I 2009 2008 12 8 021-62078960 yubing@pasc.com.cn 021-62078709 wangdean@pasc.com.cn 1 2008 08 2007 2008 22009 09 32009 1998 2009 4 2009 09 5 2009 4 000338 000951 000800 000927
2007 2008E 2009E 2007 2008E 2009E 3.88 4.77 5.28 7.13 5.8 5.24 1.78 1.71 1.5 1.86 7.51 8.56 6.9 2.15 0.34 0.58 0.82 20.82 12.21 8.63 1.83 0.29 0.38 0.47 12.9 9.84 7.96 1.69 0.15 0.1 0.15 28.07 42.1 28.07 2.02 0.46 0.27 0.49 9.46 16.11 8.88 2.4 0.73 0.86 0.6 11.92 10.12 14.5 2.84 0.62 0.53 0.47 8.29 9.7 10.94 1.65 0.41 0.4 0.54 12.32 12.63 9.35 1.16 0.88 0.97 1.02 9.32 8.45 8.04 1.81 0.25 0.21 0.24 11.96 14.24 12.46 0.92 0.24 0.21 0.24 12.25 14 12.25 1.11 0.71 0.39 0.44 8.41 15.31 13.57 1.07 0.42 0.51 0.63 10.43 8.59 6.95 1.25 0.29 0.15 0.2 12.66 24.47 18.35 1.08 08122 2/24
2008... 4 1... 4 2... 5 3... 5 4... 5 5... 6 2009... 7 1... 8 2 2009... 8 309... 8 2009... 9 1... 9 2... 10 3... 13 4... 14 5 2009... 16... 17 1... 17 2... 17 3... 19 4... 20... 21 1 000338... 21 2 000951... 22 3 000800... 22 4 000927... 22 3/24
2008 2009 09 09 2008 1 2008 1 120 100 80 60 40 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 2005 2006 2007 2008 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 18.90% 200501 200504 200507 200510 200601 200604 200607 200610 200701 200704 200707 200710 200801 200804 200807 200810 SUV MPV 4/24
2 2008 2 35% 30% 27.57% 31.62% 25% 20% 19.29% 15% 10% 5% 10.72% 7.33% 3.47% 0% 2007 2008 10 3 3 08110 10 10 39458-18.30% 546812 27.41% 23784-6.87% 308897 39.85% 15221-23.78% 229206 36.93% SUV 6785 59.05% 60231 47.99% 15674-31.12% 237915 14.22% 1590-23.11% 23799 20.61% 11123-36.84% 170308 6.42% 1374-21.13% 24476 89.66% 4 08 08 5/24
4 200819 08 07 Q3 9272.8 7961.42 16.47% 1.29% 605.17 517.09 17.03% -7.19% 08 07 Q3 15.30% 16.87% -1.57% -2.77 4.32% 4.20% 0.12% 4.21% 4.69% -0.48% 0.06% 0.06% 0.01% 6.53% 6.49% 0.03% -0.54 5 2007 600066 2008 08 11 BETA 5 2008111-59.09% 5.35% -71.41% -6.97% -59.11% 5.33% -74.87% -10.44% -65.02% -0.59% -75.53% -11.10% -66.01% -1.57% -76.22% -11.79% -66.41% -1.97% -76.52% -12.08% -67.41% -2.97% -76.56% -12.12% -67.66% -3.22% -77.00% -12.56% -67.93% -3.49% -77.67% -13.24% -68.62% -4.18% -70.18% -5.74% WIND 2008 6/24
6 2009 09 09 09 1 1 0819 9272.8 16.47% 17.03% 13 200819 7/24
8/24 1 GDP 7 GDP CEIC 2 2009 09 GDP 8.5% 16%18% 20%22% 10%15% 08 12% 14%15% 09 08 09 309 09 09 2009 5% : 30 GDP
1978 3 GDP GDP3 8 2009 1 3/4 09 9/24
10/24-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 200701 200702 200703 200704 200705 200706 200707 200708 200709 200710 200711 200712 200801 200802 200803 200804 200805 200806 200807 200808 200809 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 0 100 200 300 400 500 20061 20063 20065 20067 20069 200611 200701 200703 200705 200707 200709 200711 200801 200804 200806 200808 200810 9 CEIC 10 11 CEIC 2 34
