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2010 4 3 20 70,, 80, :, 80, 90,U, 20,,, ;; ;, ( : 100007)

1 ,, 80, :, 80, 90,U, 20,,, ;; ;, ( : ) D80 A ( 2010) ,,IPE,,, 109

2 ( IPE),( hegemonic stability theory), 20 80,, ,,,,,,,, ,, :,, ,15-22;:,, ,20-23;: :,, ,13-23,,,, :, : 1994 ;:, : ;: :( ), :1999 ;:,, ,7-29;:,, ,60-66 : 1990 IPE,, ,22-39 ::,, ,41 :,, ,68 110

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4 ( Charles Kindleberger) 1973 : , 20 60,, ( leadership ),,( hegemony),,,, : ,, 10%,,, ;,,, (Robert Gilp in) 1975, ( Stephen Krasner) 1976 Charles P. Kindleberger, The W orld in Depression, , Harmondsworth, M iddlesex: Penguin Books, ,20 60, 20 60,, R ichard Rosecrance, ed., Am eri2 can as an O rdinary Country: U. S. Foreign Policy and the Future, Ithaca: Cornell University Press,

5 IPE,,,,,, 1980, (Robert O. Keohane),,,,, 1977 (Joseph S. Nye),,,, 20 70,,,IPE (A lbert H irschman) 1945,, 35, (David A. Robert Gilp in, U. S. Power and the M ultinational Corporation: The Political Econom y of Foreign D irect In2 vestm ent, New York: Basic Books, 1975; Stephen D. Krasner, State Power and the Structure of International Trade, W orld Politics, Vol. 28, No. 3, 1976, pp Robert Keohane, The Theory of Hegemonic Stability and Changes in International Econom ic Regimes, , in O le R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson, and A lexander George, eds., Change in the International System, Boulder: W estview Press, 1980, pp Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Power and Interdependence: W orld Politics in Transi2 tion, Boston: L ittle, B rown and Company, 1977, chap ters 3 and 6 A lbert O. H irschman, N ational Power and the S tructure of Foreign Trade, Berkeley: University of Califor2 nia Press,

6 Baldwin),,20 40,,,:,,,, ;,, 20 :,,,,, (David Lake)90, ( leadership theory)( hegemony theory),,,, :, David A. Baldwin, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, The Am erican Political Science Review, Vol. 75, No. 4, 1981, p Robert Gilp in, The Rise of American Hegemony, in Patrick Karl O B rien and A rmand Clesse, eds., Two Hegem onies: B ritain and the United S tates , Burlington: A shgate, 2002, pp M ichael C. W ebb and Stephen D. view of International S tudies, Vol. 15, No. 2, 1989, pp Krasner, Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Emp irical A ssessment, Re2 David A. Lake, Leadership, Hegemony, and the International Economy: Naked Emperor or Tattered Monarch with Potential?International S tudies Q uarterly, Vol. 37, No. 3, 1993, pp

7 2010 4,,,,,,, :, 20 70,,,,70,,,,,, ,, ,,,,,, :,, 20 80,,,,,,,,,,, necessary( albeit not a sufficient), Robert Gilp in, The Political Econom y of Inter2 national Relations, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987, p a hegemon is a nec2 essary but not a sufficient condition, Robert Gilp in, Global Political Econom y: U nderstanding the International Econom ic O rder, Princeton and London: Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 94 Beth V. Yarbrough and Robert M. Yarbrough, Cooperation in the L iberalization of International Trade: After Hegemony, W hat?international O rganization, Vol. 41, No. 1, 1987, p. 16. capability willingness Stephen D. Krasner, United States Commercial and Monetary Policy: Unraveling the Paradox of External Strength and Internal W eak2 ness, in Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., B etween Power and Plenty: Foreign Econom ic Policies of Advanced Industrial S tates, Madison: The University of W isconsin Press, 1978, pp

8 ,,;,,,,,,, 1980,, 20, 1997,,,,,,,,,20 80 :, Robert Gilp in, U. S. Power and the M ultinational Corporation: The Political Econom y of Foreign D irect In2 vestm ent, New York: Basic Books, 1975, p. 43. Robert O. Keohane, Problematic Lucidity: Stephen Krasner sstate Power and the Structure of Interna2 tional Trade, W orld Politics, Vol. 50, No. 1, 1997, pp Robert O. Keohane, After Hegem ony: Cooperation and D iscord in the W orld Political Econom y, Princeton: Princeton University Press, ,,,, 2005, Robert O. Keohane, Preface to the 2005 Edition, in Robert O. Keohane, After Hegem ony: Cooperation and D iscord in the W orld Political Econom y, pp. xiii - xv 116

9 2010 4, 80,, 1982, (John Odell), , 1982, (W il2 liam Avery) (David Rapkin), (Chase - Dunn) ( George Modelski),, 1984 (A rthur Stein)19 20, :, ;,,,,,, :,, John S. Odell, U. S. International M onetary Policy: M arkets, Power, and Ideas as Sources of Change, Princeton: Princeton University Press, W illiam P. Avery and David P. Rapkin, eds., Am erica in a Changing W orld Political Econom y, New York and London: Longman, A rthur A. Stein, The Hegemon s D ilemma: Great B ritain, the United States, and the International Eco2 nom ic O rder, International O rganization, Vol. 38, No. 2, 1984, pp

