% 2 2% 5 2% 6 3% 5% - % McCallum Arseneau Woodfood ACEL Williams 6 - SGU CGW 2 7 SGU 2% 6 Friedman CGW DSGE-VAR CGW 8 % 2% SGU CGW SGU CGW 95

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1 JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCES IN CHINA Vol 6 No 5 May Ramsey Ramsey 2% Ramsey F5 A % Blanchard Friedman 2 helps Chrisonian 4 Friedman helps Taylor roger yanlong@ gmail com

2 % 2 2% 5 2% 6 3% 5% - % McCallum Arseneau Woodfood ACEL Williams 6 - SGU CGW 2 7 SGU 2% 6 Friedman CGW DSGE-VAR CGW 8 % 2% SGU CGW SGU CGW 95 2 Woodfood 3 3% 5 Ramsey % % % %28 5 9% 2 9 CI 6 % Ramsey Taylor r = p + 5y + 5 p r p CI y 2%

3 5 5 3 r K + M - + R -B - + δq K + Π 2 C X B τ W Ramsey N r C N K + M / B { = [ C -σ - σ - S n + N + S m + - η -η M ) ] } κ C -σ q C N = βe C -σ + r + q + - δ 4 M C -σ = βe { C -σ +R S + } 5 n S m C -σ = C -σ X q S X X - ) + X [ X - ) S' X - ) ] - σ η β βe C -σ 2 X { +q + X - ) S X + X } 6 C -η M Dixi Sigliz S m ) = C -σ C -σ + - βe { } 7 C = θ- /θ θ/ θ- [ dj] C j C + X + M + B + τ N W j W j W ) -ε wdj + K - B - R - q Π 3 money in uiliy 2 + MIU K + K δ K + = - δ K + X S X X - ) 3 S S = S' = max E β S 2 3 C N M K + B W 2 3 θ > j A lim T E { T q T C j = -θ } = T j [ ] C q T T A = M + B = [ -θ / -θ j dj] q T = + r τ - τ π + S n N = C -σ W 8

4 CEE SGU M / < M / > R C CEE SGU E 槇 βθ w s -ε W wn λ +s s = W ) +s s ε π w +κ +s κ = π γ w ) +κ - ε w - 槇 { W ε - - U } N +s w s π +κ λ +s = 9 κ = ) θ w βe π + π γ w ) W f 2 = - U N W槇 θ w βe π + ) π γ w ) π γ w +κ - ) ε w - 槇 W + ε N + ε 槇 W + 槇 W 槇 W ) ε f 2 + ε w - f + λ f f 2 R Y π f f 2 f = f s β Uhlig 22 θ w ε w γ w U N M = M - + v 3 θ w Uhlig - θ w W v v = v = SGU 2 f = ε ε w - W w 槇 ) W λ ε w W槇 ) N R R ) = R - R μ R μ Y y μ ) π π μ π π w ) ) SR Y π π 4 μ y μ R μ πp S R

5 5 7 τ B M g Y = Y ε f - /ε ε f / ε f - f j dj) Y M + B = M - + R - B - + j j Y 5 Y j g - τ - v + R ε f CD 994 Y j = S A K α j N -α j - ψ 8 α - α S A Uhlig Uhlig 22 j max Y j { Y - j Y j dj} 9 τ τ = θ B - - B Y j τ + S ) τ 6 Y Y j = -ε fy j ) 2 θ τ B τ 2 S τ g Y = g = θ B - - B j Y j dj g + S ) g 7 2 Y θ g g S g 6 7 = -ε / -ε f f j dj) min W N j + r r K j 2 K j N j MC A - α K α N ) = W 22 3 MC A α K α- N ) = r 23

