* 37 5 2013 9 Vol. 37 No. 5 September 2013 68 Population Research 5 5 5 5 5 5 18 ~ 19 22 ~ 23 5 Infant Mortality and Under - five Mortality Rate in China s 2010 Census An Assessment Zhao Menghan Yang Fan Abstract China s 2010 census reported extremely low infant mortality and under - five mortality rates. This paper examines quality of data of the infant mortality and under - five mortality rates obtained from the 2010 census by comparing between various data sources. The paper reviews international experiences in changing infant mortality and under - five mortality rates and their relations with social and economic development demonstrating that the infant mortality and under - five mortality rates obtained from China s 2010 census are well beyond the general patterns obsevred in other countries. Applying Coale - Demeny model life tables and Brass logit models this paper provides an estimate of China s 2010 infant mortality and under - five mortality rates with the infant mortality rate being 18-19 per 1000 and under - five mortality rate 22-23 per 1000 contrasting to 3. 8 per 1000 and 6 per 1000 directly derived from the 2010 census. Keywords The Sixth Census Infant Mortality Rate Under - five Mortality Rate Assessment Authors Zhao Menghan is PhD Student and Yang Fan is Lecturer Center for Population and Deveopment Studies Renmin University of China. Email sophiezhaomh@ gmail. com
5 69 2010 2009 11 1 2010 10 31 5 3. 81 5. 99 5 5 5 5. 1 5 6. 1 World Bank 2012 5 10 5 5 5 1 Olga Penina et al 2010 Nadezhda Aleshina and Gerry Redmond 2005 1982 1984 1990 1992 1 ~ 4 1 ~ 4 1993 2000 10. 06% ~ 15. 00% 2003 1989 1989 1990 1994 1992 1993 1994 - Bennett - Horiuchi / Preston 2003 1981 ~ 2000 2004
70 37 5 1981 2010 25. 81 17. 82 2013 30 2010 17. 27 2013 2010 60% 2013 5 5 2010 5 2 2010 3. 81 1 2010 13. 1 9 5 5. 99 16. 4 21 10 5 10 1 1962 33. 0 2000 32. 2 1983 13. 3 2010 13. 1 20 10 5 2 2 5 1993 1999 5 5 5 1 1990 ~ 1995 年, 原卫生部在 30 个省 自治区 直辖市建立了 81 个 5 岁以下儿童死亡监测点, 动态监测全国 5 岁以下儿童死亡情况 1996 年起实行孕产妇死亡监测 5 岁以下儿童死亡监测和出生缺陷监测三网合一,2007 年起全国妇幼卫生监测点扩大到 336 个
5 71 1 Table 1 1991 ~ 2010 5 Pace of Reduction in Infant Mortality Rate and Under - five Mortality Rate in China between 1991 and 2010 年份 婴儿死亡率年均下降速度 ( % ) 妇幼卫生监测点数据 普查数据 5 岁以下儿童死亡概率年均下降速度 ( % ) 妇幼卫生监测点数据 普查数据 1991 ~ 2000 4. 81 4. 66 2000 ~ 2010 8. 60 17. 60 8. 46 15. 30 注 : 下降速度分别根据妇幼卫生监测点数据 ( 2011 中国卫生统计年鉴 ) 和第五次及第六次人口普查数据 ( 中国 2010 年人口普查资料 ) 推算公式分别为 D 1991 ( 1 - x 91 ) 9 = D 2000 和 D 2000 ( 1 - x 00 ) 10 = D 2010, 其中 D 1991 D 2000 和 D 2010 分别表示 1991 年 2000 年和 2010 年的死亡水平,x 91 和 x 00 分别表示所计算的 1991 ~ 2000 年和 2000 ~ 2010 年的下降速度 3 5 3. 1 5 2010 38. 0 5. 1 4. 2 5. 0 6. 5 3. 8 26 21 10 1 2000 ~ 2010 2. 88% 213 10% 2 12. 72% 2009 1 2000 ~ 2010 Figure 1 Declining IMR in Selected Countries and Areas from 2000 to 2010 数据来源 : World Bank. 2012. Health Indicators /Mortality Rate /Infant. World Bank.
