( 2010) [3][4][5] : 1. OK ) ) ( ) ) ( ) ( ( ( 2006) 3. : ( ( ( [6] ) ) ; ; [7] 2. ; [8] ; [2]

2011 6 30 201701 30 30 CPI C913.3;D917 A 1009-4997 2011 06-0085-13 60 1949 1978 ; 1979 : 20 ( 2009) [1] 30 :2011-11-07 : 1976- : 10YJC840082 2010-85 -

2011 6 30 ( 2010) [3][4][5] : 1. OK ) ) ( ) ) ( ) ( ( ( 2006) 3. : ( ( ( [6] ) ) ; ; [7] 2. ; [8] ; [2] 20 80-86 -

2011 6 [16] [17] [9] [10][11] :(1) : ;(2) (1) (3) : [12] (2)? (3) : : : : CPI : [13] [14] ; [15] ; 1. : (1) - 87 -

2011 6 1 25 18 18 25 (%) (%) 1997 526312 199212 (2) 30446 168766 37.85 5.78 1998 528301 208076 33612 174464 39.39 6.36 1999 602380 221153 40014 181139 36.71 6.64 2000 639814 220981 41709 179272 34.54 6.52 2001 746328 253465 49883 203582 33.96 6.68 2002 701858 217909 50030 167879 31.05 7.13 2003 742261 231715 58870 172845 31.22 7.93 2004 764441 248834 70086 2005 842545 285801 82692 178748 203109 32.55 33.92 9.17 9.81 2006 889042 303631 83697 219934 2007 931745 316298 87506 228792 34.15 33.95 9.41 9.39 2008 322061 88891 233170 31.97 8.82 2009 996666 302023 77604 224419 30.30 ; 7.79 (2) 1 : [18] 2 ( 2. 2010) : 30? ; [19][20] (18 ) 18? (1)? 30 18 9.81% 1 18-88 - (1) ( )?

2011 6 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 46.5 52.7 77.4 90.5 89.0 65.0 ( ) 1982 100.7 73.6 57.0 1983 130.4 59.3 0.0 (3) 1984 129.9 49.3 37.9 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 124.7 149.9 171.1 205.5 258.5 29.4 30.8 36.4 48.7 23.9 22.0 23.7 30.3 51.2 50.9 52.2 74.5 175.0 40.3 40.3 42.4 56.4 98.7 1 = / 1990 255.1 50.8 55.7 33.8 193.9 110.7 1991 250.5 43.8 29.6 30.0 204.3 126.0 1992 260.4 42.1 27.1 28.2 135.1 92.1 (4) 1993 288.1 38.0 28.2 26.8 136.4 102.3 CPI 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 330.0 375.3 434.1 427.8 433.7 45.5 44.9 54.4 42.6 42.3 31.8 31.4 36.1 29.4 32.3 32.1 31.8 39.3 29.2 32.3 138.6 139.6 130.8 130.5 159.2 108.4 111.5 104.5 94.8 101.4 (Consumer Price Index) 1960 2005 1999 452.5 47.9 35.7 37.0 178.8 2000 422.6 50.5 37.4 37.9 287.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 418.8 399.5 397.0 390.3 58.5 54.6 57.4 58.8 43.9 41.1 40.3 43.0 44.7 45.4 43.4 47.1 349.3 337.6 340.0 363.0 142.5 154.3 [21] 3. 2005 394.7 64.4 44.5 50.1 355.5 160.3 2006 394.4 67.6 44.8 51.0 354.0 159.6 2007 420.0 70.5 45.9 53.8 363.9 182.3 2008 473.5 75.9 47.6 56.5 367.8 180.8 2009 501.1 74.7 47.4 56.2 418.1 183.4 (1) GDP 1 2 2 GDP GDP ( ) ( ) (2) ( ) (Engel's Coefficient) ( 2006; 2005) GDP GDP - 89 -

2011 6 GDP 32 GDP GDP 30 1978 46.5 (2) 2009 ( 501.1 10 ) :(1)1986 1989 ; (2)1992 1996 ;(3)2007 (CPI ) (3) ( ) 1. ; Pearson ( ) ( 3 CPI ) (4) ( ) 1 = ( )/ ( ) (5) ( ) 1 20 1922 (6) ( ) CPI CPI 30 2 30-90 -

