenue ($millions) Unit Shipment( millions 512Mb) 13DRAM [1] 30
3.3 1971 (Intel) 1KB MOSDRAM 3 4 197l DRAM 2007 12 90nm 512MB DDR2 1980 6 1990 8 2000 DRAM (98.4%)( 14) 2006 () () () () 2006 17% 14DRAM [1] 3.3.1 DRAM DRAM (15) DRAM (Integrated Device ManufacturerIDM) (foundry) IC (fabless) DRAM 31
(16) 15DRAM [1] 16DRAM [1] 32
DRAM ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 17DRAM 3.3.2 DRAM 1. DRAM 2. 3. 18DRAM 33
3.3.3 (19) DRAM 70% (Personal ComputerPC) 19DRAM [18] (CPU) (Windows) PC : PC 18 (1999 ) 1 6 (2005 ) 2 Intel 4 (2009 ) 3 PC DRAM (20) Pentium 3 Pentium II Pentium 4 1993 Pentium Windows 2000 20PC [19] 34
DRAM DDR2 2006 Q2 50% (21) 21 DRAM [19] DRAM (22 25) 1.Windows Vista Media Center 3D 2. (WiiPS3Xbox360) DRAM 3. (Microsoft) (Apple) (Sony) 22DRAM [19] 35
23DRAM ( ) [1] 24 (Personal Media Player ; PMP) [1] 36
25 [1] GDDR (2006 DRAM5%)(26) (Sony PS3) 3 Wii128MB GDDRPS3256MB GDDRXbox360512MB GDDR3 26 [1] 37
2007 1 64 Windows Vista(27) 2007 2008 1. Vista 2007 Vista 2. 2008 27Microsoft [21] Windows Vista (28) IT Windows Mail Photo Gallery Media PlayerMovie MakerMedia Center 28Windows Vista [21] 38
Windows Vista & Intel NB Santa Rosa 1. DRAM ( 512MB) 2. NAND flash ( 128MB) (29) 3.4 29Notebook [22] DRAM 1. 2. 3. DRAM 1. IDM IDM 2. IDM ( ) ( ) 39
3. ( NECHitachiMitsubishi DRAM ) IDM ( ) ( ) 4. IDM NAND flash 8 (CMOS image sensor) DRAM 5. 1990 (PSC) (Nanya) (Promos) (Winbond) 6. (SMIC)2000 ( ) 3.5 3.5.1 DRAM : (NAND FlashDRAM ) 30DRAM [1] 40
3.5.2 DRAM : (NAND Flash DRAM ) 31DRAM [1] 3.5.3 DRAM 1980 (32) 32 [23] 41
3.5.4 DRAM (Roadmap) DRAM 90nm 512M DDR2 (33)8 90nm90nm 8 12 2007 Q1 90nm 80%(34 35) 33DRAM Roadmap [1] 34DRAM [1] 42
35DRAM [1] DRAM 1990 15 ( )(36)10 ( ) 36 DRAM [20] 43
DRAM 37DRAM 1964 Gordon Moore Intel 12 1975 18 Moore's Law 10 Ovonyx PRAM - (phase-change memory)(pram PCM OUM) (38) 44
38 Megabit : [31] 3.5.5 PC DRAM PC 2006 DDR2 DRAM DDR3 ( 39) DDR2 PC PC (2006 DDR2 NB 6~12%)(40) DDR2 CPU DRAM (average selling priceasp) PC DRAM 39DDR : [19] 45
40DRAM NB [1] (41) DRAM PC 1 41 [19] 46
3.5.6 DRAM 42DRAM 3.6 3.6.1 2005 12 Intel DDR2 2006 90nm 2006 NAND flash DRAM (43) DRAM 43DRAM [1] 47
3.6.2 2006 DRAM : 44DRAM [1] DRAM (98.4%) (45) Samsung()Qimonda()Hynix ()Elpida()Micron() 45DRAM [1] 48
