ASEAN経済共同体の現状と展望

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "ASEAN経済共同体の現状と展望"

二漆雕
4 years ago
Views:

1 4 ASEAN ASEAN AEC 1992 AFTA ASEAN AEC 80 ASEAN ASEAN AEC ASEAN ASEAN FTA ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN RCEP ASEAN 115

2 1 Association of Southeast Asian Nations: ASEAN 25 3 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Official Development Assistance: ODA Free Trade Agreement: FTA ASEAN FTA ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN 2015 ASEAN ASEAN Economic Community: AEC ASEAN AEC ASEAN 2 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN 116

3 ASEAN ASEAN GDP 44,697 31, CLMV GDP 60 ASEAN GDP CLMV 8 ASEAN GDP ADBI ASEAN GDP ASEAN GDP GDP GDP % ASEAN=100 ASEAN= , ,697 79, ,982 75, , , ,634 24, , , ,992 14, , , ,986 10, , , ,155 5, , , ,174 4, ,105 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,356 IMF, World Economic Outlook Database 2030 GDP ADBI ASEAN GDP ASEAN 4097 ASEAN 2 ASEAN

4 GDP 149% GDP GDP 20 GDP 56% ASEAN 40.7% GSP ASEAN 12.9 ASEAN 25.9 ASEAN 4-2 ASEAN 2012 DoTS GDP ASEAN 4, % 31.7% 4.6% 21.7% 4.0% 2.7% 5.5% % 12.9% 45.0% 2.7% 14.9% 7.3% 0.7% 2,276 75% 26.8% 11.8% 16.9% 3.6% 4.2% 8.7% 2,282 62% 24.7% 10.2% 17.4% 2.1% 2.4% 9.9% 1,900 22% 22.0% 15.9% 12.8% 7.9% 6.6% 7.8% % 18.9% 19.0% 21.0% 5.5% 0.6% 14.2% 1,108 71% 15.6% 11.8% 14.5% 5.0% 1.6% 17.8% 78 56% 16.9% 4.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.1% 32.6% 83 15% 45.8% 7.4% 14.8% 3.9% 14.8% 0.0% 2,972 16% 11.3% 2.3% 9.1% 1.4% 0.0% 12.2% 20,500 25% 9.9% 7.4% 15.8% 4.3% 2.3% 17.2% 4, % 6.6% 4.2% 54.1% 1.7% 2.2% 9.9% 7,986 13% 16.2% 0.0% 23.2% 7.7% 1.3% 17.8% 5,479 49% 14.4% 7.1% 30.5% 0.0% 2.2% 10.7% 15,460 10% 4.9% 4.5% 9.6% 2.7% 1.4% 0.0% IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics, 2013Q3 GDP IMF World Bank, World Development Indicators Foreign Direct Investment: FDI ,824 ASEAN 118

5 FDI CLMV FDI 1980 ASEAN FDI FDI 1980 ASEAN , , , , , , , , , ASEAN , , , , , , , , UNCTADStat ASEAN Geographical Simulation Model: GSM ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN 119

6 4-1 ASEAN 2005 GSM 2005 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN AEC ASEAN 120

7 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN 4-1 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN 2 ASEAN 1. ASEAN ASEAN 2015 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Economic Community: AEC ASEAN ASEAN Political Security Community: APSC ASEAN ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community: APSC 3 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Economic Community: AEC AEC 1990 ASEAN ASEAN Free Trade Area: AFTA standard and conformance mutual recognition ASEAN ASEAN AEC AEC AEC AEC ASEAN 3 3 AEC APSC ASCC ASEAN Initiative for ASEAN Integration: IAI ASEAN

8 4-2 ASEAN ASEAN 2009 AEC AFTA-CEPT AEC AEC ASEAN CLMV ASEAN AFTA-CEPT ASEAN ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement: ATIGA ASEAN ATIGA ASEAN Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia: ERIA ASEAN CEPT 4 ASEAN Basu Das 2012, 2013 Basu Das, et al 2013 ERIA

