KIEP Working Paper 02-12 Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3 Really Increased? Evidence from a Gravity Analysis Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3 Really Increased? Evidence from a Gravity Analysis Heungchong KIM Heungchong KIM
KIEP Working Paper 02-12 Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3 Really Increased? Evidence from a Gravity Analysis Heungchong KIM November 2002
Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/23/02 Time: 15:12 Sample(adjusted): 1 41 Included observations: 34 Excluded observations: 7 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 0.417989 2.224042 0.187941 0.8522 CGDP2 0.520072 0.091898 5.659252 0.0000 PGDP2 0.467719 0.090602 5.162369 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.599700 0.239177-2.507352 0.0178 R-squared 0.682056 Mean dependent var 6.870588 Adjusted R-squared 0.650261 S.D. dependent var 1.411369 S.E. of regression 0.834665 Akaike info criterion 2.586559 Sum squared resid 20.89999 Schwarz criterion 2.766131 Log likelihood -39.97151 F-statistic 21.45207 Durbin-Watson stat 2.520907 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/16/02 Time: 14:57 Sample(adjusted): 1 44 Included observations: 41 Excluded observations: 3 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -2.865209 2.413120-1.187346 0.2427 CGDP2 0.579968 0.104445 5.552862 0.0000 PGDP2 0.608817 0.100175 6.077518 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.573157 0.279108-2.053529 0.0471 R-squared 0.693366 Mean dependent var 6.583902 Adjusted R-squared 0.668504 S.D. dependent var 1.779102 S.E. of regression 1.024331 Akaike info criterion 2.978424 Sum squared resid 38.82239 Schwarz criterion 3.145602 Log likelihood -57.05769 F-statistic 27.88832 Durbin-Watson stat 2.249036 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/23/02 Time: 14:38 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -1.423467 1.938730-0.734227 0.4670 CGDP2 0.377396 0.089693 4.207646 0.0001 PGDP2 0.511166 0.074512 6.860137 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.341447 0.246995-1.382407 0.1743 R-squared 0.758507 Mean dependent var 7.206000 Adjusted R-squared 0.740837 S.D. dependent var 1.914638 S.E. of regression 0.974705 Akaike info criterion 2.871325 Sum squared resid 38.95208 Schwarz criterion 3.031917 Log likelihood -60.60480 F-statistic 42.92571 Durbin-Watson stat 2.237095 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/23/02 Time: 13:57 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 2.673301 1.521896 1.756559 0.0865 CGDP2 0.484512 0.073101 6.627942 0.0000 PGDP2 0.345413 0.058492 5.905311 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.678423 0.191549-3.541777 0.0010 R-squared 0.782603 Mean dependent var 8.266222 Adjusted R-squared 0.766696 S.D. dependent var 1.566930 S.E. of regression 0.756852 Akaike info criterion 2.365388 Sum squared resid 23.48579 Schwarz criterion 2.525980 Log likelihood -49.22123 F-statistic 49.19838 Durbin-Watson stat 2.330019 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 04/23/02 Time: 11:38 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 3.262429 1.236812 2.637773 0.0117 CGDP2 0.438057 0.059383 7.376817 0.0000 PGDP2 0.270226 0.048356 5.588289 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.491015 0.152324-3.223490 0.0025 R-squared 0.786138 Mean dependent var 8.502444 Adjusted R-squared 0.770489 S.D. dependent var 1.269209 S.E. of regression 0.608043 Akaike info criterion 1.927547 Sum squared resid 15.15839 Schwarz criterion 2.088139 Log likelihood -39.36980 F-statistic 50.23740 Durbin-Watson stat 1.980345 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/14/02 Time: 15:55 Sample(adjusted): 1 41 Included observations: 34 Excluded observations: 7 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -0.295940 4.242895-0.069749 0.9449 CGDP2 0.484159 0.121854 3.973284 0.0005 PGDP2 0.541066 0.165182 3.275580 0.0031 DISTANCE -0.667632 0.324081-2.060080 0.0499 ASEAN 0.469427 0.574319 0.817362 0.4214 CHINA 1.884205 0.940629 2.003132 0.0561 KORASEAN 0.484331 0.581726 0.832576 0.4130 JAPASEAN 0.776407 0.612426 1.267758 0.2166 CHINASEAN 0.655544 0.729167 0.899031 0.3772 