6 Calvo 23 x x 2 s ξ CD Y = - A K α N -α - ψ /s - - θ p Y s = A K α N -α - ψ 3 槇 3 4 Ramsey = - θ p 槇 -ε f + θ p -ε f - / -ε f j 槇 - θ p Y j = C j + X j + G j Y = C + I + G -ε f = - θ p 槇 -ε f + θ p -ε f - 24 θπ - +ε f + - θ 槇 -ε f max j = K = K j dj X = X j dj N = dj W = dj E { φ = - +φ TCY +φ ε f +φ βξ φ Y +φ ε f- 槇 -ε f +φ +φ 槇 -ε f +φ } - 25 Calvo SGU x x 2 x 槇 Y = --ε f Y MC + C N K X f f 2 x x 2 B x 2 θ p βe { = 槇 -ε f Y + C C + ) σ π ε f + 槇槇 + ) --εf } x + 26 槇 = σ 槇 -εf θ p βe { C C + ) π ε f - + 槇 + ) } x x x 2 Y j = Y N j = N C j = C W j = W K j = K x x 2 X j = X j = 槇 j = 槇 g j = g ε x 2 f = ε f - x 28 Juillard 24 -ε s fdi i Ramsey ) s = - θ p 槇 V -ε f + θ p π ε f S - 29 = E { β U C N m } 3 N j Y = W j 槇 j dj = j dj Y j dj g = M g τ ζ g j dj W r q R π 槇 S n S m S A S τ S g S R 3 SGU CEE =

7 5 9 5 Y C N K X f f 2 x x 2 B M g τ ζ W r q R π 槇 ε p 6 2% S n S m S A S τ S g S R Ramsey Ramsey Ramsey Dynare 5% ε w 2 2 θ p 6 SGU Uhlig 22 θ w 64 δ 25 AR 6 2% AR 2 γ 2 45 σ 2 φ η Table Calibraion for parameers 27 3 ψ 39 α CD σ 2 25 CD α β 4 - /4 4% v 27 α 26 π 4 /4 β 99 γ 2 45 ψ 39 v 27 η 3 μ r 9 θ p 6 μ π p 5 θ w 64 μ π w - 2 δ 25 μ y 5 ε f 6 θ τ 5 3 8% ε w 2 θ g

8 ρ a z a ρ n z n ρ m z m ρ r z r ρ τ z τ 97 ρ g z g AR AR ln m = - R R - η - R 2 3 m 97 f f槇 4 /4 b 85 f 2 f槇 2 4% τ 35 F 2 S w ζ F 3 2 S % 7 μ π μ y μ R θ τ θ g 4 2% 7 % Ramsey Giannoni Woodfood Woodford 29 Benigno 3-2 μ 4% π = 5 Leeper 3-32 SGU 2 9% μ π % μ π μ y μ R Ramsey 4 Table 2 Ramsey seady sae Y 94 π p 4 2 R 8 2 C 36 Π w 4 A K MC 83 X 25 槇 2 g 33 N W 44 x 3 9 q 槇 W 44 x θ g 4 π p R

9 5 2 θ τ Uhlig θ g - 2 θ τ % 4% - 8% 8% % U U % Fig Welfare effecs of rend inflaion and oupu effecs

10 % % θ π % 8-5%θ π GD Fig 2 Welfare effecs of rend inflaion wih various mark-up and oupu effecs 8 θ π θ π 8-6% 8 θ π

11 Fig 3 rice sikiness and opimal inflaion Fig 4 rice sikiness and welfare-oupu effec of inflaion Fig 5 reference of money demand and opimal rae of inflaion

12 θ g θ τ Fig 6 The Conour beween moneary policy and opimal inflaion 7 994

5 25 994 996 4 2% 28 5 9% 7 3 3 Fig 7 The conour beween fiscal policy and opimal inflaion 8

13 % % Fig 7 The conour beween fiscal policy and opimal inflaion Fig 8 The fronier of inflaion and oupu 9 Fig 9 The fronier of inflaion and consumpion

14 Ramsey 3 Ramsey Sims 33 CGW Blanchard O Rehinking Macroeconomic olicy R IMF Lecure 2 2 Friedman M The Opimum Quaniy of Money in The Opimum Quaniy of Money and Oher Essays M Chicago IL Aldine ublishing Co helps E S Inflaion in he heory of public finance J Swedish Journal of Economics Chrisiano L J Moneary Economics Empirical Theoreical and olicy Issues R Lecures Series 29 5 Taylor J B Discreion versus policy rules in pracice J Carnegie Rocheser Conference Series on ublic olicy McCallum B T The Opimal Inflaion Rae in an Overlapping Generaions Economy wih Land M / / Barne W A Singleon K J New Approaches o Moneary Economics Cambridge Cambridge Universiy ress Arseneau D M Opimal Inflaion in an Open Economy R REEC No

