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1 Vol. 37 No. 2 March Population Research % Infant Mortality Reported in the 2010 Census Bias and Adjustment Hong Rongqing Zeng Xianxin Abstract Infant mortality has an important place in mortality research which is the beginning of the mortality force changes by age and which also affects later - life mortality change. Analysis of the past censuses demonstrates that a large gap exists between the census - reported infant mortality rate and the actual rate as a result of underreporting. By analyzing the relation between infant mortality and economic development of 174 countries of the world comparing census data with health statistics and examining provincial variations in infant mortality is found that there is significant underreporting in infant mortality in the 6th census. Since errors in the reported mortality of the population aged 1-4 are relatively small we first adjust it by areas then adjust infant mortality according to the steady relation between infant mortality and mortality of the population aged 1-4. The adjusted national infant mortality rate stood at in 2000 implying that underreporting rate of the infant mortality in the 6th census is about 78%. Keywords Infant Mortality Underreporting Population Census Authors Huang Rongqing is Professor and Zeng Xianxin is Associated Professor Labor Economics School Capital University of Economics and Business Beijing zengxx@ cueb. edu. cn

2 % Table 1 Infant Mortality Rate by Province,China,2000 and 2010 地区 ( 1) 2000( 2) 合计男性女性合计男性女性合计男性女性北京天津河北山西内蒙古辽宁吉林黑龙江上海江苏浙江安徽福建江西山东河南湖北湖南广东广西海南重庆四川贵州云南西藏陕西甘肃青海宁夏新疆资料来源 : 2010 年为六普数据,2000 年各地区的婴儿死亡率由于其数据来源不同,2000( 1) 是根据公布在全国的五普资料中有关地区的数据计算的结果 ; 2000( 2) 是根据各省 ( 直辖市自治区 ) 公布的五普有关数据计算的结果

3 % GDP GDP GDP 95% log 1000 IMR = A + B log GDP /P A = B = R 2 = S = Figure 1 GDP Correlation between GDP per Capital and Infant Mortality 数据来源 : 美国国家统计局网站, 网址 : http: / /www. census. gov / 年全国人口普查资料 ( 全国卷 ) 和 2010 年全国人口普查资料 ( 全国卷 ) 中都公布了全国各地区的人口和死亡人口 ( 5 岁组 ), 据此算出的各地区的婴儿死亡率严格来说只是估计的婴儿死亡率, 和各地区人口普查资料直接提供的普查前 1 年内的平均人口算出的婴儿死亡率有较大差别

4 GDP Table 2 Number of Counties Where No Infant GDP Deaths Reported in the 2010 Census 90% 地区 GDP 6020ppp $ 单位数男女男女北京天津河北 GDP 6020 ppp $ 95% 山西内蒙古辽宁 GDP ppp $ 吉林 GDP 黑龙江 ppp $ 4 上海江苏浙江安徽福建江西 % 山东河南湖北湖南 GDP 2 广东广西海南重庆四川贵州云南西藏陕西甘肃青海宁夏新疆合计数据来源 : 根据国务院第六次人口普查办公室, 提供分县死亡汇总数据汇总得到 % 128

5 Table 3 Survival Time Distribution of Infant Deaths 美国中国月死亡人数 % 死亡人数 % 0 ~ ~ ~ % 3 ~ ~ ~ % 6 ~ ~ ~ % 9 ~ ~ ~ 合计资料来源 : 美国的数据取自 ( 美 ) 蒋庆琅. 寿命表及其应用. 方积乾译, 上海翻译出版公司,1984,90; 中国的数据又国务院第六次人口普查办公室提供 Table 4 Neonatal Mortality Rate and Infant Mortality Rage in the Monitored Areas 年份新生儿 ( ) 婴儿 ( ) 比例数据来源 : 卫生部卫生统计信息中心 ( www moh. gov. cn) %

6 % % ~ 70% 50% ~ ~ Table 5 The Fraction of The Last Age Interval of Life and WHO 5 The Average Survival Time by Level of Infancy Mortality IMR( ) 终寿区间成数平均存活 ( 月 ) < ~ WHO 40 ~ > WHO WHO ~ 也有学者认为, 婴儿死亡与新生儿死亡之比是一种曲线关系 : 随着婴儿死亡率的下降, 新生儿死亡比先上升至峰值 ( 大致位置, 新生儿死亡比为 % ), 后下降至谷底 ( 大致位置, 新生儿死亡比为 % ), 再上升 ( 叶烨等, 2009)

7 Table 6 Infant Mortality Rate and Average Survival Time by Province 岁死亡人口婴儿死亡率 ( ) 平均存活 ( 月 ) 终寿区间成数北京天津河北山西内蒙古辽宁吉林黑龙江上海江苏浙江安徽福建江西山东河南湖北湖南广东广西海南重庆四川贵州云南西藏陕西甘肃青海宁夏新疆全国

