Lewis

2011 6 World Economic Papers December, 2011 * 2005 2010 2005 * 985 email jadeyyx@ 163. com 600 200433 985 email zhangping_4@ sina. com 985 2011SHKXZD003 2011M500711 20110490654 11CJL024

2011 6 33 Lewis 1972 30 2004 2010 2005

34 2011 6 2007 Cai 2008 2007 2007 2005 Minami and Ma 2008 Lin et al. 2004 Zhang and Song 2003 Wu and Yao 2003 2005 2005 2007 2008 60% 2007 2003 2006 2002 2006 30% 2008 2005 Meng and Bai 2007 2000 2004 0. 5% 1. 5% Knight 2007 GDP GDP Minami 1968 1960 Islam and Yokota 2008

2011 6 35 Cai and Wang 2008 1978 2005 Minami and Ma 2008 Knight et al. 2011 CHIPS Lewis 1972 90% Lewis 1954 1972

36 2011 6 Blanchard Giavazzi 2003 2008 Harrison 2002 30 2009 Kuijs 2005 1 1 k k k = rk wl = r w K L 1

2011 6 37 500 39 2005 2005 2007 2. 5% 2. 5% 2005 2007 631 773 CCER 2007 = / 1 1 33 613 638

38 2011 6 1 18 1 36 14 11 27 19 2 37 15 43 28 24 3 9 16 32 29 42 4 30 17 26 30 21 5 10 18 15 31 41 20 6 22 19 27 32 7 8 20 28 33 35 8 14 21 25 34 34 9 31 22 16 35 29 10 13 23 46 36 39 11 40 24 45 37 17 12 23 25 7 38 6 13 33 26 44 39 = / = / 2001 2005 2004 2011

2011 6 39 2003 2008 Gomes and Ramaswamy 1999 1 = / 2 = / 3 = / 4 = / 5 = / 6 = 7 = / 8 = 1 9 = 2 10 = 11 = - / 12 = / 1 2 H H H H H

40 2011 6 Knight and Li 2005 gziv Stock and Yogo 2005 Minimum eigenvalue statistic F gziv IV 2 IV 39 629. 9 7 510. 23 14 016. 8 10 055. 4 P 0. 0000 0. 0000 0. 0000 0. 0000 2000 2008 Folta et al. 2006 Hausman OLS pool 3 Hausman Chi2 129. 9 110. 71 206. 27 119. 16 P 0. 0000 0. 0000 0. 0000 0. 0000 4 IV IV OLS IV OLS IV IV IV pool IV IV 10% 1 000 0. 4%

2011 6 41 4 IV IV-OLS OLS - 0. 00382 * 0. 00754 *** 0. 0204 *** 0. 00916 *** 0. 00203 0. 000186 0. 000580 0. 000140-0. 0305 *** - 0. 0307 *** - 0. 0455 *** - 0. 0433 *** 0. 00410 0. 00408 0. 00225 0. 00223 0. 00170 *** 0. 00168 *** 0. 00174 *** 0. 00181 *** 5. 36e-05 5. 32e-05 4. 03e-05 3. 97e-05-0. 0360 *** - 0. 0369 *** - 0. 0292 *** - 0. 0200 *** 0. 00638 0. 00634 0. 00286 0. 00281-0. 0177 ** - 0. 0166 ** - 0. 140 *** - 0. 108 *** 0. 00821 0. 00817 0. 00351 0. 00326-0. 000840 *** - 0. 000928 *** - 0. 00119 *** - 0. 00103 *** 2. 21e-05 1. 55e-05 1. 01e-05 8. 04e-06 4. 63e-08 *** 5. 12e-08 *** 7. 73e-08 *** 6. 74e-08 *** 1. 47e-09 1. 17e-09 1. 01e-09 9. 28e-10 0. 00495 *** 0. 00264 0. 0225 *** 0. 0327 *** 0. 00167 0. 00161 0. 00169 0. 00163 HHI - 2. 57e-05 ** - 2. 23e-05 ** - 8. 97e-06 ** 8. 89e-06 ** 1. 07e-05 1. 06e-05 4. 51e-06 4. 41e-06 HHI - 0. 00105 *** - 0. 000679 *** 0. 000252 *** 0. 000280 *** 9. 00e-05 6. 18e-05 3. 36e-05 3. 32e-05 HHI - 5. 89e-05 *** - 3. 18e-05 *** - 1. 67e-05 *** - 1. 11e-05 *** 6. 57e-06 4. 44e-06 1. 22e-06 1. 19e-06 0. 246 *** 0. 163 *** 0. 259 *** 0. 341 *** 0. 0178 0. 0101 0. 0130 0. 0125-0. 000113-9. 67e-05-0. 000310 ** 0. 000712 *** 0. 000122 0. 000121 0. 000145 0. 000138 Constant 0. 725 *** 0. 522 *** 0. 129 *** 0. 340 *** 0. 0372 0. 00887 0. 00932 0. 00476 Observations 613 638 613 638 613 638 613 638 R-squared 0. 021 0. 018 0. 039 Number of id 279 084 279 084 * ** *** 10% 5% 1%

