600198.SH EMV 2010 5 PBOC2.0 IC 2010 5 IC EMV 2011 IC 10% 2012 20% 2013 30% 2011-2015 IC 0.9 1.93 3.85 6.9 9.2 IC EMV IC 2011 EMV EMV 1 2 13.56M NFC 2010 8 3 2007 2010-2012 EPS 0.18 0.46 0.68 PE 128 49 33 IC 2012 33 EMV IC 13.56M 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E ( ) 2706.06 3211.07 3532.17 4902.66 6383.26 EBITDA( ) 370.30 325.55 238.25 479.49 623.13 45.65 57.47 77.99 202.08 297.05 EPS( ) 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.46 0.68 PE(X) 219.46 174.30 128.44 49.57 33.72 EV/EBITDA(X) 30.89 33.44 45.88 23.47 18.54 PB(X) 17.95 14.56 11.79 8.80 6.58 ROIC 7.07% 8.31% 6.74% 11.15% 11.44% wangjiawei@chinastock.com.cn 8610 6656 8272 S0130209081719 wangli_zb@chinastock.com.cn 8610 8357 4039 S0130210070010 2010.11.19 22.82 439 437 100 300 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 2009-11 2009-12 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 www.chinastock.com.cn
IC 2010 5 PBOC2.0 IC 2010 PBOC2.0 5 IC EMV 2011 IC 10% 2012 20% 2013 30% 2011-2015 IC 0.9 1.93 3.85 6.9 9.2 IC EMV IC 2011 EMV EMV 1 2009 7 2010 55% 1.086 13.56M NFC 2.4G 2010 8 3 2007 EMV EMV IC 2012 33 2010-2012 EPS 0.18 0.46 0.68 PE 128 49 33 EMV IC 13.56M EMV EMV 2
1 EMV EMV EMV EMV EMV EMV IC 2009 IC 2009 40 3 240 POS ATM 2012 7 1 POS ATM IC IC EMV IC POS IC EMV 2 EMV EMV 3 2010 128 IC 2012 33 3
SoC IC EMV 58 IC IC 2010 5 PBOC2.0 IC 2010 PBOC2.0 5 IC POS IC EMV EMV IC 453 58 PBOC2.0 32 CPU IC EMV IC NFC 2009 7 2010 55% 1.086 13.56M NFC 2.4G 2010 8 3 2007 IC EMV IC Europay MasterCard Visa EMV EMV CPU IC IC EMV IC EMV EMV ABI SERMEPA GIE CARTES BANCAIRES SECCOS 2005 IC 2.0 PBOC2.0 IC EMV EMV EMV IC 2010 5 PBOC2.0 IC2010 4
PBOC2.0 5 IC IC EMV EMV 2010 22.66 14.5% 2.9 1.75 20.59 13.3% 2.07 27.4% 0.45 0.16 1 IC 20 22.66 2.9 IC 453 58 IC PBOC2.0 32 CPU IC EMV IC 2011 EMV EMV IC 20 IC 49.65% IC 10 / 80%-90% 8-9 41% IC 45% IC 3.6-4 IC 6 2011 1 1 IC 2013 1 1 IC 2015 1 1 IC IC 13 2011 IC 90% IC 40% 30 2012 IC 70% IC 30% 2011 IC 10% 2012 20% 2013 30% 2010 IC 800-1000 2011 IC 0.9 0.25 0.25 2.5 2011 IC 10% 0.35 2.2 6 3 0.05 0.5 2011 IC 10% 2012 IC 1.93 0.9 0.38 2.9 2012 IC 20% 0.5 0.15 0.75 2012 IC 20% 2013 IC 3.85 1.3 2013 IC 0.99 3.3 IC 30% 1.2 0.36 1.2 IC 30% 5
1 2011-2015 IC 2011 0.25 0.25 0.35 0.05 0.9 0.3 2012 0.9 0.38 0.5 0.15 1.93 0.64 2013 1.3 0.99 1.2 0.36 3.85 1.28 2014 2.5 1.5 1.9 1 6.9 2.3 2015 3 1.7 2.5 2 9.2 3.06 1 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2 EMV 1994 1996 (IC) v1.0 2001 3 2005 3 EMV EMV2000 (IC) / IC v2.0 (PBOC2.0) EMV / 2005 2.0 Visa 2005 CFCA CA 2005 12 2005 12 EMV 2007 PBOC2.0 2007 7 EMV 2007 2.0 2008 8 V2.0 2009 3 2 POS IC 2010 5 IC2010 IC 2010 IC IC PBOC2.0 5 IC 6
NFC 2005 200 2009 1630 69% 2010 2009 3827 30.3% EMV 3 48.4% 2010 28.45 2 3 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 19% 19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 4 5 30 80% 1.4 70% 25 20 15 10 5 0 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7
RF-SIM NFC RF-SIM RF RF-SIM RF-SIM RF-SIM 2.4GHz 13.56MHz POS 2.4GHz NFC IC NFC ISO 14443 TypeA NFC GSM NFC 13.56M 2.4G NFC 3 SMS/IVR/WAP /K-JAVA RF-SIM NFC 4 SIM IC 2000 STK 2003 8 10 3 10 398 20% 2004 12 2009 5 55 3G NFC 3G 2009 6 2006 SIMPass SIM 2007 enfc 2008 2006 NFC SIM SIM IVR JAVA 13.56MHz SIM 8
2010 8 3 2 9.2 100 2007 3DGIS 3 70% 3 6 7 9
IC 2010-2012 EPS 0.18 0.46 0.68 PE 128 49 33 5 SWOT SWOT 4.0 IC IC PBOC2.0 32 EMV SIM 4.5 3.0 IC EMV 3 5.0 8 16 3.5 6 3.8 5.0 5.0 IC 3.5 4.5 IC 8 16 32 2007 3.5 10
