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1 Research 研究报告 Knight Frank 萊坊 Beijing Prime Office Market Report 北京甲级写字楼市场报告年第四季 PRIME OFFICE 甲级写字楼

2 2013 Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly HIGHLIGHTS Beijing s economy remained steady in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stood at 7.7% year on year, which was the same as in Investment in real estate rose by 10.5% year on year. In particular, investment in offices increased by 59%. The total floor area of new properties sold in 2013 went down 2.1% year on year. Sales of offices, in particular, increased by 25.4%, showing a stronger growth compared to other property types. Three office projects, namely World Profit Center in Lufthansa, Fortune Plaza III in CBD and Ocean International Center II outside of East Fourth Ring Road, were launched in the fourth quarter, providing a total of 265,000 sqm of Grade-A office space. The launch of these office projects pushed up the market vacancy rate to 5.0%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The average rent edged down another 0.6% to RMB382 per sqm per month in the fourth quarter, or a drop of 3.6% year on year. fourth quarter. Outlook Uncertainties in the global economy are set to sustain. China is facing tough challenges during the economic structure adjustment process. Beijing s economy is expected to maintain the current growth pace in Domestic firms will continue to play a major role in the office leasing market. Meanwhile, office demand from the energy, e-commerce and IT industries will remain strong. In the first quarter of 2014, National Cultural Creative Industry Center, West District, located in YaAo Area, is expected to be launched, adding 52,000 sqm of space to the market. The total new supply of Grade-A offices in 2014 in Beijing is anticipated to reach around 300,000 sqm, which is quite a low level. Therefore, the market vacancy rate is expected to remain at a low level of around 5% and rents will remain flat. Three new office buildings were launched in the fourth quarter, pushing up the average vacancy rate and dragging down market rental levels. Due to limited supply in 2014, the average rent is expected to remain flat. The Beijing Grade-A office price index rose 0.6% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter, or up 18.4% year on year in Some purchasing power shifted to the office market due to purchasing limit policies in the residential market. Furthermore, high-rising housing prices helped to lift people s expectations on office investment. With price continuing rising while rents declining, capital yields dropped 0.1 percentage point to 6.1% in the 2

3 KnightFrank.com.cn MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS The economy in Beijing showed steady growth. Online shopping continued fast growth trend. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Beijing reached RMB1,950 billion in 2013, an increase of 7.7% year on year, which was the same as in Fixed asset investment reached RMB703.2 billion in 2013 the annual, up 8.8% year on year. The growth rate slowed down by 0.5 percentage point compared to Investment in real estate reached RMB348.3 billion, up 10.5% year on year. In particular, investment in offices rose 59% to RMB61.2 billion. The total area of new properties sold reached 19 million sqm, dropped 2.1% year on year. Sales of offices, in particular, reached 3.18 million sqm, an increase of 25.4%. Retail sales went up 8.7% year on year to RMB837.5billion in 2013, slowing down by 2.9 percentage points compared to Online shopping continued with a fast growth pace. E-commerce sales of middle to large retail firms reached RMB92.7 billion, an increase of 44.3% year on year, accounting for over 11% of the total retail sales in Beijing in In 2014, uncertainties in the global economy are set to sustain. China is facing tough challenges during the economic structure adjustment process. Beijing s economy is expected to maintain with the current growth pace in Economic indicators in Beijing, 2013 Economic indicator Figure YoY change (%) GDP RMB1,950 billion 7.7% Fixed asset investment RMB703.2billion 8.8% Real estate investment RMB348.3 billion 10.5% Import and export value US$429.1 billion 5.1% Utilised FDI US$8.5 billion 6% Consumer Price Index (CPI) (2012=100) Source: Beijing Statistics Bureau / Knight Frank 3

4 2013 Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SUPPLY AND DEMAND Three new Grade-A office buildings entered the market in the fourth quarter in Beijing, providing 265,000 sqm of space, pushing up the average vacancy rate by 1.1 percentage points to 5.0%. Beijing Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy Supply(Left) Take-up (Left) Vacancy rate(right) 1,500 '000 sqm 1, % 20% 15% 10% 300 5% F 0% Source: Knight Frank Three office projects, namely World Profit Center in Lufthansa, Fortune Plaza III in CBD and Ocean International Center II outside of East Fourth Ring Road, were launched in the fourth quarter, providing a total of 265,000 sqm of Grade-A office space. Around 50-60% of space in the three new projects was leased, with rents ranging from RMB300 to RMB400 per sqm per month, relatively low compared to the market levels, but they are expected to rise along with the growth of the occupancy rates. The launch of the three office projects in the fourth quarter pushed up the market vacancy rate to 5.0%, up 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. In the Financial Street area, the occupancy rate remained at nearly 100% in the third quarter. In the CBD area, the vacancy rate rose 2.8 percentage points to 6.7%. While in the East Second Ring Road area, the vacancy rate dropped by 2.5 percentage points to 2.7%. In the Lufthansa and Zhongguancun areas, vacancy rates increased 3.0 and 2.4 percentage points to 6.0% and 4.4% respectively. Domestic firms continued to play a major role in the office leasing market. Meanwhile, office demand from the energy, e-commerce and IT industries remained strong. The new supply of Grade-A offices in Beijing is anticipated to be around 300,000 sqm in 2014, which is quite low. Therefore, market vacancy rate is expected to remain at a low level of around 5%. 4

