广东社会科学 2014 年第 5 期 左晓斯 本文概要分析了全球移民治理现状和趋势, 也较为系统地探讨了中国的移民问题及其对 中国发展和稳定的重大意义在此基础上, 从认知与观念 战略与规划 体制与制度 资源与能力 协调与合作 数据与研究六个方面证明, 中国有可能正陷入移民治理困局, 尽管这个困局可能尚未被 国家决策层和各级政府察觉 移民全球治理诸边主义中国困局 C916. 1 A 1000-114X ( 2014) 05-0184 - 15 Gerber 2011 2-13 Guild and Mantu 2011 3 184
1. the Global Commission on International Migration GCIM International Organization for Migration IOM 1970 0. 82 2000 1. 5 2005 2 2010 2. 14 2050 4. 05 GCIM 2005 IOM 2010 ⅹⅸ 3% 2005 2010 0. 1% 3% 3. 1% UN DESA 2009 20 100 25 25% 2009 7. 4 2009 4140 3160 Price and Benton - Short 2007 UNDP 2009 UN DESA 2009 World Bank 2010 Ratha et al. 2010 2. 3% 185
labour migration Guild and Mantu 2011 1 IOM 2008 2050 6 2005 24 2020 30 2040 36 2030 migrant labour IOM 2010 3 UNDP 2009 1990 2000 Ghosh 2000 Bosswell 2003 2009 Development Research Bakewell 2008 governance 1980 1990 the public - sector reforms any pattern of rule global governance or international governance Bevir 2007 364 Betts 2011 7 the transfer of authority 186
partnering 1990 1990 1990 2005 1990 1993 IC- MPD IOM Geiger et al 2010 1990 IOM Puebla Manilla 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 GFMD 2013 ICMPD 2001 the Berne Initiative 2004 AENEAS 2004 OECD 1970 OECD Road Map 187
Geiger et al 2010 Kunz et al 2011 tapestry regime the Doyle Report IOM RCPs Betts 2011 320 coherent plurilateralism Betts 2011 321-323 RCPs IOM 188
RCPs forum - shopping divide and rule RCPs Woods and Martinez - Diaz 2009 Bhagwati 2003 1994 ICPD 189
RCPs Betts 2011 320-325 IOM ICRC GFMD 2006 2013 7 IOM IOM IOM 190
1. IOM 2010 Changing Patterns of Global Migration and Remittances 1990 emigrants 410 2000 580 2013 930 2013 9 2000 2005 2010 50. 8 59 68. 6 3481. 4 3926. 6 4281. 1 12. 1% 13% 13. 5% 2000 2005 2010 24 27. 8 30 54. 5% 57% 54. 7% 266. 9 272. 1 274. 2 40% 39. 5% 38. 8% 2000 2008 64 57 48 UN DESA 2009 Koser 2009 2. 191
图一 1982 ~ 2010 年中国人口及其流动趋势 ( 单位 : 千万人 ) 2010 2000 15-59 9. 40 70. 14% 2. 61 7. 4 35. 27% 3. migration 2. 6 192
图二 1982 ~ 2010 年中国城镇人口和流动人口变化趋势图 ( % ) 注 : 以上图表均根据历次全国人口普查数据整理 1957 efficiency equity legitmacy rights Betts 2011 24-28 193
outsiders Buchanan and Keohane 2006 2013 the border citizen non - citizen Guild and Mantu 2011 17-20 2003 2006 2006 5 194
2014 1. + 2. 2014 1 The Race to the Bottom Baglay and Nakache 2014 7 3. 1950 2003 195
21 4. 5. Baglay and Nakache 2014 9 196
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