8 Figure 2 Infant Mortality Rate and the Average Survival Time by Province M William M Mason ~ 1987 M 1992 Dudley Poston Figure 3A 3A CD The Ratio of the Mortality of the Population Aged 1-4 to the Infant Mortality Rate ( CD Model,Male) Figure 3B 3B CD The Ratio of the Mortality of the Population Aged 1-4 to the Infant Mortality Rate ( CD Model,Female)

9 2 11 Figure 3C 3C UN The Ratio of the Mortality of the Populaition Aged 1-4 to the Infant Mortality Rate ( UN Model,Male) Figure 3D 3D UN The Ratio of the Mortality of the Population Aged 1-4 to the Infant Mortality Rate ( UN Model,Female) ~ 4 x Weibull ln - ln l x = ln b + c ln x IMR l 1 = 1 - IMR = exp - b b = - ln 1 - IMR 1 WHO IMR < 20 a 0 = L 0 = l a l 1 = 1 - IMR a 0 IMR 2 b 2 c b c

10 Q1 = 1 - l 5 /l 1 = 1 - exp - b5 c /exp - b 1 ~ 20 a 0 = b ~ c 0. 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ 40 a 0 = b ~ c ~ Table 7 Infant Mortality Rate and Mortality Rate of the Population Aged 地区婴儿死亡率 ( ) 幼儿死亡概率 ( ) 比值合计男性女性合计男性女性合计男性女性全国北京天津河北山西内蒙古辽宁吉林黑龙江上海江苏浙江安徽福建江西山东河南湖北湖南广东广西海南重庆四川贵州云南西藏陕西甘肃青海宁夏新疆

11 ~ ~ Table 8 8 Adjustment of Infant Mortality Rate by Province 地区人均报告幼儿死亡概率 ( ) 修正幼儿死亡概率 ( ) GDP 合计男性女性合计男性女性上海天津北京江苏浙江内蒙古广东辽宁山东福建吉林河北湖北重庆陕西黑龙江宁夏山西新疆河南湖南青海海南江西四川广西安徽西藏甘肃云南贵州 ~

12 CD UN GDP 2 28 GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP % 67% 77% 9 Table 9 9 The Ratio of Mortality of the Population aged 1-4 to Infant Mortality 幼儿死亡概率 ( ) < 2 2 ~ 5 5 ~ 8 8 ~ 10 > 10 比值 GDP GDP

13 % 10 Table 10 Reported and Adjusted Infant Mortality Rates 地区报告婴儿死亡率修正的婴儿死亡率合计男性女性合计男性女性北京天津河北山西内蒙古辽宁吉林黑龙江上海江苏浙江安徽福建江西山东河南湖北湖南广东广西海南重庆四川贵州云南西藏陕西甘肃青海宁夏新疆 /References 1 ( 美 ) 蒋庆琅. 寿命表及其应用. 上海翻译出版公司出版,1984

14 16 37 C. L. Chiang The Lifetable and Its Application. Shanghai Translation Publishing House, 周有尚, 饶克勤, 张德英. 中国婴儿死亡率分析. 中国人口科学,1989; 3: Zhou Youshang,Rao Keqin and Zhang Deying The Analysis of Chinese Infant Mortality. Chinese Journal of Population Science 3: ( 美 ) 威廉姆 M 马森, 威廉姆雷夫利, 黑若明奥诺. 当代中国的婴儿死亡率, : 生育节育抽样调查数据的评价. 翟振武主编. 人口数据分析方法及其应用. 外文出版社,1992: William M Mason,William Lavely and Hiromi Ono Chinese Infant Mortality : The Data Appraisal of the Sample Survey on Fertility and Birth Control. Zhai Zhenwu. Analytical Methods for Demographic Data and Applications. Foreign Language Press 达德利鲍思顿. 中国婴儿死亡率模式. 翟振武主编. 人口数据分析方法及其应用. 外文出版社,1992: Dudley Poston,1992. The Infant Mortality Pattern in China. Zhai Zhenwu. Analytical Methods for Demographic Data and Applications. Foreign Language Press : 叶烨, 王洪源, 纪颖. 婴儿死亡率与新生儿死亡比的关系. 中国妇幼保健,2009 : YeYe. Wang Hongyuan and Ji Ying Relationship between Infant Mortality Rate and Neonatal Death Ratio. Child Health Care of China: ( 日 ) 国立社会保障人口问题研究所. 人口统计资料集. 2005,72 ( Japan) National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,2005. Demographic Data 72 7 中国新闻网 , 网址 : http: / /www. chinanews. com / China News. http: / / www. chinanews. com /

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the