5 KnightFrank.com.cn RENT Due to new supplies entering the market, the average rental level of Beijing s Grade-A office fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter. Beijing Grade-A office rental index 2003 = Source: Knight Frank The average rent of Beijing s Grade-A offices fell another 0.6% to RMB382 per sqm per month in the fourth quarter. The average rent in the Central Business District (CBD) and Lufthansa area dropped 1.4% and 1.9% to RMB420 and RMB315 per sqm per month respectively. Rents in the East Second Ring Road area dropped by 1.6% to RMB360 per sqm per month. Rents in other areas did not see significant changes. The average rent started to go down in the second quarter of 2013, dropping 3.6% over the year. Due to limited supply in 2014, the vacancy rate is expected to remain low and rents will remain flat. Grade-A office market indicators, 2013 Submarket Rent (RMB/ sqm/ month) % change (QoQ) Vacancy Rate Vacancy rate percentage points change (QoQ) CBD % 6.7% 2.8 Lufthansa % 6.0% 3.0 Beijing Financial Street % 0.0% 0.0 East Second Ring Road % 2.7% 2.5 Zhongguancun % 4.4% 2.4 Source: Knight Frank 5

6 2013 Beijing PRIME OFFICES Quarterly SALES AND INVESTMENT Beijing s Grade-A office price index rose 0.6% in the fourth quarter, or a surge of 18.4% year on year. Beijing Grade-A office price index 2008 = Source: Knight Frank The Beijing Grade-A office price index rose 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2013, which is the 18th straight quarterly growth since the third quarter of The index increased by 18.4% year on year in Some purchasing power shifted to the office market due to purchasing limit policies in the residential market. Furthermore, high-rising housing prices helped to lift people s expectations on office investment. Capital yields in the Grade-A office market showed a downward trend with a rental decline and price growth. In the fourth quarter, capital yields dropped another 0.1 percentage point to 6.1%. In the en-bloc sales market, Gaohe Capital paid RMB1.488 billion for Danyang Tower which is located in South Third Ring. Danyang Tower had a total gross floor area (GFA) of 40,261 sqm and its average transaction price was RMB36,959 per sqm. 6

7 KnightFrank.com.cn Selected office leasing transactions, 2013 Submarket Building Area (sqm) Tenant CBD Fortune Plaza III 5,100 CDH Fund CBD Fortune Plaza III 7,700 HSBC CBD IFC 178 Volkswagen CBD World Trade Center II 939 Philip Morris Source: Knight Frank Selected office sales transactions, 2013 District Building Area (sqm) Price (RMB million) Price (RMB/sqm) Dongcheng Galaxy SOHO ,895 Chaoyang Danyang Tower 40,261 1,448 36,959 Fengtai NOBEL Center ,125 Yizhuang Heyu Commercial Center ,706 Source: Holdways / Knight Frank 7

8 年第四季度 Beijing 北京甲级写字楼 PRIME OFFICES Quarterly 季刊焦点北京市经济运行保持平稳,2013 年全年地区生产总值同比增长 7.7%, 与 2012 年持平房地产开发投资同比增长 10.5%, 其中, 写字楼投资同比增长 59% 全市新建商品房销售面积同比下降 2.1%, 其中, 写字楼销售面积同比增长 25.4% 写字楼市场表现较为活跃 2013 年第四季度, 北京甲级写字楼市场有三个项目交付, 分别为位于燕莎的润士中心位于 CBD 的财富中心三期和位于东四环外的远洋国际中心二期, 共为市场提供 26.5 万平方米的甲级写字楼面积由于新增供应集中入市, 北京甲级写字楼的空置率上升了 1.1 个百分点到 5.0% 第四季度北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金延续下跌态势, 在季内小幅下调 0.6 个百分点至每月每平方米人民币 382 元从 2013 年全年来看, 市场租金下降 3.6% 未来展望基于国内外形势仍然复杂, 经济发展中的不确定性因素较多, 中国经济进行调结构转方式的任务还很艰巨, 预计 2014 年北京市经济增速保持平稳内资企业在北京写字楼租赁市场中继续扮演着重要角色, 同时, 能源电子商务以及信息科技行业的租赁需求较为强劲 2014 年一季度, 位于亚奥商圈的奥北文化创意园西区有望进入市场, 增加 52,000 平方米的甲级写字楼面积 2014 年全年北京甲级写字楼供应量预计略超过 30 万平方米市场供应量持续偏低, 市场空置率预计将保持在 5% 左右的低位, 基于此, 预计北京甲级写字楼租金水平在 2014 年将保持平稳四季度北京甲级写字楼市场由于三个项目集中入市, 租金小幅下探, 市场空置率上升由于 2014 年新增供应量继续偏低, 预计租金水平保持平稳写字楼交易价格持续上涨, 第四季度按季上调 0.6%, 较去年大幅上涨 18.4% 由于政府对住宅市场实行限购, 导致部分购买力转移到写字楼市场同时, 北京住宅市场的强劲增长也提升了投资者对写字楼投资增值的预期租金水平的下滑和售价的上涨致使写字楼平均收益率继续下滑 0.1 个百分点至 6.1% 8