2011 6 1.947(**) 1 /.889(**).985(**) 1 1 3 (OLS) OLS 3 3? t R 2 R 2 adj CPI Pearson CPI / GDP ( 100 GDP.770(**).890(**).932(**) 1.810(**).921(**).956(**).996(**) 1 (.831(**).935(**).966(**).991(**).999(**) 1 -.871(**) -.955(**) -.971(**) -.869(**) -.904(**) -.919(**) 1.859(**).943(**).965(**).986(**).995(**).997(**) -.919(**) 1.855(**).940(**).961(**).988(**).995(**).996(**) -.907(**).999(**) 1 -.806(**) -.921(**) -.950(**) -.866(**) -.886(**) -.894(**).919(**) -.891(**) -.886(**) 1.732(**).839(**).854(**).841(**).864(**).870(**) -.868(**).851(**).850(**) -.739(**) 1.709(**).797(**).821(**).758(**).796(**).810(**) -.889(**).794(**).778(**) -.717(**).943(**) 1 CPI 100 -.122 -.185 -.261 -.275 -.281 -.286.293 -.287 -.258.227 -.157 -.326 1.931(**).958(**).923(**).786(**).822(**).841(**) -.901(**).848(**).849(**) -.876(**).802(**).748(**) -.050 1.137.236.317.455(**).454(**).448(*) -.379(*).418(*).408(*) -.198.640(**).675(**) -.404(*).142 1 ** P<0.01 *P<0.05-91 -

2011 6 2. t ; 1978 2009 32 4 N=32 Model Model Model Model Model Model Model Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 / - 1. ( 4 Model 1) 399** - 1. - 2. GDP - 0.672 850** 082*** 0.532-4. - 0.702 078*** - 1.509 2.032* CPI 0.074 0.611** 3.408*** 3.656*** - 1.509* 2.422*** - 0.056 0.121 (n=32) 0.965** - 0.097 0.142* 32 * 0.988** - 0.056 * 0.203* 0.202 t 1.712** 1.278*** 0.636** 0.470*** 0.958*** 0.960*** CPI 0.043* 100 0.362 CPI 1 0.144** 0.099-0. - 0. 1 452*** 407** R 2 0.996 0.943 0.972 0.984 0.708 0.710 0.536 0.918 R 2 adj 0.993 0.935 0.968 0.980 0.688 0.689 0.521 0.913 (1) 1 4 GDP( ) 2 *** p<0.001 t 0.1% ** p<0.01 1% * p<0.05 5% 3R 2 1 R 2 t R 2 adj GDP 4 R 2 Model 2 Model 3 Model 2 R 2 R 2 adj - 92 -

2011 6 (3) CPI 1 CPI t Model 3 Model7 CPI ; 1 CPI t (Model8) CPI CPI CPI CPI CPI t (2) 1 32 t 3. 5 5 Model 5 + + + + + CPI CPI 100 + CPI 1 + - 93 -

2011 6 1.? ; ; ; [22]? : 2. - 94 -

2011 6 [24] : ; [25] ( ) ( ) [23] [26] ; ; ( )??? 1997 12 : ( ) - 95 -

2011 6 3. CPI CPI CPI 13 : ; ;? ;? ; ; :? : 1 : [1]. [EB/OL].2009-04-30. [2]. [J]. CPI 2010 5. [3]. [J]. 1998 1. [4]. [J]. 1999 3. [5] 袆. [J]. 2005 5. [6]. [J]. 2005 4. - 96 -

2011 6 [7]. [J]. 2008(2):46. [J]. 2010 4. [18]. [8]. [R]. 2007 13. [J]. 2007 3. [19]. [9]. [J]. [J]. 2006(1). 2009 4. [20]. [10]. [J]. [J]. 2005(3). 2004 5. [21]Chor Foon Tang and Hooi Hooi Lean Will Inflation Increase Crime Rate? New Evidence from Bounds and [11]. [J]. 2000 4. Modified Wald TestsGlobalCrime 2007 8 4 311-323. [12]. [22]. [M].. [J]. 2010 2 144-159. 2007. [13][ ].. [M]. [23]L.J. Shrum et al. Processes and Effects in the. : 2003. Construction of Normative Consumer Beliefs. Consumer [14]. [M]. : Research 199118:755-763. 1998. [24]. [A]. [15][ ].. [M].. [C].. 2007.. : [25]. 1990. [A].. [16][ ].B.. [M]. [C].. 2007. : 2005. [26]. [M]. [17]. 2004. - 97 -