3.6.3 2006 DRAM 8 6 ( 39 15%)total wafers=1,174k ( 10,130k 12%)(46) 2006 DRAM 12 7 ( 17 41%)total wafers=1,964k ( 5,331k 37%) 8 + 12 = 5.3% + 20% = 25.3% 46DRAM [18] 2007 Q2 DRAM 8 8 Micron Hynix(47 48) DRAM 47 8 12 [18] 49
48DRAM 8 12 [18] 12 (49 50) IDM DRAM 12 49 12 [24] 50DRAM 12 [24] 50
1. 3 (CAGR)12.1 2. 8 12 3. 70nm 30% 2008 12 277 / 2009 12 364 / (2) 28 12 (3) 2008 (7%)2009 (4%) 3 3.6.4 8 1. (9 8 ) ( LCD IC) (13 8 )CMOS (8 8 )CMOS (2 8 ) (1 8 ) LCD IC CMOS 51
2. (Infineon)(2 8 ) Qimonda (1 8 ) ( ) (LCD ICCMOS ) 3. (1 8 ) 4. 12 (1 8 ) (1 8 ) 3.6.5 2006 (51)! 51DRAM [1] 52
DRAM (52) ( 33%) 9% 12" 90nm Cost Structure of DDR2 512Mb package cost 9% materials cost 12% testing cost 9% Labour 2% Depreciation 33% manfacture cost 35% 52DRAM [1] 8 Samsung 8 (53) DRAM 1996 Samsung 25%1997 31%2007 2008 1995 1996 8 12 DRAM Qimonda Elpida Hynix 12 DRAM 12 53DRAM [25] 53
2006/2007 (54) 54DRAM [1] 3.6.6 DRAM (55): 1.12 (70nm) 2.Vista 2008 3. NAND flash 55 DRAM [19] 54
55 3.6.7 DRAM (56) 1. 2. 3.? ( ) 4. 5. (98.4%) 6. ( ) (PCM)?? ( ) (PCM)?? ( )
56 56 DRAM 3.6.8 DRAM SWOT ( ) 4 DRAM SWOT (PCM) (PCM)
NAND 4.1 : NOR(core flash)nand(data flash) 1.NOR 1988 Intel NOR BIOS 2.NAND (Toshiba)1989 (57) (Memory Cell) Megabyte NOR NOR NAND NOR NAND NOR / NAND (Single Level CellSLC) (Multi Level CellMLC)SLC MLC NAND ( ) NAND NAND 57
57Toshiba 90nm 4.2 2006 NAND 169 ( 6.4%) (58) DRAMeXchange 3 (CAGR) 22.8% Semiconductor Disceret IC Optical Microcomponent Memory Logic Anolog Volatile 22% Nonvolatile 52% 5% 1% 42% DRAM DDR2 SDRAM SRAM ROM Flash 65% 35% NAND NOR 58NAND 2006 NAND (59): 1. 58
2. 100 NB 512MB Flash PC 59NAND [26] 4.3 NAND Toshiba 1989 1999 Samsung Samsung 2001 Toshiba DRAM NAND Samsung()Toshiba()Hynix () (95%)(60) Hynix/STM 21% 2006 NAND flash Renesas 3% IM flash 1% Others 1% Samsung 43% Toshiba/SanDisk 31% 60NAND [1] 59
4.3.1 NAND NAND (61) NAND DRAM ( ) (2) IMFT SanDisk Qimonda Renesas PSC (1) 61DRAM [1] 2006 Micron 6.88 Lexar Media SanDisk 13.5 msystems 4 (4-bit-per-cell) NAND (62) 60
62NAND [1] NAND ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 63NAND 61
4.3.2 NAND 2. 1. 3. NAND flash 64NAND 4.3.3 2005 :Apple ipod NAND 1.8 NAND 2006 (HynixMicron) 50%60%(65) 65NAND [26] 62
NAND Flash 2002 DSC Phone2003 USB PDA 2004 Camcorder2005 MP3 player 2006 GPS (DSC 4420MB/unitMP3 player 2413MB/unitUSD1123MB/unitMobile phone379mb/unit)(66) 662000 2010 NAND Flash [27] SamsungToshiba 50% (1GB price)(67) DSCDigital Still CameraD VCD igital Video CamcorderU SB DriveUSB Flash Drive Mobile PhoneS mart PhoneS mart Handhelds Handheld Devices 67NAND Flash [26] 63
