2010 03 24 002387.SZ 22.64-26.30, A() 33.50 () 100.00 4757.02 300 3275.57 5967.88 4833 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E () 0.369 0.563 0.673 0.658 1.014 1.335 210.51% 52.68% 19.39% 30.65% 54.11% 31.65% () 46.80 11.16 35.08 35.08 35.08 35.08 () 45.72 15.55 29.70 29.70 29.70 29.70 N/A N/A 0.00% 0.23% 0.36% 0.46% 23.35% 26.28% 23.88% 7.54% 10.58% 12.39% () 1.58 2.14 2.82 8.73 9.58 10.78 () N/A N/A 10.65 3.44 3.13 2.78 () 0.96 1.00 1.46 0.82 1.90 2.36 () 100.00 100.00 100.00 133.50 133.50 133.50 4333 3833 3333 2833 090324 090618 : (8621)61038215 cheng@gjzq.com.cn 090908 091207 100305 300 969 15A 200011 此 文 档 仅 供 国 信 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 使 用 1
1 2 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 06 2
3 42009 5 6 3
7 63% 8% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3.2% 3% 2.8% 2% 1% 100% 100% 100% 100% 8 IPO 6,300 63.00% 6,300 47.19% 400 4.00% 400 3.00% 400 4.00% 400 3.00% 400 4.00% 400 3.00% 2,500 25.00% 2,500 18.73% 3,350 25.09% 4
9 5
10 30 25 25% 20% 20 15 10 15% 10% 5 5% 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0% 6
11 12 13 2007 2008 2009 7,032 10,030 43% 11,821 18% 9,677 12,518 29% 16,685 33% 2,678 5,763 115% 6,277 9% 4,226 6,915 64% 8,448 22% 4,974 6,663 34% 6,738 1% 4,081 6,443 58% 6,785 5% 1,542 1,867 21% 1,868 0% 34,211 50,199 47% 58,621 17% 7
1409 15 12% 12% 20% 14% 11% 3% 28% 16 8
9 17
18 19 10
20 5 21 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 11
+ 22, 232009 12
15% 2011 111.87 24 2006 3 10 13
5000 2010 1.39 20112012 2.834.67 25 26 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 1.5 35,992.85 28,495.90 27 1.5 12,996.60 12,496.60 14,996.95 8,000.00 2,999.80 2,999.80 4,999.50 4,999.50 35,992.85 28,495.90 14
28 1.5 70% 100% 6,660 29 09 10 10 11 11 15080 2520 17600 6120 23720 3528 3528 12096 15624 20010 20010 20010 35090 41138 59354 19805 19795 39600 19800 59400 8100 8100 4662 12762 2475 2475 2475 10-12 8.23% 25.60% 9.62% 5.00%3.00% 2.00% 15
10-12 1.14%46.07% 7.69% 0.04%3.25% 3.00% 10-12 134.35% 90.65% 60.00% 30 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 10,059.98 11,281.60 10,763.00 11,301.15 11,640.18 11,872.99 6.07% 12.14% -4.60% 5.00% 3.00% 2.00% 22,569.51 34,015.00 38,251.90 41,400.00 52,000.00 57,000.00 166.01% 50.71% 12.46% 8.23% 25.60% 9.62% 227.05 383.74 411.71 467.87 605.29 676.76 182.17% 69.01% 7.29% 13.64% 29.37% 11.81% 29.45% 32.08% 32.82% 33.00% 33.30% 33.40% 160.18 260.64 276.58 313.47 403.73 450.72 178.77% 62.71% 13.81% 13.34% 28.79% 11.64% 66.87 123.10 135.12 154.40 201.56 226.04 190.66% 84.11% 9.76% 14.26% 30.55% 12.14% 66.78% 76.72% 74.02% 64.09% 57.20% 50.57% 66.63% 77.46% 75.54% 63.89% 55.23% 47.81% 10,263.53 11,084.79 10,282.00 10,286.10 10,619.98 10,938.58-1.33% 8.00% -11.17% 0.04% 3.25% 3.00% 7,259.40 7,053.34 8,800.00 8,900.00 13,000.00 14,000.00 139.35% -2.84% 31.40% 1.14% 46.07% 7.69% 74.51 78.18 90.48 91.55 138.06 160.35 136.17% 4.94% 16.73% 1.18% 50.81% 16.15% 29.54% 31.20% 31.09% 31.80% 32.35% 32.35% 52.50 53.79 63.19 62.43 93.40 108.48 129.62% 2.46% 17.48% -1.20% 49.59% 16.15% 22.01 24.39 28.07 29.11 44.66 51.87 153.41% 10.83% 15.08% 3.70% 53.42% 16.15% 21.91% 15.63% 15.51% 12.54% 13.05% 11.98% 21.93% 15.35% 15.26% 12.05% 12.24% 10.97% 11,277.58 12,320.58 11,949.00 12,546.45 12,922.84 13,181.30 4.18% 9.25% -9.20% 5.00% 3.00% 2.00% 3,407.74 3,107.63 2,254.70 2,475.00 2,475.00 2,632.00 18.63% -8.81% -21.72% 9.77% 0.00% 6.34% 38.43 38.29 26.94 31.62 31.98 34.69 23.59% -0.37% -28.92% 17.35% 1.16% 8.47% 29.85% 29.86% 29.78% 30.00% 30.56% 30.56% 26.96 26.86 18.92 22.13 22.21 24.09 21.47% -0.39% -29.55% 16.99% 0.35% 8.47% 11.47 11.43 8.32 9.49 9.77 10.60 28.91% -0.34% -27.26% 14.05% 3.05% 8.47% 11.30% 7.65% 4.62% 4.33% 3.02% 2.59% 11.43% 7.19% 4.52% 3.93% 2.68% 2.24% 5,108.00 5,300.00 5,659.00 5,831.95 N/A 3.76% 6.77% 3.06% 11,191.10 26,226.00 50,000.00 80,000.00 N/A 134.35% 90.65% 60.00% 57.16 139.00 282.95 466.56 N/A 143.16% 103.56% 64.89% 33.19% 35.00% 38.50% 39.50% 38.19 90.35 174.01 282.27 N/A 136.57% 92.60% 62.21% 8.60 48.65 108.94 184.29 N/A 465.53% 123.92% 69.17% 5.85% 19.04% 26.74% 34.86% 4.68% 20.13% 29.85% 38.98% 339.99 500.22 586.29 730.03 1058.28 1338.36 239.64 341.28 396.88 488.39 693.35 865.56 100.35 158.93 189.41 241.64 364.93 472.80 29.51% 31.77% 32.31% 33.10% 34.48% 35.33% 16
