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1 : 3 :, Gordon (1996) Galand Gerler (1999),,, GMM,,,, : Phillips(1958),,,, 50,,, Gordon (1996), Gal Gerler (1999),,,,,,,,,,,, Calvo (1983) Gal Gerler (1999), ( ),, 3,, :100872, edu. cn 985,, 50

2 ,,,,,,,,, Lucas (1973) Sargen (1971),,, Hansen Singleon (1982) GMM () Gal Gerler (1999) GMM, Xiao e al (2008),GMM,,,,,,, (2004),,, (2005),,,,, Gordon (1996) Gal Gerler (1999), () Phillips(1958),Lipsey(1960),Samuelson Solow(1960), :,, 60, 70,Friedman (1968) Phelps(1968),, Mehra (2002), (2006) 51

3 :,, = 3 + y, y, 3,,,, Lucas(1973) Sargen (1971),,Lucas(1972),,,,,, Gordon(1996),, = K k = 1 k - k + + y +, Gordon, (),,,,,,Taylor (1980) Calvo (1983) Fuhrer and Moore (1995) Taylor (1980),,, = E + 1 +( y + y - 1 ), E + 1 Calvo (1983), = E y Fuhrer Moore (1995),,Fuhrer Moore (1995), = 015 ( ( y + y - 1 ), E + 1 ) +,,,Calvo, Gal Gerler (1999),Calvo (1983), (2004),, 52

4 , =E s,, s,= (1 - ) (1 - ) / Gal and Gerler (1999),, = f E b s, (),,,,,,,, (2003) ,,, (2004) , GDP (2000) ,GDP,, (2001),, , (2004) Scheibe Vines (2005),, Gal and Gerler,,,,,, BP HP,, Sbordone (2002), 53

5 : Gal Gerler (1999),,,, Gal Gerler (1999) Gal Gerler (1999),Calvo (1983), 1 -, :1 -, Gal Gerler (1999) Calvo (1983),,,: p 3 :, p = p (1 - ) p 3 (311) :,, = (1 - ) p F + p B (3. 2) p 3 p F, p B :, Gal and Gerler (1999),,,,, (), TMC m, MX n,tmc n = MC n P( OS ),MC, P, OS,,, mc n = mc + p + os,,,p F,, : min p F ( ) j E j = 0 ( p F - z + j ) 2 z + j + j : p F = (1 - ) ( ) j E j = 0 z + j z + j = mc n + j +, 0,, : p F = (1 - ) ( ) j E j = 0 mc n + j (313) (2004) 5 1 -,, (1 - ) j j- 1 = 1Π(1 - ) j = 0 54

6 (), p B = p (314) - 1 p p - 2 (3. 1) + 1 (3. 4), () p 3 (3. 1), p p B - p = ),: (3. 5) - p - 1 = (1 - ) ( p 3 - p - 1 ), p - p 3 =( p = 1 - [ (1 - ) ( pf - p ) + ( p B - p ) ] (316) (3. 3) (3. 5) (3. 6),, : = D mc + OS os : (1 - ) (1 - ) (1 - D = ) + + (1 - ), OS = F = + + (1 - ), + F E B = +1 + B - 1 (317) (1 - ) (1 - ) (1 - ) + + (1 - ), + + (1 - ),,,, (),: mc +1 = ky (3. 7), : = k D y + OS os + F E + B - 1 (3. 8), k D, OS, F, B,= 0, OS = 0, D, F, B, (3. 8) Gal Gerler (1999) = 0, (318),, (318) Gordon (1996),,, ( ) OS,, MC = CΠY = ( WΠP)ΠMP N, C, Y, WΠP, N, MP N,, (2004) 5,,,Roemberg and Woodford (1997),Gal e al (2001),,,,,, 55

7 : Y = A K 1 -, ( WΠP)Π( YΠN) ) = SΠ, S = WNΠ ( PY),,, mc = s, (317), : = D s + OS s + F E + B - 1 (319) Gal, Gerler and Lopez2Salido (2001),,,, +1,, :,,,,,,,,,,, : GDP GDP,,,,,,,;, CPI,, CPI, CPI,,,,GDP,GDP,, GDP GDP GDP GDP, GDP GDP GDP,GDP HP, HP,,, Gal and Gerler (1999), S 56

8 Gal Gerler (1999),,,, ( GDP) S, GDP S,S = ks Gal and Gerler (1999), log( S ) lg( S ), S S, s log( S ),log ( WNΠPY) - log( WNΠPY) ,,,,,, (),,,,,,,, + 1 R, + 1 N, + 1 F,B R F, ,,, 0, Fluri Spoerndli (1987), E ( +1 ) = k ( R - F ) (511) E ( +1 ) + 1, k = T T = 1 = 1 ( R - F ),, Theil (1952), Carlson and Parkin (1975) Carlson and Parkin (1975),,,, 57