2003 NAND 59%(68)2005 MP3(iPod) ( iphone) 68NAND Flash [26] 1. ( ) Retail Card NAND 56MB 1GB (69) MB/unit 69NAND Flash [26] 64
2. (PC) PC Windows Vista NAND PC 2007 6.7% (70) 4 3420 ( 400 ) Vista ReadyDrive ReadyBoost 70NAND FlashPC [26] ReadyDrive (Hybrid-HDD)ReadyBoost (enabled by UFDs/Flash cards) Intel s Robson TechnologyHybrid-HDDSolid state disks(ssd) PC (5) 5Vista ReadyDrive ReadyBoost [28] 65
2007 NAND PC NAND Hard Disk Drive (71) 71NAND Flash PC [28] MB NAND 2.5 NAND 1.8 (Micro Drive) Micro driver 2009 3 (72)AppleDellHP Sony 2007 NAND (NotebookNB) 66
(1)Intel Robson 721.8-inch HDD NAND Flash [26] NAND Cache PCI Express SATA NB Santa Rosa Napa (6) 2007 6 Napa Santa Rosa [29] 67
(2)Hybrid HDD NAND Cache (73)2006 8 Flash Memory Summit Microsoft HDD Windows Vista PC 128MB NAND 256MB 512MB NAND Flash 1GB PC 73 HDD [29] (3)SSD( ) Cache HDD: Samsung 2006 9 40 Samsung Charge Trap Flash (CTF) ( 155 )32Gbit NAND Flash 64 GB 20 256 GB NAND 2008 1.8 (7) 7Samsung Roadmap [30] 68
CTF Spansion MirrorBit Nor -- K TANOS (k ) Spansion MirrorBit Nor 20% 28%(8) 8Samsung Roadmap MirrorBit Quad CTF 1989, 2006 Spansion 2006 / ( ) ( 1/5) : - - 1/5 : (TaN) : - - 1/10 : ) - [31] (4)NOR NAND NOR Flash 2005 NAND Flash NOR Flash(74) 69
(5)NOR 74NAND NOR [26] NOR Spansion 2007 4 NOR 4 / MirrorBit Quad 4 / 256Mb 2Gb 2~3MB/s10,000 NAND NAND NAND Spansion ( 40% )effective cell size NAND 30% 2 / Strata Flash Spansion MirrorBit Quad Flash 16 4 / (75) 70
MirrorBit (ASSP) 75Spansion MirrorBit Quad Flash [31] Spansion 40 MLC MirrorBit Quad NAND NOR MirrorBit Quad NAND 30% 6 5 MLC MLC 32 71
4.4 NAND 1. 2. 3. NAND 1.SamsungIDM HynixIDM (STSanDisk) 2.ToshibaIDM (SanDisk) 3.MicronIDM (Intel) 4. (Renesas ) 4.5 NAND DRAM (76 77) 76NAND [1] 72
77NAND roadmap [32] 4.5.1 Toshiba (MLC) Samsung 1Gb2Gb (78) 78 NAND [32] 73
SLC 10 MLC 1 (79) 79SLC MLC [1] MLC (80) Toshiba/SanDisk 95% Samsung 50%70% Hynix/ST 50% Intel/Micron NAND Flash SLC 80SLC MLC [28] 74
OneNAND (81) NOR NAND NAND OneNAND NOR 4.5.2 81OneNAND [31] SanDisk SAMSUNG SONY(82) 82 [1] 75
9 [1] 2006 micro SD (83) MMC Samsung 6% SD SD card (9 10) 10 [35] 76
83SD Card [1] 4.5.3 NAND 84NAND 77
4.6 4.6.1 NAND 2006 2007 (85 87) 85NAND [28] 86NAND [28] 78