9 KnightFrank.com.cn 宏观经济北京经济运行总体平稳, 网络消费快速增长 2013 年, 北京市实现地区生产总值人民币 19,500.6 亿元, 同比增长 7.7%, 增幅与 2012 年持平 2013 年, 全市完成社会固定资产投资人民币 7,032.2 亿元, 同比增长 8.8%, 增长较 2012 年进一步放缓 0.5 个百分点全市完成房地产开发投资人民币 3,483.4 亿元, 同比增长 10.5%, 其中, 写字楼投资人民币亿元, 同比增长 59%, 增长较快新建商品房销售面积 1,903.1 万平方米, 同比下降 2.1%, 其中, 写字楼销售面积万平方米, 同比增长 25.4% 全年实现社会消费品零售额人民币 8,375.1 亿元, 同比增长 8.7%, 增速较 2012 年进一步放缓 2.9 个百分点网络消费表现依旧活跃, 北京限额以上批发零售企业实现网上零售额人民币亿元, 同比增长 44.3%, 占社会消费品零售额的比重超过 11% 2014 年, 国内外形势仍然复杂, 中国经济进行调结构转方式的任务还很艰巨, 预计北京市经济增速将继续保持当前水平 Si 北京主要经济指标,2013 年经济指标数值同比增长 (%) 地区生产总值人民币 19,500.6 亿元 7.7% 固定资产投资人民币 7,032.2 亿元 8.8% 房地产开发投资人民币 3,483.4 亿元 10.5% 进出口总额 4,291 亿美元 5.1% 实际利用外资 85.2 亿美元 6% 居民消费价格指数 (2012 年 =100) 数据来源 : 北京市统计局 / 莱坊 9

10 2013 年第四季度北京甲级写字楼季刊供应与需求第四季度北京三个甲级写字楼北京甲级写字楼供应吸纳和空置率项目共提供 26.5 万平方米办公面积, 市场平均空置率上升 1.1 个百分点至 5.0% 1,500 1,200 供应 ( 左轴 ) 净吸纳 ( 左轴 ) 空置率 ( 右轴 ) '000 平方米 25% 20% % % 300 5% F 0% 数据来源 : 莱坊第四季度, 北京甲级写字楼市场有三个项目交付, 分别为位于燕莎的润士中心位于 CBD 的财富中心三期和位于东四环外的远洋国际中心二期, 共为市内资企业在北京写字楼租赁市场中继续扮演着重要角色, 同时, 能源电子商务以及信息科技行业的租赁需求较为强劲场提供 26.5 万平方米的甲级写字楼面积目前这三个项目的签约率在 50-60% 左右租金水平在每月每平米人民币元左右, 较目前项目预计 2014 年市场新增供应量略超过 30 万平方米, 市场供应偏低, 空置率继续保持在 5% 左右的低位所在地的市场价格偏低, 但随着入住率的逐步提升, 租金水平也将随之提升由于三个新项目集中入市, 北京甲级写字楼市场空置率上调 1.1 个百分点至升至 5.0% 分区域来看, 四季度金融街区域的写字楼持续满租中央商务区写字楼空置率上升 2.8 个百分点至 6.7%, 东二环区域下降 2.5 个百分点至 2.7% 燕莎和中关村区域的写字楼空置率分别上升 3.0 和 2.4 个百分点至 6.0% 和 4.4% 10

11 KnightFrank.com.cn 租金由于新项目集中入市, 第四季度北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金小幅下跌 0.6% 165 北京甲级写字楼租金指数 2003 年第一季度 = 数据来源 : 莱坊第四季度北京甲级写字楼市场平均租金延续下跌态势, 在季内小幅下调 0.6% 至每月每平方米人民币 382 元中央商务区和燕莎的租金水平分别下降了 1.4% 和 1.9% 至每月每平方米人民币从 2013 年全年来看, 二季度开始写字楼租金开始下滑, 全年累积下降 3.6% 然而, 由于 2014 年市场供应有限, 空置率水平预计将保持较低水平, 预计租金保持平稳 420 元和 315 元, 东二环下降了 1.6% 至每月每平方米 360 元, 其他区域租金水平变化不大甲级写字楼主要市场指标, 2013 年第四季度商圈租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 月 ) 环比变幅空置率环比变幅中央商务区 % 6.7% 2.8 燕莎 % 6.0% 3.0 金融街 % 0.0% 0.0 东二环 % 2.7% 2.5 中关村 % 4.4% 2.4 数据来源 : 莱坊 11

