40 4 2016 7 Vol. 40 No. 4 July 2016 76 Population Research * 100872 Fertility Behavior and Elderly Women s Health Song Yueping Song Zhengliang Abstract Based on data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey and treating fertility as a unique event in women s life this paper explores the impact of fertility behavior-number of children gender structure and fertility timing and intervals on elderly women`s health and estimates the healthy survival time of elderly women by using the accelerated failure time model.results show that fertility behavior significantly influences elderly women s health.in a health perspective more children would reduce happiness.less number of children appropriate age at childbearing and longer birth intervals significantly increase healthy survival time.the paper further discusses the mechanisms through which fertility behavior impact elderly women s health and points out that public policy should pay more attention to the potential impact of changing fertility behavior on women s health in the context of implementing a two-child policy. Keyw ords Elderly Woman Fertility Behavior Accelerated Failure Time Model Healthy Survival Time Authors Song Yueping is Associate Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Email songyueping@ ruc.edu.cn Song Zhengliang is Master Student School of Population Studies and Sociology Renmin University of China. * 15ZDC036
4 77 1 2002 2005 2006 2009 2011 2014 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study CHARLS 2011 ~ 2012 2 ADL IADL 2001 Fuhrer and Stansfeld 2002 2009 2004 2007 2005 2015 Chen and Short 2008 2011 2009 2011 2012 2015 2011 BMI 37. 6 2002
78 40 2002 2006 2004 2013 25 ~ 29 1991 1992 3 3. 1 2011 ~ 2012 45 CHARLS 150 450 10257 17708 CHARLS 15 1980 60 2350 3. 2 14 3. 3 4
4 79 CHARLS Table 1 1 Descriptive Statistics of the Main Variables 68. 72 68. 64 68. 75 2. 93 2. 73 3. 00 0 = 0. 72 0. 72 0. 72 0 = 0. 25 0. 22 0. 26 0 = 0. 11 0. 12 0. 11 0. 34 0. 33 0. 35 0 = 0. 41 0. 46 0. 40 0 = 0. 35 0. 34 0. 36 71. 37 71. 37 71. 36 5. 21 5. 02 5. 28 % 56. 16 56. 53 56. 03 0 = 0. 44 0. 42 0. 45 3. 40 3. 36 3. 42 20 0. 30 0. 29 0. 30 21 ~ 25 0. 51 0. 49 0. 52 26 ~ 30 0. 15 0. 19 0. 13 31 ~ 35 0. 03 0. 02 0. 04 36 0. 01 0. 01 0. 01 7. 84 7. 97 7. 80 2350 590 1760 1 1760 75% 69 7 1 /4 3 5
80 40 0. 3 46% 6 3 25 4 2 4 Logistic 4. 1 survival time event history analysis life table analysis duration analysis hazard analysis censor 4. 2 PH Model AFT T lnt = x'β + u u v = e u T = e x'β v t x = f T ( t ) S T ( t) λ T ( ) = f ( v e -x'β t) e -x'β ( e -x'β t) S v = λ v ( e -x'β t) e -x'β 1 e -x'β > 1 λ v ( t) AFT AFT 1
4 81 AIC 1 AFT 5 5. 1 Kaplan and Meier 1958 Nelson 1972 Aalen 1978 Moeschberger and Klein 2003 1 30 61 61 Table 1 1 Survival Function and Hazard Function of Healthy Survival Time of Elderly Woman 5. 2 2 Logistic 1 5 2 6 5 1 AFT u Logistic Logistic AIC LR L 0 L 1 LR LR = - 2log L 0 - L 1 AFT AIC Akaike information criterion AIC = - 2 logl + 2 c + p + 1 c p
82 40 Table 2 2 Regression Results of Fertility Behavior on Elderly Women`s Health AFT Logistic 1 logistic 2 3 4 5 6 1. 001 0. 999 1. 000 1. 000 1. 000 1. 000 0 = 1. 138 0. 960 0. 988 0. 985 0. 985 0. 990 1. 124 ** 0. 966 0. 990 ** 0. 989 * 0. 990 * 0. 992 ** 20 21 ~ 25 0. 928 1. 039 1. 017 1. 026 * 1. 023 * 1. 008 26 ~ 30 0. 608 *** 1. 189 * 1. 051 *** 1. 072 *** 1. 055 *** 1. 036 *** 31 ~ 35 1. 545 0. 980 0. 999 1. 069 * 1. 037 0. 975 36 1. 207 1. 041 1. 023 1. 114 * 1. 063 0. 990 0. 962 ** 1. 014 1. 004 ** 1. 007 *** 1. 005 ** 1. 003 ** 1. 015 1. 010 1. 014 *** 1. 012 *** 1. 014 *** 1. 014 *** 1. 010 0. 996 0. 999 0. 999 0. 998 0. 999 0 = 0. 997 0. 989 0. 991 0. 981 0. 982 0. 999 0 = 0. 952 0. 988 0. 996 0. 973 0. 981 1. 003 0 = 0. 879 1. 035 1. 009 1. 009 1. 005 1. 012 0. 971 1. 005 1. 000 0. 997 1. 000 1. 000 0 = 0. 733 *** 1. 098 1. 030 *** 1. 030 ** 1. 035 *** 1. 020 ** 0 = 1. 053 0. 982 0. 995 0. 991 0. 993 0. 999 0. 994 1. 001 1. 000 0. 999 0. 999 1. 000 1. 014 0. 997 0. 999 0. 999 0. 999 1. 000 1. 133 42. 79 *** 26. 78 *** 28. 72 *** 26. 15 *** 27. 57 *** lnp 5. 755 *** K 9. 806 *** LR - 1270. 97-2384. 74-487. 16-598. 18-558. 56-464. 87 AIC 4861. 47 1068. 32 1290. 37 1211. 13 1025. 33 2350 2350 2350 2350 2350 2350 * 10% **5% ***1% AIC LR AIC LR 2 3
4 83 H 0 lnp = 0 p 0. 001 2 6 κ 0 1 Logistic 2 1 2 6 12. 4% 0. 8% 2012 2013 26 ~ 30 3. 8% 0. 3% 5. 3 1 2010 77. 37 2012 61 3 0. 93 0. 54 26 ~ 30 1 2-6
84 40 20 2 30 2 ~ 3 3 Table 3 3 Prediction Results of Healthy Survival Time of Elderly Woman % 0 ~ 24 62. 29 20 62. 01 25 ~ 49 62. 89 21 ~ 25 62. 45 50 ~ 74 62. 71 26 ~ 30 64. 00 75 ~ 100 61. 68 31 ~ 35 59. 97 36 60. 71 62. 74 62. 05 0 ~ 7 62. 23 8 62. 66 1 63. 68 2 62. 75 3 62. 21 6 4
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