87NAND [32] 4.6.2 Samsung()Toshiba()Hynix () (95%)(88)Intel 2005 11 Micron IM Flash Technology(IMFT) 2006 ONFI (Open NAND Flash Interface) NAND SamsungToshiba Hynix IMFT 4 88NAND [28] 79
4.6.3 2007 NAND (bit growth)2006 (89)Samsung 2007 Toshiba 12 (Fab4) 2007 Hynix 12 80nm DRAM NAND (90) 89NAND [28] 90NAND [32] 80
4.6.4 2006 ASP 50~60% NAND 20% (91) 4.6.5 91NAND [28] DRAM Samsung Toshiba (ASP down 50%/Y) ( Renesas )(92) Renesas20071 Vantel ( ) (SiP) 92 DRAM [34] 81
(Renesas Technology Corp.) 2003 4 1 500 ( 55% 45%) NAND ( IC )(93) 93 DRAM [34] 82
4.6.6 NAND (94) 1. Intel Micron IMFT Renesas 2. 3.? 4. Spansion MirrorBit Quad Nor flash 5. (95%) 6. DRAM NAND DRAM IMFT ( )? (95%) NOR flash 83
84 94 DRAM 4.6.7 DRAM SWOT (95) 95 DRAM SWOT NAND Flash
DRAM NAND 5.1 5.1.1 (96) DRAM(98.4%)SamsungQimondaHynixElpidaMicron NAND flash (95%)SamsungToshibaHynix DRAM NAND Samsung Hynix DRAM 45.3%NAND 64% 2006NAND flash Hynix/STM 21% Renesas 3% IM 1% Others 1% Samsung 43% Toshiba/SanDisk 31% 96DRAM NAND flash [1] STM STMicroelectronics( ) 85
5.1.2 Samsung(14%)Hynix(8%)2006 Q4 8 NAND 70nm DRAM NAND 10% (97) DRAM (Micron)(4%)CMOS ( 40 ) 8 DRAM 2007 Q2 DRAM ASP 60% 97DRAM NAND flash 2006 NAND DRAM 58%50% (11) 11DRAM NAND flash Samsung HynixNAND 404( /) DRAM 22% (12) 12Samsung Hynix DRAM NAND flash 86
1. Samsung 8 250( /) DRAM 14%(13) DRAM NAND Flash 13Samsung DRAM NAND flash 2. Hynix 8 154( /) DRAM 8%(14) 14Hynix DRAM NAND flash 87
3. Micron 8 78( /) DRAM 4%(15) 15Micron 4. Toshiba (2006 160 /) Fab1(0.11um90nm70nm8 NAND Flash) Fab2(0.11um90nm70nm8 NAND Flash) Fab3(90µm70µm12 NAND Flash) Toshiba / SanDisk 12 (Flash Alliance) 50.1%49.9% 2006 8 2007 7,500 10 5. IMFT (2006 50 /) Fab18 (90nm) Fab212 (70nm) Fab32007 12 NAND 2007 70 2008 DRAM 8 DRAM ASP(average sale price) 8 2007 NAND Flash 88
5.2 (98) DRAMPC(Desk&NB)HandsetsServer & WorkstationGraphic buffer NAND DSCMP3Cell phoneusb 2006 DRAM Digital TV Game 2.0% 1.7% Other Graphic buffer 9.5% 4.3% 2006NAND Flash Consoles PMPNavigation PC 2.0% Other 1.0% USB 4.0% DSC 14.0% 35.0% Server & Workstation 4.5% Handsets 6.4% PC(Desk&NB) 71.6% Cell phone 18.0% 98DRAM NAND flash [1] MP3 26.0% DRAM NAND ( ) DRAM 72% PC NAND 1.DRAMWindows Vista (1GB->2GB) (99) 99Windows Vista [1] 89
2.NAND (100MB->3.3GB)(100)NB (2.3%->29.5%)(101) 100 NAND flash [26] 101NB NAND flash [26] 90