R-squared 0.741949 Mean dependent var 6.870588 Adjusted R-squared 0.659373 S.D. dependent var 1.411369 S.E. of regression 0.823721 Akaike info criterion 2.671957 Sum squared resid 16.96291 Schwarz criterion 3.075994 Log likelihood -36.42328 F-statistic 8.985024 Durbin-Watson stat 2.579607 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000010 Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/16/02 Time: 15:59 Sample(adjusted): 1 44 Included observations: 41 Excluded observations: 3 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -11.08537 3.378994-3.280673 0.0025 CGDP2 0.627186 0.109153 5.745930 0.0000 PGDP2 0.928465 0.118689 7.822663 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.258399 0.320607-0.805968 0.4262 ASEAN 1.134711 0.479526 2.366317 0.0242 CHINA 3.251992 0.929834 3.497391 0.0014 KORASEAN 0.588845 0.531438 1.108022 0.2761 JAPASEAN -0.588901 0.569475-1.034113 0.3088 CHINASEAN 1.819341 0.616402 2.951549 0.0059 R-squared 0.816442 Mean dependent var 6.583902 Adjusted R-squared 0.770553 S.D. dependent var 1.779102 S.E. of regression 0.852202 Akaike info criterion 2.709201 Sum squared resid 23.23993 Schwarz criterion 3.085351 Log likelihood -46.53863 F-statistic 17.79149 Durbin-Watson stat 2.497351 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/14/02 Time: 16:53 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -6.546653 2.371401-2.760669 0.0090 CGDP2 0.382600 0.086101 4.443625 0.0001 PGDP2 0.654681 0.076668 8.539114 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.056871 0.277337-0.205061 0.8387 ASEAN 1.248044 0.399216 3.126240 0.0035 CHINA 3.755183 0.841709 4.461381 0.0001 KORASEAN 0.158551 0.476345 0.332849 0.7412 JAPASEAN 0.200623 0.502283 0.399422 0.6919 CHINASEAN 1.180687 0.532660 2.216587 0.0331 R-squared 0.860686 Mean dependent var 7.206000 Adjusted R-squared 0.829727 S.D. dependent var 1.914638 S.E. of regression 0.790059 Akaike info criterion 2.543439 Sum squared resid 22.47098 Schwarz criterion 2.904772 Log likelihood -48.22738 F-statistic 27.80104 Durbin-Watson stat 2.118463 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/14/02 Time: 16:11 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 0.996762 1.990946 0.500648 0.6197 CGDP2 0.442663 0.072841 6.077112 0.0000 PGDP2 0.458482 0.061943 7.401738 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.691211 0.218862-3.158197 0.0032 ASEAN 0.288467 0.321854 0.896269 0.3761 CHINA 2.708521 0.666109 4.066183 0.0002 KORASEAN 0.480032 0.375118 1.279681 0.2088 JAPASEAN -0.076200 0.400994-0.190027 0.8504 CHINASEAN 1.113112 0.421139 2.643097 0.0121 R-squared 0.869847 Mean dependent var 8.266222 Adjusted R-squared 0.840924 S.D. dependent var 1.566930 S.E. of regression 0.624960 Akaike info criterion 2.074598 Sum squared resid 14.06069 Schwarz criterion 2.435930 Log likelihood -37.67845 F-statistic 30.07464 Durbin-Watson stat 2.595566 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/14/02 Time: 17:03 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -0.734713 1.592739-0.461289 0.6474 CGDP2 0.499566 0.059360 8.415908 0.0000 PGDP2 0.369531 0.048280 7.653956 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.328307 0.164557-1.995091 0.0536 ASEAN 0.884979 0.263180 3.362645 0.0018 CHINA 2.316507 0.500592 4.627540 0.0000 KORASEAN 0.565370 0.285760 1.978479 0.0556 JAPASEAN -0.240837 0.302107-0.797191 0.4306 CHINASEAN 0.704982 0.313333 2.249947 0.0307 R-squared 0.887750 Mean dependent var 8.502444 Adjusted R-squared 0.862805 S.D. dependent var 1.269209 S.E. of regression 0.470113 Akaike info criterion 1.505168 Sum squared resid 7.956218 Schwarz criterion 1.866501 Log likelihood -24.86629 F-statistic 35.58896 Durbin-Watson stat 1.954977 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