12 2013 年第四季度北京甲级写字楼季刊销售与投资 2013 年四季度, 北京甲级写字楼价格环比上涨 0.6%,2013 全年上涨 18.4% 北京甲级写字楼价格指数 2008 年第一季度 = 数据来源 : 莱坊第四季度, 北京甲级写字楼价格指数环比上涨 0.6%, 这是继 2009 年第三季度以来连续第 18 个季度的增长 2013 年全年北京甲级写字楼价格指由于北京写字楼市场平均租金持续下滑, 而写字楼交易价格持续上涨, 致使写字楼平均收益率继续下降 0.1 个百分点至 6.1% 数上涨 18.4% 写字楼价格指数的上涨一方面因为政府对住宅市场实行限购, 导致部分购买力转移到写字楼市场另外, 北京住宅市场的强劲增长也提升了投资者对写字楼投资增值的预期在大宗交易方面, 高和资本以人民币亿元购买了位于南三环的丹阳大厦该大厦建筑面积 40,261 平方米, 折合成交均价每平方米人民币 36,959 元 12

13 KnightFrank.com.cn 写字楼主要租赁成交, 2013 年第四季度区域项目面积 ( 平方米 ) 租户中央商务区财富中心三期 5,100 鼎晖投资中央商务区财富中心三期 7,700 汇丰银行中央商务区财源国际中心 178 大众汽车中央商务区国贸二期 939 菲利普莫里斯数据来源 : 莱坊写字楼主要买卖成交,2013 年第四季度区域项目面积 ( 平方米 ) 售价 ( 百万元人民币 ) 售价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 东城银河 SOHO ,895 朝阳丹阳大厦 40,261 1,448 36,959 丰台诺德大厦 ,000 亦庄和裕商业中心 ,706 数据来源 : 中房驰昊 / 莱坊 13

14 2013 年第四季度北京甲级写字楼季刊 Research 研究报告 Research & Consultancy Thomas Lam Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China Jingjing Zhang Associate Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Beijing Regina Yang Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Shanghai Beijing Hengky Nayoan Managing Director Shanghai Graham Zink Managing Director Guangzhou Clement Leung Executive Director 研究及咨询部林浩文董事及研究及咨询部主管, 大中华区张婧婧副董事及研究及咨询部主管, 北京杨悦晨董事及研究及咨询部主管, 上海北京何金亮董事总经理上海葛汉文董事总经理广州梁伟明执行董事 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide, including developers and investors, as well as financial and corporate institutions. All recognise the need for the provision of expert independent advice, customised to their specific needs. Our worldwide research reports are also available at KnightFrank.com. Knight Frank 2014 This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Knight Frank will not be liable for negligence, or for any direct or indirect consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this information. You should satisfy yourself about the completeness or accuracy of any information or materials. This document and the material contained in it is the property of Knight Frank and is given to you on the understanding that such material and the ideas, concepts and proposals expressed in it are the intellectual property of Knight Frank and protected by copyright. It is understood that you may not use this material or any part of it for any reason other than the evaluation of the document unless we have entered into a further agreement for its use. This document is provided to you in confidence on the understanding it is not disclosed to anyone other than to your employees who need to evaluate it. 莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商投资者金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议市场预测和顾问服务客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要浏览莱坊的全球研究报告, 请登入 KnightFrank.com 莱坊 2014 本文件及其内容只提供一般数据, 可能随时变更而不作另行通知所有图片只供展示用途本文件并不表示意图或暗示任何性质的代表或担保因使用此数据而直接或间接引致的损失或损毁, 莱坊恕不负责客户应自行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性本文件及其内容属莱坊所有, 使用者知悉其中的观点, 概念及建议均属莱坊的知识产权所有, 并受版权保护除了对上述文件作出评估外, 若非已与莱坊达成协议, 任何人不得以任何原因使用这些内容或其部分本文件在保密的情况下提供予使用者, 除参与评估此文件的人员外, 恕不得向任何人透露 14

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放

2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放研究报告 REITs 中国路 2014 年 2014 年前言房地产投资信托基金 (Real Estate Investment Trusts,REITs) 在海外早已发展成熟, 而香港政府去年也进一步准备放宽房托限制, 相比之下, 中国已经改革开放三十年, 对房托发展至今还未