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28 9 4 6276.SH ()34.79 ()45. A() 354.9 () 17,996.38 () 49.99/32.27 3 2245.96 2276.67 45.99 4.99 35.99 3.99 25.99 2.99 15.99 794 7113 8229 (8621)6138219 lijingl@gjzq.com.cn (8621)6138285 yanxf@gjzq.com.cn (8621)6138218 huangting@gjzq.com.cn 25 8526 8815 (8621)6138257 zhaoli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 211 3 2 15 1 5 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E ().314.399.798.892 1.23 1.73 32.3% 27.39% 99.82% 11.79% 37.86% 38.44% EPS () N/A N/A N/A.898 1.218 1.634 () 23.19 51.77 59.55 43.22 31.35 22.65 () 22.45 31.75 68.42 52.45 52.45 52.45 () 14.65 25.86 45.72 33.5 33.5 33.5 1.49%.5%.18%.34%.34%.34% PE/G().72 1.89.6 3.67.83.59 14.82% 16.45% 25.56% 22.97% 24.67% 25.97% () 4.29 3.79 3.75 3.89 4.99 6.56 () 3.44 8.52 15.22 9.93 7.74 5.88 ().89.8.51.73 1.8 1.5 A() 76.8 124.8 249.76 354.9 354.9 354.9 () 255.7 331.59 431.7 517.29 517.29 517.29 EPS +> 3% 3 12.892 1.23 1.73 42%28 1.93 32 此报告仅供诺安基金管理有限公司使用 1

... 5... 5... 5... 6 + >... 7 + >... 8... 8... 9... 9... 1... 11... 11 1... 11 2... 14 3... 15... 16 1... 17 2... 18... 2... 2... 2 1... 21 2... 23... 23... 24 1... 24 2 OTC... 24... 24 +... 24 1... 25 2... 26 3... 26 +... 26... 27... 27... 27 2

... 28... 28... 28... 29... 29... 3... 3... 31 1.. 5 2... 6 3... 6 4... 6 5... 7 6... 7 7... 7 8... 8 9 7 25.5%... 8 1... 8 11... 9 12... 1 13 3%... 1 14... 1 15... 11 16... 12 17... 12 18 8%... 12 19 1... 12 2... 13 21 82%... 13 22... 13 23... 14 24... 15 25... 15 26... 16 27... 16 3

28 1... 17 29... 18 3... 18 31... 19 32 9... 2 33 3%... 2 34... 21 35... 22 36... 22 37... 22 38... 23 39 5%... 24 4... 25 41... 27 42... 28 43... 28 44... 3 4

1 OTC FDA 1998 1 8% 1% 1% 5

2 3 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 4151 393 2572 372 1285 942 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 25-27 4 6

5 6 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 17615 7799 4596 6864 1538 6455 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 4% 3% 2% 1% 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2 2 OTC 7 +> + 7

8 +> 2 2 4.8 27 2 7 21.75% 2 65 27 3.2 7 25.5% 2 53.23% 27 83.54% 9 7 25.5% 1 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 9% 75% 6% 45% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27-1% 3% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 8

2-23 7 21.75% 21 22 23 24-26 24-26 9 27 11 25 5% 2 4% 15 3% 1 2% 5 1% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 % 3% WHO 15 9

23 2 2% 3% 12 18 15 12 9 6 3 13 3% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2-23 23 % 23 24 25 26 27H 6% 14 1

5% 5% 15 1 35%-4% 27 27.% 11

16 17 22 23.9% 37 26 22 88.5% 3 26 Docetaxel 18 8% 19 1 6 5 4 3 2 1 1972 1992 2 24 27 1 3 3% 2% 12

27 4.67 81.54% 22 9 3 23-8% 27 2 21 82% 1/3 22 25 2 15 1 5-13

35% 2 15%-2% / - 24 FDA () 5 12% 23 25 2 2% 232425 25 1 8 14

24 15%-2% 25 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 3 1 15

26 15 125 1 75 5 25 24 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 27 27 16

1 1 5% CPT-111 5-2 5-5- 11 5-FU 1987 FDA 1 FDA 4 5- Camptosar 27 9.69 28 1 2 8% 16 6% 12 4% 8 2% 4 % -2% 17

28 2 2 Dabur 4mg 1mg 21 3 May & Baker 26 29 3 3 25 2 15 1 5 24 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% % 2 18

Femara 1997 7 2 7 SNDA 2 8 FDA 21 1 1 FDA ER / PR 24 12 FDA US4978672211 6 3 NCE 22 7 25 I318 24 1 1 1998 6 26 SFDA 1999 4 1 SFDA 29 21 7 SFDA 2.5mg X21212 1999 [1999 X-132 ][1999 X 133 ] 26 31 29 19

32 9 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 35% 5% 3% 33 3% 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 24 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 2

5 2% 45% 28 34 1 26 5% 8% 7% 21

35 36 14% 86% 1 85.79% 37 22

38 3 9% 25 2 6% 15 1 3% 5 % 2 (OH) CH3 24 11 H241246 27 5% 23

39 5% 9 75 6 45 3 15 7% 55% 4% 25% 1% -5% 1 27 56 27 1.5 2 OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC OTC + 24

