公司报告公司参观 天宝集团 (1979 HK) 参观电子产品展后点评 公司快讯我们出席了 10 月 14 日于香港会议展览中心举行的香港秋季电子产品展 天宝是场内规模较大的参展商之一, 设置了一个 3 x10 的摊位展示其自家品牌的充电器, 并且设有贵宾室专门展示其为主要客户制造的各种产品 新产品款式众多我们特别留意到的新产品包括 :i) 为博世生产的电动自行车充电器 ( 博世为众多高性能电动自行车品牌开发电池系统 );ii) 为一名山东客户生产的电动汽车充电器 ;iii) 为 TTI 和 SWK 生产的智能控制器 ;iv) Qualcomm Quick Charge 3.0 兼容充电器 ;v) 为 Google Home 和 Chromecast 生产的充电器 ; 及 vi) 汽车香熏机兼充电器 以上产品的图片载于第 2-3 页 我们认为这些产品短期内未必能贡献大额收益, 不过具备长远增长潜力, 例如山地自行车和城市自行车近年在欧洲渐趋普及 另外, 这也反映了天宝已经开始供应博世电动工具以外的产品, 对天宝发展有正面作用 Qualcomm 的业务也从智能手机扩展到其他新电子设备, 其快速充电 (Quick Charge) 技术是一个长远增长动力 Qualcomm 快速充电的产品均价应与 Oppo 的闪充 (Flash Charge) 相若, 大约为人民币 30 元, 相对传统充电器为人民币 8-10 元 目前是 Oppo 闪充的主要供货商在展览会上我们知悉, 天宝现时是 Oppo 闪充适配器的主要供货商 ( 供货超过 50%) 我们注意到, 三星 Galaxy Note 7 的失败可能对其他大型智能手机品牌 ( 包括 Oppo) 的出货有利, 间接让天宝受益 此外, 受惠今年度展会的整体入场人数增加, 截至我们参观当天 ( 展会的第二天 ), 天宝摊位的参观人数较去年增加 20-30% 我们还观察到许多通用电源供货商也有参展, 虽然他们有可能成为较小型的竞争对手, 但目前天宝提供的先进充电解决方案 ( 例如无线充电 快速充电 ) 控制功能 ( 电动工具的智能控制器 ) 以及外观上较吸引的产品设计, 这些通用电源供货商尚未能提供 这再次引证我们的观点, 虽然竞争对手的产品渐趋便宜, 但天宝的产品均价及毛利率仍能保持稳定的上升势头 重予买入我们继续看好天宝, 维持买入, 预测和目标价不变 ( 基于 17 财年预测市盈率 8 倍计算目标价为 1.86 港元 ) 虽然股价在过往 3 个月大幅上升, 但现价市盈率仅 6 倍, 加上股息率达到 5%, 我们认为股价将继续上行 中国 工业电动设备 2016 年 10 月 17 日 买入 目标价 HKD1.86 收盘价 (16 Oct 16) HKD1.44 上升 / 下调空间 (%) 29.0 恒生指数 23233.31 总市值 (HKDm/USDm) 1,440/186 52 周最高 / 最低 (HKD) 0.30-1.60 日均成交额 (USDm) 1.14 流通量 (%) 25.0% 资料来源 : 彭博 股价表现 HKD 1.50 1.30 1.10 0.90 0.70 0.50 0.30 Dec-15 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) 9.9 100.0 绝对回报 (USD, %) 9.9 99.9 相对 HSI 回报 (%) 10.4 92.7 资料来源 : 彭博 公司简介天宝集团控股有限公司是一家开关电源制造商 公司主要向消费类电子及工业行业供应产品 资料来源 : 彭博 Price(LHS) Aug-16 Rel. to HSI(RHS) 270% 220% 170% 120% 70% 图 1: 盈利预测 截至 Dec 31 ( 港元百万 ) FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F 营业额 1,931 2,256 2,672 3,041 3,376 经营盈利 90 156 262 304 351 实际盈利 95 114 189 232 272 每股实际盈利 (HKD) 0.126 0.149 0.189 0.232 0.272 每股实际盈利增长 (%) 138 18.1 26.5 22.9 17.1 市盈率 (x) 11.4 9.6 7.6 6.2 5.3 市净率 (x) 2.93 3.38 2.88 2.11 1.63 股息率 (%) 0.0 1.8 3.4 4.8 5.7 股本回报率 (%) 27.7 32.9 45.8 39.3 34.6 净债务 / 股本 (%) 4.2 5.6 (0.3) (22.1) (36.8) 资料来源 : 公司数据, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 研究部 谢嘉熙证监会中央编号 :BAZ779 +852 2899 6768 christopher.tse@guosen.com.hk 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点, 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 1
Figure 2Ten Pao s advertising billboard Figure 3Snapshot of Ten Pao s booth Figure 4Charger for ebike (second charger from the right) Figure 5Bosch powers a list of high-performance ebikes Source: Bosch-ebike.com, Guosen Securities(HK) Research Figure 6Charger for electric vehicle Figure 7Charger for Google Home Guosen Securities (HK) 2
Figure 8Supercharger for Ryobi Figure 9Smart Controller for Black & Decker Figure 10Qualcomm Quick Charge 3.0 compliant adaptor Figure 11Medela, a leading brand of portable pumps for breastfeeding mothers, became a new customer this year Guosen Securities (HK) 3
Summary financial statements(year to Dec 31) Profit & Loss (HKDm) FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Financial Ratios FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Revenue 1,931 2,256 2,672 3,041 3,376 Gross profit margin (%) 17.2 17.3 19.6 19.8 20.0 Revenue growth (%) 14.2 16.9 18.4 13.8 11.0 Operating profit margin (%) 4.7 6.9 9.8 10.0 10.4 Cost of sales (1,598) (1,866) (2,149) (2,438) (2,699) Underlying profit margin (%) 4.9 5.1 7.1 7.6 8.0 Gross profit 332 390 523 603 677 Net debt/equity (%) 4.2 5.6 (0.3) (22.1) (36.8) Other income/(expense) (29) 44 33 29 32 Net debt/total assets (%) 1.3 1.4 (0.1) (8.5) (15.7) Operating expenses (214) (278) (294) (328) (358) Current ratio (%) 138 115 131 145 161 Operating profit 90 156 262 304 351 Dividend payout (%) 0.0 17.5 25.6 30.0 30.0 Operating profit growth (%) 4.9 73.5 67.8 15.9 15.5 Interest cover (x) 39.3 27.9 40.9 42.7 44.6 Other non-operating inc/(exp) 0 0 0 0 0 Dividend cover (x) 0.0 5.7 3.9 3.3 3.3 Finance income 1 1 1 1 1 Acct. receivable turnover days 79.9 83.3 80.5 75.6 76.0 Finance expenses (2) (6) (6) (7) (8) Acct. payable turnover days 105.2 118.9 119.0 111.0 112.3 Associates & JCE 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory turnover days 45.4 42.0 44.5 48.6 48.1 Profit before taxation 89 151 257 298 344 Cash cycle days 20.1 6.3 6.0 13.2 11.8 Taxation (34) (24) (63) (65) (72) Dupont Analysis FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Non-controlling