11/24 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 2005-12 2006-03 2006-05 2006-07 2006-09 2006-11 2007-02 2007-04 2007-06 2007-08 2007-10 2007-12 2008-03 2008-05 2008-07 2008-09 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2005-02 2005-04 2005-06 2005-08 2005-10 2006-02 2006-04 2006-06 2006-08 2006-10 2007-03 2007-05 2007-07 2007-09 2007-11 2008-03 2008-05 2008-07 2008-09 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 / 12 13 ; CEIC 14 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 200501 200505 200509 200601 200605 200609 200701 200705 200709 200801 200805 200809 5000 15000 25000 35000 45000 + CEIC 98 973 19982 982 992 986 98 98 27% 98 12.7%99 35%
15 98 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 8.21 4.71 3.09 3.17 3.09 3.48 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -2.37% 12.70% 35.31% 74.31% 1997 1998 1999 2000 : 1% 2008 1.07 2009 3.76 6.7% 16 : 2008E 11920 12150 2130 2360 23.6 10727 2009E 12420 18500 2200 8280 82.8 37636 2010E 12420 23000 1930 12510 125.1 56864 4 1 07 1.15 12/24
17 250 200 150 100 50 0 5.57% 6.37% 10.69% 17.23% 22.79% 21.11% 33.08% 23.33% 20.33% 32.15% 24.91% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200810 09 2009 25% 2008 09 09 4% 18 09 10.5 9 7.5 6 4.5 3 1.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 2008 2009E 3 08 110 07 26.5% 35% 65% 1979 2000 04 2001 93% 2009 1% 13/24
19 20 2008 2007 2008 110 100.00% 100.00% 3.81% 63.17% 71.00% -8.03% 1.66% 2.09% -11.73% 34.87% 26.53% 37.05% 0.30% 0.38% -9.80% 21 19792008 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 CEIC 2001 2003 2005 2007 4 22 65% 55% 45% 46% 35% 25% 15% 1957 1970 1979 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010E 2013E 2016E 2019E CEIC 14/24
15/24 25% 28% 31% 34% 37% Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 0% 10% 20% 30% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 2003-01 2003-05 2003-09 2004-01 2004-07 2004-11 2005-03 2005-07 2005-11 2006-03 2006-07 2006-11 2007-03 2007-07 2007-11 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2020 58%,08 12 2010 23 19642010F 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 500% 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008F 2010F CEIC 19% 58.5% 38% 07 30% 085 24 / CEIC
25 / 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 384 406 413 431 453 471 492 511 524 527 532 468 46 47 49 49 51 53 53 53 55 54 56 52 770 763 768 767 757 760 769 775 770 762 757 765 54 56 58 59 60 61 61 63 65 67 69 61 CEIC 5 2009 09 26 2009 2007 2008E 2009E 879 944 7% 995 5% 630 680 8% 719 6% 1 473 505 7% 530 5% 2MPV 23 21-7% 23 10% 3SUV 36 46 29% 50 9% 4 99 108 9% 116 7% 249 264 6% 276 5% 1 35 36 2% 36 1% : 4 5 12% 5 4% 8 8-1% 8-4% 23 24 2% 24 2% 2 214 228 6% 238 4% : 49 54 11% 57 5% 24 21-11% 20-5% 110 116 5% 120 3% 32 37 17% 41 11% 27 2009 2007 2008F 2009F 17201 19260 12.00% 20220 5.00% 1027 1100 7.10% 1112 1.10% 2007 2008F 2009F 15.90% 14.80% -1.1 15.00% 0.2 7.90% 7.10% -0.8 7.50% 0.4 6.00% 5.70% -0.3 5.50% -0.2 16/24