72 37 2010 5 53. 3 48. 0 6. 1 5 6. 0 34 5 2000 ~ 2010 5 15. 30% 3. 07% 13. 47% 10% 2010 5 10% 5 2 2000 ~ 2010 5 Figure 2 Declining Under - five Mortality Rate in Selceted Countries and Areas from 2000 to 2010 数据来源 : World Bank. 2012. Health Indicators /Mortality Rate /under - 5. World Bank. 3. 2 3. 2. 1 5 2007 2006 2010 GDP 6819 3. 5 ~ 5. 0 2010 GPD 28759
5 73 4. 22 2010 GDP 6800 ~ 8000 19. 71 2010 5. 17 2010 5
74 37 22. 87 2010 3. 82 3. 2. 2 5 5 5 6 1991 ~ 2011 21 19 GDP 5 399 80% 5 1991 ~ 2011 19 Figure 5 Correlation between GDP Per Capita and IMR in 19 Countries between 1991 and 2011 数据来源 : 2010 年中国婴儿死亡率为第六次人口普查公布数据推算 ; 2010 年人均 GDP( PPP) 和其他国家婴儿死亡率均来源于世界银行数据库 ( World Bank,2012) 2010 5 23. 11 28. 89 5 5 3. 8 5. 99 5 5
5 75 5 5 6 1991 ~ 2011 19 5 Figure 6 Correlation between GDP Per Capita and Under - five Mortality Rate in 19 Countries between 1991 and 2011 数据来源 : 2010 年中国 5 岁以下儿童死亡概率为第六次人口普查公布数据推算 ; 2010 年人均 GDP( PPP) 和其他国家 5 岁以下儿童死亡概率数据均来源于世界银行数据库 ( World Bank,2012) 3. 3 2006 1994 5 5 2010 25 5 7 8 2010 181 5 70% 5
76 37 0. 75 2010 0. 623 2010 5 18. 12 23. 25 5
5 77 4 5 2010 5 4. 1 5 2010 1989 2 3 73 ~ 78 5 2 Table 2 IMR in Model Life Tables ( CD - West and CD - North) 预期寿命 ( 岁 ) 男婴死亡率 ( ) 寇尔德曼寇尔德曼 ( 西区模式 ) ( 北区模式 ) 女婴死亡率 ( ) 寇尔德曼寇尔德曼 ( 西区模式 ) ( 北区模式 ) 73 16. 52 20. 90 21. 75 24. 65 74 14. 37 18. 89 19. 33 22. 45 75 12. 40 17. 00 17. 07 20. 36 76 10. 88 15. 46 15. 25 18. 60 77 9. 55 14. 06 13. 63 16. 99 78 8. 46 12. 81 12. 24 15. 52 数据来源 : United Nations Population Division. 2010. CD Model Life Table. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. United Nations Population Division. 3 5 Table 3 Under - five Mortality Rate in Model Life Tables ( CD - West and CD - North) 预期寿命 ( 岁 ) 男孩死亡概率 ( ) 寇尔德曼寇尔德曼 ( 西区模式 ) ( 北区模式 ) 女孩死亡概率 ( ) 寇尔德曼寇尔德曼 ( 西区模式 ) ( 北区模式 ) 73 18. 81 25. 44 26. 17 32. 20 74 16. 28 22. 90 23. 15 29. 13 75 13. 97 20. 53 20. 33 26. 25 76 12. 23 18. 70 18. 15 24. 01 77 10. 72 17. 04 16. 22 21. 98 78 9. 49 15. 56 14. 58 20. 17 数据来源 : United Nations Population Division. 2010. CD Model Life Table. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. United Nations Population Division.
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