9 :,,,, ( - a, a ), + 1, x e + 1 x e x + 1 f + 1 ( x),e ( + 1),E ( + 1 ) = E( x e + 1) x e + 1 a + 1 R,P( x e + 1 > a ) = R ; x e a + 1 F,P ( x e a ) = F ; x e + 1 [ - a, a ] + 1 N,P( - a < x e + 1 a ) = N a,carlson Parkin (1975) a = a,, a a = T = 1 T [ z = 1 1 ( ) + z 2 ( ) ]Π[ z 1 ( ) - z 2 ( ) ] z 1 ( ), z 2 ( ) (512) x e + 1, E ( + 1 ), sd ( + 1 ) ( ),z 1 ( ) = - 1 ( F ), z 2 ( ) = - 1 (1 - R ), E ( +1 ) = z 1 ( ) + z 2 ( ) z 1 ( ) - z 2 ( ) a, sd ( +1 ) = 2 a z 1 ( ) - z 2 ( ),Logisic,z 1 ( ) = ( F - 015) 12z 2 ( ) = (015 - R ) 12, (513) E ( +1 ) = R - F 1 - R - F a, sd ( +1 ) = a 3 (1 - R - F ) (514), Logisic, z 2 ( ) = log(1πr - 1) 3Π z 1 ( ) = - log (1ΠF - 1) 3Π, E ( +1 ) = log(1πf - 1) - log(1πr - 1) log(1πf - 1) + log(1πr - 1) a, sd ( +1 ) = () a log(1πf - 1) + log(1πr - 1), 1995, , 1999 : 3 3,, (2004, 2006) 58

10 :; ; :CPI,B,E - BALANCE,E - NORMAL,E - UNIFORM,E - LOGISTIC Logisic,B,,, (318) (319),: = C + K i = 0 D, i mc - i + K i = 0 OS, i os - i + F E +1 + K i = 1 B, i - i + (611) C,, K, E + 1 :,,, 1 K, 1 K,, K Scheibe Vines (2005) Gal e al (2001) K 4, AIC SC K,, K,,K, AIC SC,,,,, K= HP (611) 2 E,3 E - BALANCE, 4 E - NORMAL,5 E - UNIFORM,6 (2007) (2008),, 3, : ,, MAE RMSE TUI, K1 4,(6. 4) R , HP,, (6. 5), HP 59

11 : E - LOGISTIC ,p OLS : B E - BALANCE E - NORMAL E - UNIFORM E - LOGISTIC C ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) s ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) s ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) os ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) os ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) E ( ) ( ) ( ) R DW AIC F F P ADF ( ) ADF ,,, ADF ( p ) ADF, ADF, ADF SIC 1 2,ADF p 5 %,,, 1 2 (611) F 5 % F,, F, (2000) 60

12 , p 5 %,0166, 66 %,1 DW 2,2 DW 1, 015,,1 2 Newey2Wes,,p 2 OLS : B E - BALANCE E - NORMAL E - UNIFORM E - LOGISTIC C ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) y ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) y os ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) os ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) E R DW AIC F F P ADF ( ) ( ) ADF ,,,, (1) 1,, B E - BALANCE E - NORMAL E - UNIFORM E - LOGISTIC B,,, 1, C 0,() 61

13 : 2,,,B,, B E - UNIFORM , 1,, (317), 1, F 1,, CPI,,,, CPI,1,,, 1 (2),,Sanchez (2006),,, (3), ,, 1 2, 1,0108,p 5 %,,p 5 %,,, 2,p 5 %, :0105,p 5 %,Gal Gerler (1999), Gali Gerler,, (4) ,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,, ;,,GMM,,, 1 E - UNIFORM,, p , 5 % Gal e al (2001) (1), 62

14 ,,, (,2007),, Gordon (1996) Gal Gerler (1999),,,:, GMM GMM,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,,,, Gal Gerler (1999),2008 :: ,2,2007 :, 4,2000 :, 6,2000 :,,2001 :, 10,2004 :,7,2004 :GDP, 8,2007 :,,2004 :,,2004 ::, 11,2006 :, 3,2005 :, 9,2004 :, 9,2003 : , 2 Calvo,G. A., 1983,Saggered Prices in a Uiliy Maximizing Framework, Journal of Moneary Economics, Vol. 12. pp Carlson, J. A., Parkin J. M., 1975,Inflaion Expecaions, Economica, Vol. 42, No. 166, pp Fluri, R., Spoerndli, E., 1987,Raionaliy of ConsumersPrice Expecaions2Empirical Tess using Swiss Qualiaive Survey Daa, paper presened o 18h CIRET Conference. Fuhrer, J. C and G. R. Moore, 1995,Inflaion Persisence, Quarerly Journal of Economics, Vol. 110, No. 1. pp Friedman, M., 1968,The Role of Moneary Policy, American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 1. pp

