GDP n i X i Y i M i x 軃 y 軃 n x 軃 = M i X i / M i i=1 n n i=1 y 軃 = M i Y i / M i i=1 n i=1 i M i x 軃 y 軃 24

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2 GDP n i X i Y i M i x 軃 y 軃 n x 軃 = M i X i / M i i=1 n n i=1 y 軃 = M i Y i / M i i=1 n i=1 i M i x 軃 y 軃 24

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12 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CNKI CEPS zgrkkx.com

13 Chinese Journal of Population Science A bimonthly No. June ABSTRACTS Urbanization as an Engine for Expanding Domestic Demand and Sustaining Economic Growth Gu Shengzu Li Hua Yi Shance 2 Urbanization plays a very important role in expanding domestic demand and promoting economic growth. This paper analyses the transformation opportunities in the post- crisis era, the background of urbanization at the present stage, and the significance of urbanization for China s economic development. In particulary, this paper argues balanced development of large, medium- sized and small cities and towns, suggests new ways of financing, and discusses the importance of providing citizenship to migrant workers. The Explanation for Urbanization Fluctuation in China The Impulsion of Industrialization Fluctuation and Servicization Fluctuation Zhu Yingming 11 By using trend- eliminating method, this paper measures urbanization fluctuation, industrialization fluctuation, and servicization fluctuation in China, and briefly analyses the characteristics of these fluctuations. The results suggest that urbanization fluctuation could be divided into six developing stages in China. Industrialization fluctuation is the most violent one, servicization fluctuation is the mildest, and urbanization fluctuation is in- between. Urbanization fluctuation lags behind servicization fluctuation, and servicization fluctuation lags behind industrialization fluctuation. Urbanization fluctuation mainly results from impulsion itself, while there is fewer effect of industrialization impulsion and servicization impulsion. The curves of impulse response of urbanization fluctuation to industrialization fluctuation and servicization fluctuation are respectively obvious sine waves, but there are obvious differences between time lags of impulse response and strength of impulsion.the effect of industrialization fluctuation on urbanization fluctuation is significantly negative, while the effect of servicization fluctuation on urbanization fluctuation is significantly positive. The Evolution of Gravity Centers for Inter-Provincial Migration in China s Reform Era Wang Guixin Xu Li 23 Based on a new perspective of gravity center for population movements, this paper discusses the patterns and changes of regional inter- provincial migration in China in the period of reform and opening up. By examining the relationships between gravity centers of population migration and gravity centers of population, together with the gravity economic centers, we find a close linkage between relative population distribution, population migration and regional economic development. Since the beginning of reform and opening up, the inter- provincial migration has played an important role in balancing population and economy, as well as coordinating regional development. Thus we come to the conclusion that migration from west to east is still an effective way to achieve a balanced and coordinated development of population distribution and economy. A Study on Migration to work, Reverse Export of Capital and Transfer of Arable Land Cao Ya Chen Hao 35 By using the modified C- D model and statistical data over recent years, this paper finds that the fixed and single mode of arable land operation generates a repulsive force on the factor holders, and the contract management of arable land narrows the marginal differences of homogeneous factors. This suggests that the adjustment of the mode of agricultural land management would contribute to the optimization of factor allocation. The results of the regression analysis show that the marginal outputs of the non- homogeneous labor factors of the two departments increase year by year, but there are actually divergent trends in the output gap, which requires functional compensation of agricultural land to offset the income gap of the departments. Further analysis on the role of the factor prices indicates that adjustment for the mode of agricultural land management between the immediate and long- term benefits would be an effective way to achieve a balanced factor configuration. Estimation and Application of the Lee-Carter Model Based on Demographic Data of China Li Zhisheng Liu Hengjia 46 The main objective of this paper is to study the performance and application of the Lee- Carter Model in China. Using Chinese age- specific mortality data from 1992 to 2007, this paper estimates the Lee- Carter Model by the methods of singular value decomposition, ordinary least square, weighted least square and maximum likelihood estimation. The empirical results indicate that the weighted least square method provides the best performance, with respect to the goodness- of- fit and predictive ability. Based on the optimally estimated Lee- Carter model, the paper finally forecasts the mortality rate and expected lifetime of Chinese people in the next ten years. 111

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the