S1 29 4 1 25

2 1999 24 2 23 3 FDA (ALL) Enzon27 38 25% 4 3 4 5% 27 9 7 85 24 + + 26

PEG-YN- 968/ 41 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 69. 8418. 11668. 15445 22145.7 262497.65 19.53% 22.% 38.61% 32.33% 3.92% 29.86% 828. 9259.8 1184.6 14668.48 1923.84 24937.28 25.37% 11.83% 19.71% 32.33% 3.92% 29.86% 88.% 89.% 9.5% 89.% 88.5% 88.% 23752.2 22564.59 33864. 4636.8 48996. 59175. -7.% -5.% 5.8% 2.% 2.57% 2.78% 475.44 4512.92 6772.8 8127.36 9799.2 11835. -21.43% -5.% 5.8% 2.% 2.57% 2.78% 8.% 8.% 8.% 79.% 78.5% 78.% 15. 13969.5 23469. 3785. 55347.5 76968.13 38.1% 39.% 68.% 61.28% 46.23% 39.6% 168. 2793.9 3525.4 5685.7 8313.19 1156.61 36.27% 73.75% 26.17% 61.28% 46.23% 39.6% 84.% 8.% 84.98% 83.5% 83.% 83.% 27

42 43 5% 1% 4% 8% 3% 6% 2% 4% 1% 2% % 27 28E 29E 21E % 27 28E 29E 21E 8 1 25% 4% 31.33%3.5%29.19%.892 1.23 1.73 41.27% 28 32 41% 28

27 FDA 3 FDA FDA FDA 29

44 FDA 3

25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 1,179 1,422 1,96 2,574 3,359 4,339 431 566 572 897 1,4 1,818 2.6% 37.8% 31.3% 3.5% 29.2% 291 265 528 746 919 1,136-23 -266-33 -445-585 -759 69 98 115 146 192 25 % 19.5% 18.7% 16.9% 17.3% 17.4% 17.5% 1 16 279 2 22 211 949 1,156 1,629 2,129 2,774 3,58 81 945 1,495 1,989 2,713 3,414 % 8.5% 81.3% 83.1% 82.7% 82.6% 82.5% % 62.3% 64.8% 74.2% 81.7% 85.2% 87.4% -19-23 -31-41 -53-69 4 4 4 5 4 4 % 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 48 59 471 45 426 447-476 -563-798 -1,4-1,3-1,657 % 37.3% 34.9% 23.4% 16.6% 13.4% 11.4% % 4.4% 39.5% 4.7% 39.% 38.7% 38.2% 3 34 38 41-24 -31-46 -38-514 -62 485 513 519 447 47 494 % 2.3% 21.2% 2.7% 14.8% 15.3% 14.3% % 37.7% 35.2% 25.8% 18.3% 14.8% 12.6% EBIT 215 27 394 74 97 1,233 1,285 1,458 2,14 2,436 3,184 3,99 % 18.2% 19.% 2.1% 27.4% 27.% 28.4% 6 151 1-4 -9-8 -8 87 11 249 319 343 49 %.%.%.2%.4%.2%.2% 36 4 46 89 93 88-23 123 141 355 48 587 497 12-1 -5-5 48 48 1 18 39 25 6 12 25 %.% 6.3% 7.6% 4.1%.%.% 177 21 381 48 587 498 215 289 58 619 849 1,175 1,95 1,246 1,616 2,1 2,579 3,393 18.2% 2.3% 25.9% 24.1% 25.3% 27.1% 13 11 17 17 17 17 6 1 4-4 1,285 1,458 2,14 2,436 3,184 3,99 221 289 511 615 849 1,175 18.7% 2.3% 26.1% 23.9% 25.3% 27.1% -61-84 -93-154 -212-294 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 27.5% 29.2% 18.2% 25.% 25.% 25.% 16 25 419 462 636 881.636.623.958.892 1.23 1.73-2 -2 6 4.293 3.756 3.748 3.886 4.986 6.559 162 27 413 462 636 881.893.83.58.731 1.76 1.498 13.8% 14.5% 21.1% 17.9% 18.9% 2.3%.22.16.1.13.13.13 14.82% 16.59% 25.56% 22.97% 24.67% 25.97% 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 12.62% 14.17% 2.51% 18.95% 19.99% 22.54% 162 27 419 462 636 881 14.17% 14.71% 18.75% 26.4% 24.75% 27.1% -2-2 69 57 81 63 55 56 2.98% 2.62% 37.77% 31.33% 3.5% 29.19% 7-15 -137 76 6 6 EBIT 2.33% 2.4% 45.27% 78.77% 28.83% 35.92% -8 19-144 -222-194 -222 32.3% 27.39% 99.82% 11.79% 37.86% 38.44% 228 266 219 378 557 775 2.38% 13.44% 38.12% 2.96% 3.71% 22.77% -63-85 -66-7 -79-8 -11-158 99 48.3 38. 52.9 78. 7. 65. 18 57-75 -5-5 14.8 114.4 117.9 12. 12. 12. -63-78 -167 17-129 -13 98.4 71.3 65.5 9. 8. 8. 1 14.4 113.6 87.2 51.2 39.3 3.5-51 12-6 151-15 6 6-57 -1-77 -77-34.6% -42.5% -47.97% -52.69% -54.66% -58.27% -44 6-45 -7 75-227 EBIT -2,874.7-59.6 1.9 74.2 18. 154.7 121 194 7 325 53 418 13.78% 13.79% 18.9% 16.76% 18.44% 12.75% 31

3 9 13 28 2 7 8 12 1 1 1 1 1.67 1.57 1.51 1.43 1 2 3 4 5 1. = 1.1~2.= 2.1~3.= 3.1~4.= 4.1~5.= () 1 26-11-9 12.56 N/A 2 27-2-8 25.8 N/A 46.71 41.71 36.71 31.71 26.71 21.71 16.71 11.71 1 2 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 694 6113 732 753 782 71114 8213 858 873 612 2% 612 1%2% 612-1%1% 612 1%2% 612 2% 32