15 Alig D Chrisiano L J Eichenbaum M e al Firm-Specific Capial Nominal Rigidiies and he Business Cycle R NBER No Walsh C E Using moneary policy o sabilize economic aciviy C / / Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas Ciy Financial Sabiliy and Macroeconomic olicy Jackson Hole Symposium Williams J C Heeding Deadalus Opimal Inflaion and he Zero Lower Bound R Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working aper Series 29 Schmi-Grohe S Uribe M The Opimal Rae Of Inflaion R NBER No Coibion O Gorodnichenko Y Wieland J The Opimal Inflaion Rae in he New Keynesian Models R NEBR No J Zhang Chengsi Review on he shor-erm dynamic inflaion rae J Managemen World in Chinese 4 J Bu Hui Wang Shouyang Empirical sudy of inflaion-hedging characerisics of commodiy fuures and is porfolio in China J Journal of Managemen Sciences in China in Chinese 5 J Yang Jisheng Inflaion expecaion excessive liquidiy and dynamics of China s inflaion J Economic Research Journal in Chinese 6 J Yin Bo Opimal inflaion in China s economy J China Economics Quanerly in Chinese 7 J Zhang Shiwei Zhao Dongkui Agen-based model of economy J Journal of Managemen Sciences in China in Chinese 8 J Huang Shoufeng Chen Langnan Invesigaions on he correlaionships among RMB exchange rae RMB appreciaion expecaions and foreign exchange reserves J Journal of Managemen Sciences in China in Chinese 9 Woodford M Inflaion sabilizaion and welfare J Conribuions o Macroeconomics Schmi-Grohe S Uribe M Opimal Inflaion Sabilizaion in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model M / / Schmid-Hebbel K Mishkin R Moneary olicy Under Inflaion Targeing Cenral Bank of Chile Chrisiano L J Eichenbaum M Evans C L Nominal rigidiies and he dynamic effecs of a shock o moneary policy J Journal of oliical Economy Uhlig H Moneary olicy In Europe Vs The US Wha Explains he Difference R NBER No Calvo G A Saggered prices in a uiliy-maximizing framework J Journal of Moneary Economics Juillard M Dynare User Guider R CEREMA 2 25 J Lin Xixi Gong Liuang An analysis on welfare loss of China s governmenal deb J Economic Research Journal in Chinese 26 J Wu Xueli Flucuaions of China s energy efficency Theoreical explains numerical simulaions and policy experimens J Economic Research Journal in Chinese J Xu Wei Chen Binkai Banking loans and China s economic volailiy J China Economics Quanerly in Chinese 28 J

16 Jia Junxue Guo Qingwang Marke power fical expendiure's composiion and opimal fiscal and moneary policies J Economic Research Journal in Chinese 29 Giannoni M Woodford M Opimal Inflaion Targeing Rules R NBER No Benigno rice sabiliy wih imperfec financial inegraion J Journal of Money Credi and Banking Leeper E M Equilibria under acive and passive moneary and fiscal policies J Journal of Moneary Economics Leeper E M Macro policy and inflaion An overview J Inernaional Taxaion and ublic Finance Sims C A Simple model for sudy of he deerminaion of he price level and he ineracion of moneary and fiscal policy J Economic Theory Inflaionary sabiliy and he opimal inflaion HUANG Yan-long CHEN Wei-zhong School of Economics and Managemen Tongji Universiy Shanghai 292 China Absrac This paper esablishes an opimal policy model wih he fiscal and moneary policy coordinaion and analyzes he inflaionary sabiliy and opimal rae of inflaion The resuls show ha o gain he sabiliy of inflaion policy makers need o use policy rules o promoe he change of he marke srucures preferences money demand and marke expecaion conducive o mainaining a sable inflaion The opimal rae of inflaion under he Ramsey equilibrium is zero boundary which depends on he microscopic mechanism of he marke and policy mechanisms Under he Ramsey equilibrium wih fiscal and moneary policy coordinaion he governmen can use he policy of opimal inflaion o induce real inflaion o he opimal pah and he governmen can influence he marke srucure o promoe he realizaion of opimal inflaion Our analysis found no evidence o show ha he opimal inflaion rae is 2% Key words inflaion macro policy opimal rae of inflaion Ramsey equilibrium

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