1980 Redundant Variables: ASEAN KORASEAN JAPASEAN CHINASEAN F-statistic 0.664879 Probability 0.622286 Log likelihood ratio 3.437198 Probability 0.487492 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/17/02 Time: 10:39 Sample: 1 41 Included observations: 34 Excluded observations: 7 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -0.405031 2.190975-0.184863 0.8546 CGDP2 0.499006 0.089329 5.586170 0.0000 PGDP2 0.483254 0.087741 5.507731 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.506784 0.236135-2.146161 0.0404 CHINA 1.525380 0.840294 1.815293 0.0798 R-squared 0.714498 Mean dependent var 6.870588 Adjusted R-squared 0.675118 S.D. dependent var 1.411369 S.E. of regression 0.804458 Akaike info criterion 2.537757 Sum squared resid 18.76743 Schwarz criterion 2.762222 Log likelihood -38.14187 F-statistic 18.14384 Durbin-Watson stat 2.447662 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 1985 Redundant Variables: DISTANCE KORASEAN JAPASEAN F-statistic 1.613539 Probability 0.205577 Log likelihood ratio 5.775467 Probability 0.123060 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/17/02 Time: 10:47 Sample: 1 44 Included observations: 41 Excluded observations: 3 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -11.10205 1.892335-5.866851 0.0000 CGDP2 0.500127 0.094159 5.311490 0.0000 PGDP2 0.871033 0.110763 7.863959 0.0000 ASEAN 0.978246 0.397107 2.463431 0.0188 CHINA 3.434285 0.906245 3.789576 0.0006 CHINASEAN 1.667386 0.542273 3.074810 0.0041 R-squared 0.788675 Mean dependent var 6.583902 Adjusted R-squared 0.758486 S.D. dependent var 1.779102 S.E. of regression 0.874323 Akaike info criterion 2.703725 Sum squared resid 26.75542 Schwarz criterion 2.954492 Log likelihood -49.42636 F-statistic 26.12440 Durbin-Watson stat 2.311573 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
1990 Redundant Variables: DISTANCE KORASEAN JAPASEAN F-statistic 0.063050 Probability 0.978990 Log likelihood ratio 0.235819 Probability 0.971610 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/17/02 Time: 10:52 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -6.894133 1.158878-5.948973 0.0000 CGDP2 0.388587 0.076305 5.092565 0.0000 PGDP2 0.650457 0.072729 8.943593 0.0000 ASEAN 1.200893 0.335561 3.578765 0.0009 CHINA 3.700984 0.784283 4.718939 0.0000 CHINASEAN 1.067272 0.439385 2.429015 0.0198 R-squared 0.859954 Mean dependent var 7.206000 Adjusted R-squared 0.841999 S.D. dependent var 1.914638 S.E. of regression 0.761056 Akaike info criterion 2.415346 Sum squared resid 22.58904 Schwarz criterion 2.656234 Log likelihood -48.34529 F-statistic 47.89584 Durbin-Watson stat 2.167082 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 1995 Redundant Variables: ASEAN KORASEAN JAPASEAN F-statistic 0.877123 Probability 0.462012 Log likelihood ratio 3.174554 Probability 0.365487 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/17/02 Time: 10:56 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 1.572529 1.272942 1.235350 0.2241 CGDP2 0.401185 0.063441 6.323754 0.0000 PGDP2 0.438274 0.057255 7.654796 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.641867 0.162489-3.950214 0.0003 CHINA 2.589015 0.643589 4.022778 0.0003 CHINASEAN 0.879555 0.332593 2.644537 0.0117 R-squared 0.860333 Mean dependent var 8.266222 Adjusted R-squared 0.842427 S.D. dependent var 1.566930 S.E. of regression 0.621999 Akaike info criterion 2.011810 Sum squared resid 15.08844 Schwarz criterion 2.252698 Log likelihood -39.26573 F-statistic 48.04729 Durbin-Watson stat 2.612592 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
1999 Redundant Variables: JAPASEAN F-statistic 0.635514 Probability 0.430567 Log likelihood ratio 0.787462 Probability 0.374869 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: TRADE Method: Least Squares Date: 08/17/02 Time: 10:57 Sample: 1 45 Included observations: 45 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C -0.136637 1.398045-0.097734 0.9227 CGDP2 0.486307 0.056701 8.576729 0.0000 PGDP2 0.370779 0.048016 7.721981 0.0000 DISTANCE -0.398828 0.138072-2.888547 0.0064 ASEAN 0.892254 0.261723 3.409158 0.0016 CHINA 2.358351 0.495374 4.760748 0.0000 KORASEAN 0.668962 0.253248 2.641527 0.0120 CHINASEAN 0.805974 0.285165 2.826343 0.0075 R-squared 0.885768 Mean dependent var 8.502444 Adjusted R-squared 0.864157 S.D. dependent var 1.269209 S.E. of regression 0.467792 Akaike info criterion 1.478223 Sum squared resid 8.096670 Schwarz criterion 1.799407 Log likelihood -25.26002 F-statistic 40.98607 Durbin-Watson stat 1.944962 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
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