9 ASEAN CLMV 2.6 ASEAN ERIA 2012 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Single Window: ASW AEC National Single Window: NSW ASEAN 2008 CLMV 2012 ASW ERIA NSW NSW 7 ASW 2015 ERIA ASEAN 7 ASW 4-3 NSW ERIA 2012 NSW 4-3 AEC ASW ASEAN Initiative for ASEAN Integration: IAI 123

10 3. ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services: AFAS Mode 1 Mode 2 Mode 3 Mode 4 4 mode AEC Mode FDI Mode AFAS Mode 3 WTO/GATS packages of commitments AFAS 7 Hoekman Index 0 1 Ishido and Fukunaga 2012 ASEAN AFAS ASEAN CLMV 2013 AFAS WTO/GATS

11 ASEAN-X 2+X AFAS Mode 4 AFAS 5 6 AEC ASEAN Mutual Recognition Agreements: MRAs AEC MRAs MRA 2012 ERIA AFAS 7 AFAS(7) Ishido and Fukunaga ASEAN ASEAN Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity: MPAC MRA ASEAN ICT 2015 ASEAN 2015 Mode

12 4. ASEAN ASEAN AEC ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Investment Guarantee Agreement: AIGA ASEAN ASEAN Investment Area: AIA ASEAN ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement: ACIA ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Agreement on the Movement of Natural Persons ASEAN MPAC ASEAN 2012 ASEAN 2011 ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN AFAS MRA ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN 126

13 5. ASEAN ASEAN 7 ASEAN 2010 Brunei Action Plan: BAP ASEAN 4 AEC BAP MPAC ASEAN ASEAN Highway Network: AHN Singapore-Kunming Rail Link: SKRL ASEAN ASEAN Single Aviation Market: ASAM 1 ASEAN ASEAN UNESCAP ASEAN MPAC AH112 1,145km 60km AH km AH123 MPAC

14 4-4. ASEAN ERIA Study Team

15 3 ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Goods in Transit: AFAFGIT 5 2 AH12 393km AH15 98km MPAC 2012 AH1 379km AH2 593km AH3 93km AH ASEAN AH1 44km Asian Development Bank: ADB ADB ADB SKRL ASEAN MPAC 2020 SKRL 585km 263km MPAC

4-5. ASEAN Secretariat, SKRL Factsheet, 2007.

16 4-5. ASEAN Secretariat, SKRL Factsheet, ASEAN ASEAN Framework Agreement on the 130

17 Facilitation of Goods in Transit: AFAFGIT ASEAN 5 4 AFAFGIT AFAFGIT ASEAN Framework Agreement on Multimodal Transport: AFAMT ASEAN ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Inter-State Transport: AFAFIST AFAFGIT AFAFGIT 60 ASEAN 500 Cross Border Transport Agreement: CBTA ASEAN CBTA

18 4 ASEAN ASEAN Roadmap for Integration of Air Travel Sector : RIATS 2007 AEC ASEAN ASEAN Single Aviation Market: ASAM RIATS ASAM ASEAN ASAM ASAM ASAM EU ASEAN ASEAN ASAM 5 EU EU ASEAN 8 ASEAN

19 3 ASEAN ASEAN AEC Global Trade Analysis Project: GTAP GTAP ASEAN ASEAN 9 10 Geographical Simulation Model GSM 11 GSM Spatial Economics New Economic Geography 9 Indonesia Economic Development Corridor: IEDC National Comprehensive Development Plan: NCDP ASEAN East Asia Summit: EAS ASEAN Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia: ERIA GSM EAS ASEAN ASEAN ERIA ERIA Study Team

20 1 12 ASEAN GSM 1. ERIA 2010 EAS ERIA 2010 GSM ASEAN 4-5 ERIA 2010, Chapter GDP 0.03 point 0.32% -0.07% 0.01 point 0.14% -0.13% 0.13 point 1.19% -0.23% point 1.23% -0.38% ERIA 2010, Chapter % 0.32% 0.14% 5 ASEAN 2010 ASEAN Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity: MPAC 12 GSM ERIA 2010: Chapter 4 Kumagai et al 2008a, 2008b, 2009,