7 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 929.8 740.7 814.8 1131.0 1472.5 2706.1 3211.1 3532.2 4902.7 6383.3 15.1 26.7 29.3 40.7 53.0 2022.0 2481.8 2776.3 3686.8 4787.4 916.2 866.5 953.1 1323.0 1722.5 15.1 17.0 18.7 26.0 33.9 67.4 93.6 123.0 161.9 212.5 176.1 208.9 229.8 319.0 415.3 42.3 60.7 66.8 92.7 120.6 223.0 286.6 315.3 437.6 569.7 807.7 753.7 843.1 1119.6 1453.9 128.4 88.1 65.4 77.8 102.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9 76.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.4 79.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 373.1 413.5 383.9 353.9 323.8-0.1 28.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 49.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 126.5 81.2 127.5 355.5 474.9 223.3 151.6 136.4 121.3 106.1 6.5 55.7 71.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 6.7 5.9 5.2 132.9 136.9 199.2 355.5 474.9 3637.8 3351.0 3591.1 4583.7 5703.7 36.6 25.8 37.6 67.0 89.5 2123.0 1277.7 1312.5 1866.8 2420.2 96.4 111.1 161.7 288.5 385.4 190.5 124.3 139.1 184.7 239.8 45.6 57.5 78.0 202.1 297.0 349.8 281.5 310.6 412.5 535.6 50.7 53.6 83.7 86.4 88.3 38.2 39.7 41.3 43.6 46.5 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.46 0.68 29.4 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.46 0.68 1.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 142.8 586.9 586.9 586.9 586.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6% 18.7% 10.0% 38.8% 30.2% 0.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 EBIT 200.3% -19.7% -11.4% 125.6% 33.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.6% 25.9% 35.7% 159.1% 47.0% 3079.8 2662.9 2741.4 3445.5 4180.1 558.0 688.1 849.7 1138.2 1523.6 25.3% 22.7% 21.4% 24.8% 25.0% 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 4.1% 4.7% 96 111 162 288 385 ROE 8.2% 8.4% 9.2% 17.8% 19.5% 101 109 46 46 46 ROIC 7.07% 8.31% 6.74% 11.15% 11.44% 268 267 104-160 -110-79 -41 1 0 0 PE 219.5 174.3 128.4 49.6 33.7-329 -209-31 476 451 P/S 3.7 3.1 2.8 2.0 1.6-141 17 74 316 342 P/B 18.0 14.6 11.8 8.8 6.6 761 930 741 815 1131 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 620 947 815 1131 1473 EV/EBITDA 30.9 33.4 45.9 23.5 18.5 11
8 -DCF 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E EBIT 21674 19210 43332 57695 100433 135585 176261 211513 243240 279725 321684 4086 3622 8169 10877 18935 25562 33231 39877 45858 52737 60647 NOPLAT 19554 17588 15588 35163 46818 81499 110023 143030 171636 197381 226989-4622 38466-17044 -57281-64341 -106656-133899 -156186-139140 -128626-147920 799 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67734 3160-17501 -12905-20539 -19257-8537 37115 73374 83687 95548 WACC 5.81% Ke 9.00% g 3.00% Kd 6.17% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 57134 t 18.85% 6.09% 22.49 24.35 26.58 29.30 32.69 2267797 Rf 3.00% 6.59% 20.02 21.54 23.32 25.46 28.07 163453 E(Rm) 8.00% 7.09% 17.93 19.18 20.63 22.34 24.39 158004 Rm Rf 5.00% 7.59% 16.14 17.18 18.37 19.77 21.41 2109792 D/A 13.62% 8.09% 14.59 15.46 16.46 17.61 18.94 43899 E/A 86.38% 8.59% 13.24 13.98 14.82 15.77 16.87 48.06 Beta 1.20 WACC 9.09% 12.06 12.69 13.40 14.20 15.12 9 09A 10E 11E 12E 10E 11E 12E PEG 10 002017 2010-11-22 26.57 0.20 0.22 0.50 1.05 123 53 25 199 53 3.32 002104 2010-11-22 18.00 0.32 0.32 0.48 0.65 57 38 28 441 79 1.17 300077 2010-11-22 144.9 1.44 1.84 2.63 3.52 79 55 41 109 158 1.11 600584 2010-11-22 12.84 0.03 0.27 0.37 0.47 48 35 27 853 110 0.05 002268 2010-11-22 27.03 0.44 0.37 0.49 0.60 73 56 45 133 36 1.96 300130 2010-11-22 46.89 0.93 0.98 1.38 1.90 48 34 25 64 30 1.19 300099 2010-11-22 107.5 1.56 1.33 2.10 2.83 81 51 38 41 44 5.61 002230 2010-11-22 84.92 0.50 0.66 0.97 1.43 129 88 59 161 137 4.12 600198 2010-11-22 22.82 0.13 0.18 0.46 0.68 128 49 33 439 100 0.84 0.62 0.68 1.04 1.46 85 51 36 271 83 2.15 12
6 12 20% 10% 6 12 20% 6 12 10% 20% 6 12 6 12 10% 1
35 C 100141 010-66568888 010-66568641 www.chinastock.com.cn 010-66568849 010-66568281 010-66568908 2