10 ,,,: ( GDP),,,,,,, , :,,,,,,,,, 1976 :,; ,:, (John Conybeare),, : M ichael C. W ebb and Stephen D. Krasner, Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Emp irical A ssessment, p Robert O. Keohane, After Hegem ony: Cooperation and D iscord in the W orld Political Econom y, pp David A. Lake, Beneath the Commerce of Nations: A Theory of International Econom ic Structures, In2 ternational S tudies Quarterly, Vol. 28, No12, 1984, pp B ruce Russett, The Mysterious Case of Vanishing Hegemony; O r, Mark Twain Really Dead?Internation2 al O rganization, Vol. 39, No. 2, 1985, pp Susan Strange, The Persistent Myth of Lost Hegemony, International O rganization, Vol. 41, No. 4, 1987, pp

11 2010 4,,,,,,,,,,, (Joanne Gowa),,,,,,, (Barry Eichengreen) ,,,,19,?,,,, , 1840, 44. 2%, 1860,,,, John A. C. Conybeare, Public Goods, PrisonersD ilemmas and the International Political Economy, International S tudies Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 1, 1984, pp Charles P. Joanne Gowa, Rational Hegemons, Excludable Goods, and Small Group s: An Ep itaph for Hegemonic Sta2 Barry Eichengreen, Hegemonic Stability Theories of the International Monetary System, in R ichard N. A rthur A. Kindleberger, International Public Goods without International Government, The Am erican E2 conom ic Review, Vol. 76, No. 1, 1986, pp bility Theory?W orld Politics, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1989, pp Cooper, et al., Can N ations Agree? Issues in International Econom ic Cooperation, W ashington, D. C. : The B rook2 ings Institution, 1989, pp nom ic O rder, p Stein, The Hegemon s D ilemma: Great B ritain, the United States, and the International Eco2 119

12 ? ( Fred Lawson) 1983,,,, ,,, 19, (Donald Crone) 1993,,,, 20 80,,,,,,, ( Edward Mansfield)20 90,, U :,,, 1998, 50,,, Fred H. Lawson, Hegemony and the Structure of International Trade Reassessed: A V iew from A rabia, International O rganization, Vol. 37, No. 2, 1983, pp Donald Crone, Does Hegemony Matter? The Reorganization of the Pacific Political Economy, W orld Poli2 tics, Vol. 45, No. 4, 1993, pp Edward D. Mansfield, The Concentration of Capabilities and International Trade, International O rganiza2 tion, Vol. 46, No. 3, 1992, pp ; Edward D. Mansfield, Concentration, Polarity, and the D istribution of Power, International S tudies Q uarterly, Vol. 37, No. 1, 1993, p. 124; Edward D. Mansfield, Power, Trade and W ar, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994, p Helen V. M ilner, International Political Economy: Beyond Hegemonic Stability, Foreign Policy, Vol. 10, No. 1, 1998, pp

13 ,, :, 80,,,,,, 20 70,80 70,, 90 80,, 90,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,, ,

14 1973,, (Ralph Hawtrey) 1952 (Morton Kap lan) 1957,,,,,,,,,,,,,, [ : ] [ : ] [ : ] Charles P. Kindleberger, A Monetary Econom ist on Power Politics, W orld Politics, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1954, pp ; Charles P. Kindleberger, Scientific International Politics, W orld Politics, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1958, pp Robert O. Keohane, Power and Governance in a Partially Globalized W orld, London and New York: Rout2 ledge, 2002, p

15 W orld Econom ics and Politics No. 4, 2010 Key Wordscausal effect, causal mechanism, p rocess tracing, causal inference AuthorQu Bo, Lecturer, China Foreign Affairs University. Hegem on ic Stab ility Theory and IPE Stud ies Zhong Fe iteng( 109) AbstractThis article exp lores how the Hegemonic Stability theory ( HST) imp roves and strengthens the study of International Political Economy ( IPE). Based on different issue areas, scholars argue that a hegemonic power was critical to a stable and open international econom ic order in the 1970 s; in the 1980 s, HST was evolved into a grand theory from two perspectives. First, scholars exam ined whether the decline of he2 gemony led to the increase of policy intervention, and turned to foreign econom ic policy analysis; second, literatures were developed in four aspects, namely, core concep t, theoretical app roach, historical comparison and regional level. Since early 1990 s, con2 sensus has been reached that there is a U - curve relationship between power concen2 tration and open econom ic order. The intellectual history of HST show s enlightenments on IPE studies in three ways: issue areas, multidiscip linary learning and scholarship cooperation. Key Wordshegemonic stability theory, international political economy, foreign eco2 nom ic policy, intellectual history AuthorZhong Feiteng, Researcher, Institute of A sian Pacific Studies, CASS. Econom ic In terdependence, Ex it Cost and Conflict Esca la tion: A Theoretica l Ana lysis Ba sed on D ynam icgam e M odel Kuang Yanx iang( 123) AbstractHow econom ic interdependence influences international politics has long been a debate. Based on Crescenzi s exit model, this article constructs a five - stage game model and tries to exp lore how econom ic interdependence influences international con2 flicts of different levels from a dynam ic perspective, trying to find out how econom ic 159

西方三大霸权的战略比较——兼论美国制度霸权的启示意义•

西方三大霸权的战略比较——兼论美国制度霸权的启示意义• - 1 Pax Americana Pax Romana Pax Britannica 2 3 20 60 4 1 1998 4 2 Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power, New York: Basic Books, 1990, p.50. 3 Immanuel Wallerstein, Three