21 2. ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN 4-5 ASEAN RoRo ASEAN = MPAC ASEAN AEC ASEAN ASEAN AEC IEDC AEC IEDC AEC Umezaki and Isono

22 4-6 ASEAN 2030 GSM AEC ASEAN ASEAN AEC ASEAN 136

23 4 ASEAN AEC ASEAN AEC ASEAN AEC AEC % ASEAN AEC % ASW ASEAN ASEAN 2015 AEC CLMV ASEAN 2015 ASEAN AEC ASEAN AEC ASEAN ASEAN 14 ASEAN ASEAN AEC 14 ASEAN Kimura, et al 2011 ADB ASEAN

24 AEC ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN FTA AEC ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN Trans-Pacific Partnership: TPP ASEAN Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: RCEP

25 2012. ASEAN 2012 No ASEAN CBTA 2012 ASEAN No No ASEAN ASEAN Asian Development Bank (ADB) Connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia: Interim Report, Manila: ADB. Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) ASEAN 2030: Toward a Borderless Economic Community - Draft Highlights, Manila: ADB. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) The ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint, Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat Roadmap for an ASEAN Community: , Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity, Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat. Basu Das, Sanchita ed Achieving the ASEAN Economic Community 2015: Challenges for Member Countries & Businesses, Singapore: ISEAS. ed Enhancing ASEAN s Connectivity, Singapore: ISEAS. ; Jayant Menon; Rodolfo Severino; and Omkar Lal Shrestha, eds The ASEAN Economic Community: A Work in Progress, Manila: ADB. ERIA The Comprehensive Asia Development Plan, Jakarta: ERIA. 139

26 2012. Mid-Term Review of the Implementation of AEC Blueprint: Executive Summary, October 2012, Jakarta: ERIA. ERIA Study Team ASEAN Strategic Transport Plan : Final Report, Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat. Hoekman, B Assessing the General Agreement on Trade in Services, World Bank Discussion Paper, No.307, Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Ishido, Hikari and Yoshifumi Fukunaga (2012). Liberalization of Trade in services: Toward a Harmonized ASEAN++ FTAs, ERIA Policy Brief, No , March Kimura, Fukunari, Toshihiro Kudo and So Umezaki (2011). ASEAN-India Connectivity: A Regional Framework and Key Infrastructure Projects, in Fukunari Kimura and So Umezaki eds., ASEAN India Connectivity: The Comprehensive Asia Development Plan, Phase II, ERIA Research Project Report 2010 No.7, Jakarta: ERIA. Kumagai, Satoru; T. Gokan; I. Isono; and S. Keola 2008a. Geographical Simulation Model for ERIA: Predicting the Long-run Effects of Infrastructure Development Projects in East Asia. In Nagesh Kumar ed., International Infrastructure Development in East Asia: Towards Balanced Regional Development and Integration, ERIA Research Project Report 2007, No 2, Chiba: IDE-JETRO, pp b. Predicting the Long-run Effects of Infrastructure Development Projects in Continental South East Asia: IDE Geographical Simulation Model. ERIA Discussion Paper Series, No , December The Second Generation of Geographical Simulation Model: Predicting the Effects of Infrastructure Development by Industry. In Kitti Limsukul ed. Development of Regional Production and Logistic Networks in East Asia, ERIA Research Project Report No.4-2, Jakarta: ERIA, pp Kumagai, Satoru; K. Hayakawa; I. Isono; S. Keola; and K. Tsubota Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia, Economic Modelling, Vol.34, pp Umezaki, So, and Ikumo Isono Transport cooperation in ASEAN: Achievements and the Challenges ahead in the Run-up to the ASEAN Economic Community, unpublished manuscript. 140

The Trend of Economic Integration in East Asia 24

23 NIEs The Trend of Economic Integration in East Asia 24 25 2004 11(ASEAN) (Agreement on Trade in Goods of the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation) 2005 7 2008 4 (ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive