COP COP (Berlin Mandate) UNFCCC COP3* 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) 7 (1) (common but differentiated responsibilities) % (Article 3)

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1 business-as-usual, BAU 2015 COP21 2 C United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC Conference of Parties, COP COP21 New Agreement 2012 COP Kyoto Protocol 1995 COP1 COP COP17 COP20 Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, DDPP 2 legal force, legal form International Council for Science, ICSU Future Earth United nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization, UNECSO Our Common Future under Climate Change International Scientific Conference COP COP and COP21 International Panel on Climate Change, COP COP 4, World Meteorological Organization, WMO 1979 World Climate Conference 1990 business-as-usual emissions scenario 0.3 C 3 C 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development 155 UNFCCC ,5 UNFCCC COP COP 1995 COP COP21 1

2 COP COP (Berlin Mandate) UNFCCC COP3* 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) 7 (1) (common but differentiated responsibilities) % (Article 3) (2) (International Emissions Trading, Article 17); (3) (clean development mechanism; Article 12); (4) (Joint implementation, Article 6) COP (Marrakesh Accord) COP (Montreal Action Plan) (Meeting of the Parties to Kyoto Protocol, MOP) COP13* 2007 (Bali Road Map) (, shared vision) (mitigation) (adaptation) (technology) (financing) UNFCCC COP (Copenhagen Accord) IPCC 2 C COP16* 2010 (Cancun Agreement) (1) C (2) %-40% 9 (3) (Green Climate Fund) 10 (4) (Cancun Adaptation Framework) COP17* 2011 (1) 2020 ; (2) (Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, ADP) 2015 COP18* 2012 (Doha Gateway) (1) ; (2) ; (3) COP19* 2013 (Warsaw Outcomes) (1) COP (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions INDCs) (2) ( 9) (3) (Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage) (4) (REDD+) COP (Lima Call for Climate Action)(1) 2015 INDCs 2020 (2) ( ) COP Bali Action Plan Ad Hoc Working Group on Longterm Cooperative Action (AWG- LCA) UNFCCC 2012 UNFCCC (Durban Outcome) IPCC * UNFCCC UNFCCC COP 2

3 7/7-7/10 AR5 Najat Vallaud-Belkacem Segolène Royal Dr. Michel Jarraud IPCC AR C 2.5 C COP16 2 C IPCC BAU 5-6 C tipping point 12 Dr. Michel Jarraud Preserving our climate as a common good easily understood and applied by those who need it climate services 13 IPCC AR5 Our Common Future A Synthesis of the IPCC AR5 The Future of Climate Change Science Climate Change: A Challenge in Managing Risks, Conceptualizing our Future: Storylines and Scenarios of Future Climate Change A Weather-ready World Resilient Global Future Strengthening Climate Ambition in the Energy Sector A Map of the Solutions Space: Mitigation A Map of the Solutions Space: Adaptation Bridging the Carbon Gap in the Context of the Financial Crisis A New Climate for Society Aligning Climate Change Action and Sustainable Development Goals crosscutting themes climate and emission low carbon and carbon pricing climate resilient society BAU 4 C 2 C % % zero carbondeep decarbonization 14 Dr. Sandrine Bony Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, France big question dynamic view 3

4 Dr. Thomas Stocker, IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report, p78 Dr. Michael Grubb University College London, Institute of Sustainable Resources, UK GDP Dr. Shobhakar Khakal School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand 71-76% IPCC AR Dr. Fatih Birol International Energy Agency Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research-PIK, Germany cost Mitigation Adaptation Nobuo Mimura President, Ibaraki University, Japan 311 weather-ready society 4

5 Dr. Saleemul Huq International Institute for Environment and Development, UK Is adaptation science a separate science? 48% Dr. Johan Rockstrom Stockholm Resilience Center, Sweden Dr. Luis Fernandez Carril Climate Change Research Program, UNAM RockstromCarril normalize Carril Rockstrom Future Earth 15 COP21 transition pathways bold 2 C smart policies capability C 有關 UNFCCC 締約方大會, 每年會議官方文件請見 2. 相關資訊請參閱 3. 會議官方網址 4. 氣候變遷全球治理, 請參閱洪德欽 (2013) 氣候變遷與歐美政策回應專題緒論歐美研究 43(1):1-25 中央研究院歐美研究所 5. 從 COP1 到 COP15 的詳細進展可參閱曹俊漢 (2013) 全球治理與氣候變遷: 評哥本哈根會議決策機制的衝擊與對策歐美研究 43(1): 中央研究院歐美研究所 6. 包含 1972 年通過的聯合國人類與環境宣言 (Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment), 1987 年 Brundtland Commission 所出版的我們共同的未來 (Our Common Future), 及其爾後在 1992 年所促發的地球高峰會 (Earth Summit) 二十一世紀議程 (Agenda 21) 里約宣言(Rio Declaration) 及成立聯合國永續發展委員會請參閱 Kates W. Robert, Thomas M. Parris & Anthony A. Leiserowitz (2005) What is Sustainable Development? Goals, Indicators, Values, and Practice, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 47:3, 8-21, DOI: / 京都議定書官方文件請參閱 8. 植物在生長過程中通過光合作用吸收二氧化碳並釋放氧氣的過程被稱為碳匯 (carbon sink) 5

6 9. 但這些承諾的減排量都建立在如常模型, 估計只占應減少排放量的 60%( 以增溫低於 2 C 計算 ), 還有 40% 的缺口 steps/cancun_agreements/items/6132.php 年前每年 3 百億美金, 每年不低於 3 百億美金,2020 年後每年 1 千億美金 11. Doha Amendment to Kyoto Protocol, 37 國與歐盟在第一承諾期將溫室氣體減排到低於 1990 年基準 5% 以下, 在第二承諾期將降低到 1990 年水準的 18% 以下但第二承諾期和第一承諾期的國家組成上有差異 int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php; 然截至 2014 的 COP20 為止, 只有 21 國簽約, 還需要 144 國簽署使其生效 12. Tipping point 在廣義的環境變遷研究社群間具有特定的論述脈絡, 意指一個系統或系統的部分在超過某一特定閾值後, 會導致整個系統進行不可逆轉的轉變的轉淚點 2000 年初期以來有許多相關討論, 也有學者歸結出 Tipping element 的概念 Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E et al. (2008) Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 原文分別為 State of knowledge on climate change, Landscapes of our common future, Responding to climate change challenges, and Collective action and transformative solutions. 14. 全球另有深度減排計劃 (deep decarbonization pathway project, DDPP), 由聯合國秘書長潘基文及其他永續發展社群成立目前研究成員來自全球 15 個國家, 這些國家占有全球 70% 溫室氣體排放, 包含中國美國印度俄羅斯加拿大英國德國法國巴西澳洲日本韓國等原文請見 6

我國溫室氣體減量政策及措施

我國溫室氣體減量政策及措施 88 (Oct. 2003) 93 * ** *** **** 1992 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) Kaya 1. 2. 3. * ** *** **** 94 2001 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,