15 : Gal, Jordi and Mark Gerler, 1999,Inflaion Dynamics : A Srucural Economeric Approach, Journal of Moneary Economics, 44 (2), Ocober, Gal, Jordi, Mark Gerler, and David L pez2salido, 2001,European Inflaion Dynamics, European Economic Review, 45 (7), 1237 Gordon, R.J., 1996,The Time2Varying NAIRU and Is Implicaions for Economic Policy, NBER Working Paper, No. 5735, Augus. Hansen, Lars Peer and Kenneh J. Singleon, 1982,Generalized Insrumenal Variables Esimaion of Nonlinear Raional Expecaions Models, Economerica, Vol. 50, No. 5, pp Lipsey, R. G., 1960,The Relaionship beween Unemploymen and he Rae of Changes of Money Wage Raes in The UK, : A Furher Analysis, Economerica, Vol. 27, No pp Lucas, Rober E., Jr., 1972,Expecaions and he Neuraliy of Money, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, pp Lucas, R. E. Jr.,1973,Some Inernaional Evidence on Oupu2Inflaion Tradeoffs, American Economic Review, Vol. 63, No. 3. pp. 326 Mehra, Y. P., 2002,Survey Measures of Expeced Inflaion : Revisiing he Issues of Predicive Conen and Raionaliy, Economic Quarerly, Vol. 88Π3, pp Phelps, E. S., 1967 (Jul.2Aug., 1968),Money2Wage Dynamics and Labor2Marke Equilibrium, Journal of Poliical Economy, Vol. 76, No. 4, Par 2 : Issues in Moneary Research, pp Phillips, A. W., 1958,The Relaion beween Unemploymen and The Rae of Changes of Money Wage Raes in The Unied Kingdom, , Economerica, Vol. 25, No pp Roemberg, Julio J. and Michael Woodford, 1997,An Opimizaion2Based Economeric Framework for he Evaluaion of Moneary Policy, NB ER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 12, pp Samuelson, P. A. and R. M. Solow, 1960,Analyical Aspecs of Ani2Inflaion Policy, American Economic Review, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp Sanchez, D. A., 2006,A New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Japan, working paper. Sargen,T.J., 1971,A Noe on he Acceleraionis Conroversy, Journal of Money, Credi and Banking, Vol. 3. pp Sbordone, A., 2002,Prices and Uni Labor Coss : A New Tes of Price Sickiness, Journal of Moneary Economics, 49, pp Scheibe,J. and D. Vines, 2005,A Phillips Curve For China, CAMA Working Paper, February. Taylor, J. B., 1980,Aggregae Dynamics and Saggered Conracs, Journal of Poliical Economy, Vol. 88, Theil, H., 1952,On The Time Shape of Economic Microvariables and The Munich Business Tes, Review of he Inernaional Saisical Insiue, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp Xiao, Zhiguo, Mari Palay, and Jun Shao, 2008,A Unied Theory for GMM Esimaion in Panel Daa Models wih Measuremen Error, Universiy of Wisconsin, working paper. Research on Ne w Keynesian Phillips Curve in China Chen Yanbin (School of Economics, Renmin Universiy of China) Absrac :This paper presens a four2facor model of New Keynesian Phillips Curve, including he demand pull inflaion, cos push inflaion, inflaion expecaion, and inflaion persisence. The new model exends Gordon s (1996) riangle model and Gal and Gerler s (2000) hybrid model, and i is heoreically complee. This paper ess he new model by using China s daa, in which he inflaion expecaion is based on he micro2survey daa. The resuls show ha he OLS esimaes of he new model are more robus han GMM esimaes. Among he four facors of inflaion, he inflaion expecaion has he mos significan effec on he inflaion, followed by inflaion persisence and he uni labor cos or he oupu gap, and he oil price shock has an insignifican effec. Key Words :New2Keynesian ; Phillips Curve ; Inflaion ; Expecaion ; Macroeconomy JEL Classificaion : E31, E41, E17 64 ( : ) ( : )

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《金融评论》投稿封面 The Choice of he Inermediae Targe of Moneary Policy in China 968 993 5 0073 85957073683550599 yqzhang@cass.org.cn MM 994Q-008Q4 VECM M M GDPCPI M M M 007 VECM JEL E5C3E58 The Choice of he Inermediae Targe