5.3 DRAM NAND 10 (PCM) (MRAM) (FeRAM)(16) DRAM( )SRAM( ) ( ) 102 [31] PCM (102) CMOS FlashSRAMDRAM 16 [31] 91
5.3.1 (FeRAM) 100nsFeRAM 10 16 FeRAM CMOS SoC EEPROM SRAM FeRAM MRAM 5.3.2 (MRAM) MRAM 1972 1992 Honeywell (103) GMR TMR MRAM 10 12 (DRAM9 8 ) 50ns (DRAM10ns 10ms) MRAM MRAM 103 [31] 5.3.3 PCM 1968 10ns 10 14 (104) Ovonyx ELPIDA IBM Macronix 92
104 [31] PCM Ovonyx 1999 PCM (Intellectual PropertyIP) PCM Ovonyx PCM Ovonyx ( 105) 105 [33] 93
DRAM NAND SWOT BCG 6.1 1. DRAM NAND NAND DRAM 2. PCM( ) DRAM( )NAND ( ) SRAM( ) (IC22% ) 3. DRAM ( ) ( )10 DRAM IDM (12 ) NAND IDM ( ) ( 4. (Demand) DRAM NAND ( ) Windows Vista NAND 94
22.8% 3 (CAGR) 12.1 5. (Supply) DRAM NAND IDM DRAMNAND flashpcm DRAM ( ) NAND (IMFT ) ( NOR Flash Spansion MirrorBit Quad) DRAM NAND 12? 2008 (7%)2009 (4%) 6. DRAM NAND 70nm 12 12 (30 ) (>10 ) 95
6.2 BCG (17) DRAM NAND DRAM NAND GDDRDDR3 17 DRAM BCG S2 S1 S3 S4 1 (S1) : DRAM DRAM NAND (commodity) ( ) ( )! 12 (DRAM) (NAND GDDRDDR3 ) ( ) ( 96
) 2 (S2) : NAND DRAM ( ) NAND! NAND 12 ( ) 3 (S3) : (commodity) (GDDRDDR3 ) (90nm) 4 (S4) : 8 8 8 8 3( ) 8 (LCD ICCMOS ) 12 12 (90nm) 5 (S5) : ( )? (GE) ( ) (Six Sigma) 97
[1].DRAMeXchange (http://www.dramexchange.com). [2]. -- 87 [3]. 89 [4]. -- 85 [5]. DRAM 94 [6]. DRAM 93 [7]. -- DRAM 93 [8]. 95 [9]. -- DRAM 93 [10]. DRAM 95 [11]. DRAM Flash Memory 91 [12]. (http://www.ibc.itri.org.tw/content/menu-sql.asp?pid=50) [13].Michael E Porter, Competitive Advantage, New York : The Free Press, 1985. 98
[14]. Richard A. D'aveni, Hypercompetition, New York : The Free Press, 1994. [15]. (http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=swot_%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90&varian t=zh-tw) [16].Weihrich Heinz, The SWOT Matrix-A Tool for Situational Analysis, Long Range Planning, Vol.15 No.2, pp. 54-66, 1982. [17]. (http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=dram&variant=zh-tw) [18]. DRAM 95 10 [19]. DRAM Vista 95 12 [20]. 2007 DRAM 95 10 [21]. 64 --Vista 2007 95 8 [22]. 2007 NB -Vista Santa Rosa NB 95 12 [23]. IEK-ITIS92 8 [24]. DRAM 12 DRAM IEK-ITIS96 1 [25]. 2007 IC IEK-ITIS96 1 [26]. NAND Flash 95 5 [27]. NAND Flash 96 2 [28]. NAND Flash 2007 96 3 99
[29]. NAND Flash USB Driver PC 95 9 [30]. NAND Flash PC 95 11 [31]. (http://www.eettaiwan.com) [32]. NAND Flash 95 8 [33]. IEK-ITIS95 3 [34]. NAND Flash 96 2 [35]. (http//www.topology.com.tw) 100