3 2006 GDP 1017 % (CPI) 115 % 2005 (Pagano 1993 ; King and Levin 1993 ;Rajan and Zingales 1998 ; 2001) (1984) (1989) (1992) (1992) (2005) M2 (1996 1997) (2000) ; (2002) (2006) ( ) 3 ( 06&ZD004-01) 4
2007 4 M 2 ΠGDP (1996) M2ΠGDP (2000) (2000) (2001) (2001) (2001) (2002) (2002) (2002) (2003) (2001) (2005) (2005) (2006) (2004) M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠGDP ; M2ΠGDP ( 2007) (1) ; (2) M2ΠGDP ; (3) ( ) ( ) 1994 M2ΠGDP ; ; ; ; ( 2003 2004 2005 2006) ( ) 5
; 2006 40 (M2) 3416 GDP 191 % 166 % (M2/ GDP) 20 90 1 1992 019 1997 1122 GDP 2006 M2 GDP 1166 (M2) 2 GDP 1952 1978 1416 % 1979 1998 2311 % 112 ; 1978 2005 28 GDP 3613 % 1995 2005 4012 % 1 ( M2ΠGDP) 2 3 4 M2 GDP ; IMF2IFS GDP 3 6
2007 4 5 20 1985 3553 2003 23 2006 32 22 89 GDP (M2) 30 GDP ( 1978 32 %) M2ΠGDP ( ) 5 (CPI ) ( 4) IMF2IFS ( 1995 (1988 1994 ) (1998 ) 1 1995 1994 1 1 ; 6 IMF2IFS ( 6) 1996 1000 2006 10663 1995 1 1978 1994 1995 2002 2003 2006 017 113 116 1010 818 1013 1984 1988 1994 2005 7
( ) 1992 1994 ; 1997 2003 80 % 40 % 2005 15 1978 1994 1 1978 1984 1995 1 1996 6 ; ;1997 6 ;1999 7 ; 2000 9 2005 8
2007 4 ; ; 20 90 M2ΠGDP ; M2/ GDP GDP M2ΠGDP 1995 ( 1) Y ( t) K( t) ( ) Y ( t) = A ( t) K( t) (1) A ( t) t D ( t) D ( t) = Y ( t - 1) i ( t) M ( t) 9
M ( t) = A ( t) P( t) K( t) = P( t) Y ( t) (2) (2) M ( t) P( t) D = D 1 + D 2 D ( t) = Y ( t - 1) (3) D ( t + 1) = Y ( t) + D 2 ( t + 1) (3) Y ( t) = 1 1 - D 2 ( t + 1) (4) (4) y ( t) - y ( t - 1) = d 2 ( t + 1) - d 2 ( t) (5) g ( t) = y ( t) - y ( t - 1) (5) ( t) d 2 ( t + 1) - d 2 ( t) = + ( t) ( ) > 0 ( t) g ( t) = + ( t) (6) t P( t + 1) Y ( t) = (1 + x ( t) ) (1 + i ( t) ) K( t) (7) x ( t) ( ) (7) (1) a ( t) = r( t) + ( t) - p ( t) (8) (8) h ( t) = ln H( t) r ( t) = ln (1 + i ( t) ) ( t) = ln (1 + x ( t) ) a ( t) = ln Y ( t) K( t) ( a ( t) ) t a ( t) = a 0 + g ( t - 1) (9) g (0 1) (9) (8) ( t) = a 0 + g ( t - 1) - r( t) + p ( t) (10) (2) p ( t) = m ( t) - g ( t) (11) (6) (10) (11) g ( t) = g ( t - 1) + + ( a 0 - r( t) ) + p ( t) = 1 + g ( t - 1) + 1 + 1 + 1 + ( a 0 - r( t) + m ( t) ) (12) g = 1 1 + (1 - ) + 1 + (1 - ) ( a 0 - r( t) + m ( t) ) (13) (13) a 0 r ( t) ( ) m ( t) 10
2007 4 (12) r( t) m ( t) > 0 0 < < 1 5 g 5 g 5 2 g 5 2 g = - < 0 = > 0 5 r( t) 1 + (1 - ) 5 m ( t) 1 + (1 - ) 5 r( t) 2 = 5 m ( t) 2 = 0 (14) (14) ( ) 0 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( 80 ) 90 ( ) ( ) (1) r ( t) ; (2) R ( t) e p ( t) e P( t + 1) = - 1 P ( t + 1) e t + 1 P ( t) P( t) t p ( t) e t r( t) = R ( t) = p ( t) e r t p ( t) 0 ( p ( t) e ) ( p ( t) 0 ) ( ) 11
p ( t) e + m ( ) r ( t) = R ( t) = p ( t) e + m ( m ) ( p ( t) 0 ) ( 1988 ) ( ) e = EP f ΠP d ( E P d P f ) e P f E P d ( p ( t) 0 ) 20 90 ; 20 90 1994 12
2007 4 2005 7 21 2005 7 (1) ; (2) ; (3) 20 90 (1) (2) M2ΠGDP (3) 15 4 5 M2 ( ) M2ΠGDP ; 13
; ( ) ( ) 2005 M2ΠGDP r ( t) = R ( t) + p ( t) e + m ( r ( t) ) M2ΠGDP 14
2007 4 (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; M2 GDP M2ΠGDP M2ΠGDP 11 M2ΠGDP - ( ) 1997 21 15
( ) 31 2006 ( ) 2006 43 45 1015 ( ) ( ) ; ; 41 ( ) 1989 1992 2000 9 2002 6 2005 M2ΠGDP 10 16
2007 4 1984 2000 3.. 1997 ( ) 2006 M2ΠGDP 3 2004 2001 M2ΠGDP(1980 2000) 2 2001 ( ) 1 2 1992 2001 5 1996 1996 ( ) 1997 2020 ( ) 2001 ( ) 2002 3 2000 4 2007 M2ΠGDP 1 2003 1 2002 M2ΠGD 12 2001 M2 GDP 6 2005 (1995 2003) 8 2006 2002 2005 4 2003 8 2004 4 2005 10 2006 4 King R. and R. Levine 1993 Finance and Growth Schumpter May Be Right Quarterly Journal of Ecomomics 108 (3) pp. 717 38. Pagano M. 1993 Financial Markets and Growth An Overview European Economic Review 37(2 3) pp. 613 22. Rajan R. and L. Zingales 1998 Finance Dependence and Growth American Economic Review 88(3) pp. 559 86. Financial Development and Economic Growth Research Group ( Institute of Economics CASS) Abstract Based on the review of China s financial system and combined with the discussion of how to coordinate between credit expansion and inflation in the open economy this paper by employing the credit expansion model on the basis of learning by doing reveals the special institutional arrangement regarding monetary and financial policy during China s high2speed economic growth. This paper holds that this kind of institutional arrangement can effectively explain China s high2rate economic growth and low2rate inflation in its transition. The paper also points out the cost and risk of this kind of institutional arrangement and puts forwards some proposals on how to transform from mobilizational finance to marketizational finance. Key Words Financial Development ; Economics ; Financial Market JEL Classification G18 O49 P29 ( ) ( ) 17