1 2009 2009 2 125 28 :6.2 :6.2 : 0.2 : 1 ( )6 ( )5.2 0 17/24
125 40 / 08 134 / + 29 L 5 6 8 10 12 14 15000-22.11% -19.13% -15.07% -12.43% -10.58% -9.21% 20000-17.55% -15.07% -11.74% -9.62% -8.15% -7.07% 25000-14.55% -12.43% -9.62% -7.85% -6.63% -5.73% 30000-12.43% -10.58% -8.15% -6.63% -5.58% -4.82% 35000-10.85% -9.21% -7.07% -5.73% -4.82% -4.16% 40000-9.62% -8.15% -6.24% -5.05% -4.25% -3.66% 45000-8.64% -7.31% -5.58% -4.52% -3.79% -3.27% 50000-7.85% -6.63% -5.05% -4.08% -3.43% -2.95% 30 L 10 220*12 2640 10 50000-2640 -7.85% 220*12 2640 10 100000-2640 -4.08% 220*12 2640 10 150000-2640 -2.76% 25 220*2.5*12 6600 20 50000-6600 -9.58% 220*2.5*12 6600 20 100000-6600 -5.03% 220*2.5*12 6600 20 150000-6600 -3.41% 40 220*4*12 10560 25 50000-10560 -11.94% 220*4*12 10560 25 100000-10560 -6.35% 220*4*12 10560 25 150000-10560 -4.32% 18/24
31 L 10 5 5*220*12 13200 20 50000-13200 -17.48% 5*220*12 13200 20 100000-13200 -9.58% 5*220*12 13200 20 150000-13200 -6.60% (10*220+2*110)*12 29040 30 50000-29040 -23.71% 20 (10*220+2*110)*12 29040 30 100000-29040 -13.45% 12 (10*220+2*110)*12 29040 30 150000-29040 -9.39% (10*220+110*20)*12 52800 40 50000-52800 -29.76% 40 (10*220+110*20)*12 52800 40 100000-52800 -17.48% 30 (10*220+110*20)*12 52800 40 150000-52800 -12.38% 3 08 09 08 08 32 2008 2007 2008 13.02% 11.04% -15.21% 16.88% 15.01% -11.04% 21.88% 20.64% -5.69% 17.58% 16.99% -3.37% 17.86% 16.42% -8.03% 7.92% 4.89% -38.26% 12.68% 9.10% -28.23% 24.03% 19.80% -17.60% 15.24% 12.79% -16.08% 12.17% 10.24% -15.86% 13.52% 11.83% -12.50% 23.60% 20.99% -11.06% 19.10% 17.01% -10.94% 15.76% 14.18% -10.03% 36.19% 32.78% -9.42% 20.78% 19.21% -7.56% 19/24
33 160 140 120 Px Mid 100 80 60 40 20 06-6-16 06-8-16 06-10-16 06-12-16 07-2-16 07-4-16 07-6-16 07-8-16 07-10-16 07-12-16 08-2-16 08-4-16 08-6-16 08-8-16 08-10-16 10000 9000 8000 7000 Px Mid 4000 3000 / 6000 5000 2000 4000 3000 1000 2000 1000 06-6-16 06-8-16 06-10-16 06-12-16 07-2-16 07-4-16 07-6-16 07-8-16 07-10-16 07-12-16 08-2-16 08-4-16 08-6-16 08-8-16 08-10-16 0 05-01 05-05 05-10 06-03 06-07 06-12 07-04 07-09 08-02 08-06 WTI LME LME CEIC 09 08 4 34 PE 7.13 12.02 6.90 7.51 12.43 6.12 8.34 12.84 12.35 8.44 12.86 2.24 9.32 13.52 3.15 9.50 20.84 23.20 10.34 20.89 1.60 11.73 27.19 3.00 12.00 9.37 08 12 2 07 WIND 20/24
PE PB 08 10 11 35 PE WIND 09 1 000338 30% 80% 90% 2008 2009 EPS4.77 5.28 5 21/24
22/24 2 000951 HOWO 70% 08 EGR EGR 80% 2008 2009 EPS 1.50 1.86 3 000800 6 2009 6 0809 30%50% 0809 85%112% 5 9 6 EPS1.05 20082009EPS0.56 0.81 9 4 000927 06 08 09 30% 08 5.5 541.4% 08 10 50% 09 13 RAV4 20082009 0.10 0.15
200811 20081114 200810 10 20081111 10 5 23/24
6 20% 6 10%20% 6 10% 6 10% 2008 8 518048 4008866338 075582449257