42 2011 6 IV 5 1 11 2 11 3 11 4 5 5 5 11 11 10% 11 5 5 5 1 1

2011 6 43 5 1 2 3 4 5 0. 00221-0. 00626 ** - 0. 00801 * 0. 00182-0. 00960 0. 00359 0. 00279 0. 00458 0. 00546 0. 00692-0. 756 *** - 0. 273 *** - 0. 00955 ** - 0. 513 *** - 0. 00951 0. 0360 0. 0192 0. 00444 0. 0559 0. 00667 0. 00377 *** 0. 00206 *** 0. 000736 *** 0. 00776 *** 0. 00367 *** 0. 000122 0. 000103 7. 56e-05 0. 000345 0. 000232-0. 0672 *** - 0. 0197 ** - 0. 0221-0. 139 *** - 0. 0166 0. 0124 0. 00882 0. 0135 0. 0228 0. 0186-0. 0115-0. 0281 * - 0. 0147-0. 0242 0. 0212 0. 0114 0. 0144 0. 0218 0. 0161 0. 0344-0. 00117 *** - 0. 000819 *** - 0. 000657 *** - 0. 00159 *** - 0. 000596 *** 4. 57e-05 3. 29e-05 4. 02e-05 0. 000104 5. 64e-05 6. 11e-08 *** 4. 62e-08 *** 3. 72e-08 *** 8. 66e-08 *** 3. 21e-08 *** 2. 81e-09 2. 22e-09 2. 76e-09 6. 37e-09 3. 42e-09 0. 000949 0. 00540 * 0. 00595 ** - 0. 00929 0. 00792 * 0. 00295 0. 00282 0. 00301 0. 00747 0. 00447 HHI - 1. 24e-05-1. 19e-05-0. 000199 *** - 0. 000201 *** - 0. 000355 *** 2. 08e-05 1. 63e-05 3. 14e-05 5. 51e-05 5. 86e-05 HHI - 0. 00149 *** - 0. 000453 *** - 0. 00130 *** - 0. 00198 *** - 0. 000735 *** 0. 000289 0. 000128 0. 000172 0. 000515 0. 000169 HHI - 6. 42e-05 *** - 0. 000183 *** - 0. 000100 *** - 0. 000427 ** - 0. 000272 *** 1. 75e-05 2. 69e-05 1. 67e-05 0. 000213 4. 31e-05 0. 193 *** 0. 275 *** 0. 216 *** 0. 294 *** 0. 343 *** 0. 0357 0. 0244 0. 0304 0. 0740 0. 0579 0. 000351-0. 000387 *** 0. 00154 *** 0. 00642 *** 0. 00137 0. 000273 0. 000134 0. 000544 0. 00159 0. 000867 Constant 0. 767 *** 0. 703 *** 0. 914 *** 0. 831 *** 0. 927 *** 0. 0775 0. 0495 0. 0948 0. 118 0. 137 Observations 220 194 238 145 155 299 71 059 80 469 Number of id 100 294 109 649 72 463 32 298 37 137 * ** *** 10% 5% 1%

44 2011 6 2010 Knight et al. 2011 Blanchard O. and F. Giavazzi 2003 Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods And Labor Markets Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 3 879-907. Cai F. and M. Wang 2008 A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China China & World E- conomy 16 1 51-65. Cai F. 2008 How Far Is China Towards Its Lewisian Turning Point United Nation University UNU-WIDER research paper No. 2008 /09. Folta T. A. Cooper and B. Yoon-suk 2006 Geographic Cluster Size and Firm Performance Journal of Business Venturing 21 2 217-242. Gomes L. and K. Ramaswa 1999 An Empirical Examination of the Form of the Relationship between Multinationality and Performance Journal of International Business Studies 30 1 173-187. Harrison A. 2002 Has Globalization Eroded Labor s Share Some Cross-Country Evidence UC Berkeley mimeo. Islam N. and K. Yokota 2008 Lewis Growth Model and China s Industrialization Asian Economic Journal 22 4 359-396. Knight J. and S. Li 2005 Wages Firm Profitability and Labor Market Segmentation in Urban China China Economic Review 16 3 205-228. Knight J. 2007 China South Africa and the Lewis Model United Nation University UNU-WIDER research paper No. 2007 /82. Knight J. Q. Deng snd S. Li 2011 The Puzzle of Migrant Labour Shortage and Rural Labour Surplus in China China

2011 6 45 Economic Review forthcoming. Kuijs L. 2005 Investment and Saving in China World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3633. Lewis A. 1954 Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor. The Manchester School 22 2 139-91. Lewis A. 1972 Reflections on Unlimited Labor in L. Di Marco ed. International Economics and Development New York Academic Press. Lin J. G. Wang and Y. Zhao 2004 Regional Inequality and Labor Transfers in China Economic Development and Cultural Change 52 3 587-603. Minami R. 1968 The Turning Point in the Japanese Economy Quarterly Journal of Economics 82 3 380-402. Minami R. and X. Ma 2008 The Turning Point of Chinese Economy Compared with Japanese Experience Hitosubasi University mimeo. Stock J. and M. Yogo 2005 Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression in D. Andrew and J. Stock ed Identification and Inference for Econometric Models Essays in Honor of Thomas Rothenberg Cambridge Cambridge University Press. Wu Z. and S. Yao 2003 Intermigration and Intramigration in China A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis China Economic Review 14 4 371-385. Xin M. and N. Bai 2007 How Much Have the Wages of the Unskilled Workers in China Increased Data from Seven Factories in Guangdong in R. Garnaut and L. Song ed. China Linking Markets for Growth Canberra Asia Pacific Press. Zhang K. and S. Song 2003 Rural-urban Migration and Urbanization in China Evidence from Time-series and Crosssection Analyses China Economic Review 14 4 386-400. 2008 8 16 28 2005 2 11 16 2007 7 4 14 2011 1 86 93 2005 4 3 689 706 2007 8 2009 GDP U 1 70 82 2005 6 2 10 2005 1 10 17 2008 9 2007 6 50 56 2003 8 28 35 2010 9 12 2001 8 51 54