31 FCF APV 26.30 FCFE 22.62 DDM 0.80 WACC 22.64 AE 4.83 IIWACC 22.64 TV 4.0% WACC 11.25% 2,389.12 125.00 0.00 2,264.12 0.00 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E TV FCF -410.32-73.71 155.92 193.37 217.17 248.95 284.90 308.95 335.63 363.86 5,221.52 6,846.24 PV(FCF) -368.83-59.56 113.25 126.25 127.46 131.33 135.11 131.70 128.60 125.33 1,798.49 2,389.12 32 EPS PE 2010-1-25 2008 2009E 2010E 2008 2009 2010 31.90 0.39 0.75 0.99 82.86 42.53 32.22 9.64-0.27 0.15 0.20-35.70 64.27 48.20 30.03-2.30 0.76 1.02-13.06 39.51 29.44 24.93 0.87 0.47 0.65 28.66 53.04 38.35 55.76 49.84 37.05 wind WACCAPV 22.64-26.30 2010 37.05 10% 21.94-26.81 22.64-26.30 17
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 342 502 586 730 1,058 1,338 75 116 208 800 900 950 46.7% 16.8% 24.5% 45.0% 26.5% 16 7 7 10 15 19-242 -343-396 -488-693 -866 66 59 49 67 95 119 % 70.6% 68.3% 67.6% 66.9% 65.5% 64.7% 47 21 22 26 37 45 100 159 190 242 365 473 203 203 287 904 1,047 1,133 % 29.4% 31.7% 32.4% 33.1% 34.5% 35.3% % 57.4% 43.4% 50.8% 55.3% 52.4% 53.6% -3-4 -4-5 -8-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 % 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 117 193 192 648 872 907-39 -62-74 -94-137 -174 % 32.9% 41.2% 34.1% 39.7% 43.7% 42.9% % 11.3% 12.3% 12.6% 12.8% 12.9% 13.0% 33 70 83 79 75 73-9 -20-21 -27-40 -51 151 265 278 729 950 982 % 2.7% 4.1% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% % 42.6% 56.6% 49.2% 44.7% 47.6% 46.4% EBIT 50 73 91 115 181 238 354 468 564 1,633 1,996 2,114 % 14.6% 14.6% 15.5% 15.8% 17.1% 17.8% 66 135 50 261 451 359-2 -7-7 -1-3 -4 108 102 133 110 158 198 % 0.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 22 9 13 22 33 42 1 0 0 0 0 0 196 246 196 393 642 599 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 75 75 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 11 0 0 0 % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 196 254 283 468 717 675 49 67 84 114 178 235 158 214 282 1,165 1,280 1,439 14.3% 13.3% 14.3% 15.6% 16.8% 17.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 4 2 3 3 354 468 564 1,633 1,996 2,114 50 73 88 117 181 238 14.6% 14.5% 15.0% 16.0% 17.1% 17.8% -11-17 -21-29 -45-59 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 22.4% 22.9% 23.4% 24.6% 25.0% 25.0% 39 56 67 88 135 178 0.369 0.563 0.504 0.658 1.014 1.335 2 0 0 0 0 0 1.580 2.143 2.816 8.730 9.585 10.781 37 56 67 88 135 178 0.964 1.003 1.456 0.815 1.903 2.362 10.8% 11.2% 11.5% 12.0% 12.8% 13.3% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.070 0.108 0.139 23.35% 26.28% 23.88% 7.54% 10.58% 12.39% 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 10.43% 12.03% 11.92% 5.38% 6.78% 8.43% 37 56 67 88 135 178 17.35% 16.20% 17.16% 5.79% 7.50% 9.54% 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 17 59 90 108 139.04% 46.73% 16.78% 24.53% 44.96% 26.47% 0 0 0 11 18 20 EBIT 231.73% 46.46% 24.17% 26.59% 56.55% 31.98% 51 32 61-48 10 9 210.51% 52.68% 19.39% 30.65% 54.11% 31.65% 96 100 146 109 254 315 48.60% 32.29% 20.54% 189.48% 22.20% 5.92% -52-113 -35-509 -308-137 -36 0 0 0 0 0 21.3 7.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 0 4 0 0 0 0 91.6 66.4 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0-88 -109-35 -509-308 -137 45.2 38.4 29.4 30.0 30.0 30.0 40 0 0 805-7 0 120.2 138.1 119.4 223.6 196.7 151.4 0 0 0 200 190-91 14 49-18 -12-30 -37-5.64% 9.06% -29.58% -39.79% -29.21% -35.77% 54 49-18 994 153-128 EBIT 24.4 10.4 12.8 110.2 60.2 66.1 63 41 93 592 100 50 55.35% 54.21% 50.10% 28.65% 35.90% 31.92% 18
612 19