interests 0 0 0 0 0 Tax burden (%) 61.8 84.3 75.5 78.0 79.0 Net profit 55 128 194 232 272 Interest burden (%) 98.3 96.9 97.9 97.9 98.0 Other Adjustments on UP 40 (14) (5) 0 0 Operating profit margin (%) 4.7 6.9 9.8 10.0 10.4 Underlying Profit 95 114 189 232 272 Asset turnover (x) 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 Underlying profit growth (%) 138 20.3 65.6 22.9 17.1 Leverage ratio (x) 3.1 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.5 EPS (HKD) 0.073 0.167 0.194 0.232 0.272 ROA (%) 8.9 9.1 13.4 14.2 14.1 Underlying EPS (HKD) 0.126 0.149 0.189 0.232 0.272 ROE (%) 27.7 32.9 45.8 39.3 34.6 Underlying EPS growth (%) 138 18.1 26.5 22.9 17.1 Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research DPS (HKD) 0.0 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.08 DPS growth (%) (100) 0.0 84.9 43.8 17.1 Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Balance Sheet (HKDm) FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Cashflow (HKDm) FY14A FY15A FY16F FY17F FY18F Fixed assets 188 285 329 349 359 Operating profit 89 151 257 298 344 Associates & JCE 8 0 0 0 0 Depreciation & amortization 36 47 64 73 76 Others 32 37 36 36 36 Interest expense (2) (6) (6) (7) (8) Non-current assets 227 322 366 385 395 Change in working capital (21) (35) (111) (14) (17) Inventories 213 216 307 342 370 Tax paid (22) (46) (63) (65) (72) Debtors & prepayments 444 585 593 667 740 Other operating cashflow 59 (23) 0 7 8 Bank deposits & cash 85 187 209 367 551 Operating activities 138 88 141 291 331 Others 199 16 22 22 22 Capex (58) (156) (108) (93) (86) Current assets 942 1,005 1,131 1,397 1,683 Free cash flow 81 (68) 33 198 245 Bank & other borrowings 75 118 120 123 125 Disposal of non-current assets 8 2 0 0 0 Trade & payables 510 706 695 788 873 Associates & JCE (net) 0 0 0 0 0 Taxation 44 40 40 40 40 Interest received 0 0 0 0 0 Others 55 11 11 11 11 Dividends received 0 0 0 0 0 Current liabilities 684 875 866 962 1,049 Other investing cashflow 0 5 0 0 0 Bank & other borrowings 28 88 93 100 106 Investing activities (49) (149) (108) (93) (86) Others 89 38 38 38 38 New loans raised 129 883 8 9 9 Non-current liabilities 117 126 132 138 144 Repayment of loans (142) (780) 0 0 0 Net assets 368 325 499 683 885 Dividends paid 0 (10) (20) (48) (70) Share capital 4 135 135 135 135 Other financing cashflow (31) (50) 0 0 0 Premium & reserves 365 190 364 548 750 Financing activities (44) 43 (12) (40) (61) Shareholders' funds 368 325 499 683 885 Inc/(dec) in cash 45 (18) 21 158 184 Non-controlling interests 0 0 0 0 0 Cash at beginning of year 41 85 65 86 244 Total equity 368 325 499 683 885 Foreign exchange effect 0 (3) 0 0 0 BVPS (HKD) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 Cash at end of year 85 65 86 244 428 Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Source: Company data, Guosen Securities (HK) Research Guosen Securities (HK) 4
Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclo sable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has investment banking relationship within the past 12 months to Ten Pao Group Holdings Limited (1979.HK). Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the other listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in suc h securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This r eport is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authoriza tion, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guose n Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Guosen Securities (HK) 5
信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10% 行业评级超配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -10% 与 10% 之间 ; 低配 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10% 以上 利益披露声明 报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权益 本报告中, 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称国信证券 ( 香港 )) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 在过去 12 个月内与天寶集團控股有限公司 (1979.HK) 有投资银行关系 ; 而在过去 12 个月内与其他公司并无投资银行关系 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 员工均非该上市公司的雇员 免责条款 证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券 ( 香港 ) 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国信证券 ( 香港 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令国信证券 ( 香港 ) 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 Guosen Securities (HK) 6